Wednesday, 29 August 2007

29 AUG

Looks the business done in a photo at 25/1 yesterday - gutted! - payout for the place on BEtfair was not too shabby.

With the price gaps, Palemtto Point really is the template we should be looking for price gap 15/8 - - - 7/1 , napped and great write up. HE obliged

Did you notice the ifs and buts about the majority of the others? Could be a good lay system for short prices?
Wildwest - "reservations about her low draw"
Emerald wilderness - NOT even picked by Spotlight -
BAck on the red - 12lb penalty and different conditions - and all lost.
The only solid one of the day - Palmetto Point!
EACH WAY
230 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Dubai Time, 9/2 Pearl Trader, 13/2 Harrison George, 7/1 Mangham, Prince Kalamoun, 25/1 Howards Hope, 33/1 Terracos Do Pinhal, World Tour, 66/1 Becky Quick, 100/1 Livvy Inn.

One time out short priced fav and 5 horses before the 25/1 outsiders - worth chancing Mangham and Prince Kalamoun - obviously priced to be competitive from a place only perspective

400 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Neil´s Legacy, 7/2 Hawkit, Regent´s Secret, 5/1 Just Lille, 10/1 King Of Rhythm, Stolen Glance, Toshi, 20/1 Pianoforte.

A tight betting heat - Just Lille each way - just after the front 3

350 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Ingleby Princess, 4/1 Cheery Cat, Flying Valentino, 6/1 Musical Beat, 8/1 Messiah Garvey, Nufoudh, 12/1 Mundo´s Magic, 16/1 Hart Of Gold, Tarraburn.

7/2 the field so worth chancing the 8/1 shots in Messiah Garvey and Nufoudh

310 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Huzzah, 6/4 Palmerin, 10/1 Mubher, 14/1 Judgethemoment, 50/1 Muga, Ryan´s Rock, 66/1 Lord Of Esteem, Me Me Me, 100/1 Newcastle Sam,

Always worth chancing one of the main 2 won't give his running - Judgethemoment each way

PRICE GAPS
230 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Dubai Time, 9/2 Pearl Trader, 13/2 Harrison George, 7/1 Mangham, Prince Kalamoun, 25/1 Howards Hope, 33/1 Terracos Do Pinhal, World Tour, 66/1 Becky Quick, 100/1 Livvy Inn .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pearl Trader, a newcomer with an eyecatching pedigree, is one to keep a close eye on but this could go to DUBAI TIME, who shaped with a good deal of promise on his debut and is sure to be wiser for that experience. [RY]

Good price gap but not for me with only the one run last time out - and this is a maiden - but let's see if the indiscriminate backing of these price gaps will herald a decent strike rate

430 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 John Keats, 11/2 Charles Parnell, Ellens Academy, 6/1 Word Perfect, 7/1 Cassie´s Choice, 10/1 Indian Spark, Oeuf A La Neige, Prospect Place, 20/1 Seafield Towers, 100/1 Pays D´Amour .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There was plenty to like about the way JOHN KEATS broke his losing run at Newcastle on his most recent outing and, although he's 8lb higher, he's still well treated on the pick of his form and he's taken to follow up at the expense of Ellens Academy and Charles Parnell. [RY]

Not in the Palmetto Point category of price gap

500 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Midnight Sky, 5/1 Comptonspirit, 6/1 By The Edge, 13/2 Princess Ellis, 10/1 Dotty´s Daughter, Jojesse, Kilvickeon, Rann Na Cille, 14/1 Beechside, Warm Tribute, 66/1 Whats Your Game .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not an easy race to find a way into. Comptonspirit isn't guaranteed to confirm recent placings with the reliable By The Edge if there is no rain but it could be worth chancing RANN NA CILLE. Kevin Ryan's runner has a recent win to her name and, although disappointing last time, is interesting in the first-time blinkers back over the minimum trip. [RY]

530 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Zain, 9/2 Centenary, 6/1 Grethel, 11/1 Heaven´s Gates, Jane Of Arc, Peintre´s Wonder, 12/1 Kiss Chase, News Of The Day, Skye But N Ben, 14/1 Chookie Hamilton, 33/1 Caviar Heights, Pertemps Networks, 66/1 Mary From Maryhill .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ZAIN (nap), due to race off a 16lb higher mark from Saturday, is given the chance to vindicate the handicapper's knee-jerk reaction to his improved run last time. Centenary could pose most problems if turning out again quickly.[PJ]

decent enough price gap but again not standout

250 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Wolf River, 5/1 Nans Lady, 6/1 River Club, 16/1 Butterfly Bud, Takanewa, 25/1 Champagne Sue, Mystic, 33/1 My Maite Mickey, 66/1 Bovered, 100/1 Flying Princess, Rita Petite, Swallow Senora .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The fact WOLF RIVER has had six goes without joy will put some off at a short price, particularly given what can happen in sprint maidens at this time of season, but he appears to do nothing wrong and is clear of these on his Windsor second.[GW]

Check out the other Spotlight comment
Wolf River
Has the speed to be able to capitalise on a handy draw and this his easiest task of the season; latest clear second to Jimmy Styles given a positive slant by the winner since bolting up off 78 in a Newbury handicap and hard to beat if repeating that effort.

A better profile and a good place only bet - confirmation of whether to back to win will come from support, or lack of it in the live market. The best proile so far

320 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Toy Top, 6/1 Miacarla, 7/1 Dark Champion, 8/1 Talcen Gwyn, 10/1 Blackheath, Bollin Franny, 14/1 Stir Crazy, 16/1 Northern Chorus, 25/1 Jun Fan, Sharp Hat, 33/1 Navigation, Stanley Wolfe, Trombone Tom, 50/1 Minimum Fuss ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TOY TOP (nap), unlucky to be nabbed on the line from a higher draw over C&D early in the month, gets no penalty for last Friday's apprentice race win under the same jockey, who continues to impress. Miacarla, who chased home the selection at Thirsk, could well give her most to again if settling once more.[GW]

"will take some pegging back if repeating the dose" says Spotlight.Agfain a good price gap - negatives - 15 runner handicap.
420 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Atlantic Coast, 5/1 Court Of Appeal, 6/1 Let It Be, 8/1 Parchment, 16/1 Young Scotton, 20/1 Red Sun, Square Dealer, 50/1 College Rebel .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A bizarre event with all bar three out of the handicap. Mark Johnston, for whom Seb Sanders doesn't ride often (2-10 this Millennium), has found the perfect opening for ATLANTIC COAST to follow up his Newbury win.[GW]

This could be the bet of the day for me,

PRice gaps today that don't really mirror United NAtions (evens - - - 7/1) and Palmetto Point (15/8 - - - 6/1) .

One for me today I think would be Atlantic Coast, followed by Wolf River.
One thing I have noticed is if the live market price shortens below the betting forecast price for these horses, they do tend to win - worth monitoring.
Again there are too many price gappers to realistically think that they will all win, but let's see how they get on.

Good day for footy yesterday, Brum 2-0 up so I traded out , and Liverpool won to nil -looking extremely comfortable




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