31 AUG

Gilded Truffle 4th at 14/1 , alas no place, Shake on it won at 9/1, Welcome Approach 2nd at 3/1, Arfinnit hd 4th at 5/1 , again no place payout, Casablanca minx 1st at 10/1 but I did say get out if you hit a winner early on - don't bother listening to me!

RPice gaps, I left Strike an ark alone and it came nowhere, Royal Indulgence won (again another horse I didn't think would be a good bet - again - don't bother listening to me!), Rockfield Lodge wins, Achill Island won in a very controversial race at an unbackable price 2/7, and Desparate Dan consented to put his best foot forward and won

Another clean sweep on the price gaps - surely this is going to go tits up at some stage -is it?

EACH WAY BETS

I still chose the right races but the wrong outsiders - v frustrating to see a 14/1 winner getting home when you chose other outsiders

220 CHESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Demisemiquaver, 5/4 Sues Surprise, 8/1 Cow Girl, 20/1 Penang, 50/1 Taran Tregarth, 66/1 Cardington Queen, 150/1 Mistblack, 200/1 Lilymay,
Clearly a 2 horse race, but these are ladies so may be temperamental and unpredictable - Cow girl looks the obvious selection but Penang is not priced as an outright outsider and will be a far bigger price to nick a place at least - very speculative

250 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Dingle Belle, 6/1 Natural Force, 8/1 Curragh Mountain, Norther Bay, 10/1 Lynott, Spaceman, 14/1 Last Warrior, Zorooni, 20/1 Bleu Exit, Canulos, Gettysburg, High Pressure, Knockalt, 25/1 Sarahs Gift.

A maiden hurdle and I will always opt for the each way option against a shortie. although this will probably appear in the PRice Gap section! - Curragh mountain (3rd ) and Lynott(5th) each way
230 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Artsu, Only A Game, 4/1 Ramatni, 5/1 Thompsons Walls, 10/1 Stormy Journey, 14/1 Atephobia, Smileforawhile, 25/1 Moonlight Gambler,
A nursery so I can be speculative Stormy Journey and Thomposn walls each way
410 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Alberts Story, 11/2 Joshua´s Gold, Zain, 8/1 Miss Porcia, 10/1 Gala Sunday, Lauro, 12/1 Bold Indian, 14/1 Goodwood Spirit, 16/1 Just Dust, 20/1 Howards Rocket, Moonstreaker, Oeuf A La Neige, Pianoforte, Terenzium, 25/1 Anthemion, 33/1 Ulysees.
Gala Sunday and LAuro each way for me - possitioned to be competitive for a place in a competitive looking handicap
440 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Colchium, 4/1 Mister Benedictine, 5/1 Kavachi, 7/1 Gallego, 10/1 Batchworth Blaise, 12/1 Theatre Royal, 14/1 Spice Bar, Waterline Twenty, Windy Prospect, 16/1 Blue Line, 25/1 Croft, Mocha Java, 33/1 Bollywood, Compton Express.

Lady riders handicap - worth speculating again - Batchworth blaise (5th) and Theatre Royal each way
315 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Colony, 5/1 Emmrooz, Funny Me, 8/1 Black Dahlia, Irish Mayhem, Ridge Dance, Winged Legacy, 12/1 Brexca, Nowaira, 16/1 King´s Wonder, 20/1 Sinbad The Sailor, 25/1 Colour Trooper, Dr Livingstone, 50/1 Irish Artist, Pinnacle Point.

Many debutants so again speculating may pay off with a surprise result
I'll opt for the 2 12/1 shots Brexca and Nowaira
700 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Rio Taffeta, 4/1 Smokeyourpipe, 5/1 Lord Deevert, 6/1 Liani, 8/1 Desert Life, 10/1 Alexander Monarchy, 12/1 Mwindaji, 20/1 Emef Princess, 25/1 Carry On Cleo, One Called Alice, 33/1 Liz Long, Miss Willoughby.

A 5 furlong claimer primed for an upset? Mwindaji and Emef PRincess very speculatively as they'll be at big prices

Again, I'll be getting out , well wimping out, if I get an early winner at a decent price or a good priced equivalent placed horse , although the last horse will probably romp home at 25/1 knowing my luck after yesterday's last 10/1 winner!

