PRICE GAPS - too many selections yesterday nowhere near the Palmetto Point type of bet, bar, in fact, the 2 winners of the day. I did say I was including the 9/4 - - - 5/1 and 5/2 - - - 5/1 to see how they get on and generally they were very competitive and placed. I am keen to keep an eye on them because the prices are appealing, around 11/4.
I hope you left Dingle Belle alone - another maiden hurdle shortie goes down. Top Charts won and the price gap was decent 4/5 - - - 6/1 - slight difference from 5/2 - - - 5/1!
She's the biscuit - a 5/2 - - - 5/1 chance, came 2nd, as did LA Motta will a similar price gap, -Ellens academy went off at 6/1 and was unplaced , again another 5/2 - - - 6/1 chance.
The 2nd obvious opportunity of the day was McCartney evens - - - 5/1 who won as the price gap suggested.
Bright Mind would have been another obvious candidate yesterday att an unbackable 4/11 and came 2nd
Sugar Ray came 2nd at evens and ewas another 2/1 - - - 5/1 price gapper.
So what can we learn from yesterday? Well the 3 proper price gappers were McCartney, Topofthecharts, and Bright Sky, 2 wins and a 2nd at an unbackable 4/11. The others are great place only candidates and could be included perhaps at smaller stakes. Today is the usual Saturday bookie benefit day so I am going to tread warily.
EACH WAY PUNTS
A couple of big priced places yesterday - agian it is advantageous to use BEtfair's place only market because if an 8 runner race has a non runner then Betfair will still pay out 3 for the place where traditional bookmakers will restrict place only pay out to 2
430 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Prince Erik, 5/2 Temlett, 3/1 Cool Touch, 5/1 Consulate, 8/1 King In Waiting, 25/1 Zibeline, 50/1 Summerville Star, 66/1 Jobbs Comforter.
Tight field and an obvious each wy candidate in King in Waiting just before the perceived outsiders
440 KILBEGGAN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Uncle Junior, 11/2 Katalak, 8/1 Follow A Star, 10/1 Davids Day, Derryvarey Beg, 14/1 Dover Street, 16/1 Hallys Goal, 20/1 Iain´s River, Key Devil, Like The Da, Paddy The Dragon.
Another maiden hurdle and although the price suggests a shoe in it is a good race for an each way punt - I will swerve the obvious candidate Katalak and opt for Follow a star and Davids Day each way
300 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Admiral Peary, 11/4 Galtee View, 4/1 Quick, 6/1 Not Today Sir, 15/2 Liberman, 20/1 Happy Hussar, 25/1 Esterelle, Jewel That Shines, 28/1 Lost In The Snow, Uncle Max, 33/1 Little Alf, 40/1 Stansted, 50/1 Kal, Matrix.
Again Liberman is priced to be competitive in the place market with Quick an obvious each way candidate
210 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Welsh Auction, 3/1 Diamond Hurricane, 9/2 Almora Guru, 6/1 College Land Boy, Orotund, 16/1 Heidi Hi, 25/1 First Valentini, Tenterhooks, 33/1 Didactic, Flushed, Signor Whippee, 100/1 Bidders Itch, Final Desire, Harts In Mo Shun, Littlemadgebob, Mandriano.
Apprentice selling stakes - hmmm more please!
HEidi Hi and Almora Guru each way - one obvious and one speculative just before the 25/1 shots
425 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Double Doors, 5/4 Easterly Breeze, 8/1 Allaire, 14/1 March Mate, 33/1 King Zeal, 50/1 Betterlatethanever, Serial Habit, 66/1 Hayfield Flyer, Shady Bay.
