Tuesday, 14 August 2007

DAY 4

No big wins in the each way bets yesterday alas.
All of the place only bets obliged which was great. From a porgressive staking perspective, wins for Wheelavit, Sophies Girl, and Annambo did the job.
On the lay side, we were successful in Ireland but Blue empire won in the UK, albeit joint fav so liabilities reduced. With my lays, again Blue empire let me down but it's a decent strike rate at the moment
TODAY'S EACH WAY BACKS
Only one placer yesterday despite some big prices going in.
330 BRIGHTON - a fillies handicap - unpredictable ladies? I'll take a chance - Little Carmela each way
400 BRIGHTON - claimers often bring with them surprise results - the front 2 are obvious, but I'll chance Marbaa and Tumble Jill each way in the hope at least one misfires
600 MUSSELBURGH - BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 York Cliff, 5/2 Kyber, 4/1 Blushing Hilary, 8/1 Dance Sauvage, 10/1 Danticat, 20/1 High Frequency, 25/1 Forever My Lord, Scurra, 50/1 Borsch, Living On A Prayer, The Dunion.
This is indicative of a potential 5 runner race - I'll back Dance Sauvage and Danticat each way
630 MUSSELBURGH - BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Choisette, 7/2 Style Award, The Real Guru, 4/1 Charlotti Carlotti, 9/1 Firenza Bond, 33/1 She´s Our Dream, 66/1 Next Best, a 2 year old nursery and it's Firenza Bond each way for me - just before the outsiders in another race, like the claimers, where unpredicatable results do occur
215 NEWTON ABBOTT - Escoffier and thisoneforthegirls each way
345 NEWTON ABBOTT - BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Tension Point, 13/8 Soliya, 12/1 Silmi, 14/1 Atacama King, 16/1 Avant Gardiste, 20/1 Citrus Chief, 25/1 Flying Grey, Gertie, Lets Get Cracking, 33/1 Agapios, Hard As Iron.
Juvenile novices - Silmi and Atacama King each way incase one of the market principles fails to run as his price indicates he should run
745 NOTTS - a conditions event - I'll swerve the likely market leaders and opt for Tabaret each way
PROGRESSIVE STAKING
3 out of 4 yeaterday kept things ticking away nicely
400 BRIGHTON - Prince des Nieges - this looks a 2 horse race - hope we've picked the right one!
515 NEWTON ABBOTT - MAree Hall - yes I know a fav in a maiden hurdle - I should be shot!¬BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Maree Hall, 4/1 Prince De Bersy, 5/1 Knight Of Light, 16/1 Phone In, 20/1 Ardente Sauvage, Musical Gift, 25/1 Plasteredinburnham, 33/1 He´s My Brother, 50/1 Dancing Green, Molly Coddle, The Gerry Man. A potential 3 horse race if the betting forecast is correct gives us a 33% chance of striking with a winner

PLACE ONLY BETTING
100% yesterday - small gains but a relatively worry free method of betting
230 BRIGHTON - Commandment - if there is a palce only market
630 MUSSELBURGH - Choisette
515 NEWTON ABBOTT - MAree Hall - as already discussed - looks a 3 horse race
LAYS
Biggest field of the day - 300 BRIGHTON - Ishibee
Only Blue Empire letting me down yesterday
MY LAYS
I am looking for races where the betting forecast indicates competitiveness
330 BRIGHTON BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Kyloe Belle, 4/1 Chant De Guerre, Elounda, 11/2 Little Carmela, 13/2 Mayireneyrbel, 14/1 Little Miss Tara, Lunar River, 16/1 Compton Express. Kyloe BElle has 2 in close proximity
800 MUSSELBURGH - BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 La Matanza, 5/1 Inca Soldier, Kabis Amigos, Mister Jingles, 7/1 Distant Sun, Ghafeer, 8/1 Baylaw Star, Frank Crow, 33/1 Avontuur. la matanza has 'em queuing up!
215 NEWTON ABBOTT - BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Knightsbridge Hill, 9/2 Country Affair, Haydon Lady, 6/1 Escoffier, 7/1 Shuil An Burren, 10/1 Thisoneforthegirls, 12/1 Pound Sign, 14/1 Lizarazu, Not A Doctor, 25/1 Daramoon, 33/1 Gazza´s Edition. - Knightsbridge Hill
415 NEWTON ABBOTT - BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Westfield Dancer, 4/1 Ben Tally Ho, 9/2 Fort Ord, 11/2 Nanard, 8/1 Merry Storm, 12/1 Ashgreen, 14/1 Miss Muscat, 16/1 Amber Light, Missy Moscow, 20/1 Major Matt, The Teuchter, 33/1 Fiftyseven Chev.
Westfiewld dancer
715 NOTTINGHAM - BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Brixworth Scribe, 5/1 Mistress Cooper, 11/2 Kaldoun Kingdom, 7/1 Barbarossa, Ginger Pickle, Irving Place, 8/1 We Have A Dream, 14/1 Geordie Girl, 16/1 Alexander Monarchy, 20/1 Bonny´s Babe. - Brixworth Scribe looks a reluctant fav
815 NOTTINGHAM - BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 One Way Ticket, Our Fugitive, 6/1 After The Show, Silver Prelude, 8/1 Bobby Rose, Haajes, 10/1 Bahamian Duke, Steel City Boy, 12/1 Northern Chorus, 16/1 Smokin Beau, 25/1 Bookiesindex Boy, 33/1 Niteowl Lad. - a typical open handicap rounds the card - god help the getting out stakes punters! - one way ticket is the call despite there being 2 joint favs simply because he's first named!

Don't forget the laying of the betting forecast fav in the first race of the day - let's see how that goes

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