PRICE GAPS
The strike rate is too good to be true at present. A clean sweep yesterday, albeit at none too excitable prices.
250 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Dingle Belle, 6/1 Natural Force, 8/1 Curragh Mountain, Norther Bay, 10/1 Lynott, Spaceman, 14/1 Last Warrior, Zorooni, 20/1 Bleu Exit, Canulos, Gettysburg, High Pressure, Knockalt, 25/1 Sarahs Gift .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DINGLE BELLE, who has been found wanting in the closing stages of her most recent races, has her best chance so far to open her account. She stands out in this company on the basis of her third placing behind Gleann An Sagart and subsequent winner North Shore at Cork in April, and enjoys a clear edge over both ZOROONI and CURRAGH MOUNTAIN on running at Tramore last time, when she was run of it by Ring Hill, a former French-trained Flat winner.

Mentioned earlier - a maiden hurdle

320 DOWNPATRICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Top The Charts, 6/1 Mozamjer, 7/1 Enfield Chase, 8/1 Royal Approval, 10/1 English City, Montana Slim, 12/1 Sudden Edge .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TOP THE CHARTS has shown a level of form in handicaps that indicates a likelihood that he will prove too good for a couple of rivals who are a pound or two higher in official ratings. Tony Martin's Singspiel gelding made the frame in successive handicaps won by former Group 3 Flat winner Bobs Pride at the big meetings at Fairyhouse and Punchestown in the spring. On the first occasion, he finished 3l runner-up, and while he did not quite match that effort when 7l fourth on the second occasion he was only 3l behind third-placed Farmer Brown whose fine summer hurdling campaign culminated with a handsome win in the Galway Hurdle. MOZAMJER is rated 2lb superior to Top The Charts, but his mark has not been put to the test in handicaps and his win in a maiden at Roscommon hardly amounts to enough to suggest that he will cope with that rival. He owed his moderate second to Dreamy Gent at Galway to the fall of the selection's stablemate Imperial Rose at the last.

"indicates a likelihood" - I'd prefer "hard to oppose"! But the price gap is very defined
455 DOWNPATRICK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Shesthebiscuit, 5/1 Yoursmineandours, 6/1 Only One Left, 8/1 Distant Piper, Sagittate, 10/1 Ansari, Jetarsu, 12/1 Moon At Midnight, Penny And Me, 14/1 Divinshki, 16/1 Dictation, Frank Moss Bennett, 20/1 At Last, Great Blasket ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHESTHEBISCUIT (nap) has the best credentials, and the only real concern is that here recent good run of form has been achieved on different ground to today's forecast surface. It was yielding when she was second at Gowran and also when she beat Togher Castle at Killarney, and she coped well with heavy going when runner-up to Indian Four at Tralee ten days ago.

Slight price gap here and a typical tricky Irish race but let's see , for the sake of keeping records, how the horse runs
555 DOWNPATRICK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 La Motta, 5/1 Papa Power, 6/1 Radiator Rooney, 8/1 Knockmealdown, Miss Curly, 10/1 Danetime Lily, Intensify, Libras Child, 12/1 Pep In Her Step, 14/1 Smooth Steps, 16/1 Dromana Gate, 20/1 Hard Gossip ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MISS CURLY, blinkered for the first time today, is an each-way sugestion. She is certainly not without a chance if recapturing the form that she showed in taking third place behind Johnny Angel over the course and trip a year ago, since she is 14lb lower now. In fact, she has never run off such an attractive mark in a handcap career that stretches back to the 2003 season when she was runner-up on three occasions, competing off a mark in the high 50s. Her form last season included a fine second to Miracle Ridge in a 22-runner sprint handicap at Navan, and she may now reverse last month's Naas running with KNOCKMEALDOWN. LA MOTTA, bidding to maintain a good spell of form for trainer Ado McGuinness, has a major chance. The seven-year-old, who has notched two of his three career wins over the course and trip, is 4lb lower than when beating Dooie Dancer here a year ago, and it is encouraging that he showed definite signs of a return to form when third to the well-handicapped subsequent Galway winner Emily Blake at Limerick last time. Amongst those behind was Calm Lad who won a claimer in good style at Sligo on Tuesday.

