31/5

No football of interest today alas, wjhich leaves a thoroughly niggly Monday which will repay those who like speculating, particularly on the 2 the place chase races

The shortlist of the shortlist puts up Mhilu and the 355 Cartmel as an outstanding probability race. I cannot put the latter up as it is a beginners chase race and the majority of these horses have not run over chase fences

Mhilu, while only 2 the place , is compelling for the fact that his betting forecast price is now battered into 4/11 - only 2 miles on good ground so not a slog and short enough that we can hope he will have a clear round.

I am willing to take a chance here personally - but those with discipline whill see 2 places and a jumps race and stay away


***** ONE A DAY - 250 TOWCESTER - Mhilu to place only - I hope the 1.12 will remain and I hope I will not be punished for involvement in a 2 the place claiming hurdle. The comelling evidence comes from the betting forecast price battered into 4/11
I hope this ends the month on a winning note. *****




Job done with Bunce yesterday.
England was a great enhanced bet as Japan took the lead. I laid Japan at 3.75 on this occasion and hoped for at least a draw and Eng-er-land obliged

Brief message today as I am in transit and cannot write the message at the ideal time when the markets are fully formed

As I write it is 930am and the markets are not even showing all early prices. I hope if I get to my destination at time that I can update.

The day begins with a 2 yr old seller, then a 4 runner maiden, then a novices hurdle - typical Monday then!!

220 CARLISLE

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Defence Council, 2/1 Honeymead, 8/1 Ad Value, 10/1 Shy Bird, 12/1 Mr Khan, 16/1 Golden Blaze, 33/1 Indian Giver.

DIOMED VERDICT: Newcomer HONEYMEAD is just preferred to Defence Council.

The early markets make this a 2 horse race, with 2 under 14/1 in the betting.
BUT this is a 7 runner, 2 places, 5 furlong, 5 debutant ( from 7) maiden.
Defence Council has the form, albeit one run

235 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Tubby Isaacs, 9/2 Phantom Whisper, Rocker, 13/2 Alfresco, 7/1 Even Bolder, Kyllachy Storm, 12/1 Barons Spy, 16/1 Vintage, 20/1 Cornus.

