31/5

Bari won 4-1, Riggins won, Falling Angel placed and louis Saha decided to feck about and score an early goal which meant all was not as calm as I first thought, but after 90 minutes, 2-1 final score was UNDER 3.5 goals so job done

210 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Fly Silca Fly, 11/4 Flyinflyout, 100/30 Perle D´Amour, 9/2 Secret Queen, 5/1 Nina Rose, 33/1 Carries Lass, 50/1 Ishipink,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Probably not the strongest of maidens but tricky for all that with little to choose between the Mick Channon-trained pair Flyinflyout and FLY SILCA FLY on form and a trio of newcomers from good yards taking them on. Fly Silca Fly, who might have come up against an above-average newcomer at Newcastle, is preferred

8 down to 6 runners here - another 50/50 race wit 2 at 20/1+, surely the new fav, Secret Queen has a great palce chance. BUT she is a debutant and so are many others NOTE - only 2 to be placed (it is always important to look at this on betfair) so a no bet race for me. I would only have been interested with 3 places

450 PERTH

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Safari Adventures, 2/1 The Rocking Dock, 3/1 Hollows Mill, 10/1 Jordan´s Light, 14/1 Putitawayforayear, 16/1 Mr McGonagle

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SAFARI ADVENTURES could be tough to peg back round here, with a soft lead not out of the question. The Rocking Dock and old boy Hollows Mill should make it interesting.[AWJ]


4 runners now including the original 14/1 horse. Safari si well thought of by SPotlight and seemingly has 1 to beat to place as long as he doesn't fall, unseat or get pulled up. THe prices are certainly tempting aren't they if you fancy a gamble in what looks a 3 horse race, but the head of the market is tight and the front 3 cannot really be separated. 1.5 is enticing for a gamble and a decent return!





500 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Dort Tranquille, 100/30 The Donserelli, 5/1 I´Ve Been Framed, Kaladan, 10/1 Nether Stream, 16/1 Sierra Del Plata, 25/1 Irish Symphony, 33/1 Generous Jarmen, Tarashan, Time War, 50/1 Attrapeur, Friendship Bay, 66/1 Dashing Patriarch, Patiently,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Kaladan has potential and he might well have had the edge taken off his freshness by his Ludlow run two weeks ago but the well-bred Nicky Henderson newcomer DORT TRANQUILLE is of definite interest on paper.[EMW]

McCoy/Henderson combo on the fav, now odds on but not run before so a risk involved and a short priced based solely on reputation it woould seem 1.21 to place - the market sees McCoy's mount here as a good thing

FOOTBALL
Inter 4/9 v Atalanta.
Lost 3-1 to Atalanta at their place, but Mourinho teams do not lose at home! BUT nothing at all to play for, this is a dead rubber game Laying Atalanta at 9 for £100 is the same as a 1.11 bet. This hinges on the Mourinho home record with Porto, Chelsea and now Inter Milan - they don't lose at home
Genoa 4/11 v Lecce - Lecce look down and 3 points can't really help them. 3 points for Genoa though could put them in with a chance of European football if Fiorentina lose and Genoa score 3 + goals
Bolgna 1/4 v Catania. Bologna must win, they are above the relegation zone on goal difference only. Catania are safe and have nothing to play for.
Saltzburg 1/4 v Altach. Have not scored less than 2 in all home games. Have won all bar one match at home.
Altach have conceded 8, 4, 3 against top 4 sides away from home and look doomed regardless of result here 3 points would leave them equal 2nd bottom but 7 goals goal difference may be too much
Sporting Gijon 3/10 against Huelva
3rd from bottom v bottom side. Sporting need to win to give them a chance of getting out of the relegation zone ( depends on how Osasuna do-the goal difference between the 2 is far too great so Osasuna have to lose to give Sporting a chance) Huelva are down it would seem so will have zero motivation
Sporting have won their last 2 so they're trying. Huelva has been good against bottom 5 sides so expect some nailbiting
Levski Sofia 1.1 to win. HAve an excellent home record scoring bundles and should have no problems but the price does not allow for "problems!"

SHORTLIST
A poor day from my perspective today with not many price gappers at all. THe 450 Perth should involve the front 3 horses ( 2 to place) and a risk could be taken at the prices expecially for compounders (target profit per dayers) because 1.5 means you only stake 2 times your compound target profit so if it goes tits up, then no problem. I would opt, for the sake of making a decision, on the live market leader at the off to place and hope the outsider runs like an original 14/1 shot, the fav does not fall ,unseat, or get pulled up. Safari Adventures at the moment 1.5 at the moment.
As far as level stake backers are concerned, this is perhaps a more risky bet but the return is still enticing. The problem here is that the front 3 are tight at the head of the market and Safari was only chosen based on being a slight favourite.
Levkia Sofia are 1.1 to win
Laying atalanta are the same as a 1.11 back
ONE A DAY
If we're looking for Falling Angel type probability bets or Riggins type price gappers then there aren't any today. It's an official no bet day for me today, but the shortlist does contain the best of what I could find. Will Mourinho's phenomenal home record continue in what is a dead rubber match?
Will the 450 Perth involve the front 3 with the favourite NOT beaten by 3 (I will do this for compounding because stakes are only double the target profit given it's a 1/2 bet so for my compounding article I will go with Safari Adventures to win my target profit. Level stakes players will perhaps find this a little risky but your return is great given the odds .
Good luck with your choices. The Italian and Spanish matches feature season long poorly performing sides who are suddenly expected(because they NEED a win) to produce the goods. My argument here is how reliable will these sides be .They're at the botom for a reason!!
The compounding bet is one I am not going to lose sleep over as any potential losses are minimal and will be included in my monthly compounding round up.

