All placed selections came in yesterday and the 2 I had reservations about were unplaced
200 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Devil You Know, 5/1 Tagseed, 13/2 Peper Harow, 8/1 Trading Nation, 9/1 Doc Jones, 12/1 Bridge Note, Island Legend, 14/1 Rainy Night, 16/1 Miss Porky, 20/1 Hello Sunshine, Miss Pusey Street, 25/1 Brynfa Boy, 33/1 Alis Aquilae, Princess Soraya, 50/1 Bold Hawk, Cavitie, 100/1 Davana.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Market confidence behind interesting debutant Tagseed would catch the eye but he lacks the experience of the promising DEVIL YOU KNOW, who made a pleasing introduction here and will relish this longer trip.[ |
Why is Ryan Moore not at Chester - is this a sign? 17 runner maiden though 1.55 to place
215 CHESTER
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although Group-race finishes such as these would normally be given ready preference, there are question marks over exactly what Big Bound and Drumbeat have achieved, and it might be worth searching somewhere else. Four of the rest bring obvious prospects of improvement and slight preference is for GITANO HERNANDO, who stayed on so well to get the better of a good scrap at Doncaster. |
8 runners down to 7 but look at the betting forecaster - outsider at 12/1 indicates competitiveness.
The Ballydoyle horse is favourite and well backed into odds on - is this a reaction to Ballydoyle's strong Chester form thus far?
Draw over 1 mile 2 should not be a concern as seen with Harbinger.
Very competitive race as you can see in the form columns 1.25 to place and still 3 places
230 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Habaayib, 8/1 Let It Rock, Tartufo Dolce, 10/1 Ramamara, 12/1 Monte Mayor One, 16/1 Fenella Rose, Hachi, 25/1 Bookiesindex Girl, Pursuit Of Gold, 40/1 La Fortunata, 50/1 Micky´s Bird,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The 2.00 should indicate whether there is any bias in the draw. There are a few newcomers with possibilities and the betting should be informative but HABAAYIB sets a decent standard on her Newmarket debut third and looks sure to make a bold bid.[FC] |
Although not as pronounced as Chster, obviously, as Spotlight points out, the draw is important here too
6 horses are non runners. Again 2/5 in the market based on one solitary 3rd place is hardly conclusive against 7 debutants who, of course, could be anything.
Faith must be put in the live market being an accurate reflection of the likely performance of these newcomers.
5 furlong maiden and T OShea on board who worked so well with Tactic yesterday 1.1 to place
245 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Frozen Fire, 5/1 Buccellati, 7/1 Enroller, 8/1 Tastahil, 12/1 All The Aces, 16/1 Scintillo, 20/1 Numide, 50/1 Doubnov.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Irish Derby winner Frozen Fire is obviously the form pick at this level, and by some way, but his 3yo season was not one of consistent achievement. If he slips up, the one to take advantage may well be BUCCELLATI who demonstrated his wellbeing when chasing home Tartan Bearer and Pipedreamer at Sandown |
1st and 2nd remain as does Scintillo who can hopeflly be discounted
Very interesting as a probability race
YES, still 3 to place
Frozen fire 1.06
Buccelati 1.18
All the aces 1.32
Scintillo 1.97
335 NOTT
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SAY NO NOW produced a fairly decent level in two juvenile starts and she could take some beating if translating that ability to grass on this return. Market support for the nicely bred I See Nice Sea would put her firmly in the equation.[BDO] |
2 2nd for the fav and an element of the "hard to beat" about Spotlight. Existential won yesterday as a hard to beat selection.
2 runs have been on the all weather so caution for turf debut in this 9 runner maiden.
Ted Durcan on board and I like him 1.22 to place
345 LING
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Winged Harriet, 11/2 La Belle Dane, 7/1 Arrivederla, 8/1 Truly Asia, 10/1 Sparkling Crystal, 16/1 All Spin, Fat Chance, 20/1 Play It Sam, 25/1 Arteus, 33/1 Quasi Congaree, 50/1 Royal Adelaide.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Truly Asia and La Belle Dane are both interesting newcomers but if WINGED HARRIET can reproduce the form of her two runs last season, they will need to be very useful to lower her colours. |
Not another!! Yes a price gapper whose last run was October 2008 1.19 to place
400 CHESTEr
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Balaagha, 11/4 Massilah, 4/1 Miss Tango Hotel, 10/1 Bella Rowena, Viva La Vida, 14/1 Riley Queen Bee, 16/1 La Marseillaise, 25/1 Aphrodite´s Rock, Bicksta, Jeannie, 33/1 Moneysupermarket, 66/1 Diamond Jo, 100/1 Liberty Estelle, Miss Dee Lady.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BALAAGHA's second at Newmarket three weeks ago looks the best performance on offer among this field, with Massilah and Miss Tango Hotel the standout dangers |
Evens in the live market but a big field here.BUT only 3 horses under 20/1 so should we focus, naturally, on the top 3 in the betting?
