30 AUG

PRince Kalouman 4th yesterday, Just Lille 2nd for each way backers, Nufoodh and Messiah GArvey unplaced, and Judgethemoment 3rd at 8/1 for each way backers made for a non too exciting each way day. PRICE GAPS - wins for Dubai Times, Zain, Wolf River, Toy Top and Atlantic Coast. John KEats came 3rd BUT the price gap near the off was not the one reflected in the betting forecast. - John Keats at 9/4, and Charles Parnell at 5/2 was not quite the 9/4 - - - 11/2 in the morning
Midnight Sky was a no bet if you saw the red highlight yesterday "not an easy race to find a way into"with Midnight Sky actually not even mentioned in Spotlight.

My thanks must go the Sven for providing a welcome boost to my betting bank yesterday. 11/8 about a premiership side against newly promited teams from to the Championship I'll take that price all day.
Pity I didn't put it up on the blog. Again it was one of those bets where you back the team before the off and them lay them after they (hopefully) score the first goal and trade the drop in price

EACH WAY BETS
Since the inception of this blog I've had a 20/1 winner, a couple of 14/1's and an 11/1 and a smattering of shorter priced winners., but I've also had yesterday's 25/1 shot at the wrong end of a photo and another 14/1 at the wrong end of a photo
615 BELLEWSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 De La Grandera, 3/1 Eskadron, 9/2 Soneva Gili, 7/1 Almanyan, 10/1 Russian Empress, 12/1 Nans Best, 14/1 Gilded Truffle, 20/1 Coral Beauty, Entre Chat, Molly Wee, Nanita Bonita, Sean Og Coulston, 25/1 Starstruck Peter, 33/1 Oriel Flow, 50/1 Oldtown Green,
Classic 3 tier - 1st tier 13/8, 3/1, 9/2 - 2nd tier 7/1 ,10/1 ,12/1, 14/1 3rd tier 20/1 bar those
I'm going to look for 2 from the 2nd tier in Almanyan and Gilded truffle
220 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Royal Indulgence, 5/1 Measured Response, 6/1 Border Edge, Sir Haydn, 13/2 Recalcitrant, 8/1 Western Roots, 9/1 General Flumpa, 11/1 Beaver, 14/1 Voice Mail, 28/1 Hey Presto.
A tight betting heat 5/1, 6/1, 6/1, 13/2, 8/1, 9/1 - very congested - I'll chance Border edge and western roots - 3rd and 5th betting forecast favs
250 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Central Force, 5/1 Willow Dancer, 6/1 Distiller, 8/1 Castara Bay, 10/1 Four Miracles, 12/1 Calculating, Shake On It, 14/1 Mardi, 16/1 Berry Hill Lass, Golan Way, 20/1 Aegis, Maid Of Ale, 25/1 Opera Crown, 33/1 Putra Laju.
As this is a handicap, I'm going to venture away from the first 5 in the betting and opt for Calculating and Shake on it each way - just before the outsiders
210 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Attacca, 5/1 Anthemion, 7/1 Barataria, Zabeel Tower, 8/1 Linden´s Lady, Lobengula, Miss Porcia, 12/1 Gifted Flame, 14/1 Adobe, Jabraan, 20/1 Brace Of Doves, 25/1 Mis Chicaf, 50/1 Senor Eduardo.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to be confident about many of these. Anthemion runs this track well and down in grade today he should give a good account under conditions that should suit, but like triple 7f course winner Attacca he may be vulnerable to the strong finish of BARATARIA.[AC]

Chance ofr a specualtive punt on Gifted flame and Adobe each way, again just before the outsiders
240 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Toy Top, 7/2 Methaaly, 4/1 Welcome Approach, 5/1 Malapropism, 8/1 Strensall, 10/1 Rothesay Dancer, 12/1 Ptarmigan Ridge, 25/1 Strawberry Patch, 33/1 Seafield Towers, Sharp Hat, 50/1 Rosie´s Result, 100/1 Compton Lad, Mutayam, Sokoke.

Remember Toy Top - yes a price gap horse and winner yesterday - I'll give him a miss today and opt for Welcome Approach ()3rd) and Strensall(5th) each way
TIPPERARY
455
Flying Cheetah each way - an Aiden OBrien horse and clearly not one of the stable stars but an each way price at around 14/1 - probably won't win but Aiden O'Brien has produced 25/1 winners in the past !
230 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Spirit Of Coniston, 5/1 Midnight Sky, 6/1 Kennington, Mystery Pips, 8/1 Ruby´s Dream, 10/1 Arfinnit, Elvina, 14/1 Bee Magic, Diamond Josh, He´s A Rocket, 20/1 Meikle Barfil, 25/1 Twinned, Violet´s Pride.

A constricted betting market here and the perceived competitiveness makes me want to back a couple of outsiders in Arfinnit and Elvina , nestled in between the 8/1 and 14/1 shots
500 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Millfield, 4/1 Blue Empire, 6/1 Green Pirate, 7/1 Scuba, 8/1 Burford Lass, Casablanca Minx, 12/1 Boreana, 16/1 Sovereignty, Wodhill Schnaps, 20/1 Ashleigh Anderson, Grand Palace, 25/1 Night In.
Burford Lass and Casablanca Minx are priced to be competitive from a place only perspective

Again there are a lot of each ways today and common sense will tell you to bail out if you get a a good priced winner or a decent payout for a bis priced placed horse

PRICE GAPS

There is a system doing the rounds based exactly on what I've been doing for the last 2 years on various blogs -ie backing price gaps in the betting forecast. It's called the Durex, or duraglit, or something like that system (just found it - the siralex system)so leave it alone - another chancer trying to extract your money from ideas that were not his! The bar steward!

