6th December 2012 Footbal

It's a toughie, the ending of the group stage. Dead rubbers galore means you don't know whether to stick or twist.
bayern and Chelsea both did what sub 1.15 teams are expected to do. In Bayern's case I was not sure they would be arsed as this was a dead rubber for them.

Man Utd lost -you see what happens with nothing to play for and a derby at the weekend!

Juve's need was the greater against Shaktar and they snuck a 0-1.
Barca v Benfica 0-0 is a collector's item but again shows a distrust in a team with nothing to play for, fielding a B team.
Over 2.5 goals in at half time ( as a trade) in the Celtic match as it was 1-1 HT. Well done Celtic for winning 2-1. Superb stuff. Over 3.5 goals not a succcessful trade and perhaps a little too cavalier.

Tough matches of late - dead rubbers and Cup games.  And talking of tough matches, they don't come much tougher than the Europa League tonight.I'll be looking first at the short prices, then the domestic sides. This is a competition I don't like getting involved in, simply because it's so hard to read.

1045am - Hiroshima v Auckland City  - 1.24 home - FIFA Club World Cup.Top of the J1 League table plays 4th in the NZ league. Tough to gauge domestic form for the away side.
Hiroshima are debutants to this competition. They are playing at home. Auckland have played this competition in 2006, 2009 and 2011, and are yet to draw. They beat Al Ahli and Mazembe.

This is a mystery to me. I can only assume that the J1 League is bar far the strongest league of the 2 and to be 1st in the League, and playing at home must mean something to Hiroshima.

6pm - A.E.L. v Marseille  - 2.58 away

6pm - Bordeaux v Newcastle  - 1.8 home - Newcastle won the battle of the crocked against Wigan at the weekend and are likely to have a tough time of it tonight. Dead Rubber alert! Bordeaux and Newcastle are through. Bordeaux win the group with a win or a draw. Geordies win the group with a win. Put into the context of a Newcastle injury list which reads Gosling, Ben ArfaDaley, S Taylor, Cabaye, R Taylor and Vuckic, it is fair to assume that Alan Partidge will make wholesale changes with a tough away fixture against Fulham on the 10th. Newcastle ended a run of 7 without a win against Wigan lately. That was job done as far as returning to winning matches. Newcastle must be opposable here with nothing to play for. But then again Bordeaux have nothing to play for either. No press conferences to go by so I cannot gauge any team changes.

6pm - Dnipro v AIK  - 1.41 home - Dnipro are through as group leaders. AIK are out. Those 2 words " dead rubber" again spring to mind. All wins in the EL bar a 4-2 loss v napoli when Dnipro were 1-2 up.
6 wins in last 7 in EL at home .
2 late goals for Dnipro ensured a 2-3 away win v AIK. AIK have only managed to take points from PSV>
Nothing to play for for either side and this is another dead rubber with a question mark re motivation for both sides.

6pm - FC Copenhagen v Steaua Bucharest  - 2.18 home

6pm- Fenerbahce v Mgladbach  - 1.94 home

6pm - Hapoel Tel Aviv v Academica  - 2.24 home

6pm - Maritimo v Club Brugge  - 2.28 home

6pm - Napoli v PSV  - 1.78 home - Napoli have a really exciting team so at home are worthy of attention. Napoli are through as runners up . AIK and PSV are out. Napoli lost 3-0 away to PSV and 3-1 away to Dnipro this campaign. Their home form has seen them through. They are away to Inter on the 9th so I suggest that will take precedence over a dead rubber.
Napoli have scored and conceded in last 3 EL matches.They are unbeaten in 9 home EL matches.
PSV are on a 3 match losing run in all competitions and have a tough home match v Twente on the 9th. They lost twice to Dnipro, drew and lost tight matches v AIk and beat Napoli 3-0 at home.
A head scratcher.
Napoli are playing to keep an inbeaten home sequence in the EL,.
PSV may be fighting to end a 3 match losing sequence.
All in all it's a dead rubber and so you must tread carefully, or better still, don't tread at all!!