The Hills posse are involved in the front 2. 1.25 , 1.62, 1.61 the front 3 to place
Fav drawn in 12 but no mention at all of any draw concerns with Spotlight
410 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Barynya, 4/1 Kinetix, 6/1 Barter, 10/1 Rockabout, 20/1 Penzena, Queen Martha, Soho Secrets, 33/1 Course De Diamante, 50/1 Aine´s Delight, Court Wing, Ela Gorrie Mou.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to look beyond the nicely bred BARYNYA, who created a favourable impression on her Newbury introduction and should be up to winning this. Money for either of the interesting debutants Barter or Kinetix should be noted.[BDO] |
Fav now battered into 1/3 for the dependable Stoute/Moore combo. I always like to see such price shortening between betting forecast and live market
Yet again, only the one run , albeit in this year. 1.09 to place
420 LING
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Mackten, 3/1 Little Calla, 5/1 Crystal B Good, 12/1 Theologist, 14/1 Peak, 25/1 Diamond Dee, 33/1 Richardlionheart, Risky Lady, Vigorosa, 66/1 Supreme Glimpse.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little Calla may do better now upped to 7f and is respected, but MACKTEN caught the eye at Folkestone on his debut and with that run behind him, he could prove hard to beat in what looks much the weaker of the two divisions.[PSm] |
Hard to beat selection again. 1.21 to place
435 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Empowered, 11/4 Red Merlin, 5/1 Buddhist Monk, 15/2 Aphrodisia, 9/1 Aureate, 25/1 Bowder Stone, 33/1 Admiral, Birkside.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Empowered is well ahead of the handicapper but looks opposable at likely short odds given his unproven stamina. A decent case can be made for Red Merlin but the value could be BUDDHIST MONK who, although not straightforward, is another who comes here in good form.[FC] |
8 runner race and as you saw yesterday ,these are always worth tackling from a place only perspective.
3 horses are 25/1 or bigger and can hopefully be discounted, leaving 5 running for 3 places.
Empowered is evens in places and Jonny Murtagh rides for Willy Haggis. BUT this is a handicap shortie and of course handicaps ,by default, are competitive 1.28 to place
515 WEXFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Aristocrat, 4/1 Silent Decision, 11/2 Galileo´s Choice, 8/1 Delorento, 14/1 Beat The Boss, 20/1 Muscati, Nawshewisnae, 40/1 Jaegamister, 50/1 Roseska.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It isn't often that you get a horse rated 104 in a maiden at Wexford and there's no reason to oppose ARISTOCRAT. |
"hard to beat" selection and Aiden O'Brien horse. Yielding to soft at Wexford,
9 runners, 4 at 25/1 or bigger
Ballydoyle look like they want to get a win into this one and it is a surprise, as SPotlight says, to see the horse here. Those with glass half full and take this as a great opportunity to back a Ballydoyle horse in a race where he looks to be head and shoulders above 1.07 to place
600 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Sainglend, 4/1 Little George, 7/1 Mayor Of Kilcock, Singing Wizard, 20/1 Turtle Spirit, 25/1 Alan´s Legacy, 33/1 Haveyoubeen, Nomadic Warrior, 66/1 Barathea Blazer, Linda´s Theatre.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should be a straightforward task for SAINGLEND, who has easily the best form and shapes as though this trip will suit. Hurdles newcomer Little George may be the main danger. |
Price gapper here , 3 horses are 50/1 or bigger, Sainglend ran in a class 1, group 1 last time out and this is class 4 1.15 to place
610 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Rock Of Love, 7/2 Dower Glen, 4/1 Olympic Ceremony, 6/1 Valantino Oyster, 7/1 Midnight Uno, 10/1 Charity Fair, Dispol Kabira.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An ordinary-looking maiden. Olympic Ceremony is a likely newcomer for last year's successful stable, but Rock Of Love and DOWER GLEN should have benefited from their debut experience and could prove the pick.[FC] |