A great day yesterday - read my notes re John Keats - no price gap at the off, and Midnight Sky -NOT EVEN MENTIONED BY SPOTLIGHT! I hope these are apparent to you without me needing to point out which ones to leave alone.
Unbackable prices alas on Wolf River - obviuously quite a few people had the same feelings as the Spotlight writer.
Pleasing to see ToyTop and Zain win at, relatively speaking, working mans' prices. Strange that I didn't have too much confdence in these 2 and they win at good odds

545 BELLEWSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Strike An Ark, 5/1 Sian Thomas, 13/2 Amber Trix, 7/1 Keep In Touch, 8/1 Sally´s Dream, 12/1 Mintmarsh, Zamona, 14/1 Hannah Rose, She´s The Question, 20/1 Inca Wood, Look Who´s Back, 25/1 Back To Como, Clare Dalgan, Sandy Road, 33/1 Dylan Two, Minerva Queen ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: STRIKE AN ARK, a winner on the Flat at Gowran on her penultimate start, has good overall credentials on her first run over hurdles since she was a beaten favourite for a novice event at Musselburgh early in the year. She was taking on some smart types when seventh in a Fairyhouse maiden in which De Valira beat Arrive Sir Clive at Fairyhouse last December, and had previously earned a high rating chasing by chasing home the smart Grangeclare Lark in a Grade 3 mares novice hurdle at Down Royal.

The hint of a price gap but not a horse I'd be having - coming back from a lay off, although does have RUBY RUBY RUBY RUBY on board

220 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Royal Indulgence, 5/1 Measured Response, 6/1 Border Edge, Sir Haydn, 13/2 Recalcitrant, 8/1 Western Roots, 9/1 General Flumpa, 11/1 Beaver, 14/1 Voice Mail, 28/1 Hey Presto .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A modest apprentice handicap wouldn't be the most attractive of betting mediums but something has to win and that something may well be ROYAL INDULGENCE, who won in sufficient style at Chepstow on Monday to suggest that he can defy a 6lb penalty. [MCu] You get the idea! 350 LINGFIELD BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Rockfield Lodge, 9/2 Alls Fair, 15/2 Sunny Sprite, 9/1 Farpedon, 10/1 Oceana Blue, 12/1 Raiding Party, 14/1 Imperial Mark, 20/1 Master Of Arts, 22/1 Eastbourne, 25/1 Sweet Dane, 40/1 Peer Pressure . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Unless one of the newcomers is decent - and there are one of two half-interesting ones on paper, worth a market check - this is likely to go to ROCKFIELD LODGE (nap), whose latest Haydock second is decent enough form and who had run well enough here the time before. With a BHB rating of 78, one of the newcomers will have to be around about an 85 horse at least to beat him, without the benefit of previous experience. [MCu] Note of caution - maiden race - some newcomers - worth looking for price moves, a la 16/1 system for any the bookies fancy against the hot pot 655 TIPPERARY BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Achill Island, 5/1 Technica Tweak, 6/1 I Confess, Wing Stealth, 8/1 Better Built, 10/1 Choosey Girl, Magna Cum Laude, 12/1 Glenconnor Lad, Treeko, 16/1 Coffee Tea Or Me, 20/1 Contingency Plan, Exploration, Fast Hanna, Flag Of Honour, Monkhair, Weallshookhands , SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ACHILL ISLAND is tipped to score at the third attempt. The Sadler's Wells colt is dropped back into maiden company after finishing to Lisvale in a Listed race over the course and trip three weeks ago, and it should be noted that the form of the Naas maiden in which he was second to Luz De La Luna first time out has been boosted by third-placed Alhabeeb in recording a convincing success at Tralee.\n This system I'm none too confident of using in Ireland especially big field maidens but let's see what happens - got the right jockey trainer combo I suppose - Aiden OBrien and Keiren Fallon 300 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: Evs Desperate Dan, 5/1 Danish Blues, 6/1 Rag Tag, 14/1 Nawayea, 16/1 Lady Hopeful, Luloah, 20/1 Borzoi Maestro, North Fleet, Tang, 25/1 Lord Blue Boy, Sofinella, 33/1 Jessica Wigmo, Saint Remus . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race that revolves around Desperate Dan, who has the ability to win this without coming off the bridle. Therein lies the problem though, as he has a history of finding nothing for pressure and has flattered to deceive repeatedly. The likely frenetic gallop will suit and he will never get a better chance, but he isn't one for the faint-hearted at the likely odds. DANISH BLUES is reliable enough in this grade and given they will be coming back to him in the straight, he could prove a safer each-way alternative.[PSm] None too confident regarding Desparate Dan despite a pretty healthy price gap Desperate Dan Has the raw ability to trounce this opposition but that isn´t the way he tends to operate and has flattered to deceive on numerous occasions; could win this on the bridle, but if he comes under pressure, debatable what he will find. Hardly a Palmetto Point is he? A quiet day today for the price gaps with nothing really standing out at all FOOTY Great result for me yesterday with Man City - was afraid the yougsters wouldn't perform but they were great. UEFA CUP continues today with many mismatches and an opportunity for those with balls of steel to lump on and get off after the first goal has been scored ( if the match is in running) - not recommended for the faint hearted!