Yesterday was a great example of being disciplined. There were so many Champions League matches on, but I didn't touch a single one of them. A surprise that Real Madrid won, I guess Ajax outside of Holland are not all that.
Today sees some CL matches which actually mean something. I will not be focussing on the dead rubbers today as that is simply a waste of time.
9am - India U19 (W) v Myanmar U19 (W) - 1.04 away - the suggestion as ever is for tonnes of goals from Myanmar. Teenage women playing football. They might be distracted if Justin "TWAT" Bieber comes to watch.
No draw in 12 for India and that was spread over a number of years.In 2012, they beat Uzbekistan 1-0 and lost 7-0 to Taiwan and 10-0 to Vietnam.
In contrast, Myanmar drew 1-1 with Taiwan and beat Vietnam 1-2. They recently scored 8 against Hong Kong so there is a big score in those Myanmar ladies.
950am - Chinese Taipei v Guam - 1.37 home - Guam are what we call in footballing parlance " pants". 4 clean sheets in 5 head to heads and all wins for Chinese Taipei ( also known as Taiwan). This is the east asian cup. Both sides have been poor so far with Taiwan losing 1-6 to Korea, their great leader Kim Jung il scoring all the goals.
Guam have lost 1-2 to Hong Kong and 5-0 to the same Korea side.
Recent wins for Guam have come against Northern Mariana Islands and Macao.
2 poor teams and a shaky 1.37 in what will be an illiquid market. A chance could be taken on 4+ goals today in the hopes Guam remain as bad as they have historically been, but placing your trust in Taiwan is a little cavalier.
11am - Kasimpasa v Bayrampasa - 1.11 home - Bursaspor yesterday were totally dominant away. We have another top flight side this time at home in the Turkish Cup.5th in the top flight play 14th in the 2 Lig Table.
Obvious advantage for home side but let's see if they are "up for the cup".
Unbeaten in 6 so in reasonable form. 3 score draws in last 4 is something they will seek to end ( and are priced to end) today.
Only 1 loss in the last 9 at home in all competitions was against Besiktas.
Only 1 win in 12 in the cup means that they are either up for the cup or playing consistently poorer sides. Only 1 defeat in 8 at home in the Cup and recent goalscoring tallies of 2-3-1-4-5 augurs well for a 1.11 shot today.
3 wins in last 13 for Bayram who have kept a clean sheet in last 2 matches ( hey they need to start somewhere!).
They have failed to score in 3 of the last 4 aways. 2012 is their first year in the cup I think, and it's 0-0 ( go through 1-0 extra time) and 1-0 with a 76th minute goal. Goals the problem in the cup and likely these 1.11 odds today are accurate and reflect a possible defeat to nil? REmember this is a Cup game and in Turkey but some of the major teams have performed as per their odds.
1130am - North Korea v Australia - 2.68 home - the east asian cup and this cannot be the top side from Australia, who struggled and scored a late goal against Hong Kong when priced to muller them. North Korea are strong relatively speaking, probably down to their rather rotund silly haircutted great leader .
No defeat in 11 now in all competitions, with 8 wins and 6 clean sheets. In this actual competition Korea has won 1-6 against Taipei and 5-0 against Guam.
Kim Jong-Un of course scored all 11 goals whilst blindfolded and with both legs tied together.
Australia have won 4 of their last 5, against Lebanon, Iraq, Korea Republic and Hong Kong. The latter , an 85th minute winner, is not convincing at all and perhaps Aussies are without their major league performers. The odds suggest a very tight match, and I would slightly favour North Korea with their winning streak and Australia's suggested weaknesses. This could be a drawn out 0-0 with goals hard to come by. No head to heads.
4pm - Belenenses v Covilha - 1.49 home - I thought this was a cup game as Belenenses used to be a top flight side but this is Portugeuse Division 2.
2nd v 3rd from bottom hence the odds.
Last 2 2012 head to heads have been 0-0 and prior to that, Covilha won twice. Different circumstances this campaign?
