1/1/10

Well what does the first day of 2010 hold in store, apart from the inevitable plink plink pfizz of Andrews Liver salts.
It is Saturday that is chock full of opportunities under both the football and horse racing.
Today sees lower league football, and a high class ( and naturally competitive ) card at Cheltenham.

The standout today is Punchestowns, a high class hurdler making his 2nd run over chase fences in a high class small field over Cheltenham fences that hold no prisoners.

31/12

NO BET TODAY

What a disappointment ,the only one from the shortlist to not come in - Rockys Pride, Man utd ( win and over 1.5 goals), Rangers win(and over 1.5 goals) and I go and choose a horse in a seller on the all weather!! Obe Gold was a very significant market mover in that race too, into 9/4 favouratism but I was unable to recount this information .

I hope you can see that a bet only loses because it is a bad decision on my part selecting the correct one a day from the "shortlist of the shortlist" Rangers scored 7, Man Utd scored 5, and Rockys PRide won , yet I chose, inexplicably, a horse who had not won since 2006, in a seller on the all weather!!

A very difficult day today with heavy ground at Tramore, a poor quality Lingfield card, and some potential at Punchestown but 2 selections of interest coming back from very long layoffs.

200 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Ghufa, 4/1 Shannersburg, 7/1 Acropolis, King´s Majesty, 10/1 Blushing Soul, Fantasy Ride, Playful Asset, 14/1 Midnight Bay, 16/1 Carr Hall, 33/1 Blakeneys Pet, Bollywood, Bright Wire, Mid Valley, 66/1 Maverick´s Magic.

DIOMED VERDICT: GHUFA (nap) is a regular winner in this type of event and is taken to beat Shannersburg.

Typical of today, a class 6 seller and we saw that these horses are simply untrustworthy.
A price gapper and on a hatrick. 1.38 Ghufa to place

215 PUNCHESTOWNS
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Beroni, 3/1 Farringdon, 9/2 Bahrain Storm, 5/1 Slievecorragh, 7/1 Dirar, 8/1 Rahan De Marcigny, 10/1 Art Sleuth.

Interesting race this one. Why is Ruby Walsh ( Mullins top jockey) NOT on the odds on Mullins horse Beroni, but on Farringdon?
Is this a tip for Farringdon perhaps?
The betting forecast bears no resemblance at all to the live betting market at time of writing - the live market sees only 2 under 10/1 1.31 Beroni and 1.71 Farringdon to place - only 2 places as this is a sub 8 runner race.

220 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Miss Overdrive, 7/4 Silver Kate, 8/1 Gentle Caribou, 9/1 Gilwen Glory, Raise You Five, 12/1 Queen Poline, 25/1 Jenny´s Gold, 28/1 Evella, 33/1 Jordan, 40/1 Saulty Max, 66/1 Bobbisox, 100/1 Byzantina Fair, Secret Gift, Silver Phoenix.

DIOMED VERDICT: This looks to be between MISS OVERDRIVE (nap) and Silver Kate. The last-named won in great style at Chepstow last time but ready preference is for Miss Overdrive in receipt of so much weight. My over cautious attitude yesterday meant I swerved races like this where 2 market leaders dominated -yesterday all of the races of this type saw the 2 market leaders place Here we see a race dominated by Miss Overdrive ( Thornton/King) and Silver kate. Only 4 horses in the live market are under 20/1 - the ones to concentrate on? 5 horses are 50/1 or over and can hopefully be discounted - leaving 6 fighting for 3 places ( or should that be just the 4 under 20/1 fighting for 3 places?) A penalty did not stop tito Bustillo yesterday and it is Silver kate who carries the penalties today ( on a hatrick today) 1.22 Miss Overdrive to place 1.3 Silver Kate to place Interestingly there are only 4 horses under 6.8 in the TO PLACE market, indicating that the 4 under 20/1 in the win market are the only considerations at time of writing. 345 PUNCHESTOWN BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Araucaria, 3/1 Perfectly Composed, 7/2 Lonesome Dove, 8/1 My Cool Lady, 10/1 Spare Shilling, 14/1 Haste Ye Bach, 16/1 Geneva Silver, Killegney, 25/1 Some Gem, 33/1 Miss Franklin. Only 3 horses are under 10/1 and only 5 under 20/1 - the ones to focus on? Another bumper so market consultation required ideally 1.23 Araucaria to place SHORTLIST As already mentioned, a difficult day today with heavy ground at Tramore, threatening Heavy at Punchestown, and soft at Warwick. Lingfield's card sees all bar one race at class 6 - poor quality fare. New Years day tomorrow will see a wealth of opportunities and a chance to pick something more solid than what is on offer today. From today's races above, here are my shortlisters 215 PUNCHESTOWN Beroni and Farringdon are the only 2 horses under 10/1 in the live betting in this handicap hurdle. What puzzles me is why Ruby Walsh is not on odds on Beroni, as he is stable jockey for Willie Mullins. Ruby is on Farringdon. NEGATIVES - only 2 places and handicap hurdles in Ireland tend to be a lot more open. If getting involved in this race, we must presume Beroni and Farringdon will both place - why? Well there's only 2 places. The Ruby conundrum!!! Why is he not on Beroni? Is he doing the trainer of Farringdon a personal favour? Does this indicate Ruby's thoughts on the merits of Farringdon v Beroni? Surely Ruby has first choice on Mullins horses in Ireland? 220 WARWICK Can we trust the live betting market which tells us this race should revolve around the 4 horses under 20/1 Miss Overdrive 11/8 Silver Kate 13/8 Gentle Karibou 5/1 Queen Poline 10/1 A nose 2nd in a class 3 2 mile 5 novice hurdle last time (this is class 4) augurs well for Miss Overdrive in receipt of weight from Silver Kate Heavy ground now at both venues in Ireland means preference makes the 215 Punchestown more dificult This leaves as default the 220 at Warwick. With only 2 races of interest, it means the pool to chose from is smaller. Miss Overdrive looks a good place contender but , as ever, we face the spectre of a fall scuppering the bet, and I dont want to potential of 2 losing days on he trot. The pool of bets to chose from tomorrow will be far greater, allowing a far better opportunity to get a rock solid bet, and begin a long winning run in 2010

