27/5

the St

I think a few others sniffed out Avon Valley yesterday as the price collapsed to an unbackable 1.05 - unless you're happy taking that price - it does represent far too greater a risk for minimal reward. El Dececy continued with another win when dropped into class 6 seller company
IRELAND - I have said before it's the graveyard of the odds on shot especially when the ground is heavy.
Granted, the 3 I put up all placed, BUT 2 lost. I would suggest for those looking at laying odds on shots that Ireland is the place to go .
Another thing to learn - we cannot really trust once out 2 year olds to replicate their initial promising run - I speak of Safari Special who didn't place in a 6 runner race paying 3 places. Hence Avonvalley -with 3 placed runs, was far safer at a very poor price.

210 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Kalam Daleel, 5/2 Ginger Grey, 6/1 Evergreen Dancer, 7/1 Lairy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KALAM DALEEL will be hard to beat after his encouraging debut, though Ginger Grey will ensure it's no cakewalk.[PJ]

No sooner had I wrote the above then another one time out 2 year old is dangled temptingly infront of us!
Now 1/2 ( I like o see shorter than betting forecast price - it conveys maret confidence) - this 4 horse race sees an outsider at 12/1 and 2 places. Will 2 horses really beat the hot pot?
1.14 to place is quite high for a 2/5 shot but tells us this is only 2 places and these are 2 year olds

240 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Fantastic Dubai, 5/1 Safari Guide, 7/1 True Decision, 15/2 Flamsteed, 8/1 Hand Painted, 12/1 River Dee, 16/1 Blackwater Fort, Tarruji.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There was talk about sending FANTASTIC DUBAI (nap) to the Greenham Stakes after his maiden win and connections will be disappointed if a mark of 72 proves the limit of his ability. He can strike at the expense of Safari Guide and True Decision.[SR]

Price gapper in a class 5 0-75 handicap ( prefer a class 6 0-60 for a solid system bet) these price gappers perform well as place selections. 8 runners down to 7 now and 3 places still on betfair
NOTE - safari guide at 11/4 has tightened the price gap in the live market 1.36 to place

250 CARTMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Quivvy Bridge, 3/1 Eastern Surprise, 7/2 Artic Dream, 6/1 Lake Wakatipu, 8/1 Dree Hill, 20/1 Solway Ally, 33/1 Carrosa Rose, 100/1 Dec Approved, Foxy Nell, Obara D´Avril, Sophisticated Lady.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It wasn't exactly a step forward when beaten in modest company at Killarney last time but QUIVVY BRIDGE nevertheless sets the standard and the stable took this two years ago. It's odds-on an Irish-trained winner, with compatriots Eastern Surprise and Artic Dream heading the dangers.[AWJ]

The trainer of the fav employed AP yesterday and employs Choc today in the hope of losing the maiden tag. Head of the market though looks tight.
Only 4 horses under 12/1 should indicate those we should concentrate on. 1.24 for the fav to place

410 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Strike The Deal, 3/1 Mutheeb, 5/1 Valery Borzov, 8/1 Eisteddfod, Matsunosuke, 10/1 Tamagin, 12/1 Diriculous, 20/1 Nota Bene.

The front 2 are popular at the moment. A class 3 conditions stakes event means all horses are good. Valery is coming off the back of an impressive recent win at a similar price The fav is solid in the market at 6/4 with 2nd fav 9/4. Again we face the dilemma of which to pick as it is naive to expect both to finish 1-2 ( although it would make my job a little easier) 1.25 and 1.42 the front 2 to place

435 CARTMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Zabenz, 5/1 Thunder Hawk, 8/1 Dr Hellier, 10/1 Hasper, Waynesworld, 20/1 Oaklands Luis, Shraden Edition, The Sneakster, Tinarana Lord, 33/1 My Wee Woman, Shafts Chance.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ZABENZ will take some stopping in this company with a clear round and if handling the course. Thunder Hawk may prove the most troublesome.[AWJ]

He would take some beating wih 11 runners. Well now there's 7 runners so surely he should have a better time of it? But why just evens then ? Thunder HAwk at 3/1 is breathing down his neck.
3 miles 2 furlongs perhaps tells us why evens!
Last 2 races - faller and unseated rider. Has Miss K Hobbs onboard ( presumably trainer's daughter?) - I'd prefer to see a professional though 1.33 to place in an illiquid market -price could rise

800 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Saif Sareea, 9/2 Just Waz, One Cool Day, 6/1 Flaming Cheek, 13/2 Bailey France, 12/1 Lucky Pearl, 25/1 Shower Of Hail, Trevira, 33/1 Amarillo Slim, Mnason, Ravenscar, 50/1 Esquillon, Go Commercial, The Little Chancer, 100/1 Haru, Runon The Hill.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SAIF SAREEA was a good deal better than plating class when last seen and probably wouldn't need to be fully wound up to make a winning return at this level with Tony McCoy to assist.[BDO]

Last seen in 2007 so quite obviously the horse hasn't decided to go off and see he world then come back to racing.
Drop to class 5 selling company for his return and the booking of the Champion Jockey -this could be a way to ease him back in with a win, OR get a run into him withou much concern for really winning the race.
We can look at it both ways and he live market nearer the off is likely to provide some clues. 1.63 in a market that is yet to get going.