30/5

Birkside placed yesterday in a great probability race where he only had the one to beat to place and that one horse was the outsider who was not confident in the market

205 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Royal Rock, 4/1 Dandy Man, 5/1 Hoh Hoh Hoh, 7/1 Percolator, 10/1 Anglezarke, Fullandby, 14/1 Captain Gerrard, Peace Offering, 16/1 Reverence, 20/1 Ialysos, 100/1 Foxy Music.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is very hard to keep the faith with Dandy Man even though he is now tried blinkered and is back down in Listed company, and ROYAL ROCK (nap) has a much more appealing profile. The way he travelled over 6f on his return here three weeks ago suggested he would have no problem coping with the pace over the minimum trip and there is plenty of room for new faces at the top of the sprinting tree.[AC]

Well backed fav and a price gapper in the live market. Has had a recent run and an impressive win last time out.This is a class 1 listed race so a slight step up in class but the market seems to think he will cope well.
As ever, all horses in class 1 listed are obviously talented 1.43 to place

210 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Dunaskin, 11/2 Realism, 7/1 Birkside, Gross Prophet, 10/1 Nawamees, Teasing, 11/1 Nosferatu, 12/1 Benedict Spirit, Bridgewater Boys, Trip The Light, 14/1 Vicious Warrior, 16/1 Edas, 25/1 Saxona, 50/1 Oddsmaker.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DUNASKIN, beaten less than 5l into fourth in last year's November Handicap, deserves a crack at this confidence-boosting level. Birkside may be the one to beat if turning out again.

Birkside won yesterday and is a non runner. He won yesterday so Dunaskin's price could indicate a reasonable run?
Has been running in class 1 and class 2 races so this is a drop in class to claiming company 1.73 to place

220 GOODWOOD

BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 High Standing, 9/2 Shifting Star, 6/1 Earlsmedic, 8/1 Osiris Way, 10/1 Phantom Whisper, Seamus Shindig, 12/1 Peter Island, Rash Judgement, 14/1 Drawnfromthepast, Major Eazy, 25/1 Kerrys Requiem, Little Edward, 33/1 Benllech, Elhamri.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both HIGH STANDING and Shifting Star are interesting sprinters for this year but in particular there was a lot to like about the selection's win for his new yard at Doncaster and he is even less exposed than Shifting Star.[EMW]

High standing at 7/4 is well backed but this is a big field. Has won 3 under Spencer ( yeh I know!)
1.61 to place
230 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Alrasm, 5/1 Big Audio, 7/1 Key Breeze, 10/1 Public Service, The Caped Crusader, 14/1 Branderburgo, 25/1 Desert Forest, Thinking, 33/1 Camacho Flyer, Petrocelli, Rigid, 66/1 Another Grand, Island Express, Nolecce, 100/1 Sandy Toes.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALRASM has an obvious chance judged on his clear second at Newbury. Big Audio is expected to show the benefit of his debut experience and can get in the money, while the betting should give an idea of the threat posed by the newcomers, among whom Public Service and The Caped Crusader are the most interesting.

Russian roulette this one as we saw yesterday - one time out short priced maidens either perform great or, like yesterday, don't place. What will it be today? 1.14 to place

305 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Main Aim, 4/1 Beacon Lodge, 11/2 Tariq, 6/1 Arabian Gleam, 10/1 Asset, 14/1 Atlantic Sport, Garnica, Laa Rayb, 33/1 Royal Confidence, Welsh Emperor.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Stoute colt Main Aim has started favourite for all his starts and is likely to be highly popular here to following his demolition job of handicappers at Newbury a fortnight ago. However, he faces a much harder task against these proven Group-race performers back up in trip and preference is for TARIQ, one of the best 7f performers around in 2007 but not tried over this trip since.[AC]

11/10 now -not performed in group company ye but very good last run. 1.4 to place

420 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Falling Angel, 3/1 Babylonian, 100/30 Sweet Sonnet, 11/2 Jeanie Johnston, 14/1 Venture Girl, 33/1 Mrs Jones And Me, Perfect Blossom, 66/1 Tagula Pearl.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Babylonian and Sweet Sonnet are respected as well-bred newcomers from powerful yards but they could have problems matching strides with FALLING ANGEL who showed plenty of speed when second on her debut and looks sure to improve.[FC]

