Strongest horse racing bet for me today looks to be 255 LIMERICK Morning Supreme to place only. I would wait until nearer race time as the Sunday markets are very illiquid.
Start with the footy today
1205pm - Rangers v Dundee United - 1.43 - home advantage in this Cup game. Despite a good league position and generally good results, Dundee have lost to an aggregate of 10 goals in the 2 games they have played against Rangers, indicating that Rangers have their measure.
Cup game today.
130pm- Man Utd v Fulham - 1.25 - all similarly priced teams yesterday were leading at some point in their games ( for example Olympiakos were 2-1 up, eventually succumbing 2-2, and a prime example of why I do insist upon trading) A must win for United given that Arsenal and Chelsea both won ( Arsenal away as well) so United expected to win their home games
United have won their last 6 games at home and never scored less than 3 goals in each of those games
Have lost 3-0 to Fulham at Craven Cottage. An aberration? 6 draws, 7 away losses and a solitary win. A lot of draws equal possible tightness away.
4pm - Lille v Grenoble - 1.35 - a win today takes Lille 4th in a very tight top of the league - so when expected to win, and with home advantage, Lille MUST win. Won 7 of their last 8 home games with a 2-1 loss at home last time.
Over 1.5 goals perhaps the better bet here given Lille's wonderful goalscoring exploits have deserted them recently.
5pm - Galatasary v Ankaraguku - 1.36 - unbeaten at home with only 3 1-1 draws.
Lost 3-0 to Ankaraguku at their place which is quite eyecatching!
Have won their last 4 at home.
6 draws and an away win for the away side in their last 7 games. 2 draws and an away win in their last 3 away games.
Draws are a concern here.
6pm - Barca v Valencia - 2nd v 3rd - so why are Barca so short at 1.41 . Home form, only drawn one amongst all the wins.
0-0 head to heads with Valencia.
7pm- Club Brugge v Roeslare 1.41 - I would opt for over 1.5 goals here as Brugge have drawn a few recently but these draws have been score daws.
8pm - Valladollid v Real Madrid - 1.34 away - must win for Real because 1) Barca are level on points and have a potentially tricky affair with valencia and 2) Real are out of the Champions League
7 away wins and very good scorelines v the bottom 2 ( Valladollid are 3rd from bottom)
Strong recent winning form
Valladollid have not won in their last 10 games
Their 3-0 loss to Barca at home is the kind of scoreline we should expect today.
6 NATIONS
France v Italy - like the footy, no need to dismiss 1.01 shots - just look at other markets.
France -10.5 points in 1.2 in an illiquid market
France/France half time/full time is 1.11 but remember what I have said previously about halftime/fulltime in Rugby Union. The onus is not really on the strong favs to be winning at half time, rather they focus on the 80 minute result
all of the horse racing analysis has been wiped off and I am not starting again as it took me ages. I will move on, therefore, straight to the shortlist
SHORTLIST
225 LIMERICK - Stony grey soil's price has collapsed as I write - 16/1 betting forecast into 7/2 in places.Glenlo abbey stood out
230 WARWICK - only 3 horses under 25/1 in the betting.Present to you is 1.18 to place only and is the shortest priced in a race where the 3 main protagonists cannot be split
255 LIMERICK - this should be dominated by Morning SUpreme - to place only the price is around 1.1 but the market is illiquid as it is Ireland
450 TOWCESTER - faith in the Twiston-DAvies combo in hunter chases when with strong favs? Fundamentalist is around 1.15 but no money in the place market yet.
Man Utd should continue their strong home form v Fulham
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
230 WARWICK -with only 3 horses under 25/1 here, I have plumped for the shortest priced in the place only market, PResent to you - the hope is this race is dominated by these 3 and there are no jumping errors
255 LIMERICK - Morning supreme is 1/2 in an 8 runner race ( 3 places) and has an outstanding chance of placing
Man Utd to beat Fulham 1.25
450 TOWCESTER - faith in the Twiston-DAvies combo in hunter chases when with strong favs? Fundamentalist is around 1.15 but no money in the place market yet.
Man Utd should continue their strong home form v Fulham
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
230 WARWICK -with only 3 horses under 25/1 here, I have plumped for the shortest priced in the place only market, PResent to you - the hope is this race is dominated by these 3 and there are no jumping errors
255 LIMERICK - Morning supreme is 1/2 in an 8 runner race ( 3 places) and has an outstanding chance of placing
Man Utd to beat Fulham 1.25
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