I did mention the Bordeaux game was likely to be tight and a tough foought victory, and hey presto 1-0!
The Finnish 3rd division 1/10 shots won by, can you guess?, 3 goals as predicted.
Thank God I'm back dating Mystic Meg!
RTE showed the Guineas and an interview with Aiden O'Brien which swayed me towards a place back of Mastercraftsman. Again flexibility and the ability to make a decision based on new information ( here the extreme confidence of one of the finest judgers of a horse there is was enough for me!)
It's relegation Sunday and you'd have thought there would have been some bettable opportunities but I cannot think of any off the top of my head and will investigate further.
200 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Benhego, 11/4 Buck Mulligan, 7/2 Red Lancer, 50/1 Dawn Wind, 100/1 Holden Caulfield, Lough Beg, Merlins Mate, Obrigado, Tchang Goon.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BENHEGO was entitled to be a bit novicey on his debut here but still had the talent to get the job done and looks to have the makings of a fair hurdler. Buck Mulligan wouldn't be coming over for merely a day out and could prove a bigger danger than Red Lancer.[AWJ] |
A good start to the day with 4 horses at 66/1 and one at 33/1, one at 8/1, one at 11/4 and one at 2/5
Purely a 3 horse race ( at a push) ,we can even whittle it down to a 3 horse race and 3 to place
205 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Changingoftheguard, 7/2 Eytarna, 5/1 L´Impresario, 8/1 Blue Ridge Lane, 10/1 Amazon Queen, 14/1 Pebble In A Pool, 20/1 Cape Spice, 25/1 Awani, Morning Time, 33/1 Paintmaker, Sam Spudhead, Ufallya.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD is unlikely to be ideally suited by the testing conditions, but the son of Montjeu is still difficult to oppose |
Back to the genius of Ballydoyle and as I've mentioned he did it with MAstercrafsman and we have another Ballydoyle hot pot here " difficult to oppose" and I wouldn't argue with that. I must say though that watching the coverage there was a lot of talk about the heavy ground but it would seem this fav is favoured by the ground and the live betting suggests few real opponents with only 3 under 14/1
230 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Heir To Be, 4/1 Santera, 5/1 Cruise Director, Perlon, 10/1 Shanahan, Skipper´s Lad, 20/1 Son Of Erin, 50/1 Code, Sriology, 100/1 Ar An Shron.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Heir To Be, Santera and Cruise Director are the obvious contenders but PERLON could be interesting with less weight if waited with over this longer trip.[AWJ] |
Interesting non runner in the provisional 3rd fav here reduces field to straight 8, 3 to place.
2 horses are 40/1 or bigger reducing the competitive field further. Heir to be is strong at the head of the market in a race where only 4 are under 12/1
315 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Cruchain, 7/2 French Saulaie, 9/2 Eleazar, Tisfreetdream, 5/1 Othermix, 12/1 Signs Of Love, 16/1 Federstar, 25/1 Premier Bleu, 50/1 Blackanblue, 100/1 Chief Lady Olwyn.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some useful hurdlers vying to make their mark as a chaser and the pick of them could be TISFREETDREAM, who's best run over hurdles came here and who should make it over fences judged on breeding. Cruchain and Eleazar complete the shortlist.[BDO] |
Only 6 remain so hopefully still 3 places and if so, any one selection must beat 3 to place and that includes a big priced outsider! 3/1 the field originally tells you this could be tight but yet again this is another 50/50 race - pick a horse and hope 3 don't beat him!
350 UTTOX
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Rio De Janeiro, 4/1 Gold Gun, 5/1 Fishguard Filly, 13/2 Share Option, 8/1 First Boy, Fortification, 16/1 Classic Chic, 25/1 Baarrij, 66/1 Timetoring, 100/1 Tarabela.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RIO DE JANEIRO should have plenty going for him for his new yard, with Fishguard Filly perhaps his most reliable opponent, though First Boy could be ready for a return to hurdles.[EMW] |
price gapper would be interesting but for the conditional jockeys seeling hurdle race type!
440 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Euston Square, 4/1 Adoring, 9/2 Big Heart, 11/2 Pumpkin, 6/1 Summers Target, 10/1 Regeneration, 14/1 Diktat Queen, 33/1 Millers Crossing, 100/1 Rafta, Samba Mirander, 200/1 Soldier Soldier.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Support for either Adoring or Big Heart, well-bred fillies making their racecourse debuts, should not be ignored, while Pumpkin represents a top yard and is another possibility but the safest option is EUSTON SQUARE, who has fairly useful form to his name and may be capable of a little better.[DH] |
A fav with good enough credentials in a maiden race- 2 runs this past 2 months and both 3rd places in biggish fields.
Only 4 horses under 20/1 should help his place only cause?
FOOTBALL
More must win cases today
| 13:00 | Celtic vs Hearts | 2/9 |
The 2/9 then is based on incentive to win
| 15:30 | Rijeka vs NK Cibalia | 1/4 |
Rijeka have a home record of 12-1-3 (W-D-L)
Cibalia have an away record of 1-4-11 (W-D-L)
Contrasting home and away form here. LAst head to head was 1-0 win. Looks a prospective game which is priced correctly
NOTE I have left out the Swiss games as the league is so small that teams can cause shocks
| 16:00 | Esbjerg vs FC Copenhagen | 7/1 | 10/3 | 4/11 |
Since November 8th, Copenhagen have won 15 and lost 4 so they don't do draws!
Home tem have lost at home against 2 of the top 3 2-1 showing they can be competitive (the 3rd of those top 3 teams they play today of course)
| 16:00 | Arsenal vs Stoke City | 1/3 |
| 19:15 | Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Zagreb | 3/10 |
Zagreb have an away record of 5-2-9 (W-D-L)
Although this is a derby , home team have been banging in the goals and beat them 4-1 in Coratian cup ( albeit perhaps weakened sides fielded?)
| 19:15 | Panathinaikos vs PAOK | 4/11 |
Mention must be made of Chelsea 4/5 at Sunderland - could be a big price a the end of the match?
SHORTLIST
Well it's only 1235pm and 1st race at 2pm and it is a Sunday so no rush. Will be back on at 115pm. You will have noticed a lot of non runners due to ground most probably. Maybe some more in the interim? Could open up some great probability bets
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