8 down to 6 runners here. Falling angle again has had the one run and is 13/8 fav. Now, only 3 to beat to place with 2 horses at 25/1 and 33/1
Yet again this is another one time out 2 year old against a lot of debutants 1.11 to place and 6 runners and 3 places

540 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Riggins, 6/1 Mujood, 7/1 Cape Hawk, 10/1 Overturn, 12/1 Isphahan, 14/1 Dubai Dynamo, 16/1 Prince Of Thebes, Vainglory, 20/1 Traphalgar, 25/1 Classic Legend, 40/1 Resurge.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Two runs in the same season, let alone two in two weeks, is something new for RIGGINS but a chance is taken that he will live up to his earlier promise following the debacle of his turf debut at Newmarket. He took a keen hold early on but it was the lack of a way through that killed off his chance and, although he was never anywhere near the leaders, he gave the impression he was full of running. Mujood and Cape Hawk are the most solid options among the remainder.[RA]

Price gapper here -last run can be ignored so the Racing Post says as he did not get the openings.
Change of jockey to Dettori here in the hope the horse can give his running. He is very well backed to return to winning form today 1.25 to place

630 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Calypso Bay, 3/1 Mooteeah, 8/1 Morning Sir Alan, Stellar Cause, 12/1 Vivachi, 14/1 Secret Life, Sirjosh, 20/1 Dream On Connie, M´Lady Rousseur, 33/1 Sanctum, 66/1 Captain Flack, Wise Princess,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Calypso Bay sets the standard on his debut effort but he was a bit disappointing at Chester last time, even allowing for a wide draw. He may well prove too good for these rivals, but MOOTEEAH shaped with encouragement on her debut over 7f and, over a trip more in keeping with her pedigree, she can get off the mark at the third attempt.[PSm]

only 4 under 12/1.
Calypso BAy is odds on here despite unspectacular form 1.22 to place in an illiquid market

750 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Trading Nation, 9/2 Tender Charm, 7/1 Chandika, Tarqua, 12/1 Medicean Man, 16/1 Eyes Like A Hawk, New Leyf, 20/1 Femme De Fer, Fiftyfourth Street, 25/1 Bertie´s Birthday, Der Rosenkavalier, 40/1 Quinsman, Santefisio, 50/1 Kuanyao, Lord Fidelio, 100/1 Iron Man Of Mersey.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TRADING NATION (nap), a half-brother to the stable's very useful 7f-1m winner Fifteen Love, looks likely to stay further in due course but the form he showed over 6f on his reappearance sets a clear standard and he can go one better. Tarqua is one of the more interesting newcomers

Odds on shot here after 16/1 2nd place last time out. 1.2 to place

FOOTBALL
Rangers look interesting at 1/3 for the double this season. It is a one off match though but they have completed the double over Falkirk this season.

Chelsea v Everon today has seen 2 0-0's between these teams already this season. 1.62 for under 2.5 goals and 1.25 for under 3.5 goals looks enticing. But, again, this is a one off game

Because of the time of the season the other matches are difficult to solve. St Etienne ,for example, are 4/11 to beat Valenciennes 11th against 18th (the 18th are St Etienne!)
They must need the win to stave off relegation, hence the price against a team in mid table mediocrity
Bari v Treviso - top v bottom and 1.24 to win. They MUST win as they are only 2 points ahead at the top of the league. Have always beaten the bottom 7 sides well.
Have beaten Treviso already 2-0. I expect a similar scoreline

I can't understand why Grossetto are 1.16 to beat Frosinone as their recent form is poor.The away team have won 4 and drawn 2 of their last 6 . More of a lay surely at 1.16 than a back!



SHORTLIST
A difficult day wher, in some cases, we face the conundrum of 1 time out maidens installed as price gappers and odds on shots.
420 YORK - Fallen Angel is 1.11 to place in a 50/50 race -6 runners and 3 places. A tricky race as he's one of the horses mentioned above
540 GOODWOOD
Riggins could be forgiven his last run. A clear price gapper here the market expects a swift return to form and at 1.25 this is a good place price with Dettori on board. If he avoids traffic problems then he should return to good form
Under 3.5 goals is 1.25 for the FA Cup Final, and this looks appealing, and we can also manage our positions in running.
Bari are similarly priced to beat reviso who are all but down BUT Bari still have great incentive to stay at the top of the Italian Seria B
ONE A DAY
The horse racing today comprises of horses short priced based on one run in the maidens, or going up in class in listed races
The shortlisted races both look good. Riggins is a bit of a gamble in the hope he returns to the great form of his runs prior to the nightmare race last time out
For me, my one a day will beChelsea v Everton under 3.5 goals in the hope recent 0-0 head to heads can be replicated.
The best race for me looks to be the 420 York just from a probability perspective -will Fallen angel be beaten by 3 other horses in a 6 horse race - 2 of which are 25/1 and 33/1?
God luck whatever you choose

30/5

Birkside was not beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race and placed at 1.28 (won in fact) -1.20 at the off. A great probability bet. 2of the maidens yesterday unplaced at odds on. It just goes to show that it is very much russian roulette with these maidens who are odds on shots and apparent good things not only for the place but for the win too
Today I am going to start with the footy as there are the usual opportunities for a Saturday and these are not time sensitive..