6pm - Plzen v Atl Madrid  - 2.64 home - rarely are Atl Madrid not favourites so there must be a story behind the odds.

6pm - Stuttgart v Molde  - 1.2 home - short priced, playing at home and must win. There's motivation for you!A win for Stuttgart sees them through , keeping their destiny in their hands and not relying on Copenhagen not winning.
2 0-0 draws the only draws in last 12 matches for Stuttgart in all competitions. A poor home run has ended with WWLW , wins against Eintracht, St Pauli in the Cup, 2-4 defeat v Hannover when 2-0 up, and 2-1 win v Augsburg.
It's not good form.

Stuttgart lost 2-0 away to Molde with 2 away goals in October. An aberration? Since then, it's 0-0 at home to Copenhagen, 0-2 away at Copenhagen and 1-5 away at Steaua.

Stuttgart are tough to read. Their recent winning run is against poorer sides. In the EL, they have had a group of poor sides so the form is flattering.
They look vulnerable and what do we make of the 2-0 loss away to Molde?

No draw in 7 EL matches for Molde. In 2012 they have conceded 0-1-2-0-2-2-2 in EL matches. They have conceded in last 9 away EL matches, losing 2-1 to copenhagen and 2-0 to Steaua lately.

If Stuttgart show the form they are capable of, it looks like they could score 2 tonight at least. Their need is the greater and we have seen in the CL group stages that losses in previous head to heads have been turned around when need meets no need!
Look perhaps to a scoreline starting at 2 goals for the home side. Molde may score which would add to the German nail biting.
I repeat that Stuttgart look unreliable and 1.2 is a good lay price but alas reliable on a poor Molde.

6pm - Udinese v Liverpool  - 2.06 away - this is not Ted Rodger's priority - a hint that Udinese may rest some of their better players with the competition over for them. Liverpool need a win , simple as that, to progress and it is clear that they have been improving of late domestically. They have in their ranks some real star quality such as Suarez, Sterling, Shelvie.Only 1 win in last 8 for Udinese in a run which has seen 8 over 2.5 goals matches in 10.
In 8 of their last 10 in all competitions, both teams have scored.
Udinese have continued their goal laden matches in the EL , 2-3 v Liverpool , 3-1 loss to Young Boys, 2-3 home loss to Young Boys, and 2-0 loss to Anzhi.
Vulnerable in defence both domestically and in Europe. And when you are conceding 2+ in each match, it makes it extremely hard to win the matches.
Only 2 losses at home in the EL though since 2000 included a last time out defeat by Young Boys.
Only 2 defeats in last 8 for the Reds in all competitions included a 1-0 v Anzhi and 2-1 v Spurs.
Liverpool have not won their last 5 away in all competitions and had real trouble scoring in the last 4 matches.
Liverpool must be rueing a 2-2 draw with Young Boys courtesy of an 88th minute goal. That has put them into this position away from home. 2-3 defeat by Udinese and 1-0 loss v Anzhi so far.
This is "likely to change squad in a meaningless match" v Motivated in a must win.
No Stevie Gerrard apparently or Agger or Lucas for Liverpool.
Tough to predict. I always tend to lay the team who does not need the win. The mentality may be the difference.
Will Udinese continue to be involved in matches where both teams score, as well as over 2.5 goals matches?

6pm - Young Boys v Anzhi Makhachkala  - 2.32 home - strange odds in a couple of matches suggests some teams do not need a win.

805pm - Ath Bilbao v Sparta Prague  - 1.89 home

805pm - Genk v FC Basel  - 2.72 the draw - yesterday the draw was nearly odds in in the Shaktar v Juve match and that finished 0-1. Can we lay the draw when the draw is favourite?

