28/2

ONE A DAY - strong candidates in the Shortlist of the shortlist. I will personally go with
1pm PSV to beat Waalwijk 1.15 match odds. Option to trade after they hopefully score first.
If you want to stick with place only betting, then read the base of this message for the 2 strongest bets that I have found today.



Additional choices worked well yesterday, Barca/Real double paid , 350 and 420 Ling went to the favs, and Nicanor won. The lay multiple was break even, as I backed Man City when they went a goal down ( as advised in the message) and returned my multiple stake - excellent move as City went on to win!! Chelsea scoring first saved my bacon.



FOOTBALL

1130am - Ajax v Utrecht - 1.29 - again the big boys are playing at home today and I seem to do this every Sunday. Won all at home bar one 0-0 draw.
Won 6 and drawn 2 of their last 8.
Scored 11 in their last 3 home games in February - 4-0, 3-0, 4-0 . Compelling argument.

Actually lost to Utrecht 2-0 at Utrecht.
Utrecht at home have drawn 4 0-0, won 2-0 ( Ajax) and 1-0. Superb performance against the top 6 at home. Away though, have lost 3-1 and 3-2 against the top 2 sides.0-0 Feyenoord and 3-1 loss to 6th place.
Very contrasting form. If they brought their home tactics to away matches, this will be tricky for Ajax.
BUT the fact Ajax have scored a minimum of 3 goals in their last 3 home games.
Perhaps safety in 1.5 goals bet?

1pm- Shaktar v Vorskla - 1.21 - Shaktar play an Arsenal style of football and have some superb forwards. Overcome by Fulham mid week though.
Perfect home record for Shaktar this season but head to heads last year 1-1 and 1-0 loss ( Cup game)
Last 5 games between these 2 have been 1-0 or 1-1 .
Not a conclusive enough argument to back Shaktar despite their strong home form.

1pm - PSV v Waalwijk - 1.15 - another of the triumvirate who seem backable instinctively when they play at home - were 1/10 with Ladbrokes last night so we're getting better odds here
1-1 draw v Sparta at home one of 5 draws throughout the season. PSV scored first, which is an important distinction if you want to trade out ( and I would)

As you should know by now, sub 1.2 equals goals. Look at Litex - 3-0 when similarly priced - Look at Barca last night 2-1 I believe ( should have been 4-5 goal victory)
2 bare minimum when priced like this.
+36 goal difference versus -26 for bottom side.
Have only won one game away from home, and beaten 2-1 , 4-1 and 3-0 against three of the top 4 they have played away from home.

3 2-1 losses and 3 1-0 losses for Waalwijk in their last 6 matches show some element of fight.
Have lost their last 4 away games 3-1, 3-0, 2-1, 2-1.

245pm - Olympiakos v Atromitos 1.29 - mentioned because a win puts Oly top for a while.
win. loss, win, loss in their last 4 home games were 2 of only 3 losses all season.
All losses have come against top 5 sides.
1-0 head to head.
Atromitos have lost 4 and drawn 1 of their 5 away games against top 6 sides.

430pm- BAyern v Hamburg 1.51 to win - priced to be a tricky encounter, but I can see goals - Bayern win, they go top with a game in hand.
10 game winning league sequence inevitably ended last week away. Need 3 points to go top by 2 points.
Last 5 home games have scored a minimum of 2 goals.

Hamburg away from home have lost only one. They have a certain Van Nistelrooy playing for them which is some coup.
Over 1.5 goals?

HORSE RACING
150 CLONMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Fennis Boy, 11/4 Grancore Girl, 6/1 Teffia Rose, 8/1 The Burrow Vic, Waltzing Tornado, 10/1 Gortnagros, Mulgrave Street, 16/1 Ambient Sound, 33/1 Ching Ching, 50/1 Cluasless, Hillman, Take The Floor, Will She Be Sober, 66/1 Idle Banter, Tell Fraulein.

Only 4 under 14/1 and front 2 are 10/11 and 5/2 and priced to dominate- Fennis Boy 1.31 to place - close 2nd to Some target is good form

Heavy ground though

220 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Progress, 3/1 Madlool, 8/1 Piccolo Blue, Torres Del Paine, 10/1 Caramelita, 20/1 Rock With You, 50/1 Higenius, 100/1 Cockney Colonel.

DIOMED VERDICT: MADLOOL is bred to be very useful and can make a winning debut at the expense of Progress.

The straight 8 makes this great for 3 place betting. As has been the case recently ion the all weather, we have seen turf raced horses coming back from a long lay off and extremely confidently supported in the betting. Progress fits in this time.
2 horses are 66/1 or bigger, one is 33/1 leaving 5 fighting for 3 places. 1.15 to place.