15:00

Rangers vs Falkirk

2/7

They win this, they have the double and can rub Celtic's noses in it.Looking at form is not really worthwhile for one off Cup Finals Top v bottom of the league here and Rangers completed the double over them this season.
The fact they are going for the double could be reason enough to back perhaps?

16:00

Legia Warsaw vs Ruch Chorzów

1/4

16:00

Wisła Kraków vs Śląsk Wrocław

1/5

2 polish shorties both at home.
Legia Warsaw have a home record of 11-3-0 (W-D-L)
Ruch Chorzow have an away record of 3-4-7 (W-D-L)
Last 5 head to heads have been under 1.5 goals.
looking at home and away form, the differences between the teams does not lead me to believe the home team should be 1/4

Home team have a home record of 12-1-1 (W-D-L)
Away team have an away record of 3-8-3 (W-D-L)
Wisla have drawn 1 and won 6 of last 7, scoring 8 in last 2 matches
3 wins and 1 draw in last 7 away for away side is not bad, but I don't think they have met a team of Wisla's capabilities.
Looks the better of the Polish games to me

20:00

St Etienne vs Valenciennes

4/11

11th versus 18th in the league BUT the 4/11 side are the ones 18th in the league! BUT they NEED desparately to win to avoid relegation. Valenciennes have nothing to play for and seem to be away draw specialists with 10 away draws which is just what St Etienne need ......NOT!
The 4/11 then must be an INCENTIVE bet I think.
Not a game I can place any faith in at all given the above.

Most of the matches left don't seem to involve teams with any incentive to win, their prospective league positions meaning nothing much

FA CUP FINAL
Well the consensus among many is for under 2.5 goals in this game.
Under 2.5 goals is 1.62
Under 3.5 goals is 1.25 which is relative to the average place only bet

The under 3.5 goals certainly gives some leeway regarding trading and the buffer of both teams having to score 4 goals in the game.
Head to heads in the league have been 0-0 which is very encouraging for unders backers.

29/5

Both teams in the multiple won by the odd goal in 10. Cwm Rhondda was superb ,winning as a price gapper in a 0-60 class 6 handicap, and Alfred nobel progressed as expected for Ballydoyle to win

200 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Lochan Mor, 4/1 Sweet Possession, 12/1 Chantilly Jewel, 16/1 Ivy The Terrible, Quasi Congaree, 20/1 Expensive Dinner, 33/1 Athboy Auction, Thoosa, 50/1 Shirley High.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sweet Possession is respected on the pick of her form but she'll do well to trouble the less exposed LOCHAN MOR, who shaped with plenty of encouragement when going close in a stronger Doncaster maiden.[BDO]

1 /2 in the betting forecast is 1 /4 in the live market, and all this based on one run again! Only 2 under 20/1 and guess who's on board. The only person who can get a 1/4 shot unplaced ( see 30th April 2009 - Thomas Baines) 1.24 to win, 1.05 to place - not for a Spencer ridden horse -NO WAY MISSUS!

245 HAMILTON

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Imperial Sword, 9/2 Jonny Ebeneezer, 13/2 Joyeaux, 10/1 Miss Daawe, Top Bid, 12/1 Sunley Sovereign, 14/1 Andrasta, 16/1 Dalarossie, Lake Chini, 25/1 Gelert, Highland Warrior, 50/1 Howards Prince.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There's plenty going for the in-form course winner IMPERIAL SWORD (nap), who escapes a penalty for his latest ready Haydock success and remains unbeaten when partnered by Jan Wilson.[BDO]

Not the same as Cwm Rhondda but a price gapper in class 4 handicap 1.53 to place. Perhaps I am too stringent with this 1.50 rule as Sirhor won well at 1.50 to place yesterday

320 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Visions Of Johanna, 9/4 Heroes, 5/2 Birkside, 5/1 Ozone Trustee.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pick of these capable performers looks to be VISIONS OF JOHANNA, who quickly developed into a bright prospect last year and can build upon an encouraging first run for his current yard.[BDO]

4 down to 3 so of interest from a probability perspective

430 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Reject, 7/2 Rogalt, 9/2 Raffanetti, 6/1 Deraaya, 8/1 Crime Writer, 14/1 Beaumont Princess, 20/1 Istiqdaam, 25/1 Trade Price, 66/1 Tarus,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: William Haggas has a good strike-rate on this track and looks to have found a decent opportunity for REJECT to make it third time lucky. Rogalt and Deraaya are the pick of his rivals on form with Raffanetti the most interesting of the newcomers.[AC]

one non runner in Lowther - I suppose trainer doesn't mind as he came in at 100/1 yesterday!
Fav now odds on with quite a price gap in he live market. A maiden with 2 recent runs . 1.18 to place