30/12

ONE A DAY BET - 120 LINGFIELD - Sir Edwin Landseer TO PLACE ONLY (around 1.2)


ANALYSIS AND COMMENT
I wish I had been a little more cavalier yesterday - all horses won and Diamond Harry placed too

FOOTBALL
730pm Anderlecht v Zulte-Waregem - 1.44
Top v 5th and Anderlecht are unbeaten at home, BUT caution - but against the 3 top 5 teams they have played at home, they have won 1-0, 1-0, 1-1 - TIGHT GAMES!!
An 8 game winning streak preceded the recent draw .
Head to Heads - have beaten Zulte-Waregem away from home 2-0 which augurs well
1.19 under 4.5 goals here given the prevalence of tight home matches?

Zulte have only played one of the top 5 away from home, ,losing 3-1 to Club Brugge.
Away against other than top 5, they have drawn 4, won 2 and lost 2.

745pm - Portsmouth v Arsenal - 1.56 away
Pompey have lost against the 3 teams from the top 5 who have visited.Only wins against Wigan, Burnley and Liverpool ( the latter says more about Liverpool than Pompey's ability to beat the "top 4"
Arsenal away have lost to the 2 Manchesters and Sunderland and drew with West Ham (local derby) and Burnley ( good home record)
In good health coming off the back of 2 3-0 home wins. Pompey have managed 2 wins in 3 at home under Avram "interesting" Grant.
Could be a tough game for Arsenal this one. Cesc Fabregas the saviour of the last game may be an absentee.

745pm- Rangers v Dundee United -1.36 - an old firm side who belied 5/6 odds last time and beat a very in form Hibs side 4-1 , have now scored 19 goals in their last 5 games, 10 in their last 2, and 12 in their last 3 home games.
SO, we would want to see the strike force who have played in those games ,playing in today's ( if it is not called off)
At home, Rangers have only drawn 2,
Head to Heads -beat Dundee United away 3-0.
Dundee United HAVE NOT LOST away from home - and drew 1-1 with Celtic. United are 4th and against the top 6 sides they have played away, they have drawn all games - a coincidence or a certain tactic used away from home?
There is no getting away from the fact that Rangers are scoring freely. The last game saw a side who drew 1-1 with Rangers get mauled when Rangers came to visit (4-1)
1.23 over 1.5 goals looks reasonable given Dundee United have shown they can score away from home and Rangers are showing their strikers are in great form

745pm Man utd v Wigan - 1.22 - United have only lost one and drawn 1 at home
Head to heads - beat Wigan at their ground 5-0
United have only failed to score more than once goal twice
Wigan away to the top 5 they have played have been royally spanked 4-0 and 9-1.
Have only failed to score away twice
Goals tonight? Over 1.5 goals? 1.22 over 1.5 goals replicates the match odds market for Man Utd but ,ore importantly, involves both sides playing for us
Betfair indicates by the inclusion of the correct score 2 market and over/under 6.5 goals markets that it expects some goals

HORSE RACING
1240 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Dolly Penrose, 7/4 Asturienne, 6/1 Dot´s Delight, 12/1 Misstree Dancer, 14/1 Gan On, 16/1 She´s On The Case, Tara Isle, 25/1 New Mill Moll, Sordid Secret, 50/1 Floraline, Joking Aside, Mrs Overall, 66/1 Lethal Dream, Park Run.

DIOMED VERDICT: This may lie between previous winners DOLLY PENROSE and Asturienne, with preference for Dolly Penrose who was well suited by testing conditions on the Flat and won well on her hurdles debut at Exeter recently.

A mares novice hurdle. Only 5 under 16/1 here and 2 potential market overs in New Mill Moll ( currently 14/1) and Mistree Dancer
Diomed? Spotlight thinks this revolves around the front 2, and if considering a place only bet on these 2, we must assume both will place. Dolly Penrose is 1.3 to place and Asturienne 1.47 to place

110 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Tito Bustillo, 7/4 Spirit Of Adjisa, 10/1 Rock Celtic, 14/1 Akiem, Jadalee, 20/1 Clouseau, Dean´s Grange, Maggio, 25/1 Argentis, Art Man, Rigadin De Beauchene, Robain, 100/1 Chipless, Foot To The Flora.

DIOMED VERDICT: Spirit Of Adjisa shaped well on his hurdle debut and can make the most of the weight he receives from Tito Bustillo.

Only 2 horses under 14/1 here and Tito Bustillo is now odds on for Ruby Walsh and Paul Nicholls.Spirit represents King/Thornton, and barring accidents, these 2 excellent jumps combinations should dominate
Tito Bustillo is 1.15 to place, and Spirit is 1.29 to place. Significant conidence in Tito Bustillo to place mirrors the odds on status in the win only market
120 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Wotashirtfull, 3/1 Sir Edwin Landseer, 6/1 Charlie Delta, 8/1 Obe Gold, Secret Witness, 16/1 Sam´s Cross, 20/1 Peopleton Brook, Trip Switch, 33/1 Equinity.

