DAY 8

Sporting Gesture 2nd yesterday - I was right to go against the fav as Hugs Destiny won at a tasty 11/1. Global Traffic a non runner. THe 815 Catterick did involve the big 2 in the betting. Brromilaw came home in the 410 Doncaster with none of my each way selections placed. With one of the market leaders a non runner in the 240 NEwbury, the each way prices became shorter - no places here. 525 Newmarket -a small winner in Redisnation - backing the 3rd and 5th fav can always open us up to one of them being a market mover and so it proved

With the place only bets, Yossi won, my concerns with Nezami were correct - he didn't even place. Centennial won and Familiar Territory I didn't get involved in. A 2/5 shot in a 5 runner race priced at 1.14 to place. This was highly suspicious. With one horse at 100/1 paying out 1.14 to effectively beat 1 other horse home to place could be seen as value but the correct odds whould have been 1.07. Suspicions regarding the new trip proved founded as the horse never placed at all. THe value of following the live betting. I just had a feeling about that.

I think I'll be concentrating solely on backing bets from now on, but remember the old laying the first betting forecast fav of the day trick - long term the stats tell you you will be infront - it proved worthwhile yesterday

EACH WAY BETTING

145 BANGOR ON DEE -BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Mud Monkey, 9/2 Park´s Prodigy, 6/1 Quite A Splash, 8/1 Muree Queen, 16/1 Bollin Fergus, Linkslade Lad, 25/1 Pertemps Networks, Strathaird, 33/1 Stand In Black, 40/1 Neat ´n Tidy, 50/1 Joella´s Lad. - Muree Queen looks positioned in the betting to be competitive at least for a place

530 LINGFIELD - BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Hessian, 7/2 Our Herbie, 6/1 Six Of Hearts, Split Briefs, 7/1 Zach´s Harmoney, 10/1 Red Current, 16/1 Amazing King, Brave Jack, Meadfoot, 25/1 Dumas, Kastan, 50/1 Dark Druid. A claimer and worth selecting away from the market leaders - Zachs Harmoney and Red Current are just before the "outsiders"

610 MARKET RASEN BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Habanero, 11/4 Edas, 3/1 Lady Romanov, 8/1 Overbranch, 12/1 Dandys Hurricane, Peak Seasons, 20/1 Ellerslie Lisa, 33/1 Richtee, 50/1 Maisemore, Sydneyroughdiamond, Zendaro, 100/1 Ray Mond, 200/1 Southbound.

With the first 3 in the betting forecast fill the first 3 places? I'm betting they don't Dandys Hurricane and Overbranch each way for me to take advantage of any poor runnings from the market leaders

205 RIPON BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Harrison George, 4/1 Jaconet, 11/2 Tadalavil, 6/1 River Gleam, 7/1 Next Of Kin, 10/1 Hasty Lady, Stormy Journey, 11/1 El Tato, 12/1 Fantasy Fighter, 25/1 Ivestar, 40/1 Shot Through, 50/1 Bahamian Ballad, 66/1 Mistress Rio.
Next of Kin and Hasty Lady each way may improve against the market leaders in a tricky maiden

450 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sweetsformysweet, 6/1 Moonlight Applause, Tenancy, 13/2 Midnight Sky, 7/1 By The Edge, 12/1 Violet´s Pride, 14/1 Champagne Sue, Chicken George, Piccolo Diamante, 20/1 Florentine Lady, 25/1 First Valentini, 33/1 Bovered, 66/1 Tatillius,
Sweetsformysweetheart should have this, I'll chance By the edge and Violets PRide each way 5th and 6th betting forecast favs who could be competitive place wise. I'm getting out early if lucky enough to hit a decent priced winner


PROGRESSIVE STAKING AND PLACE ONLY
Nezami let me down yesterday but the place only bets obliged generally.
145 BANGOR - after 2 2nd placers Mud monkey looks likely to place again.
630 LINGFIELD - Major Willy to place. It's always good to see extreme confidence in the write up - SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to get away from MAJOR WILLY here, with his latest Newmarket second looking to represent rock-solid maiden form. He finished clear of the third on that occasion and can prove too strong for Bellomi.[PSm]
Major Willy

