I personally would not make my mind up until nearer 630pm as much can happen in the next 6 hours so please note that Cheviot is not the one a day selection today
This leaves the footy, and the only game of interest for me is Real Madrid to beat Lyon at 1.31 at home (745pm Champions League)
This would be my best bet of the day, and from a personal perspective I would back Real Madrid in the match odds market and hope to trade out after they hopefully score first.
So if you are familiar with trading, then do join me in this as the OFFICIAL ONE A DAY bet today. Trading, although not a pre requisite, is suggested
Despite the nuimber of races avaialble today, it is a difficult , or rather a niggly card today from my place only betting perspective.
210 FONTWELL
I am having trouble copying and pasting the betting forecast but have chosen this race as a possible because the original favourite Piper Royal is a non runner . Piper Royal was only one of 5 under 25/1 in the betting forecast and Stormhoek was original joint favourite. A Thornton/King horse so must be respected. Around 1.18 to place and one of only 3 horses under 14/1 in the market as I write.
2 miles 6 furlongs is a long way to go for novice hurdlers.
No significant form for Stormhoek which would make me think he is unstoppable, just the notion that he is the better horse versus other lesser animals today
3 of the 10 runners are 50/1 or bigger aand can hopefully be discounted. This leaves 7 horses and 3 places, and only 3 horses under 14/1 who surely must be the focus of us place backers' attentions?
320 CATTERICK
A price gapper here in the live market with Otto Quercus 10/11 with next best 5/1 -only 2 places mind , and a long absence for the clear market leader - it is the absence that is the niggle here for me today for this price gapper ( but the market expects!!) 1.36 to place tells us this is no gimme and is only a 2 the place race
630 WOLVES
Cheviot is 9/4 in the racing post betting forecast but the live betting shows him at 4/5 and "all red" at the betting site which indicates this early on some strong concerted support. 2 places only Last run 27th June 2009 so connections expect today for sure. 1.29 to place but guide only ( let's face it ,there's some 7+ hours til race time so the market cannot possibly be liquid.)
This race actually interests me were I to be in the position to come back to it nearer the off. I suspect that Cheviot's price may continue to shorten throughout the day - there has already been significant support for the horse and it's not even 1130am UK time!!
Racing Post spotlight gives us a clue " market useful"
Well, Cheviot is battered into 10/11 favouratism which is significant given he is coming back from a lay off.
Quite a price gapper in the live betting market 10/11 - - - - 5/1
If the market is an accurate reflection of this horse's ability after a lay off, then he should be a good place only c0ntender with Nial Callan in the plate.
FOOTBALL
745pm - Real Madrid v Lyon - 1.31 - 1-0 away loss hardly catastrophic - Real just didn't score the away goal. Home form is imperious though in the league. Lyon have won 6 and drawn 2 of their last 8 in the french league.
Real have scored 25 goals in their last 7 domestic matches and scored 14 in their last 4 home matches - 1.2 over 1.5 goals ( if Lyon score first Real will have to reply)
Real should really gain compensation tonight and I would approach this from a trading perspective, backing Real and laying off atfter they hopefully score first
745pm - Man Utd v AC Milan - lay Milan at 5.4
Man Utd nailed Milan away from home and pretty much put this tie to bed. Consolidate this evening at home in what is NOT a must win, but a must not lose by too many!!
1030pm - Flumenense v Confianca - 1.18 home side - Brazilian Cup match in running on betfair and we know all about under 1.20 odds by now - signals 2 or more goals win for the home side.
I am not an expert in Brazilian football though.
SHORTLIST
I have the feeling with Stormhoek that he is the best of a bad bunch and ,given this is a 2 mile 6 furlong novices hurdle ( and despite Choc Thornton being on board and it being 3 under 14/1) I am not overtly confident here
Otto Quercus has an absence to overcome in this chase and ,with only 2 places in the offing for us, I am reluctant to put this one forward
This leaves Cheviot in the 630 Wolves. Now if we put all of the clues together ,we can make a good case for Cheviot
- 232 in his last 3 races BUT ON TURF ONLY
- really battered into 10/11 , now 4/5 and this on return from an absence.
- "all red" at the racing psot betting site signifies sustained support and backing all morning
BUT only 2 places
I cannot put this one forward with some 6+ hours before the race is due to go off. It is, though, something I would speculate on I think ( so NOTE, not rock solid but may be worthy of a gamble)
This leaves the football
Real Madrid must win this evening to go through , and not concede. 1.31 therefore is reasonable. Home form is superb and they have been scoring freely in the league CONSISTENTLY
No comments:
Post a Comment