210 YARM - a race I'll dismiss with England's move still there at 1pm. 2 year olds novices so there could be an upset despite he likely market leaders being the ones who should place
240 YARM - will be shortlisted
420 AYR - for the shortlist
450 AYR - dismissed as only 2 places and looks competitive enough despite likely improvement in the market principle
540 YARM - must be shortlisted
605 SANDOWN - dismissed as competitive enough handicap over middle distance and a fav not run since September 2008-the trainer is the only one who knows how this one feels
620 LEOP - Alfred Nobel - 2 runs in him and a possible Ballydoyle improver likely to lose maiden tag sooner rather than later
635 SANDOWN -shortlisted - look at the screenshot and note the perceived outsiders - Monsieur Chevalier is a talking horse - bigged up in the paper - only 3 under 10/1
710 sandown - shortlisted
735 NEWC- dismissed - maiden fillies and debutants
800 LEOP - dismissed as only 2 places despite very very good jockey/trainer combo
SHORTLIST
240 YARM
1.13 for Anjomarba. included as a " hard to beat " selection, " head and shoulders" above this opposition. - you would hope so in a 2 year old class 6 seller for feck's sake!! The race type should sound a note of caution but I was taken by Spotlight's extreme confidence and the price gap. If there are better alternatives than a 2 year old class 6 seller, then they must surely take precedence!
420 AYR
Sirvino is 1.52 to place and this should immediately raise alarm bells regarding his likely running today. If they breach 1.50 and they're 7/4 in the win only market, this is generally a sign that these horses are not as likely to win as the winonly odds would suggest. For that reason, not a one a day for me despite a very alluring price for one 2 lbs well in and on a four timer
540 YARMOUTH
Old faithful - price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap and these are as regular as a dieter on all bran and prune juice.Cwm Rhondda is a avery eyecatching price gapper 1.29 to place with 4 places.
I must say that eventually we will meet an unplaced price gapper in this kind of race - it is inevitable at some stage. Hopefully not today?
620 LEOP
Alfred Nobel selected as this is a Ballydoyle juvenile with 2 runs to his name already and expected to progress with each run 1.24 to place A toouch of odds on now, it must be noted there are a couple of debutants who could, worse case scenario, throw a spanner in the works.
635 SANDOWN
Monsieur Chevalier is 1.2 to place in an illiquid market but a look at the screenshot and we can make a case, perhaps, for reducign the comeptitive field?
This is a 2 year old class 1 listed event over 5 furlongs - the creme of the 2 year old crop and, from a negative perspective, 2 year olds are open to any amount of improvement with each race. BUT have we found a good un in Monsieur Chevalier - 3 wins in 3 runs , albeit in lower class NOT LISTED races but in fairness a lot of these youngsters have not run in listed company
710 SANDOWN
Paktai is 1.3 to place precisely because it is only 2 to place. One horse at50/1 , one at 25/1 and one teetering on 20/1 hopefully reduce the competitiveness of this race and give Patkai fewer horses to pass to place.
FOOTBALL
5pm start for the Norwegian Cup foottball today and 3 1/10 shots and a 1/14 shot surely mean a victory heads to the shorties?
Illiquid markets again. The game I would focus on would be the Rosenborg game away to Levanger -the only reason is that I recognise the name
Markets are rubbish but 1.24 half time/full time might interest. 1.1 the win is safest. 1.18 over 2.5 goals is some layer taking the piss to be honest. In such an illiquid market he's jus put up a price which is unaffected by market forces.
Silkeborg at 6pm look worthy of 1/6 favouratism having scored hatfuls recently. 1.19 relative to palce only horses looks great, BUT it's not in running
How about a betfair multiple on the 1/10 shots?
2 teams only, one at 1/14 and one at 1/10 produces a 1.18 bet which is perfectly reasonable in this odd world of one a day betting.There are other combinations too including the other very very short priced teams.
As with any one a dayer, it is a shock, generally, if they lose, and this will be the case here.
We are , though, betting blind given the fact that knowledge of the league and teams is minimal, BUT the advantage here is the ORsenborg game is in running so once they reach 1.01 ( which they should at 1/14 on) simply lay them at 1.01 to win £100 ( which is the multiples stake) - thus sacrificing £1 to protect multiple stake
ONE A DAY
540 YARMOUTH Cwm Rhondda is a price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap and at 1.29 represents great value given it's 4 places.
Will the 16 runners be this one's downfall?
620 LEOPArdstown Alfred Nobel at 1.24 should allow another place only opportunity with natural progression,
BUT my one a day is going to be the football multiple today on the teams in the screenshot. The matches are on at 5pm, so hopefully Rosenborg will have this game wrapped up by half time.
If so, then Rosenborg should reach 1.01 at some stage as they are in running
We should see 1.01 on he lay side at some stage, in running if, as expected, Rosenborg are winning. Then, lay at 1.01 for £105 stake and this will cover your £100 multiples stake in case the other 1/10 shot somehow lose.This will leave a net profit of £17 to £100 stakes. I might even include a 3rd 1/10 shot in the multiple, safe in the knowledge the Rosenborg game is in running.
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