DIOMED VERDICT: SIR EDWIN LANDSEER isn't entirely straightforward but this sort of company shouldn't be beyond him and he gets a tentative vote.

An interesting race - secret witness is a non runner leaving 8 runners and 3 places. Only 4 horses under 25/1 the ones to concentrate on?
This is a class 6 selling stakes so caution re race type
Wotashirtfull 6/4 and Sir Edwin 15/8 in places.

UPDATE - Wotashirtfull is a non runner now which surely makes life easier for Sir Edwin Landseer?
1.2 to place in a race where there are now 7 runners and still 3 places on Betfair - as mentioned above, Sir Edwin is in a seller for a reason, and it's not because he is closely matched in quality to Sea the Stars!! Bear that in mind. BUT from a probability perspective, an interesting bet, and with this latest news, a more compelling case to place back

230 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Rocky´s Pride, 15/8 Laurie Grove, 3/1 Hector Spectre, 12/1 Rock Me, 25/1 Kamanja.

DIOMED VERDICT: There is nothing between Laurie Grove and ROCKY'S PRIDE, who are both dropping to claiming level for the first time, and the latter is only marginally preferred.

With Kamanja and Rock me both 33/1 or bigger in the live market, this should involve 3 runners and 2 places. The front 3 are difficult to separate though at 11/10 , 5/2 , 5/2 so this becomes a pure prrobability race
Default to the favourite Rocky's Pride? 1.31 to place and chosen simply because he's the favourite. This is a lucky dip race - 3 horses effectively and 2 places - 2 will place, one will not - simple as that!!

305 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Shakalaka, 7/4 Zerzura, 11/2 Chanrossa, New Couture, 14/1 Big Nige, 20/1 Lily Eva, 33/1 Litenup, 50/1 Sacco D´Oro, 66/1 Set Em Up Mo.

DIOMED VERDICT: The quirky Shakalaka isn't the type that you'd want to take too short a price about. Henry Cecil's ZERZURA is an interesting newcomer and positive market signals would suggest that he may be up to the task.

A middle distance maiden race here, and again there are only 4 runners under 16/1 - will the race revolve around these 4, and if so, which one to chose to place?
Chanrossa is the market mover here ,slightly, into 3/1 in a market where Zerzura is 6/4 in places and Shakalaka seems on the drift to 9/4 ( 5/2 in places)

Zerzura is a debutant - faith in the market here? 1.35 to place with Shakalaka 1.5 to place

325 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Ramses De Marcigny, 5/1 Prince Of Denial, Shakalakaboomboom, 7/1 Spring Moon, 12/1 Regency Dreams, 16/1 So Ecstatic, 20/1 Cryptic Bert, Silver Dove, 33/1 Double Or Quitz, 40/1 Musical Wedge, 50/1 Joesgoldenscrumpy.

DIOMED VERDICT: This looks set for one of the newcomers, with the vote going to RAMSES DE MARCIGNY.

4 debutants and 6 who have only had the one run mean that the live market nearer the off is the ideal way to approach this bumper.
As I write, Ramses De Marcigny cannot be ignored as the representative of the Walsh/Nicholls combo, and Shakalakaboomboom is the early market mover 1.34 and 1.50 the 2 mentioned horses to place

355 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Owen Glendower, 7/4 Irish Airman, 9/1 Featherbed Lane, 10/1 Dolly Grey, 12/1 Lion On The Prowl, 16/1 Nehemiah, 20/1 Milandale, 25/1 Sherminator, 33/1 Inspector Qics, 50/1 Winter Warmer, 66/1 Aerospace.

DIOMED VERDICT: OWEN GLENDOWER bumped into a useful opponent at Southwell recently and can go one better.

Another bumper ,and you know the drill by now - market consultation paramount.
At this early stage, there are no real market movers here. Owen Glendower is now odds on as I write, and represents the excellent Barry Geraghty and Nicky Henderson combo.
Irish Airman is the Nicholls/Walsh horse.
Owen Glendower 1.16 to place - short price already and some 4 1/2 hours to the off.!!

SHORTLIST

745pm - Rangers' recent form cannot be ignored, neither can the amount of goals they have scored.
BUT Dundee United's ability to NOT LOSE away from home must also be accounted for.
That said, Rangers are in really good form, have beaten Dundee United away from home already (convincingly) and are scoring freely. Take them to win in the match odds market with a far safer over 1.5 goals bet (involving both sides)
745pm - Man Utd v Wigan - 1.22
A must win really for United. Over 1.5 goals at 1.22 involves both sides.
120 LINGFIELD - with the late absence of Wotashirtfull, surely this opens the race up to Sir Edwin Landseer, who was joint favourite? Cautionary note re race type - seller, but probability wise has a great chance of inishing in the first 3 in a 7 horse race where his nearest market rival was a non runner

230 LINGFIELD - another great probability race, and I've been doing well with them of late. A 3 horse race and 2 places, Rockys pride default selection as the favourite?

