25/6

2 good horse races in my view today for place only betting - one is the 505 Doncaster which is only 2 places which is the negative, particularly given it is a maiden. The 805 Newmarket is the BEST probability race of the day where we have 7 runners, 3 places, 2 250/1 outsiders - a 4 horse race it looks like for 3 places - a great chance with a well thought out selection. A selection has a better chance of placing than not placing.

Elsewhere the North Koreans look layable in the match odds market at 1.09 equivalent bet but the Ivorians have been poor. However, the incentive is clearly with them, and they must beat North Korea by 7+ goals and hope Brazil beat Portugal. Under 4.5 goals for the Swiss v Honduras might be a good call this evening. 2 poor attacking sides.

With a debutant in Henry Morgan looming, I will have tpo swerve the 505 Doncaster. Engulf looks good but I would side with Alkhataaf to place at bigger odds hoing it is a match up


*****ONE A DAY - expect an update at 700pm regarding the evning football and the 805 Newmarket which is an outstanding probability race.*****


Correct choice made yesterday after much umming and aahing. The horse race alternative came 4th and I did put a mention in regarding listed and high class races and their inherent competitiveness, but the important final decision was correct. 0-0 New Zealand Match and under 4.5 nowhere near being breached.

As far as horse racing alternatives are concerned, this is something I would rather not do, and have done only in response to a suggestion from a single subscriber. Like yesterday, I was just not happy with the horse Sajjhaa to have put him up as the official one a day but felt obliged to put up a horse racing alternative. The very fact I decided on football should have signalled that I was not wholly happy with the horse. If you want a horse racing alternative to football bets, then look immediately at the shortlist. You know by now that , at times, I am just too fussy and yesterday was just such a case as shortlisters Scorn placed ( ignored as 2 place race), Parvooz won ( ignored due to absence) , Seta won ( ignored as listed race -inherent competitiveness) , Saajhaa unplaced, 650 Tipp the mentions were 1st and 2nd , 800 Hamilton, 2nd fav 1st, 1st fav 2nd, 3rd fav 3rd , 820 Tipp the ballydoyle mention Big Occasion won , 830 Hamilton Cockney placed ( ignored as 2 place race) , 840 Leicester Sonoran Sands 2nd and placed.

As you can see, the one I chose is the only one of the shortlist not to place yesterday, so in future, those who want a horse racing alternative when I have chosen the one a day from another sporting arena, should look at the shortlist and decide for themselves.



Dolgopolov yesterday put up a superb performance to come from 2 sets down to level the match 2-2 only going down 10-8 in the 5th . Perfect for those who backed Dolg at the off and traded out after 2-2

210 MARKET RASEN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Calzaghe, 5/2 Hannicean, 4/1 Bandanaman, 5/1 Treeko, 33/1 James Junior, Pay The Russian, Remark, 50/1 Camomile.