La motta

NOTE - do you really think that the favourites will go through the card at Downpatrick - stats are against this occurence
I have included these 5/2 - - - 5/1 and 9/4 ----5/1 price gaps after wins in the UK by the likes of Zain and Toy Top recently - I'll be keen to see how these perform.
My general tendency is to put precedence on UK qualifiers above the Irish

445 HAMILTON

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Ellens Academy, 5/1 Haajes, 6/1 Joyeaux, Katie Boo, 7/1 Rainbow Fox, 9/1 Steel Blue, 10/1 Yorkshire Blue, 12/1 Finsbury, 16/1 Stoic Leader, 25/1 Opal Noir, 40/1 Wainwright .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ellens Academy looked in fantastic form at Ayr on Wednesday and a reproduction of that effort would give him every chance, but he has never won two races in a row and it might be worth taking him on with HAAJES, who made a promising start to his UK career last time out.[SR]

Again not a Palmetto Point type of price gap and NOT the pick of Spotlight - caution regarding never having won 2 on the trot - you can look on this as a negative or as a pattern to be ended should the right race come up
As I said earlier 5/2 - - - 5/1 are being included although they do not really meet my ideal price gap criteria

610 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Mccartney, 5/1 Yahrab, 6/1 Donegal, 8/1 Art Master, 10/1 Scintillo, 12/1 Quick Release, 14/1 Strategic Mover .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It was hard not to be impressed by the impression McCARTNEY (nap) created at Hamilton last time and although this represents a tougher assignment, he can pass the test with flying colours. Yahrab has shaped as though a smart prospect as well and is taken to chase the selection home.[PSm]

McCartney is a previous winner for the price gaps and the price gap is certainly there -
Mccartney

Shaped with some promise on his Sandown debut and confirmed himself a smart juvenile when routing rivals in a conditions event at Hamilton; well up to making his mark in Listed company and assuming faster ground isn´t a problem, he will prove very hard to beat.
Good to see those words "will prove to be very hard to beat" but a note of caution , given the time of the race, regarding ground conditions which should be checked nearer the off
640 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Bright Mind, 6/1 Harry Tricker, 7/1 Easterly Breeze, 12/1 Demolition, Elusory, 14/1 Wroughton, 16/1 Anna Towkaska, 20/1 Split The Wind, 25/1 Miss Habershon, 33/1 Covert Mission, 50/1 Lady Of Lorne .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BRIGHT MIND caught the eye in behind the impressive Broomielaw on debut and looks to have been found a good opportunity to get off the mark here. Demolition shouldn't be up to beating him, but comes from an in-form stable and could prove the best each-way alternative.[PSm]

Another maiden race and a fav based upon one previous run - I did note caution with Dubai Times and he went on and won!
As with all maidens, it should go without saying that the live market will be important

525 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Sugar Ray, 5/1 Malyana, Nur Tau, 7/1 Venir Rouge, 8/1 Rock Anthem, 10/1 Highland Harvest, Risque Heights, 20/1 Beau Sancy, Minos, 25/1 Kilburn, 33/1 Sir Liam, 66/1 Colonel Flay .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There should be plenty more to come from SUGAR RAY (nap) and he can deliver a knock-out blow to this opposition now handicapping. Malyana and Nur Tau can follow him home.[AC]

NAPS and price gaps have been performing well - an anomoly or can it continue?

It's difficult for me , now , to distinguish between horses I think won't run too well and the banker bets ,because time after time this week I've been surprised by the bigger priced winners eg 5/2 etc, which is why I have cast the price gap net a little fiurther this time and included these, for record keeping purposes more than anything.

Will the 4 Downroyal price gappers win? Instincts and experience tell me that it is difficult for multiple favs to win at a single venue in Ireland, but with horse racing you never can tell.
Too many price gappers for me today as well - I would be happier with one or 2