We are faced today with a number of top heavy markets - eg 2 horses clear favs with a price gap to the next ( eg 13/8 , 7/4 , 9/1 in the 355 Taunton)
At Taunton too, there are a few bumpers ( national hunt flat races) where the market nearer the off must be consulted ,and so it would be remiss of me to put up a bumper selection this early

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

120 LINGFIELD - I return to Sir Edwin Landseer in this race . If he runs as per his original price when Wotashirtfull was a runner, then he has a great chance of placing

745pm - Rangers have been in incomparible form in their last few matches - what impressed me more was 4-1 away to Hibs when priced at 5/6. Over 1.5 goals today given Dundee United's unbeaten away form ( also concern re the weather which has seen Celtic's game called off)

745pm - on a level playing field, Man Utd will always beat Wigan at Old Trafford - question mark regarding the defensive unit. Surely Gary Neville should be pensioned off by now? 1.22 over 1.5 goals rather than 1.22 an Utd straight win? ( although I suspect Man Utd will win)

NOTE - the Rangers and Man Utd games are both ideally suited to trading - ie laying off after Man Utd /Rangers take the lead. Although this is not a necessity, it is advised when you have the opportunity ( and both games are evening kick offs)

29/12

ONE A DAY 130 NEWBURY QUANTITATIVEEASING TO PLACE ONLY 1.11 AT TIME OF WRITING

ANALYSIS AND COMMENT

Leeds won yesterday 4-2 for the one a day bet. A nice big price ( for a one a day) was most welcome .
I have avoided Man City under Mancini but it looks as if they are solid enough to consider next time.
Again, from a horse racing perspective, all shortlist of the shortlisters placed or won which indicates that I am hitting the mark regularly.

From a footballing perspective the 2 premiership games are hard to get an angle into so it is just horse racing that I will be focussing on. Heavy ground at Limerick sounds a note of caution. Heavy rain expected at Newbury may turn the soft ground softer or heavy

1215 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Duellist, 5/1 Zubova, 11/2 Rathbawn Girl, 13/2 Exearti, 8/1 Bella Charlie, 10/1 Paintball, 66/1 Last Of The Ravens.

DIOMED VERDICT: DUELLIST is bred to be very useful but won't have to be anything out of the ordinary first time up to dispose of some modest opposition.

Again Fanning takes the ride for Johnston and won yesterday on Capricornus. A maiden debutant so faith in connections. Zubova is the mover here almost into joint favouratism and with a string of consistent 2nd places. Only 2 under 10/1
1.55 and 1.81 the front 2 to place tells you this is an open maiden

1220 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Voler La Vedette, 7/1 Silk Affair, 10/1 No One Tells Me, 11/1 Zarinava, 12/1 Rossdara, 14/1 College Daisy, Grangeclare Gold, Liss Na Tintri, 20/1 Gentle Alice, 25/1 Present Gesture, 33/1 Rio Alto.

Biggest price gapper of the day and "impossible to oppose" so says Spotlight in the Racing Post - is 2/5 in a listed race a hint in itself? 1.39 to win and 1.08 to place

130 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Quantitativeeasing, 5/1 Iolith, 6/1 Highest Start, 7/1 Ashfield´s Dream, 16/1 Smooth Classic, 20/1 Action Impact, Tail Of The Bank, 40/1 Gross Prophet, Oxford City, 66/1 Chestnut Ben.

DIOMED VERDICT: QUANTITATIVEEASING has been impressive in both his bumper and hurdling debut and he is expected to win again

"very much the one to beat" trigger words for this price gapper.
Very interesting stat
1.30 Nicky Henderson and Tony McCoy (Quantitativeeasing) show a fine 77% strike-rate (10-13) when teaming up at the course, returning a £30.46 profit
1.48 win and 1.11 to place

205 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Finian´s Rainbow, 100/30 Manyriverstocross, 4/1 Reve De Sivola, 11/2 River D´Or, 13/2 Duke Of Lucca, 17/2 Any Given Day, 20/1 Quartano, 25/1 Restless Harry, 28/1 Kennel Hill, 40/1 Cois Farraig, 50/1 Bally Sands.

DIOMED VERDICT: FINIAN'S RAINBOW achieved a very good level of form for a horse having his first run over hurdles when winning well here last month and gets the vote ahead of Manyriverstocross.

Only 5 horses in the live betting under 25/1 the ones to focus on in this soft ground class 1 hurdle

240 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Big Buck´s, 7/2 Diamond Harry, 10/1 Karabak, 14/1 Lough Derg, 20/1 Whiteoak, 22/1 Fair Along, 66/1 Kayf Aramis, 100/1 Sweetheart.

DIOMED VERDICT: There is much to admire about the young pretenders Diamond Harry and Karabak but they still have some way go to match the performances of BIG BUCK'S, who is as good a staying hurdler as we have seen in the last 20 or so years and is still young.

Big Buck's has hardened into 1/2 in a race where only 2 horses are under 10/1 and 3 horses are under 20/1 - " must be hard to beat" 1.48 to win 1.09 to place

345 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Midnight Prayer, 8/1 Mac´s Haul, Yukon Quest, 10/1 Mizzurka, Uncle Ant, 11/1 Mossini, 14/1 Aeronautica, 16/1 Premier Article, 20/1 Captain Hastings, Easton Clump, El Passos, Missmargaritaville, Total Submission, 25/1 Mister Concussion, 28/1 Alfie Brown, 33/1 Venetian Lad, Victoria Rose, 40/1 Island News, 50/1 Robin De Vassy.