DIOMED VERDICT: BANDANAMAN looks worth chancing in a weak seller. Despite being a seller this is an interesting race as there are only 4 horses under 20/1 at time of writing. 220 DONCASTER BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Tanfeer, 7/2 Royal Liaison, 5/1 Shameful, 7/1 Bakoura, 10/1 Deva Le Deva, Loukoumi, 14/1 Bilidn, 20/1 Evening Dress, 33/1 Bigalo´s Laura B, 66/1 Till Dawn. DIOMED VERDICT: TANFEER takes the eye on pedigree and is taken to get the better of the more experienced Royal Liaison. Significant non runner in provisional 3rd fav makes Tanfeer and Royal Liaison of interest. Tanfeer is a debutant but Royal has had 2 runs and Hayley turner on board for Michael Bell is interesting. 250 DONCASTER BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Red Scintilla, 4/1 Tamarind Hill, 6/1 Drumpellier, 7/1 Bilash, Dies Solis, 12/1 Itsthursdayalready, Swansea Jack, Tislaam, 20/1 Daisy Brown, Kings ´n Dreams, 33/1 On The Piste. DIOMED VERDICT: RED SCINTILLA can follow up her Warwick win at the chief expense of Bilash 2nd provisional fav is a non runner and Red Scintilla is 9/4 fav at present - running under a penalty but has been progressing and may take a hand in the places with only 6 horses under 14/1 305 FOLKSTONE BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Abbondanza, 11/4 Piazza San Pietro, 5/1 Cut The Cackle, 8/1 Dusty Spirit, Little Edward, Timeteam, 16/1 Fault. DIOMED VERDICT: PIAZZA SAN PIETRO remains in decent form and, with conditions ideal, makes most appeal. it is my contention that winning runs will end and the longer the winning run, the sooner it will end. Abbondanza is on a 4 timer today and, with only 3 horses under 12/1 at time of writing, perhaps it will be worth chancing bertting forecast 2nd fav Piazza San Pietro to place. 400 DONCASTER BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Whoateallthepius, 9/4 Falkland Flyer, 7/2 Saucy Buck, 4/1 Dffar. DIOMED VERDICT: WHOATEALLTHEPIUS was the subject of much interest at the auction after hosing up in a Windsor seller and could be too good for these. The fav was one of the easiest winners you will see all year in his last run for Richard Hannon. Now odds on in this 50/50 race - 4 horses and 2 places and has Ryan Moore in the plate. This is a little tougher than a seller but the market vibes and jockey booking suggests he may be up to the challenge. 445 FOLKSTONE BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Dazzling Begum, 9/4 Amazing King, 11/2 Ubiquitous, 8/1 Catholic Hill, 12/1 Starburst, Valkyrie, 14/1 Vinces, 33/1 Dora Explora. DIOMED VERDICT: DAZZLING BEGUM won readily here last time and can defy a 5lb hike. Only 3 under 12/1 but added complications in this handicap of some carrying penaltys 505 DONCASTER BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Engulf, 2/1 Alkhataaf, 8/1 Henry Morgan, 12/1 Nicholas Pocock, 33/1 Billys Flyer, 50/1 Happy The Man. DIOMED VERDICT: ENGULF is expected to prove too strong for Alkhataaf Trusting the market to be accurate has paid off these last few days and here there are only 2 under 14/1 here in Engulf and Alkhataaf. Which to chose? Only 2 places and we have to assume here that the front 2 will dominate if selecting either one to place. Engulf is odds on and may be the default choice. Both market leaders dropping in trip and progressive Engulf - 22 last 2 races and Alkhataaf is 432 730 CURRAGH BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Moonlit Garden, 3/1 Looking Lovely, 11/2 Emerald Ring, 6/1 Purple Glow, 7/1 Seeharn, 8/1 Galloping Queen, 10/1 Khelino, 12/1 Gatamalata, 25/1 Foot Perfect. 2 big stables first and 2nd in the betting here and this needs reinvestigating nearer to 720pm. 735 NEWMARKET BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Calatrava Cape, 5/2 Shelfah, 7/2 Trovare, 10/1 Banana Republic, Higgy´s Ragazzo, 16/1 Retrato, DIOMED VERDICT: CALATRAVA CAPE (nap) looked a well-handicapped filly in winning here last week and can defy the penalty. Only 3 horses under 14/1 here for the 2 places? 805 NEWMARKET BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Rio Mist, 11/4 Swiss Diva, 7/2 Bounty Box, 5/1 Flambeau, 10/1 Angus Newz, Yer Woman, 200/1 Gessabelle, Slap And Tickle. DIOMED VERDICT: BOUNTY BOX still has aspirations of making up into a black type performer and she can confirm the promise of her latest spin over 7f. Interesting race for place only backers. 