On the price gap front Ibn Khaldun won as she liked under Frankie at unappetising odds of 1/2 - 4/9 at the off, but a win's a win. Lor d of Dreams was unplaced - and Wassily KAndisnsky just couldn't get her head in front.
Too many price gappers from maiden races and I really don't like to get involved in these as the strike rate for favs is poor in these race types - there are too many imponderables as well.
On to today
EACH WAY
240 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/1 Cristal Clear, 7/1 Royal Confidence, 15/2 Crystany, 9/1 Anosti, 10/1 Geestring, 12/1 Close To Paradise, Hawk Eyed Lady, Serena´s Storm, Sophie´s Girl, 14/1 Dresden Doll, La Chicaluna, 16/1 Kay Es Jay, Mey Blossom, 20/1 Broken Applause, 25/1 Bohobe, Jennifers Joy, Miss Firefly, 33/1 Miss Bootylishes, 40/1 Leading Edge, 200/1 Amazing Spirit,
Plenty in with chances so says Spotlight - I will chance Dresden Doll and Geestring each way
420 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Drayton, 5/1 Green Manalishi, 11/2 Hogmaneigh, Peace Offering, 13/2 Galeota, 7/1 Conquest, 8/1 Morinqua, Pivotal´s Princess, 14/1 Perfect Paula.
What a tight betting heat this promises to be. i will swerve those at the head of the market and go with Morinqua - a horse I have followed and a real speed merchant
200 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Ballochroy, 100/30 Love Valentine, 5/1 Boy Blue, 6/1 Maryqueenofscots, 8/1 Incarnation, 10/1 Seta Pura, Trip The Light, 14/1 Potemkin, 33/1 Blindspin, Ugly Betty, 66/1 Halton Castle .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not a great deal to go on and the betting should provide some clues, particularly Mark Johnston's newcomer Love Valentine, but BALLOCHROY, with experience behind him and probably more to come, may be the better proposition on this occasion.[FC] |
Not much to go in so some speculation can be allowed - Seta Pura and Trip the light look positioned to be competitive for a place in another very tricky maiden where the price market is key
230 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Bonny Rose, 15/8 Copperwood, 9/2 All The Aces, 10/1 Green Earrings, 14/1 Oxbridge, 25/1 Better In Heaven, Feeling Fresh, 33/1 Brasingaman Hifive, Love Cat, Pentandra, 50/1 Warsaw Waltz .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BONNY ROSE (nap) did really well to divide a couple of fair sorts at Redcar last month and she has plenty going for her over a trip which should suit. Copperwood looks next best of those with experience, though All The Aces is an interesting newcomer.[EMW] |
With the first 3 fill the first 3 places in the final placings? I'm betting against it with Green Earrings and Oxbridge each way - both lodged between the fancies and the outsiders. this is another maiden race so is open to surprises
335 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Chatham Islands, 7/2 Craggy Cat, 11/2 Perfect Flight, 8/1 Ridge Wood Dani, 10/1 Irving Place, Russian Reel, 14/1 Fyodorovich, Stage Acclaim, 16/1 Brixworth Scribe, Narmeen, Rievaulx Valentino, 25/1 The Real Guru, 100/1 Falcon Speed,
A big field nursery and a chance on some outsiders in Irving Place and Russian Reel each way, again positioned near the head of the market
650 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Iguazu Falls, 8/1 Charmel´s Lad, 10/1 Bronze Cannon, 12/1 Oarsman, 14/1 Landikhaya, 16/1 Prime Aspiration, Southern Mistral, 20/1 Haydens Mark, 25/1 Earlsmedic, Special Branch Ami, 33/1 Distant Diamond, 40/1 Autumn Blades, 100/1 Pure Scandal .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: IGUAZU FALLS holds plenty of fancy entries in the next few weeks and connections will be disappointed if he cannot get off the mark. Bronze Cannon and Charmel's Lad look the main dangers, but they will probably have to settle for minor honours if the selection is at his best. |
215 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Levitski, 100/30 The Sliotar, 9/2 Prince De Bersy, 6/1 Willie Pep, 10/1 Gallant Hero, Gone Tomorrow, 14/1 The Saltire Tiger, Thehonourablelady, 16/1 Pencil House, Whistle Blowing, 25/1 Kilrossanty, 33/1 Viennchee Run, 100/1 Evelith Princess, Oat Hill, The Gerry Man, 200/1 My Rocket.
Gallant HEro and Gone tomorrow each way
325 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Last Pioneer, 6/1 It´s News To Me, 7/1 Chandlers Cross, 15/2 Taras Knight, 10/1 Chunky Lad, Elaala, Smart Minister, 14/1 Are You There, Backlash, Princess Aimee, 20/1 Ceredig, 33/1 Bold Pursuit, Bouzouki, High Seasons, New Wish, 50/1 Mind That Fox, Night Reveller, Von Wessex .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It remains to be seen what LAST PIONEER would find in a scrap but it might not come to that in this company if he's firing on all cylinders after a break.[AWJ] |
A selling hurdle so I'll be chancing Chandlers Cross near the head of the market and Are you there just before the outsiders
PRICE GAPS
530 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Ravarino, 11/2 Parisian Dream, 13/2 Hassaad, Lemonette, 7/1 Soft Morning, 14/1 Buccellati, Nawamees, Resonate, 20/1 Collateral Damage, Lucayan Dancer, 25/1 Along The Nile, Blue Spinnaker, 33/1 Fusili, Lisathedaddy .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The progressive 3yos could be the ones to concentrate on and RAVARINO (nap), who is getting her act together of late, makes the most appeal. She is the type to progress again for current connections and is a proven performer over this distance. [RY] |
POSITIVES - ok price gap and napped by spotlight - progressive -
NEGATIVES - not a palmetto or Ibn Khundun kind of price gap
No mention of " will be very hard to beat" etc by Spotlight
650 KEMPTON
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: IGUAZU FALLS holds plenty of fancy entries in the next few weeks and connections will be disappointed if he cannot get off the mark. Bronze Cannon and Charmel's Lad look the main dangers, but they will probably have to settle for minor honours if the selection is at his best |
Likely to go off 1/3 -no thanks
POSITIVES - very prominent price gap - ideal really - expected to win by connections
NEGATIVES - valueless price for a one time out maiden ,favourite purely on reputation.Plenty of improvers and a big field maiden. Also unbackable price for the race type
250 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 My Condor, 6/1 Star Galaxy, 13/2 Yankee Holiday, 8/1 Jefertiti, 10/1 Meltonian, Nesnaas, Royal Master, Schinken Otto, 12/1 Gipsy Cricketer, 14/1 Dream On Maggie, 25/1 Pure Brief, 33/1 Macgyver .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The presence of other potential front-runners is a worry but MY CONDOR looked a very different horse after his wind operation at Cartmel and could still be ahead of the handicapper, despite a 13lb rise.[AWJ] |
POSITIVES - ahead of the handicapper, slight price gap - in the early market the price gap is better at 7/4 - - - 5/1
NEGATIVES - not strictly a price gap qualifier, no "hard to beat etc" , form of 321 -can he keep it up in handicap company.
CONCLUSION - one to note for me, and probably a good place only option
The real price gappers have been conspicuous by their absence today - Ibn Khundun fit in with the kind of profile I want to see, but we then pay the price by it going off at 4/9! So look through previous blogs and note, Palmetto Point, United Nations, Dylan Thomas, Ibn Khundun if you really want to see what I'd like to see from a price gap candidate
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