DIOMED VERDICT: It is hard to be dogmatic about the outcome with 15 of the 19 runners making their debuts under rules but none of them makes really strong appeal on paper and MIDNIGHT PRAYER does set a decent standard on last month's C&D debut second. Big price gapper here BUT a word of caution - this is a bmper and the market needs consultation especially with all of the debutants 1.47 to place SHORTLIST 1220 LEOPARDSTOWN Voler la Vadete is "impossible to oppose" and is priced accordingly. As I have to write this earlier than I would like, the prices given are guide only. 1.38 to win and 1.09 to place. Dare we risk the win only here given the horse is " impossible to oppose"? 2 mile 4 furlongs in yieling ground - 11 runner listed mares hurdle 130 NEWBURY Quantitativeeasing was a ready winner last time out and is almost a carbon copy of the price for the horse above.1.49 to win and 1.11 to place 2 miles on soft and a hurdle -10 runners and 4 horses over 50/1 240 NEWBURY Big Buck's is, again, similarly priced at 1.48 to win and 1.09 to place. 3 miles on soft and a hurdle - 8 runner race (the minimum number for 3 places) - fewer opponents to beat These are the 3 races of interest today and all are very similarly priced and profiled. Now I know that one of these at least will win its race, and the 1.48 is certainly a nice boon, but which horse? The place only prices bring up the question of risk v reward. The biggest place price is for Quantitativeeasing at only 1.11 There are alternatives - we can back these horses in the win market at 1.48 and place a prearranged lay bet at around 1.20 ( our presumption is the horse will run prominently and be competitive throughout) All races are jumps races and we have the spectre of a fall scuppering things. All 3 horses are " impossible to oppose" , "must be hard to beat" and "very much the one to beat" These words form the basis of my " hard to beat" system where the horses generally run very well indeed. Alternatives? Well ,look at the betting for 240 NEWBURY - there are only 3 horses under 20/1 - Diamond Harry is 1.4 to place - chance him? Quantitativeeasing has the shortest distance to run so has that in his favour Big Buck's is in the race with the fewer runners and is one of only 3 under 20/1. These would be the 2 to focus on. My concern is that the prices allow for no error as they are so short. Quantitativeeasing just edges it on price at 1.11

28th December 2009

1225 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Earth Planet, 7/4 Giles Cross, 3/1 Mark The Book, 14/1 Starburst Diamond, 33/1 Valick, 40/1 Nebeltau.

DIOMED VERDICT: Mark The Book is proven over these tricky fences and faced a tall order at Exeter on his reappearance but could be up against it once more with EARTH PLANET and Giles Cross in opposition.

With Ruby consenting to stay in Ireland, a certain newcomer AP McCoy takes the Nicholls mounts in Chepstow beginning with Earth Planet
Only 3 horses under 16/1 should be the ones to concentrate on here surely? Valick is a potential market mover. 3 miles in heavy a concern. Giles cross is the one for money here.
We can approach this from a probability perspective and hope for the best
1.44 and 1.55 the front 2 to place tells you this race is not clear cut
Question mark over the front 2, Earth planet's fall last time and Giles Cross 2 pulled ups.

1250 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Sandynow, 9/4 Will Be Done, 5/1 Mallusk, 6/1 Double Pride, 8/1 Ackertac, 20/1 Ash High, 25/1 Mr Valentino, 33/1 Extreme Conviction, Pinerock, Seize The Day, 50/1 Good For Blue, Paddy The Pirate, 100/1 Dromore Hill, Master Paddy, Phare Isle, True Illusion.

DIOMED VERDICT: WILL BE DONE looks the one to be on, in receipt of weight from the penalised pair.

Only 5 horses under 20/1 here the ones to focus on? Will be Done is the one they're talking about but does not have the regular jockey on today, rather AP Lane. Will be done fancied in the place market at 1.27 to place. I woould prefer to see the same jockey who has ridden him in his last races
With Sandynow, the provisional favourite a non runner, surely Will be Done can exploit the absence of nearest market rival
Will be done not run since JAn 09, but has performed admirably in class 1's - this is a class 3.
Proven on soft

130 LEOPARADSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Pandorama, 7/2 Catch Me, 9/2 Alpha Ridge, 6/1 Whatuthink, 8/1 Weapon´s Amnesty, 10/1 Aranleigh, 12/1 China Rock, 16/1 Lenabane, 25/1 Lucky Wish, 33/1 Coolpotts.

pandorama is a class horse and must enter thoughts re place only Catch me and Alpha ridge are the other 2 of interest. 1.31 to place Pandorama -has won 8 of his last 9 and beaten Alpha ridge twice. Looks a fair prospect for the place. My concern? There are 3 horses around 8/1 just itching to take advantage of any mistakes from Pandorama

245 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Sang Bleu, 5/2 Rougham, 6/1 Kudu Country, 10/1 Bocamix, 12/1 Me Voici, 14/1 Riptide, 33/1 Hector´s House, 66/1 Extreme Impact, 100/1 Salontyre.

DIOMED VERDICT: SANG BLEU, prominent in the Triumph Hurdle betting, comes with a big reputation and is taken to snap his stable's losing streak in this contest. Kudu Country and Rougham are the ones to beat.

Heavy ground a negative. Only 4 under 12/1 in this race. Sang Bleu represents McCoy/Nicholls and is a talking horse. Not ran on heavy ground. 3 horses are 50/1 or bigger and can hopefully be discounted
Only 2 horses under evens in the place only market, Sang Bleu is clear place fav at 1.2
Already mentioned heavy ground - I'm not a big fan of betting in this ground

305 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Theatrical Moment, 4/1 Prince Taime, 7/1 Morning Moment, Tisfreetdream, 25/1 Mealagh Valley.

DIOMED VERDICT: THEATRICAL MOMENT has taken well to chasing and can follow up his recent course win, possibly at the main expense of Tisfreetdream.

3rd fav a non runner makes this another 4 runner race and 2 places - again a clear outsider can hopefully be discounted leaving, realistically, 3 horses and 2 places. The probability races yesterday came in - more of the same today? Theatrical Moment the obvious place only candidate and at 1.19 is a good bet to NOT get beaten by one horse in a prospective 3 horse race
A novice chase, and none of the 3 main principals can be discounted with confidence


315 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Fusaichi Flyer, 15/8 Capricornus, 11/4 Mnasikia, 16/1 Celestial Girl, 20/1 Brave Enough, 33/1 All Right Now, Brave Decision, Erebus, Monograph, 100/1 Dunfishin, Seeking Rio, South African Gold.