805pm - Inter v Neftchi Baku  - 1.4 home - 2nd place guaranteed and no way of leading the group. Neftchi are out with 2 points.
After 10 consecutive wins, it's now LDLLW , a 1-0 home win v Palermo. Not a crisis as such. 3-2 loss and 2-2 draw suggest bad luck, 3-0 loss to Rubin - well look at Inter in the Group, they cannot be touched in 2nd place, and a 1-0 away loss to parma care of a 75th minute goal.
Inter are at home to Napoli on the 9th December and that match is far more important. Another dead rubber match .

Inter won 1-3 away, since then Neft have kept it tight with 2 1-0 defeats by rubin and a 1-1 v partizan.

Nowt to play for for either side and I am wary about backing an Inter side who have such an important home match 3 days away.

805pm - Levante v Hannover  - 2.16 home

805pm - Leverkusen v Rosenborg  - 1.48 home - leverkusen are through as runners up, and Rosen cannot progress. another dead rubber!
0-1 away win in last head to head.

Rosenborg have scored in last 3 matches in EL, all defeats.  Tough to call this one as it is another dead rubber and Leverkusen have a league match in 3 days time away from home.


805pm - Lyon v Hapoel Kiryat Shmona  - 1.25 home - through as group leaders. My Shmona are out. This is about playing at home , pleasing the fans and maintaining a Europa League record although the Europa website does not elaborate on that record.
Lyon are away to St Etienne in 3 days - will we see team changes?
Lyon have only lost 3 since July 2012, 2 of those away.
9 wins and a loss to Bordeaux in last 10 home matches. 2 consecutive 2-1 wins at home in the EL, and have conceded at home in last 4 EL matches. Unbeaten in last 5 EL matches, both sides have scored in each of those matches. Were 1-3 up against this lot last time out away at theirs only for the match to end 3-4.
Only 3 wins in 16 for Shmona.Only 1 win in 7 away in all competitions.

No win in 5 EL matches in 2012. Have conceded in all of those matches. DL away so far, going down 3-1 to Sparta Prague.

Lyon should win easily . Slight question marks about whether they'll be fielding a weakened side. I cannot get any info on that. Scored easily enough away in Israel and could replicate that and get at least 3 at least.

Ahh those magic words  dead rubber!! Shmona are Shmit! No 2 ways about it.

805pm - NK Maribor v Lazio  - 2.36 away

805pm - Partizan Belgrade v Rubin Kazan  - 2.76 away

805pm - Rapid Vienna v Metalist  - 1.91 away

805pm - Sp Lisbon v Videoton  - 1.81 home

805pm - Tottenham v Panathinaikos  - 1.35 home  - 9 - 7-5-4 the points tally for this group with Spurs on 7 and Pana on 5. This therefore becomes a must win for both sides so worthy of investigation. Spurs are through with a win or a draw. Pana are through with a win.
3 consecutive wins in the Premiership , scoring 3-2-3 see Spurs in fine fettle. Defore has scored 4 goals and is in great form. Only Chelsea and Wigan have beaten Spurs in their last 12 home matches in all competitions. My slight concern is that Pana, being Greek, are eminently capable of doing a Wigan, stifling Spurs then nicking a goal.

Spurs are undefeated in 2012 Europa League but have drawn 4 matches and only beaten Maribor. This should ensure a solid home performance tonight.
Panathanaikos away have lost 3-0 to Maribor and Lazio in this competition. 1.35 suggests Spurs can get near to that mark. A 1-1 home draw with Spurs care of a 77th minute goal.

Spurs play Everton in 3 days time, so they will be rueing the fact that early draws in the competition were not converted to wins. They are expected to field their strongest side tonight, get the win, then perhaps be more vulnerable than expected against Everton? They cannot let Pana win, and Pana seem a tad lacklustre if their 1-0 home win against minnows Maribor is anything to go by.

Look for 2/3 goals from the home side and the potential for a clean sheet. Clearly in great form, the hope is Spurs continue into tonight and field a strong enough side .

805pm - Twente v Helsingborgs  - 1.62 home