Only 2 defeats in last 23 matches for Belenenses. They have kept 8 clean sheets in the last 10 matches. They are unbeaten at home in 11 , winning their last 9 and keeping 8 clean sheets. For me, this signals odds shorter than 1.49 especially against 3rd bottom.
Only 4 wins for the away side in their last 25 matches all came with clean sheets. They have conceded 2-2-3 in their last 3 matches. On 2 occasions recently they have had a run of 4 and 5 draws, so a draw, like in head to heads, is not out of the realms of possibility. 4 defeats on the trot now. Only 2 wins in 32 away matches, both 0-1. 7 of the last 8 draws have been score draws. Have not conceded more than 2 away in last 27 matches.
Something to work with here?
Possible clean sheet for the home side , 0-0 may not be discounted but the probability of a 3rd consecutive 0-0 ( as per head to heads) diminishes with each future match.
Away side unlikely to concede more than 2 goals.
Laying the away side an option although odds probably a bit high. 0-0 can be speculated for the back to lay trader in the hope that this might resemble head to heads of recent past. away side likely to struggle to score and could hold out for a while.
530pm - Cagliari v Pescara - 1.71 home - Pescara beaten well away to Napoli at the weekend. More woe in store ? Napoli got 5.
Italian cup match. Only 1 head to head of relevance was in 2012 and a 1-2 Pescara win away in the league. all 2nd half goals.
No win in 5 for Cagliari in all competitions . At home, they have failed to score last 2. Kept Napoli out until the 73rd minute ( remember Napoli scored 5 against Pescara at the weekend)
Only 1 draw in 15 cup matches. Only 2 defeats in the cup at home came in last 4 matches. No draw in 8.
Only 1 win in last 9 in all competitions for Pescara - all Seria A matches, so a degree of respite in the Cup?
Heavy defeats to Juve and Napoli bookend 2 1-0 defeats to Siena and Roma. It is those I would focus on with a view to their optimum performance today. Cagliari are not the same level as napoli or Juve.
Only 1 win in last 6 away was , ahem, a 1-2 v Cagliari. Pescara have only scored 1 in their last 4 matches though since then, all defeats.
Wins in the cup against the likes of pavia, Mezzocorona, and Carpi ( who they?)
So, take account that Pescara beat Cagliari away in the league last time out - what are the chances of that again? Note Pescara's recent 1-0 losses - could be a clue to them being tough to beat if " up for the cup". Cagliari like to avoid draws , only 1 draw in 15 in the cup.
Could be a tight match this one ( as the odds suggest) with any breakthrough being relatively late on). Pescara in the cup have only tended to beat poorer opponents. Tight match and draw or Cagliari tight win.
745pm - B Munich v BATE Borisov - 1.13 home - the only angles in here are a) revenge and b) BATE securing Europa League qualification with a win. Bayern lost to BATE last time out and, at home, with 70,000 odd fans baying for blood, I cannot see BATE winning this match , despite it being relatively meaningless for Bayern Munich.
Of course, if you think motivation supercedes revenge, then 1.13 is eminently layable , especially given the trouble Bayern had last time.
Last game of the season for BATE so I think 1.13 is a little short for Bayern ( they may yet win and I suspect will be backable at higher odds).
Dead rubber for Bayern! Remember that. bayern coach said nothing about team changes although I suspect he will change some of the players, and mentioned nothing about wanting to win the match.
1.13 usually points to 3/4 goals and a possible win to nil. I cannot see it tonight though.
745pm - Barcelona v Benfica - 1.54 home - barca through as group winners and unbeaten at the Nou Camp in 18 European fixtures. Benfica have head to head superiority over Celtic so will go through if matching celtic's performance or winning. Barca coach hints at a changed side with players returning from injuries as well as some B players getting a run out tonight. Messi is nearing Gerd Muller's record of 85 goals in a calendar year so perhaps pencil him in for a goal if he plays.
Barca at home have only lost to Real Madrid in recent history. They have conceded in last 6 home matches. Last defeat at home in the CL was agianst Rubin Kazan.
Beat Benfica 0-2 away recently but then they had to win.
No draw in last 13 for Benfica and only 2 defeats., both in the CL.