DIOMED VERDICT: This could be a fair maiden as CAPRICORNUS, Fusaichi Flyer and Mnasikia look winners waiting to happen.

When Fanning is onboard for Johnston, expectation is for a good run - Capricornus is the horse.Only 3 under 12/1 in this race
Negatives - is a maiden and generally all are open to improvement 1.34 the fav to place

515 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Midnight Strider, 9/2 Levitation, 6/1 Major Lawrence, 8/1 Barbarian, Lindy Hop, 16/1 Hold The Star, 25/1 Chicamia, Venture Capitalist, 33/1 Morning Spring, 50/1 Barony, 66/1 Arch Event, Latin Connection.

DIOMED VERDICT: MIDNIGHT STRIDER makes plenty of appeal up against a mostly-exposed field.

Price gapper in this maiden is now odds on .There are only 5 under 25/1 here at time of writing.
"ought to be hard to beat given normal improvement"
Another maiden who is a strong favourite based on one run only.Analysis from last race
"Midnight Strider forfeited ground at the start and was green early on, but the way he finished had "future winner" written all over it. This Golan son of a French 1m winner is a half-brother to the smart 5f/7f winner Ponty Rossa and it would be no surprise to see him get off the mark at the second time of asking."
What concerns me slightly is that Tejime was 3rd and this horse flopped yesterday ,BUT in a maiden race wonand a 2nd by 2 16/1 system bets in Poet's Place and Bandstand.
The analysis says for Tejime that the surface may not have suited, and this is not a problem for Midnight Strider who runs at Wolves again 1.15 to place

FOOTBALL
MIDDAY - Stockport v Leeds 1.38 - Leeds were similarly priced in their last game and won that one.Leeds away from home have won all bar 2 draws and a loss away to Millwall
7 wins and 2 draws in their last 9 means Leeds are in rude health
Stockport are bottom of the league, and have lost their last 10 matches.Their home form is a mirror of Leeds away form - Stockport have LOST all at home bar 2 draws and a win against Leyton Orient NOT IN RUNNING
Against top 3 sides, they have lost 2-1 and 3-1 at home. Were beaten 2-0 at Leeds.
Could be worth chancing this game? Top v Bottom, contrasting form. BUT sequentially losing sequences end eventually.

1245 - Spurs v West Ham - 1.51 - the market expects a reasonably comfortable home win, albeit in a London Derby.
Spurs have lost 3 at home, 2 identical 1-0 losses to Stoke and Wolves where they couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo
0-0 at Fulham is not a surprise and the 2 previous wins show the strength of Spurs forward line
Hammers have already lost 2-1 at home to Spurs.
Apart from Wolves on opening day, West Ham have not won away from home. They have not played the top 5 away from home so we cannot guage their performances.
1.26 over 1.5 goals


3pm Chelsea v Fulham - 1.39 - research really paid off in their game against Birmingham.
Chelsea are in poor recent form - 3 draws and a loss in their last 5 games
At home, though, Chelsea have won all bar a 3-3 draw with Everton where they were ahead twice.
Fulham have not played the top 4 away from home so we cannot get a guide from this
Have lost 3, drawn 4 and won 1 away.
6 draws, 5 wins and one loss away to Birmingham is good form for Fulham, and proves they can be tough to break down.
Chelsea did win 2-0 at Fulham which may justify their price today.
Fulham look a tough nut to crack
1.17 under 4.5 goals here could be a good bet given recent Chelsea form and recent draw capabilities of Fulham

520pm
Newcastle v Derby - 1.41 - won all bar 2 at home, the Geordies are the form team in the Championship.
Have won 8 and drawn 2 of last 10. Have drawn 2 and won 1 of last 3.
Derby have lost their last 2 home games which really will dent confidence for an away trip to the leaders. Conceded 2 goals to 14th and 7th placed.
Face a Newcastle side who have scored 2 goals or more in their last 6 games and came from 1-0 down to lead 2-1 before drawing away to the Owls -a match they should have won.
Derby have drawn 1 and lost 3 to 3 of the top 6 that they have played away from home, conceding 3 and 6 goals in 2 of those games

SHORTLIST

1250 LEICESTER - Will be done can take advantage of the original favourite being withdrawn - concern over absence from race track and change of jockey to AP Lane who seems to be claiing 3

130 LEOPARDSTOWN - Pandorama has been ultra consistent winning 8 and one 2nd place.1.31 to place tells us this is a top class race - only the horse's 3rd chase race but has won previous 2

305 LEICESTER - another probability race this one and yesterdays was successful
Mealagh Valley should play no part. Theatrical Moment is odds on and a course and distance winner
Purely a probability race as I cannot safely discount Prince Taime and Tisfreedream
Could be worth a chance .