630 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Wade Farm Billy, 7/1 Definite Style, 8/1 Give Me A Chance, 10/1 Dashing Bach, Richard The Third, 14/1 Buck The Trend, 20/1 Elegant Olive, Ski, 25/1 Johnny Be, Musical Weld, 50/1 Grey Dasler, Midnight Spirit, 100/1 Miss Zigzag.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is a case of now or never for WADE FARM BILLY from a punting perspective as he boasts by far and away the best form and, back on a right-handed track, there can be no excuses.[AWJ]

That's some price gap! Not quite as big in the live market and Wade Farm is NOT odds on in the live market. 1.34 to place in an illiquid market

700 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Catch The Stars, 9/2 Alecia, 7/1 Mystic Storm, 14/1 Pharaon De Touzaine, That´s An Honour, 20/1 Just Silver, 100/1 Corax, Marado, Paul Superstar.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Very few with realistic claims and form pick CATCH THE STARS appears to be sitting pretty with Tony McCoy signed up. Alecia can lead the chase.[AWJ]

Has the right guy on board if contemplating the shortie to place. 1.16 to place

740 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Admin, 7/2 Shakespearean, 10/1 Green For Luck, Victoire De Lyphar, 12/1 Il Forno, 14/1 Confessional, Tamanaco, 16/1 Abandagold, 66/1 Usquaebach.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The betting should help point the way with the newcomers - among whom Shakespearean appeals most on paper - but there was a lot to like about ADMIN's debut third at Goodwood and he may know too much at this stage.[FC]

Now odds on the fav, but plenty of debutants and another fav well backed based on a sole run 1.17 to place

910 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Decision, 2/1 Devotion To Duty, 6/1 Sanctuary, 9/1 Gold Maha, 14/1 Tesserae, 20/1 Cottonfields, Saxona, 25/1 Oke Bay, 50/1 Carsington, Sleepy Silver, 66/1 Nouailhas.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Devotion To Duty has one piece of form that would give him every chance but he is not the most consistent, unlike \DECISION (nap), who has posted several solid displays and ran a blinder in a 0-105 handicap last time. The others have a fair bit to find.[SR]

Solid enough form for the fav here but this is yet another maiden race - only 3 debutants though and the form of 3-2-2 looks like Decision is getting the hang of it 1.12 to place

SHORTLIST
Spencer on a 1.05 shot - you're having a giraffe!
320 HAMILTON

Take a look at the screenshot again. 2 of these horses will place, but which 2?
Birkside the live favourite? Brikside the shortest priced horse to back?
Visions of Johanna? The betting forecast favourite?
Ozone trustee? Hmm originally 5/1 outsider and still 4/1 in the live market.
A good probability race and it's ge a pin out , back one of the 3 and hope the fecker places.


630 TOWCESTER
Wade farm billy at 1.34 based solely on the price gap. I don't like Towcester and would prefer flat over jumps races as there are no obstalces in the former

700 TOWCESTER
Catch the stars has AP McCoy in the plate. Again Towcester is the negative. 3 of the 9 runners are 66/1 or bigger reducing the competitive field to 6, 3 to place so it's a sort of 50/50 race.
1.16 over the jumps

910 HAYDOCK - Decision is 1.12 to place and has the placed form in the book for this maiden race.

ONE A DAY
320 HAmilton looks he best probability race of the day. It's always a risk with 3 runners that the outsider can be more competitive. As things stand, it looks a decision between Birkside and Visions of Johanna
I'll go with Birkside myself -although this is a bit of a gamble given it's a claimer
Fingers crossed

28/5 update

Such a wealth of possibles, I hope final decision making will pick the one that delivers, be it the football again or the horses. Again 1/10 and 1/14 shots away from home worth close consideration if only to enhance the odds with an over 2.5 goal play?
210 YARM - a race I'll dismiss with England's move still there at 1pm. 2 year olds novices so there could be an upset despite he likely market leaders being the ones who should place
240 YARM - will be shortlisted
420 AYR - for the shortlist
450 AYR - dismissed as only 2 places and looks competitive enough despite likely improvement in the market principle
540 YARM - must be shortlisted
605 SANDOWN - dismissed as competitive enough handicap over middle distance and a fav not run since September 2008-the trainer is the only one who knows how this one feels
620 LEOP - Alfred Nobel - 2 runs in him and a possible Ballydoyle improver likely to lose maiden tag sooner rather than later
635 SANDOWN -shortlisted - look at the screenshot and note the perceived outsiders - Monsieur Chevalier is a talking horse - bigged up in the paper - only 3 under 10/1
710 sandown - shortlisted
735 NEWC- dismissed - maiden fillies and debutants
800 LEOP - dismissed as only 2 places despite very very good jockey/trainer combo

SHORTLIST
240 YARM
1.13 for Anjomarba. included as a " hard to beat " selection, " head and shoulders" above this opposition. - you would hope so in a 2 year old class 6 seller for feck's sake!! The race type should sound a note of caution but I was taken by Spotlight's extreme confidence and the price gap. If there are better alternatives than a 2 year old class 6 seller, then they must surely take precedence!