DIOMED VERDICT: TUBBY ISAACS has gone from strength to strength and although this is his first try on a downhill track it's reasonable to hope he still has more to offer. Tubby Isaacs has won 4 of his last 6 races so is obviously in the groove. Hint of support into 15/8, 2/1 generally to continue th form. BUT 2 win sequence, and winning sequences will end eventually, but the question is whether he places if he does not win. 245 CARTMEL BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Beidh Tine Anseo, 100/30 Classic Contours, 4/1 Andhaar, 10/1 Master Fong, 14/1 Johnmanderville, Swiss Guard, 50/1 Takaatuf, 200/1 Markadam. DIOMED VERDICT: BEIDH TINE ANSEO escapes any penalty for his recent gains and should be able to maintain his winning run back in novice company. Andhaar looks a likely recruit to hurdling and can chase him home. Absolutely monumental "the whole family's on" gamble 2 runs ago came off for the favourite here and a price gapper with odds on status hints at confidence here again. CAmpbell Gillies has been on thehorse for his last 2 runs and last 2 winning runs! 250 TOWCESTER BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Mhilu, 4/1 Miss Nightshade, 5/1 A Dream Come True, 8/1 Nicky Nutjob, 14/1 Billy Beetroot. DIOMED VERDICT: The visor is a grey area but MHILU has a fair bit in hand on official ratings and knows how to win, which counts for a lot at this level. 8/11 betting forecast but 4/11 early market signals significant support and confidence in Mhilu - claiming hurdle and 2 places a niggle , but a certain AP McCoy onboard 305 CHEPSTOW BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Radio Wave, 11/4 Prince Of Dreams, 4/1 Donna Elvira, 5/1 Countess Comet, 10/1 High Ransom, Juwireya, 100/1 Ancient Greece, Jinksy Minx, Rumballina, 200/1 Superhoops. DIOMED VERDICT: RADIO WAVE is a promising filly with a top middle-distance pedigree and should get off the mark at the third time of asking. 315 LEICESTER BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Timocracy, 9/2 Major Pop, Pyrus Time, 13/2 Applaude, 8/1 Ravens Rose, 10/1 Red Smokey, 12/1 Guga, 20/1 Apurna, 40/1 Brasingaman Eric, 66/1 Annie Moyles, 100/1 Miss Isle Control, DIOMED VERDICT: TIMOCRACY is 2-2 since joining Andrew Haynes and again has the best chance at the weights. He looks the most solid option, assuming this race doesn't come too soon after his Brighton success on Friday. A class 6 seller screams out caution but Tim is a price gapper. 325 TOWCESTER BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Dreamy Sweeney, 3/1 Baren De Doc, 10/1 Gothic Charm, 16/1 Tuscany Star, 33/1 Harvey May, Wham Bang, 66/1 Thyne Spirit. DIOMED VERDICT: DREAMY SWEENEY hammered none other than last year's Cheltenham Festival winner Cappa Bleu in winning his Irish point and also showed considerable promise for this yard over hurdles. Beginners chase and 2 places - caution - McCoy fav and 4/7 here Progressive form for Radio Wave but only 2 runs in this maiden 355 CARTMEL BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Hearthstead Dream, Simarian, 9/2 Last Flight, 7/1 Indian Pipe Dream, Magical Legend, 14/1 Ballycolin, 25/1 Double Bank, 50/1 Young Yozza. DIOMED VERDICT: HEARTHSTEAD DREAM and Magical Legend are both coming to chasing a bit late in the day but their recent wellbeing, particularly that of the former, offers encouragement that they’ll go very close if taking to this discipline. Beginners chase the major niggle but this is turning out to be another excellent probability bet with 2 non runners and 2 horses at 16/1 and 50/1 who are priced no0t to be competitive. T5his therefore leaves, we can hope, just 4 horses vying for 3 places - default on the fav Hearthstead Dreams? Remember these are chasers with l plates on so we need to assume a clean round of jumping 435 TOWCESTER BETTING FORECAST: Evs Ruby Isabel, 11/10 Beauchamp Viking, 10/1 Saddlers Mount, 33/1 Simiola, Un Autre Espere. DIOMED VERDICT: Tim Vaughan should have a rough idea as to how he stands with Beauchamp Viking and RUBY ISABEL looks fairly handicapped anyway on her chasing debut, provided she fancies the challenge. The market makes this a match up between the front 2 but ifr remained disciplined of course, we ignore chases with 2 places ( albeit over 2 miles so less scope for a fall) 450 CHEPSTOW BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Scarcity, 5/1 Gundaroo, 13/2 Ramamara, 7/1 Mrs Mogg, 10/1 Oasis Jade, Sweet Pilgrim, 12/1 Chinese Democracy, 14/1 Miskin Nights, 20/1 Boragh Jamal, Kenyan Cat, 33/1 Joan´s Legacy. DIOMED VERDICT: SCARCITY needs the ground to remain on top but she won with plenty in hand when backed on her handicap debut at Yarmouth and surely has further races in her. Price gapper in this handicap and a winner last time out , Scarcity is expected to run very well again under a penalty 500 LEICESTER BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Christmas Carnival, 7/2 Lathaat, Veni Vedi Veci, 9/2 Dazzled, 8/1 Before The War, 14/1 Mazamorra, 28/1 Shut Up Shapiro, Weliketobouggie, 40/1 Eastern Magic. DIOMED VERDICT: CHRISTMAS CARNIVAL just about sets the standard on his close fourth to a subsequent winner at Newbury on his reappearance. Support for newcomer Dazzled would be significant. Christmas Carnival is a a progressive maiden and despite my concerns as a place backer than he has only managed one place in 3 outings, his most recent 4th saw him beaten only 1 3/4 lengths 3 are 33/1 or bigger and should reduce the competitive field to 6 , 3 of whom will place 600 BALLINROBE BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Snap Alam, 13/8 Super Say, 6/1 Majestic Pearl, 10/1 Maid Of The Castle, 12/1 The Silver Crown, 14/1 Rose Bed, 20/1 Farmleigh House, 33/1 One Grand One, Peccatorum, 50/1 Chevalier D´Or, Ebony Cat. Although we must be a little cautious in maidens at the lesser light irish tracks, the sight of Pat Smullen on a market leader does instil confidence (Snap Alam) SHORTLIST 245 CARTMEL - Beide Tine Anseo looks to be fancied again and if he attracts support, as he has successfully last twice, then we should remain optimistic of a good run? 250 TOWCESTER - Mhilu - the huge discrepancy between betting forecast and live market price is very telling here, but do we remain disciplined in these 2 the place claiming hurdles and leave them alone? -only 2 miles 355 CARTMEL - a superb probability bet for those who like speculating - 3 places and 6 runners but a 2 mile 5 furlong beginners chase - I would default on the favourite for no other reason than that is an easy way to make a decision without umming and ahhing. The sight of Brian Hughes in the saddle is a good one 500 LEICESTER - niggle re maiden status of this race and a couple of debutatns who could be anything but Christmas Carnival could be progressive - as with the bets today, they are either 2 the place hurdles and chase races, or maidens with debutants as rivals so a very niggly day SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST A very niggly day indeed with maidens abounding ( and some of these maidens contain debutants) , beginners chases, and 2 places, and we have our unwritten rule regarding beginners chases which will preclude some bets 250 TOWCESTER - Mhilu runs in a claiming hurdle with only 2 places but I always see extreme confidence when the ebtting forecaster's 8/11 is spanked into 4/11 now This perhaps negates the claiming and 2 the place niggles I have 1.12 to place , we must assume a clear round of jumping of course 355 CARTMEL -must be mentioned for these reasons 8 runners now down to 6 runners Betfair are still paying out on 3 places making this a 50/50 race one horse is 66/1 and can be ignored leaving 5 for 3 places one horse is 14/1 and although he cannot be strictly omitted from calculations, if he runs to his price this will be a 4 horse race for 3 places Niggles? Beginners chase - L plates on, and assumption of a clear round if getting involved. I would default to the market leader as the simplest way to decide who you will hope will finish , and finish in the first 3 in a 6 runner race