515 WOLVERHAMPTON - in recent days, maiden short priced favourites have disappointed. Tejime yesterday ran very poorly ,and this could have been the change of venue. Here Midnight Strider runs at Wolves again - there are only 5 horses under 25/1 at time of writing and Richard Kingscote retains the ride. Must have an outstanding chance of placing ( reflected in the current 1.15)

FOOTBALL
MIDDAY Top v Bottom. Leeds at 1.38 delivered at home last time, and are away to Stockport who are in the slump of slumps.I would have preferred an over 1.5 goals bet given Stockport have scored at home against top sides but this game is not in running so the markets are fewer on Betfair

520 -Newcastle v Derby. 1.45.
1.31 over 1.5 goals. Newcastle have scored 2 goals in each of their last 6 games. Their price looks spot on for this match

28th December

ANALYSIS AND COMMENT

Nice to see Riverside Theatre rout the opposition again yesterday, but I have to say, this jumps lark is not so good on my old ticker! In every jumps race I have a monetary involvement in, the prayer mat is always out come the last fence, willing the horse to get over it!!
As predicted, there was plenty of money available at 1.19 and 1.18 near the race off. My prices at time of writing have to be guide only because of the relative lack of liquidity in the markets.

27 december 2009

ONE A DAY 130 KEMPTON RIVERSIDE THEATRE TO PLACE
Note - at time of writing (1130am) the markets are illiquid , there's £93 available at 1.19, and £81 at 1.18 in the place market. This market must get more liquidity nearer race time. If possible, wait until nearer the race time until placing your bet

PLEASE NOTE THE EMAIL BROADCASTER WILL BE UNAVAILABLE ON MONDAY 28th DECEMBER 2009, SO PLEASE CHECK THE BLOG ONLY ON THIS OCCASION http://cliveoneaday.com



ANALYSIS AND COMMENT

Bellvano placed and the shortlist of the shortlist bets all came in with Kauto winning and Celtic winning. Nice to swerve Chelsea as Birmingham proved their 7th place is not by accident.

Midday - Hibs v Rangers - this is going to be tight as the 5/6 about an Old Firm side attests. Hibs are in great general form and great home form and lost to Celtic 1-0 and drew at Rangers 1-1.Difficult to get an angle into. If Hibs score first, I can see them holding on or drawing.Rangers have only lost one away and that was 1-0 Aberdeen.

130pm - Arsenal v Aston Villa - Arsenal's only loss at home was against Chelski 3-0 - all other games have seen Arsenal score 2 or more and win every game. Villa away from home ,have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 2 2-1. If they don't win, they keep it tight . 4 wins on the trot means that Villa are brimming with confidence.

4pm -Hull City v Man Utd - 1.43 away side. Some good general form for Hull at home against those 11th or lower in the league - losing none. Move up to the bigger clubs and it's not so good - 8 losses and a 1-1 draw against top 10 sides. Hull have not played the big teams at home so we cannot guage their set up - ultra defensive?
United have scored 13 away in 3 games against the bottom 4 (Hull being 2nd bottom) which hints at a mauling for Hull.
United have surprisingly lost away 4 times -to Chelsea, Fulham , Liverpool and Burnley.
Recent United form is poor - 2 losses in last 3 games. UNACCEPTABLE to Fergie, and he will expect a win against this type of opposition, especially considering Chelsea's 0-0 yesterday and a potential tricky affair for Arsenal with Villa.

Rugby Union - Leicester v Sale 1.13

HORSERACING

1240 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Star Promise, 5/2 Bubbly Bellini, 7/2 Tamarind Hill, 25/1 Stoneacre Joe.

DIOMED VERDICT: STAR PROMISE has plenty going for her given that she comes out with the best chance at the weights, was a ready maiden winner on her only previous visit to Southwell and represents a trainer who won this race in 2002 and 2006.

2 places in this race and if Stoneacre Joe can be readily dismissed, then it's 3 horses for 2 places
"the one to beat" this Star Promise and odds on with the rest at 11/4 and 4/1. 2 year olds in a 5 furlong class 6 seller not perhaps the ideal scenario.Can Kauto star not run again today to make my life easier?
1.22 for Star Promise to place - the only one under 1.5 in the place only market. With Stoneacre Joe at 12.5 to place, this tells us surely that it's a 3 horse race.
PRE PROBABILITY!! 2 of the 3 will place, ONE will not.


100 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Mille Chief, 5/4 Westlin´ Winds, 14/1 Baccalaureate, Freedom Fire, 20/1 Mymateeric, 28/1 Woodlark Island, 50/1 Father Figure, 66/1 Pezula, 100/1 Coka.

DIOMED VERDICT: In a probable match, MILLE CHIEF receives a sizeable weight concession from dual hurdles winner Westlin' Winds and is readily preferred.

Only 2 horses are under 16/1 here, Mille Chief was brought down last time when looking very competitive.Choc Thornton and Alan King are a formidable partnership when on a market leader.
Oliver Greenall has been onboard both of Westlin Winds 2 wins. This is one of those races where we would have to assume that this race will involve 1st and 2nd favourites at the business end. Diomed mentions the sizeable weight concession for Mille Chief - enough to swing things in his favour?
1.11 for Mille Chief to place. I did think this was a shortlister but the price gives little away. Westlin Winds is 1.16 to place

125 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Forpadydeplasterer, 11/4 Tranquil Sea, 7/2 Golden Silver, 13/2 Scotsirish, 8/1 Watson Lake, 9/1 Made In Taipan, 10/1 Carthalawn, 16/1 Mansony.

An interesting race in the live betting market with 3 horses only in this grade 1 race under 12/1.
Form of the front 2 is rock solid. Tranquil holds up the market, is on a hatrick . Forpady has the able assistance of McCoy who makes the trip over to Ireland.
In his last 8 races he has finished in the first 2. The straight 8 here means 3 places Forpadytheplasterer is now a non runner - still 3 places
Tranquil Sea -1.19 to place in newly formed market so not accurate
Golden silver - 1.46 to place
These were 2 of the 3 originally under 12/1


130 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Riverside Theatre, 5/1 El Dancer, 8/1 I Have Dreamed, My Moment, 9/1 Rory Boy, 16/1 Noble Request.