8 runners and 3 places. 2 quite clear outsiders at 200/1 or bigger, leaves 6 horses running for 3 places. 2 of the 6 are 16/1 and hopefully can be discounted , leaving 4 for 3 places ( in a ideal world of course!!!) Flambeau is the one for money - all red at the moment and backed into 3/1 830 NEWCASTLE BETTING FORECAST: Evs Secretive, 4/1 Templetuohy Max, 5/1 Reel Buddy Star, 8/1 Just Bond, 10/1 Olympic Dream, Rosko, DIOMED VERDICT: SECRETIVE (nap) takes on older horses for the first time on the back of a career-best effort in the Britannia. Mark Johnston favourite always grabs my attention, particularly when they are price gappers. Royston Ffrench takes the ride. 840 NEWMARKET BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Speed Dating, 6/1 Bollin Dolly, Sircozy, 8/1 Folio, 10/1 Dancing Jest, Laish Ya Hajar, 12/1 Truly Asia, 20/1 Monte Cavallo, Sonny Parkin, 33/1 Valmari. DIOMED VERDICT: SPEED DATING has got his act together since being fitted with headgear and he can complete his hat-trick this time. Winner 3 days ago and now only one of 3 under 14/1 at time of writing. FOOTBALL North Korea v Ivory Coast - 1.43 - according to North Korean media reports, the victorious North Korean team are marching forward after a stunning 20-0 win over Portugal . Their leader, Kim Jung il, scored all 20 goals and is to be praised. Ivory Coast will need to better Portugal's 7-0 drubbing of the North Koreans to have a slim chance of qualification and hope Brazil beat Portugal too. The onus is very much with the Ivorians here , and while there is hope, then they should continue. Drogba could have a field day today if getting the ammo. Chile v Spain - a very open Group H here sees Chile ideally needing just a point to ensure qualification, Spain needing a win to ensure ( key word) their position, and Switzerland needing a win and Spain to draw or lose, to grab 2nd place. We saw in the Paraguay v New Zealand match that Paraguay only needed a draw and played accordingly. But I don't think holding on is in the Chilean makeup. The heart says goals but the mind reminds me this is a wierd World Cup and a Spanish side who have squandered so many chances. Spain are 1.54 and have a cklear historical advantage over Chile, winning six and drawing 2. TENNIS 12pm - De Bakker v Isner -1.78. After beating Mahut in a tennis match that lasted 3 years, John Isner is rightly 2nd fav today, and surely is up against it ? This makes De Bakker's odds very appealing , also from a trading perspective. Laying 3-0 Isner sets is 8 in odds but there is only £32 available to lay. 2 Selections Chosen 1 Djokovic v Montanes (Backing Novak Djokovic @ 1.04) 2 Clijsters v Kirilenko (Backing Kim Clijsters @ 1.06) Doubles Selections Odds* Stake Potential win 1 and 2 1.12 £100.00 £12.00 *Odds shown are indicative and may vary. More info 1.12 bet this one. You should know by now, that I am no tennis expert. I just go by the odds. I know Djokovic though and Kim Clijsters . SHORTLIST 210 MARKET RASEN is very interesting as this is an 8 runner race and there are 3 places. In this 8 runner race , only 4 horses are under 33/1 and these 4 should be the ones fighting out the 3 places. As you can imagine in a selling hurdle these 4 all have niggles , lack of form, regressive form etc. Calzaghe was a solid contender a few runs ago, and was a poor 21 length loser in a selling hurdle last time out. Has McCoy on board, but even McCoy cannot really impact on horses who are out of form . The place only market has these 4 horses all odds on, with next best at 8/1!! This is simply a race where you take an opinion and hope the horse you selected finishes in the first 3 in a race which should involve only 4. I would simply go with calzaghe as the favourite here but he is conceding a stone all round!( no other reason) and have to acknowledge that this is a poor race with poor, out of form, contenders open to mistakes. It is, though, a great probability race. 220 DONCASTER - Tanfeer is all red, odds on and Dettori on for Godolphin. All well and good until we learn the horse is a debutant. I don't like backing debutants in maidens as I don't have the requisit imformation regarding the horse's strengths/weaknesses. I only have the market to go by, and if having faith in the market, then Tanfeer is solid. Royal Liaison would be my selection of choice here as one of only 3 under 14/1 in the live market. Royal was a good 2nd last time out, and Hayley "head" Turner is a good jockey booking. 