BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Mister Wall Street, 13/8 Empty Sky, 11/2 Wave Power, 14/1 Keep Gunin, 16/1 Twentynineblack, 25/1 Flaming Breeze, 33/1 Avanos, Lewlaur Supreme, Lord Equalizer, Raisthorpe, 50/1 Paddington Bob.
| DIOMED VERDICT: EMPTY SKY is preferred to Mister Wall Street on this ground. |
An interesting market here with only 3 horses under 16/1 and only 4 horses under 25/1. I am getting to like McCain/Maguire as a partnership on strong market leaders as they have yet to disappoint. Their candidate is Empty Sky, but he cannot be separated from Mister Wall Street in the betting.
Any place only betting presumes these 2 dominate the finish. 1.22 and 1.27 the front 2 to place - these are the only 2 horses under evens in the place market - take the hint? Again remember my idea about following Cheltenham entries - well Mister Wall Street fits the bill here.
300 PLUMPTON
| DIOMED VERDICT: Minella Boys is considered but GILES CROSS and Mobaasher look the prime candidates, with Giles Cross fancied to repeat his Chepstow win despite the revised weights. |
Celian a non runner. 3 only under 25/1 should fight for the places. Another lucky dip race- Giles Cross and Mobaasher are the 2 fancies in the place market at around 1.4 but realistically I cannot discount any of the 3 most likely to fight the finish hence my description of it as a Lucky Dip.
350 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Oenologue, 5/1 Patavium, 8/1 Lawgiver, 10/1 Wheyaye, 12/1 King In Waiting, Rare Coincidence, 16/1 Star Tenor, 50/1 Apache Brave.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This revolves around OENOLOGUE, who won doing handsprings at Fontwell last week. |
Nice 8 runner race, ideal for 3 the place betting and a very strong market leader in oenologue who won convincingly last time out. Richard Johnson in the plate and priced to be competitive. 1.17 to place with the next best at 1.75 tells you where market confidence lies. " tough to beat under a penalty if as good again" declares Spotlight, but the " bounce factor " might be in play after a recent run.
A note of caution from the analysis of his impressive win after a lay off
"He has had bleeding problems, and goes best fresh, so though he seem to make plenty of appeal if turned out under a penalty, it´s unlikely he will be capable of repeating this effort."
430 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Tanks For That, 2/1 Shoreacres, 4/1 Bormo, Mam Ratagan, 33/1 Inthejungle, Tuscany Star, 40/1 Chance Card, 100/1 Bollywood, One Step Closer, Red Bishop.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Bormo and Mam Ratagan have shown up well enough in handicaps to suggest they will be in serious contention but Shoreacres and TANKS FOR THAT may prove a bit too classy for them. |
Mam Ratagan I think is a late non runner which leaves just the 3 originally under 33/1 in the betting forecast.
A beginners chase sounds a slight note of caution, and stables such as Thornton/King and McCoy/Henderson are represented.
Again it is lucky dip chosing one of the 3 under 20/1 in the live betting to place only, as inevitably one of these 3 market leaders will falter and not place. Remember they do have L Plates on still.
450 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Vannin, 6/1 Bitter Blue, Rupert Lamb, 10/1 Jersey Boys, 16/1 Smithy The Horse, 33/1 Arkas, Leolene Starlight, Nipper Nial, 50/1 Dark Primrose, 100/1 Kylaardon.
| DIOMED VERDICT: VANNIN stands out a mile with his conqueror here last time running so well at Newbury. "Stands out here a mile" -a resounding vote of confidence? The 1/2 is not reflected in the live betting market ( 4/6 presently) and Bitter Blue 4/1 with Smithy the Horse a significant mover into 7/1. Remember this is a bumper so the market is key. But certainly that is an eyecatching price gap for Vannin. FOOTBALL 4pm APEP v APOEL - 1.29 away side. Always worthy of invetigation when the away side is 2/7 to win. Home team APEP have a home record of 2-4-3 (W-D-L) for their 9 home games this season Away team APOEL have an away record of 5-2-1 (W-D-L) for their 8 away games this season Head to heads have been one sided and convincing in favour of APOEL. This is Cypriot Division 1 football and I have to use www.betdevil.com as www.soccerstats.com oes not cover Cypriot Football. APOEL are undefeated in their last 17 games. APEP are on a 4 game losing streak, APOEL remember were the side that performed so well against Chelsea in the Champions League. Recent 2009 head to heads 3-1 and 4-0 wins SHORTLIST |
No comments:
Post a Comment