FOOTBALL

17:00

Kvik Halden FK vs Stabaek

16/1

8/1

1/14

Norwegian cup and 1/14 away from home usually signifies a win by 3 goals or thereabouts.
Markets on betfair are terrible. Over 2.5 goals is 1.32 with £84 only on it. This market would interest me if my suggestion about 3 + goals for 1/14 sides is correct.
Pity there's no money in the markets for this game as it would interest me as an alternative to more tricky maidens and selling hurdles

BARCA V MAN UTD
CAn we get a bet out of this game? Too close to call of course and perhaps this indicates a glut of early goals?
We have seen BArca struggle with premiership opposition. Somewhat frustrating for them that Prem clubs don't roll over as easily as their Spanish counterparts.
Barca won't have met a defensive unit like United with headless chickens Fletcher, Park and Tevez a welcome nuisance.
Asians - Man Ud +1 goal is 1.23 -enticing giving United a goal start given the above argument?
The site of the correct score 2 market is very interesting. Betfair only usually put it up when they expect one team to score 4+ goals.
Laying 0-10 minutes in the first goals market at 7 is the equivalent of backing a 1.15 shot
Laying Leo Messi first goal scorer at 9.6 is the same as backing a 1.11 shot - I expect Evra o serve it to him this evening
LAy Barca/Barca half time/full time at 5.6 is the same as backing a 1.21 shot
Under 4.5 goals is 1.14

SHORTLIST
210 BRIGHTON - Kalam Daleel for Channon is priced to win but as I have mentioned, a 2 year old having only his 2nd run at this new track in a 5 furlong maiden gives us plenty of reasons to oppose.
BUT, at 1.14 can we make an argument to place back.
4 runners - 50/50 race again. Will 2 others beat this one?14/1 outsider and a debutant and 2nd fav has Frank on board. Can we discount the 14/1 horse which leaves only 3 running for 2 places
I stand to be shot down in flames after my mention of 2 year old 1 time outers
A bit of a monkey on his sole start, unshipping rider at the start, the hope is that initial pleasing run will be replicated

240 BRIGHTOn
the same trainer/jockey combo on Fantastic Dubai , a shd winner and nose 2nd in last 2 starts - was a price gapper in a low handicap and they usually place, 1.36 here to place in an 8 runner race reduced to 7. So 4 to beat to place. 2nd fav has come for support and has 2 2nd places recently and reduces the price gap in the live market
Brighton is known as a unique track - some horses take t it, others don't. That is a concern with this and the first race.

435 CARTMEL
1.36 to place and "the class act" in the field who'll be "hard to beat" Most of his races have been in class 1 and class 2 but concern in this hunter chase is his fall and unseat last 2 starts ( albeit in far more competitive races than this)
3 miles 2 with an unknown lady jockey does not fill me with confidence but the confidence of Spotlight does

17:00	Kvik Halden FK vs Stabaek	16/1	8/1	1/14

Very interesting match and as you see by the screenshots, very interesting to me and NOONE ELSE it would seem!
1/14 usually signals 3+ goals and the 1.32 over 2.5 goals should increase during the day. 1.12 currently for the win
This is a Norwegian cup game so I don't know how serious they'll take this so a risk there, but the last 1/14 away shot won 7-0

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Man Utd +1 goal at 1.23 on the Asians is interesting especially if we look at Barca versus prem clubs recently
Lay Barca/barca half time full time is good as is
FIRST GOAL ODDS 0-10 minutes lay ( here level stakes backers would include their lay stake as liability.See jpeg

ONE A DAY
Personally I will be getting involved in the Staebeck match
As a rock solid bet, well the 21o Brighton sees a 2 year old having only 2nd run with an extra furlong so is not rock solid
240 BRighton fantastic Dubai - price gapper in a low handicap and these tend to be trustworthy and at 1.36 is a very good price to beat 4 to place. 2nd fav a slight niggle as he has been backed too.
I return then to the football match as my one a day alas but the lack of liquidity may mean that you won't get a competitive price. 1.12 for the win looks the rock solid one a day bet for me at 5pm.
If you wanted a gamble then fantastic dubai at 1.36 looks decent enough in the hope that the price gapper in a lowly handicap system continues to get placed horses.
If any of the Champions League bets take your interest then go with them. Man Utd should prove great opponents for Barca and I woould side with a lay of Barca/Barca half time/full time as my selection in this.
As ever the choice remains yours -good luck