1.6 to place and Tanfeer is an eyecatching 1.22 to place - extreme market confidence in a debutant. 505 DONCASTER - another race with niggles given it is a 6 runner race for 2 places. Interesting betting market here 4/5 , 13/8 , 12/1 , 14/1 , 50/1 , 66/1 Surely the 2 outsiders can be discounted leaving 4 horses and 2 places - a 50/50 race Those 4 remaining are dominated by 2 horses in Engulf and Alkhataaf. Engulf is the one in the place only market at 1.12 with Alkhataaf at 1.22 to place. The latter is the value call if we assume this race will be dominated by these 2. Interestingly, dutching these2 horses is a 1.08 equivalent bet at time of writing ( and the market is illiquid) You will have to have faith in the market here and have faith that the race will be ran between Engulf and Alkhataaf. 735 NEWMARKET -only 3 horses under 16/1 here and one of my fav jockeys Ted Durcan, is on the favourite Calatrave Cape - as with all evening selections, we need to go back nearer the off as a lot can happen between now and 735pm 805 NEWMARKET - a very interesting race for place only backers with 8 runners., 3 places and 2 clear outsiders. Again, given the time of this race, a look nearer the off is wise. 830 NEWCASTLE - Secretive as a Mark Johnston horse who is also a price gapper , is of automatic interest here. 1.3 to place at present could be very tempting . A bit early and the price may rise as the lay price is 1.4 ( illiquid market) - again 830 is some 8 hours hence . FOOTBALL 3pm - North Korea v Ivory Coast - 1.43 Ivorians ( now down to 1.39) - Ivory Coast have been poor this tournament ( the magic touch of Eriksson) and need to smash North Korea and hope Brazil beat Pork and Cheese to ensure quailifcation. Atall order. I would be happy laying the North Koreans at odds of 11 for a 1.0953 bet ( £100 fixed liability produces a £9.53 return) 3pm Portugal v Brazil - great against North Korea, but then that was North Korea. The bet of interest for me? Lay Portugal halftime/fulltime at 8.2 for a return equivalent to a 1.13 back bet. 730pm - Switzerland v Honduras - under 4.5 goals at 1.13. Let's face it, negative Swiss are poor up front, and Hondurans even poorer Perhaps lay the Hondurans here as Swiss need a 2 goal win, and are tough to score against. Laying Honduras at 7.2 is 1.15 bet. TENNIS - the multiple looks good SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST 505 Doncaster - I would actually risk a 2 the place race today - it is, infact a 50/50 race as there should be 4 horses contending the 2 places. I would default to the market leader here to place - currently Engulf, around 1.15 to place in a very illiquid market at present - the market needs to firm up for any involvement. 805 NEWMARKET -extremely interesting as only 4 under 16/1. Flambeau is the one at present, but this would need revisiting nearer to 805. Now a 7 horse race for 3 places and 2 horses are 250/1 or bigger - VERY intersting indeed - 5 horses for 3 places and one of the 5 is 20/1 3pm - North Korea v Ivory Coast -it seems Sven is the opposite of King Midas - whatever he touches turns into BLEEP. That said, I would lay the North Koreans here though in the match odds market at 11 for an equivalent bet of around 1.095. The incentive is with Ivory Coast, and a hungry Drogba could really get some goals. 730pm- Switzerland v Honduras - under 4.5 goals at 1.1 is interesting for 2 poor attacking sides. I would also favour, perhaps, the lay of Honduras at 7.2 for a 1.15 bet as the Swiss have the clearer incentive -------------------- NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address. http://www.cliveoneaday.com ------------ Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk. ---------------- One A Day oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181 ------------------------- Canonbury Publishing Ltd Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS Registered office address: Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94 Your total potential win: £12.00 trusti