DIOMED VERDICT: Hard to oppose RIVERSIDE THEATRE after his scintillating chase debut success, though El Dancer was officially rated his equal over hurdles and receives 6lb.

" hard to oppose" and has the excellent Barry Geraghty onboard for Nicky Henderson -only his 2nd chase run but a 28 length victor in his first.
Now down to 5 runners and 2 places, Riverside Theatre is 1.15 to place ( again the market is illiquid so this is only a guide price)
2 horses are 20/1 or bigger and hopefully will play no part.
Normally I dislike chase betting because the bigger obstacles can create more fallers but from a probability perspective this is looking good for Riverside theatre


155 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Some Present, 3/1 Fionnegas, 4/1 Judge Roy Bean, 5/1 Sweeps Hill, 11/2 Luska Lad, 12/1 Baron De´L, Saludos, 20/1 Hollo Ladies.

Another 8 runner race and 3 places, a high class affair here with the live market showing 3 only under 10/1
A string of 2nd places for Some Present, 2 at the hands of the imperious Dunguib, surely today he can be competitive again for the places 1.3 for some present to place belies the fact this is high class fare.A nice price though

215 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Tejime, 9/1 If You Knew Suzy, 10/1 Freya´s Flight, 12/1 Manana Manana, 14/1 Bandstand, Poet´s Place, 16/1 Place The Duchess, 20/1 Montego Breeze.

DIOMED VERDICT: TEJIME has done enough to think he could win an ordinary maiden and this looks a golden opportunity.

The biggest price gapper of the day in the betting forecast.Watch out for Bandstand - a significant market mover in this maiden.1.09 for Tejime to place is ,again, a guide price only given I have to write this earlier than I would like

245 LIMERICK

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Special Token, 6/1 Coonagh Cross, Tessoli, 13/2 Tout Regulier, 8/1 Celtic Carol, Miss Tipp, 10/1 Sunshine Haven, 12/1 Musicalamy, 14/1 Apriltwentyfirst, 16/1 Katchelle, 20/1 Anna Supreme, Make It Better, Oh Annika, Shes Chosen, Tizana Star, 25/1 Boulagloss, Standing Game, Wheres Harry,

Another " hard to oppose" Special Token in this bumper

300 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Agus A Vic, 9/2 Top Twig, 7/1 Simonsberg, 8/1 Rudi Trucker, 10/1 Boxer Georg, Royal Ranger, 12/1 Kircassock Vic, Souixsanna Vic, 14/1 Silent Whisper, 16/1 Carlanstown, Lead ´Em Over, 20/1 Leaders Mate, Paddys Star, Send For Paddy, Trideag, 25/1 Security Man, Tagel Rock, 33/1 Euro Seeker.

"the one they all have to beat" , High Class Agus a Vic has not run since May 2009, and will this 1st seasonal run allow the horse to keep up the form shown? Today's ground is soft and 2 mile 7
1.25 to place again a guide price as there's some 4 hours to the off.

SHORTLIST
With the busy Xmas schedule for the football, the ideal really is to get team news because of probable squad rotation. Against perceived weaker opposition Fergie does tend to slightly weaken his squad. Will he do so against Hull today? 1.42 away from home and a good chance of coming in if the United side is strong.
The correct score and +1.5 goals to Hull markets are up on Betfair - expectation for goals? ( but these markets were up in the Chelsea game yesterday!!)
Over 1.5 goals is 1.26

1240 SOUTHWELL - a great PROBABILITY race here - 4 runner and 2 places and a 33/1 outsider.
Default to Star Promise here?
CAUTION - 5 furlong 2 year old class 6 seller is as far removed from the quality of a King George that you can get!
1.22 is the placae price for Star Promise. This is a bet that Star Promise will not get beaten by 1 other horse in this perceived 3 horse race.

125 LEOPARDSTOWN - with Forpadytheplaster a non runner, will this open things up for Tranquil Sea and Golden Silver in this Grade 1 chase?

130 KEMPTON - with the 3rd favourite in the betti ng forecast a non runner, surely this makes Riverside Theatre's chances of placing far better. A 5 horse race now and 2 places, this horse was superb on his sole chase run, winning by 28 lengths.
1.18 to place is the guide price and faith again in Barry Geraghty .2 horses at 25/1 or bigger can hopefully be dismissed, leaving 3 fighting for 2 places.
A chase so we have to assume that Riverside Theatre will put in a clear round of jumping on only his 2nd chase start.

155 LEOPARDSTOWN - can Some Present run well again? Very consistent form and Dunguib has been his victor twice. No Dunguib today though!!

300 DOWNROYAL - Agus a Vic is a high class hunter chaser

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

1.42 is certainly very appealing for Man United away to Hull City today. BUT it is likely to be a hard fought win (if indeed it is a win) -this match is not quite as straightforward and rock solid as Celtic yesterday.

1240 SOUTHWELL - is simply included because it is a probability race. It looks like a 3 horse race and 2 places hoping the outsider plays no part. The negative is the race type - 5 furlong class 6 seller for 2 year olds.
Quite simply, you will be backing the horse NOT to get beaten by 2 horses in a 4 horse race ( or if discounting the outsider, NOT to get beaten by one other horse in a 3 horse race)

130 KEMPTON - Riverside Theatre seems to have a lot in his favour in this race - a comprehensive chase victory under today's jockey augurs well for a clear round ( and remember when jumps betting, we alwways have the spectre of a fall) 5 runners and 2 places, 2 of those are 25/1 or bigger. All things being equal, Riverside Theatre seems to have just 2 to realistically beat to place .