Confirmed debut promise when chasing home highly regarded filly at Newmarket last time (clear of the third); that sets a decent standard and hard to oppose from good draw.
Fits into my HTB category - too short for progressive staking.
540 MARKET RASEN
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Tabaran, 11/4 Airedale Lad, 6/1 Champagne Rossini, 9/1 Thimblesfirth, 14/1 Crafty Lady, L´Etang Bleu, 20/1 Electrique, 25/1 Chateau, New Wish, Night Reveller, 33/1 Friedhelmo, Tijinabad, Valfonic, 50/1 Lone Soldier .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TABARAN is a notch above most of these and will appreciate the drop in class. He could be too good for Airedale Lad and Crafty Lady. [AA]

Will the drop in class to selling company do for Tabaran. He's at a price which would let me consider him for progressive staking although I do like to see a significant price gap between 1st and 2nd and it just isn't there. I will stick my neck out and go for the progressive staking win bet

335 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Royal Rock, 9/2 Off The Record, 11/2 Mastership, 7/1 Special Day, 8/1 Abunai, 10/1 El Bosque, King´s Apostle, 14/1 Kyle, Northern Dare .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard not to be impressed by the way ROYAL ROCK (nap) has won his last two races on very different surfaces and he looks the one to beat. Off The Record was rather disappointing last time and preference of the others is for Mastership, who is expected to enjoy the return to a more conventional track and the small field.[EMW]

Although not really evident here, the price gap is evident in the earlty price market, and Royal Rock looks good . I will go for the place. The horse is on a hatrick bid and multiple winners are naturally nearing the end of their winning runs with each progressive race. My concern is with the rise in weights for his most recent wide margin victory - up 11 lbs

450 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sweetsformysweet, 6/1 Moonlight Applause, Tenancy, 13/2 Midnight Sky, 7/1 By The Edge, 12/1 Violet´s Pride, 14/1 Champagne Sue, Chicken George, Piccolo Diamante, 20/1 Florentine Lady, 25/1 First Valentini, 33/1 Bovered, 66/1 Tatillius,

A decent price gap . Connections will be wanting a win out of this expensive purchase. The price gap suggests today with the drop in trip. A progressive staking win bet for me, although there is a niggle regarding a disappointing run last time out

FOOTBALL
It really is a tricky day in the Premiership today - I'm sitting pretty after doing a 9am trade on BRazil's under 17's against New Zealand - 1st Brazil goal in the first minute and 2nd goal after 6 minutes left me smiling like a Cheshire Cat. If only all win only trades could be like this! I can dream can't I?
For me The Premiership football is extremely difficult today. I haven't seen enough of the newcomers or the teams with new signings to decide who's going to falter or who's going to be the surprise package.
The fixtures are v difficult to predict or get a n angle on.
Standout is Tottenham v Derby today but Berbatov is injured. Will Defoe and Keane finally get a goal? Personally I am going to chance an under 2.5 goal trade here to probably reverse out after 20 minutes. Derby will hopefully keep it tight and I can't help thinking Spurs are a little low on confidence ( cue 3-0 first 10 minutes) Berbatov's absence will be felt I'm sure.
Lyon away to Lorient looks tasty at 700pm this evening with a lay of Lorient probably best for me, as long as the game is in running.
Manchester Derby tomorrow and all the talk on the Betfair forum is of the value in the MAn Utd price of around evens as I write. Yes United are superb although hudging them by results thus rfar doesn't show their dynamism going forward. Take the fact this is a derby at Eastlands and United would be considered good betting material. 2 clean sheets thus far for Man City. Ronaldo and Rooney missing. I'm going to chance an under 2.5 goal trade again with an eye on getting out after 20 minutes should a goal not be scored.
Liverpool v Chelsea used to be a banker bet for the under 2.5 goals trade but the new look Chelsea want to concede and have conceded plenty against opposition greatly inferior to Liverpool. I still can't help going with unders here again for the early part of the match.