All things being equal this should concern the first 2 in the betting but this is horse racing - Alla ire is the obvious candidate but March MAte has one to beat to palce at tastier odds if we can safely discount the outsiders in this maiden
205 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Heaven Sent, 7/2 Sweet Lilly, 8/1 Italian Girl, 10/1 Basaata, Bicoastal, Tarteel, 12/1 Expensive, 16/1 Pintle, 20/1 In Safe Hands, 25/1 Chantilly Tiffany, 33/1 Elusive Flash, Ransom Captive, 50/1 Lady Livius, Satulagi, Tiana, 100/1 Hansomelle.
1st tier 13/8, 7/2
2nd tier 8/1, 10/1, 12/1, 16/1
3rd tier 20/1 bar
Indian girl and expensive for me each way
PRICE GAPS
250 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Bauer, 5/1 Sagredo, 13/2 Lundy´s Lane, 7/1 Dansili Dancer, 9/1 John Terry, 10/1 Ogee, 16/1 Galient, Gavroche, Solent, 20/1 Mikao .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BAUER (nap), bred to improve with time, has read the script and has looked to have a good prize in him ever since his encouraging reappearance in the spring. Last month's narrow 1m4f Pontefract defeat did nothing to dispel that conviction and further progress is surely on the cards over this extra trip. There are some capable handicappers in opposition and course winner Galient, representing last year's winning stable, could be a live threat from a dangerous-looking mark.[PJ] Again one for the record keeping - 2/1 - - - 5/1 - will he place again? 330 DOWNROYAL
|
440 KILBEGGAN
Far too short a price to be getting involved and a maiden hurdle to boot
740 KILBEGGAN
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Dual Gales, 9/2 Cool Bob, 6/1 Damien´s Oscar, Oronoco Flow, 10/1 Druid´s Chair, Warren Dream, Zaffurette, 12/1 Some Stunt, 14/1 Fernhill Dara, Sonny Barden, 16/1 Erne Allstar, My Lucky Break .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DUAL GALES gets the vote to score for the Willie and Patrick Mullins alliance. The six-year-old son of Lord Of Appeal is out of a dam who won a good ground Gowran Park bumper back in July 1998 and in what looks a weak affair he might prove good enough on his debut coming from these quarters. |
A debutant in a bumper is hardly a convincing profile
Price gaps? - Well there are no McCartneys or topofthecharts today aand there isnt one horse I would say stands out if I was to put up a nap of the day.
FOOTY
Extremely tricky day in the Premiership today bar the Livepool v Derby game which looks a great lay of Derby who should find the Reds far too hot.
I also predict trouble for Sunderland and will opt for an over 2.5 goal trade - Man Utd are due to do a demolition job on someone soon, Sir Hairdryer will make sure of that. Could be today with Roy" Keano" Kean'es SUnderland looking to finally realise that the Premiership will not be all 1-0's at home to Spurs
Bolton do not have the profile of a high scoring side and I will chance a lay of Bolton early doors today against a resolute Everton. I hope that Everton will score first to enable me to trade out but if Bolton take the lead I won't be overtly concerned as they have let leads go too often
Middlesbrough are a speculative lay for me, especially at the price as I would simply never back them at evens even at Home. Brum are no pushovers and look to have a decent attacking option
Over 2.5 goals could be the call in the Rangers v Gretna game today - you'll get bigger than the 1/7 on the straight win
I always fancy Lyon at home for one of my back and lay off after they score first trades, if the game is in running. Facing Le MAns today, they shuld oblige, although a characteristic of their play last year was a welter of late goals - not ideal for this type of trade.
Tomorrow the Arse face Portsmouth who have been a throrn in their side both home and away and I will chance a tight affair and an under 2.5 goal trade for the first 30 mins or so.
I'm still a fan of Man City even away from home and may chance a lay of Blackburn early doors
Chelsea at 8/11 are a big price awway to Villa and I suspect another very tight game and a probable 1-0 scoreline
Can BArca get the ball rolling and can Frank Rijkaard accomodate his forwards without comrpomising his defence - again, like Lyon, this is one for my back BArca and lay off after they score (hopefully) first. If they go a goal down, I will get involved with them again at the higher odds
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