420 AYR
Sirvino is 1.52 to place and this should immediately raise alarm bells regarding his likely running today. If they breach 1.50 and they're 7/4 in the win only market, this is generally a sign that these horses are not as likely to win as the winonly odds would suggest. For that reason, not a one a day for me despite a very alluring price for one 2 lbs well in and on a four timer

540 YARMOUTH
Old faithful - price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap and these are as regular as a dieter on all bran and prune juice.Cwm Rhondda is a avery eyecatching price gapper 1.29 to place with 4 places.
I must say that eventually we will meet an unplaced price gapper in this kind of race - it is inevitable at some stage. Hopefully not today?

620 LEOP
Alfred Nobel selected as this is a Ballydoyle juvenile with 2 runs to his name already and expected to progress with each run 1.24 to place A toouch of odds on now, it must be noted there are a couple of debutants who could, worse case scenario, throw a spanner in the works.

635 SANDOWN
Monsieur Chevalier is 1.2 to place in an illiquid market but a look at the screenshot and we can make a case, perhaps, for reducign the comeptitive field?
This is a 2 year old class 1 listed event over 5 furlongs - the creme of the 2 year old crop and, from a negative perspective, 2 year olds are open to any amount of improvement with each race. BUT have we found a good un in Monsieur Chevalier - 3 wins in 3 runs , albeit in lower class NOT LISTED races but in fairness a lot of these youngsters have not run in listed company

710 SANDOWN
Paktai is 1.3 to place precisely because it is only 2 to place. One horse at50/1 , one at 25/1 and one teetering on 20/1 hopefully reduce the competitiveness of this race and give Patkai fewer horses to pass to place.

FOOTBALL
5pm start for the Norwegian Cup foottball today and 3 1/10 shots and a 1/14 shot surely mean a victory heads to the shorties?
Illiquid markets again. The game I would focus on would be the Rosenborg game away to Levanger -the only reason is that I recognise the name
Markets are rubbish but 1.24 half time/full time might interest. 1.1 the win is safest. 1.18 over 2.5 goals is some layer taking the piss to be honest. In such an illiquid market he's jus put up a price which is unaffected by market forces.

Silkeborg at 6pm look worthy of 1/6 favouratism having scored hatfuls recently. 1.19 relative to palce only horses looks great, BUT it's not in running

How about a betfair multiple on the 1/10 shots?
2 teams only, one at 1/14 and one at 1/10 produces a 1.18 bet which is perfectly reasonable in this odd world of one a day betting.
There are other combinations too including the other very very short priced teams.
As with any one a dayer, it is a shock, generally, if they lose, and this will be the case here.
We are , though, betting blind given the fact that knowledge of the league and teams is minimal, BUT the advantage here is the ORsenborg game is in running so once they reach 1.01 ( which they should at 1/14 on) simply lay them at 1.01 to win £100 ( which is the multiples stake) - thus sacrificing £1 to protect multiple stake






ONE A DAY
540 YARMOUTH Cwm Rhondda is a price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap and at 1.29 represents great value given it's 4 places.
Will the 16 runners be this one's downfall?
620 LEOPArdstown Alfred Nobel at 1.24 should allow another place only opportunity with natural progression,
BUT my one a day is going to be the football multiple today on the teams in the screenshot. The matches are on at 5pm, so hopefully Rosenborg will have this game wrapped up by half time.
If so, then Rosenborg should reach 1.01 at some stage as they are in running
We should see 1.01 on he lay side at some stage, in running if, as expected, Rosenborg are winning. Then, lay at 1.01 for £105 stake and this will cover your £100 multiples stake in case the other 1/10 shot somehow lose.
This will leave a net profit of £17 to £100 stakes. I might even include a 3rd 1/10 shot in the multiple, safe in the knowledge the Rosenborg game is in running.

28/5

Thank God for one bet a day as my choices for the Barca game didn't account for Man Utd not turning up!
The Staebeck game - yes - another victory by 3 goals for a 1/14 shot. 4-1 final result. Easy match odds win and 1.31 for over 2.5 goals was enticing. - it is amazing how often 1/14 shots win by 3 clear goals so a covering of 3-0, 3-1, 4-1 wouldn't be at all bad! I only backed it with £34 TO WIN A tenner.
Looks like I had nothing to worry about in Brighton as the fav won with ease and Fantastic Dubai placed again for the price gapper in a lowly handicap.

It's too early to start the horses so I'll do the footy first

17:00

Levanger vs Rosenborg

16/1

8/1

1/14

Another 1/14 away from home and another Norwegain Cup game. I have heard of Rosenborg who should be far too much for this home side. Should we expect over 2.5 goals again here?
1.1 to win in the match odds market
1.18 for over 2.5 goals
1.24 for half time/full time but this market not formed
Game is in running which should ensure greater liquidity nearer the off.