Not a price gapper and only 2 places, but why, even this early on, is Rock of love evens? 1.52 to place
810 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: Evs City Affair, 9/2 Paradise Bay, 7/1 Little Rocker, 10/1 The Accordion Man, 14/1 Clever Nora, Mr Goofy, Takotna, 20/1 Caraman, Lazzari, 66/1 Stormy Bay.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for CITY AFFAIR to post his first victory in this type of race. He's a consistent sort at about this trip on a sound surface and is taken to beat Paradise Bay. [R |
Not out of the first 2 in last 4, this price gapper looks consistent.Hunter chase and professional jockey is replaced by Rhys Hughes ( who?) 1.17 to place but illiquid market
820 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mo Mhuirnin, 11/4 Apache Ridge, 7/2 Just Mustard, 8/1 Bootleg, 10/1 Asserting, 33/1 North South Divide, Waltzing Buddy, 50/1 Your True Love.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: bApache Ridge and Just Mustard remain relatively unexposed and are bred to win better races, but preference is for MO MHUIRNIN, who is best in at the weights and looks well worth a try over this trip. |
A race of 2 halves
3 horses are 20/1 or bigger, one is 66/1
Bootleg at 7/1 is the fly in the ointment against the top 3 priced 11/10, 5/2 and 7/2
Fav placed consistently over 5 furlongs - this is 6 tonight 1.18 , 1.28, 1.55 to place the front 3 highly illiquid market
830 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Alpha Tauri, 3/1 Midnight Fantasy, 7/2 Reject, 6/1 Diamond Blade, 10/1 Monsieur Harvey, 25/1 Choree, 50/1 Cry Of Truth, 100/1 Pennine Rose.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An ordinary maiden and interesting to see if the money comes again for Reject who looked very much in need of the experience when well backed on his recent Pontefract debut. However, the drop down to sprinting looks sure to suit ALPHA TAURI and he may be able to make his greater experience tell |
Another 8 runner race and a strong odds on fav here with runs under his belt. Concern with T Queally riding as he is the usual Barney Curley " LETS LAND A GAMBLE or lets make sure this one is unplaced so we can land a bigger gamble once the mark is reduced" jockey but riding for Henry Cecil this time!
3 are under 10/1.
2 are 50/1 or bigger
1 is 25/1
Leaves 5 adn 3 places 1.16 to place
FOOTBALL
| 16:00 | Brasov vs Farul Constanta | 1/4 |
| 19:45 | Mervue United vs Sporting Fingal | 6/1 | 11/4 | 2/5 |
SHORTLIST
230 NOTTINGHAM - Habaayib is 1.1 to place, showing extreme confidence market wise, the betting forecast 4/6 is now 2/5. Reduced field makes life easier.9 runners and only 3 under 20/1.
245 CHESTER - 4 runner race and Betfair is STILL paying out on 3 places. Unbelievable
Frozen fire 1.06
Buccelati 1.18
All the aces 1.32
Scintillo 1.97
Can we discount this Scintillo?AN original 16/1 shot when the race had a full compliment, is now 12/1 in a 4 runner race.
whether we can discount him is key, because it's the difference between 1.06 for Frozen fire and 1.32 for All the aces!
Buccelati has beaten Scintillo already and at 1.18 is inbetween the shortie and the longish-ie
Hes also the choice of Spotlight and perhaps might be worth a gamble just to beat Scintillo
410 NOTT - Barynyna has been battered in the live market - a signal in itself? 1.09 to place
515 wexford -aristocrat is only 1.07 to place
600 AINTREE - Saingland has been running in better company and has been very consistent -1.15 is reasonable
830 RIPOn - alpha tauri is 1.16 to place and looks good
ONE A DAY
would have been 245 CHester but its now down to 3 horses so if youre quick it's literally free money!1.01 for a horse to finish a race!
A real pity as this was my one a day race by a country mile with Buccaletti my choice at 1.18
230 NOTT - Habaayib at 1.1 would be solid enough for me.
At bigger price, 600 Aintree- Sainglend at 1.16
A real pity that the 245 Chester was not 4 runners for long
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