5 clean sheets in last 6 aways in all competitions.
Benfica's last 2 matches in the CL were at home, adn were wins.
It is highly unlikely that they will beat Barcelona, but they are likely to put up firm resistance. This is yet another match where one team has nothing to play for and the other team has everything to play for. The changes to Barca personnel could be their Achilles Heel.Goals normally expected and a 2-1 scoreline either way could be a goer.
745pm - Braga v Galatasaray - 2.44 away
745pm - Celtic v Spartak Moscow - 1.65 home - Celtic must win really to progress above Benfica. Spartak are going nowhere , they have nothing to play for and have a new coach. Their coach says he will not be experimenting, apart from "2 or 3 new players".
Celtic's performances against Barcelona should instill in them the self belief tonight. Neil Lennon contends that this will be an " open" match, ergo goals? Look for Celtic's focus on NOT conceding and then on finishing at the other end. they'd better be better than they were in the Scottish Cup where they drew 1-1 with Arbroath, albeit with an eye on tonight.
No win in 3 overall at home for CEltic . Unbeaten in the CL in 5 home matches, tending to score 2.Spartak have lost their last 3 matches in all competitions, all at home. In the CL, they have only drawn once in 2012. They failed to score in recent defeats against Barca and Benfica. Celtic won 2-3 away at Spartak care of a 71st minute own goal and a 90th minute winner. Spartak are likely to be tough to beat this evening. Celtic could be involved in another goal laden match, and have scored 2 in previous home matches. A chance on overs here, perhaps over 3.5 goals given the recent 2-3, and a Celtic need to win.
745pm - Chelsea v FC Nordsj - 1.11 home - Chelsea need to win and hope Juventus lose at Shakhtar as their head-to-head record is inferior to both clubs above them.
So says the CL website. A benitez Chelsea side are 1.11. Ok. So under rafa they have scored 0-0-3 in 3 matches. Yes, Chelsea are unlikely to allow Nordsj a sniff at goal, and CHelsea did score first away at West Ham which may augur well tonight.
3 consecutive draws at home for Chelsea and 2 consecutive 0-0's should provide enough ammunition for this to end this evening.
Only 2 defeats at home in 26 CL matches makes Chelsea confident this evening. 0-1 losses to Inter and Man Utd suggest the first goal is a shut out, the 2nd to score first.
Chelsea have scored first in the 5 2012 CL home matches. Only one draw for Nordsj was at home to Juve, they have conceded 2-4-4-5 in the other matches. 1.11 of course suggests 4 goals minimum and a possible win to nil as Chelsea managed away last time out at Nordsj.
New manager syndrome a concern for Chelski.A lack of goals under Rafa. 2 consecutive home 0-0's should end emphatically this evening if the forward line starts clicking.
745pm - Lille v Valencia - 2.58 away - Lille have nowt to play for. A hint that the manager will make changes because he acknowledges there are a number of matches throughout december for his Lille side. Valencia are on same points as Bayern but Bayern are at home, at 1.13, against BATE. Something is up at Valencia. They have an acting head coach tonight. You could argue this is a dead rubber match and the 2.58 for Valencia suggests as much. Move on I think!
745pm - Man Utd v CFR Cluj - 1.69 home - the bookies always leave clues. United are through, so their odds have crept up compared to what they would be if this match meant something to them. There is a derby at the weekend and Old Red Nose will be making changes. this makes this another match to steer clear of in favour of matches featuring teams who need the win or need something from the match.
745pm - Shakhtar v Juventus - 1.99 draw - hmmm, very interesting that the draw is the shortest priced here. One of these teams ( or both) will drop points today. Chelsea need Shaktar to win this evening to have any chance of qualifying in the last 16. Chelsea face Nordsj .Shakhtar are through and will clinch first place with a win or a draw. Juve will finish first with a win , and be through with a draw. They will also go through if they lose and Chelsea fail to beat Nordsj.
A draw suits both sides and for me Juve are the team with most need. Perhaps a bias towards them will prove worthwhile.
All in all an interesting night and another night of some dead rubbers which are best left alone.
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