17:00	Mjolner vs Bodo Glimt	12/1	7/1	1/10
17:00	Stalkameratene vs Tromso	12/1	7/1	1/10

17:00

Roa vs Lyn

12/1

7/1

1/10

More Norwegian Cup games and 1/10 for the away side should signify an easy win? I am going purely by odds of course as I know next to nothing about Norwegian football or which teams the shorties will put out.

18:00

Silkeborg vs Skive

1/6

5/1

13/1

Danish first division match
Silkeborg have a home record of 7-5-1 (W-D-L)
Skive have an away record of 2-4-7 (W-D-L)

home team have won their last 7 home and away and scored 3 or more in 5 of those matches - full of goals it would seem
2 wins in last 3 for Skive - signs of recovery after a long losing run?
Both wins have come at home and away form sees them struggle
Not in running - concern that winning streaks end eventually - head to heads - 11 goals scored against Skive in last 2 head to heads in the back end of 2008
1.2 to win NOT IN RUNNING

NOTE - I must admit I like European early round cup games as the odds really are reflective of chances and we normally expect goals. Note, though. that the first half can be tight. I thought my overs bet was a goner yesterday with 1-0 for the 1/14 side half time - but the goals came in the 2nd half and this is probably expected given the gulf in class and perceived improved fitness later on in the match?

210 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Niran, 2/1 King Of Axum, 3/1 Brisbane, 16/1 Excellent Guest, 20/1 England.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There should be better to come from King Of Axum and Brisbane, neither of whom performed to market expectations last time, but NIRAN is probably the one to beat in a tricky race.[FC]

Had the look of a 3 runner race about it but why is England ( a debutant) at 7/1? A sign the horse is quietly fancied perhaps?

240 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Anjomarba, 6/1 Scilly Breeze, 7/1 Mary Helen, 9/1 Arken Lad, 20/1 Val´s Princess, 25/1 Fairys In A Storm, Our Georgie Girl, 33/1 Micky´s Bird, Saachi´s Vision, 66/1 Minnie Rocket.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There are possibilities about the newcomers, especially if they attract support, but ANJOMARBA is head and shoulders above those who have raced and must be hard to beat down in grade.[FC]

A 2 year old seller only for those with steel plated underwear. A price gapper though and a hard to beat candidate. Read Spotlight's extreme confidence here " MUST be hard to beat"
Market looks essential here given the ages of the horses.
Marked drop in class for this 2 year old who has a fair few runs under his belt which is ideal really if contemplating backing a 2 year old
Only 4 horses under 20/1 at time of writing hints that there are no market movers lurking at this stage

420 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sirvino, 9/2 Fujin Dancer, 7/1 Hillview Boy, Inspector Clouseau, Shy Glance, 10/1 Summer Gold, 14/1 Applaude, Masterofceremonies, 25/1 Scamperdale.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sirvino is the progressive one who is sure to go well under a penalty returned to a left-handed track (ran well at Nottingham last year) but a chance is taken with INSPECTOR CLOUSEAU, who is well handicapped on the pick of his form last year and he'll be interesting back over this trip if able to get an easy lead after an encouraging reappearance run.[RY]

On a four timer and we have to decide whether the horse has another good run in him or whether the winning sequence will end 9 as they do with multiple handicap winners) Spotlight offers a clue that the horse is 2lb well in so another good run for this price gapper expected today?

450 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lenny Bee, 7/2 Al Mugtareb, 5/1 Ingleby Lady, 6/1 Captain Ellis, Coleorton Choice, 10/1 Blown It, 25/1 Cool Art.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The most interesting runner here is LENNY BEE (nap), who has shown fair form on Polytrack, will be suited by the step up to this trip and who should have no problems with this different surface. He's open to bags of improvement and is taken to beat Ingleby Lady, who is better than she was able to show last time

4th fav a non runner should make life easier for the principles. Fav open " to bags of improvement" - placed last 3 occasions. Pity it's only 2 places in this race, although we can hopefully disscount Cool Art . Apart from him thogh, a tight market with 4 between 4/1 and 8/1 signfiying a typical competitive handicap

540 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Cwm Rhondda, 7/1 Mystic Art, 8/1 Viable, 9/1 Pretty Officer, 10/1 Desert Hawk, Sir Haydn, 16/1 Eagle Nebula, Generous Lad, Iceman George, Your Golf Travel, Zain, 20/1 Camera Shy, 25/1 Credential, 33/1 Lawyer To World, Strategic Knight, Usetheforce.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CWM RHONDDA (nap) has to be the pick after last week's thoroughly convincing win over C&D. Today's mediocre opposition is a major factor in her appeal and although various connections are chopping and changing with things like the trip and use of headgear, none are that persuasive. The main threat may emerge from Pretty Officer, Mystic Art or Viable.[RA]

After Fantastic Dubai's place success yesterday, here we have a 100% qualifier for the price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap, and that's quite a price gap too - no grey areas with this one as a qualifier!
Concern with the middle distance in such a big field - 16 runners but we WILL have 4 places on Betfair regardless of any late non runners (which are typical of this race as bookies will no doubt end up paying out 3 places with a late non runner)
5 length winner last time out under Jack Mitchell who rides today, horse is a course and distance winner ( I'm trying to build up more evidence to include as a selection!)

605 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Kensington Oval, 4/1 Serious Impact, 7/1 Pelham Crescent, 11/1 Dr Livingstone, Moves Goodenough, 12/1 Wiggy Smith, 14/1 Baylini, Constant Cheers, Saltagioo, 16/1 Mountain Pride, 20/1 Alfie Tupper, Sharpazmax, 25/1 By Command, Mafeking.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Michael Stoute had a treble at last Thursday's evening meeting here and can get tonight off to a good start with KENSINGTON OVAL who, being a brother to the stable's high-class performer Ask, is bred to be much better than his current rating of 85. A gelding operation since last season may have had a positive effect, as well as another year under his belt, and he could fulfil his initial promise this term. Serious Impact, another unexposed sort, is next on the list.[SB]

2nd fav a non runner has turned this fav into a price gapper in the live market.
11 runners and another competitive handicap over middle distances

Fav has not run since September 2008 which is a cause for concern to me

620 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Alfred Nobel, 7/2 Montecchio, 5/1 Cool Marble, Rosa Muscosa, 6/1 Bobbyscot, Boxing Day, 8/1 Days Ahead, 12/1 One Set, 50/1 Raging Spirit.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALFRED NOBEL, whose sire Danehill Dancer was responsible for last weekend's two Irish Guineas winners, looks set to open his account at the third attempt. The step up in trip should suit the Ballydoyle-trained colt who has managed to find a bit of trouble in running on both starts so far, when splitting Pilgrim Dancer and subsequent winner Love Lockdown over 5f on his debut at Naas, and when third to Atasari over 6f at the Curragh.\n

Ballydoyle juveniles usually improve for the run ( Alfred has had 2, both in the first 3). These decent runs have come on heavy and yielding. Will the horse improve for the good ground?

635 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Monsieur Chevalier, 3/1 Raine´s Cross, 7/1 High Spice, Star Rover, 14/1 Soccer, 25/1 Fratellino, 50/1 Mijas Playa, 66/1 Lees Anthem.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MONSIEUR CHEVALIER has done everything asked of him with something to spare and has strong claims in a race which his trainer has made a speciality of winning (successful three times in last seven years, eight times since 1992). Raine's Cross, whose Bath form has worked out very well, could give him most to do
Ods on in a class 1 must also be respected, but when it's a class 1 listed race, all horses are there on merit. 2nd fav is also popular as I write.
The straight 8 runners, so 3 places and only 5 to beat to place and a look at the screenshot shows a few that can be discounted if the prices are reflective of their chances?




710 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Patkai, 7/2 Geordieland, 7/1 Tastahil, 12/1 Fiulin, 14/1 Tungsten Strike, 33/1 Viper, 50/1 Bulwark.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good opportunity for PATKAI to make it three out of three over this trip and enhance his credentials for the Gold Cup. Geordieland does not find it easy to win but he is clearly one of the best stayers around judged on his seconds to Yeats in the Gold Cup in 2007 and 2008 and he is the most likely threat.[AC]

More high class action for a Thursday. Only 2 places alas but the betting forecast indicates perhaps 3 to focus on under 12/1.As I write, ( and it's 8+ hours before race time), 3 horses are 25/1 or bigger and Patkai retains odds on status.
This is a 2 miler staying event so the jockeys do play a big part in judging pace and timing so with only 2 places we need to get this right as ,again, all horses are there on merit regardless of price. Ryan Moore has won twice on this horse over the trip so this is a great positive.

735 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Lady Artemisia, 7/2 Charity Belle, 7/1 Mexican Jay, 12/1 Yashkur, 14/1 Flying Phoebe, 25/1 Flora´s Pride, Smarties Party, 33/1 Waltzalong, 66/1 Goswick, 100/1 Lady Anne Nevill.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LADY ARTEMESIA's narrow Salisbury defeat when well clear of the third looks good enough to win any average fillies' maiden, though confidence behind newcomer Charity Belle would be interesting, given her trainer saddled the selection's conqueror.[PJ]

Front 2 -price gap to the next. Maiden fillies and 5 debutants . Fav has had 2 runs this year which is always encouraging to see, but as ever, we simply have no idea regarding the newcomers' potential ability

800 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Alandi, 4/1 Hindu Kush, 9/2 The Betchworth Kid, 7/1 Donegal, 10/1 Suailce, Sublimity, 16/1 Merveilles.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALANDI is hard to oppose in his attempt to extend his unbeaten sequence to three.

"Hard to beat" selection has Eyebrows onboard for John Oxx and it's a formidable combination on fancied horses. Only 2 places alas

Plenty to ponder over today and as it's only 1120am, I can update an hour or so before racing (c 1pm)
As you saw yesterday, with one a day you live or die by your final decision and if I would have gone with any of my Champions LEague ideas I would have lost out! Similar today - many opportunities which look rock solid and the hope is that one will really stand out nearer the off.
Back at 1pm