PRogress - sole run October 2009, 5th of 10 over 6 furlongs. 5/6 and " all red" in the betting, indicating this horse has been shortening all morning.
Faith in the performance of these profiled horses?

245 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Marlay Park, 9/4 Cadspeed, 6/1 Jaffonnien, 12/1 O Fortuna, 16/1 Tian Shan, 25/1 Bruach Na Mara, Jossestown Lad, 66/1 Chrystal Vision, 100/1 Unouself.

Live market has 3 only under 25/1 with Cadspeed 2nd last 4 occasions in maiden hurdles. Walsh/Mullins horse and now fav - could be a good place only bet. 1.1 to place . 1.13 Marlay Park to place

320 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Hurakan, 11/4 Sedgwick, 7/2 Sahrati, 7/1 State General, 16/1 Escardo, 25/1 Hatch A Plan, 33/1 Solarias Quest, 100/1 Macademy Royal.

DIOMED VERDICT: HURAKAN has done well since joining current connections and looks the safest option in this field.

2nd fav a non runner opens things up for Hurakan? Still 3 places so interesting but the market is very illiquid. An all weather claimer hardly as trustworthy as a class 1!

350 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Citizen Vic, 9/4 Major Finnegan, 8/1 See U Bob, 12/1 Schelm, 16/1 Coscorrig, 25/1 Copsiano.

Walsh/Mullins again in a 6 horse race where 3 are under 25/1 in the betting.

Quite a move for See u Bob into 4/1 Citizen Vic clear fav in the place only market, and again there are pennies only in the market so do not back until around 345pm. Should ideally concern Citizen and Majo, but See U Bob is a fly in the ointment and cannot be confidently discounted
3 horses and 2 places - which of the 3 do you thin will not place?



420 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Tranquil Sea, 4/1 Snowy Morning, 9/2 Made In Taipan, 7/1 Mansony, 12/1 Ballyholland, 14/1 Aran Concerto, 20/1 Carthalawn, Natal.

PRice gapper here, stronger in the live betting market 4/6 - - - - 6/1
Straight 8 and 3 places - high class race.
Price gapper in a grade 2 - 2112 form 1.15 to place - as we saw yesterday with the 2 price gappers at Lingfield in high class races, they ran as per their prices and both won with ease ( hence placing of course)


505 FONTWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Caught By Witness, 4/1 Cresswell Crusader, 9/2 J´Adhere, 5/1 Kapborg, 7/1 Five Star Wilsham, 14/1 Grafite, Jean De La Lune, Wyck Hill, 20/1 Kadenis, 25/1 Edlomond, 28/1 Oh So Classy, 33/1 Adamo.

DIOMED VERDICT: CAUGHT BY WITNESS was an encouraging second on debut here last month and can go one better.

Only 6 horses remain here and surely Caught by Witness, the original favourite when there were 12 runners, has a great chance of finishing in the first 3 in a 6 runner race?
Concern that the number of absentees is indicative of poor ground?
Around 1.3 to place and 3 places. Simple 50/50 race this one.

Despite saying soft ground earlier on the website, ground is now heavy so bear that in mind

SHORTLIST

1pm - PSV v Waalwijk - 1.15 - good opportunity for PSV here against bottom side.May be tight so I would consider trading after the first PSV goal ( assuming they score first) Big shoc if they lose to bottom side.

220 KEMPTON - faith in Progress to keep up the strong record for these profiles - ran on turf in October. Comes to all weather maiden and inserted as very strong odds on favourite
1.15 to place

245 LEOPARDSTOWN - only 3 horses under 25/1 here and Cadspeed for Walsh/Mullins has consistently placed.

420 LEOPARDSTOWN - must be a price gapper in a grade 2 for a reason! Tranquil sea 4/6 - - - -6/1
ballyholland some money has come for this one.
Faith that an odds on shot in a grade 2 8 runner race can finish in the first 3.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
1pm - PSV priced to score 2 or more here and beat bottom side at home where they have not lost all season.

245 LEOPARDSTOWN - Cadspeed is one of 3 under 25/1 and has a great opportunity to place with a clear round for Walsh/Mullins

420 LEOPARDSTOWN - Tranquil sea must be odds on in a grade 2 for a reason. Not out of the first 2 in his last 4, looks primed to place here.

27/2

Litex won well and I predicted the 3-0 scoreline. Jagoes Mills placed with ease. I backed Resplendent ace yesterday with a lay bet in place at 2.9 and it was eventually matched.

Today should see an opportunity for multiple selections, being a Saturday. I hope w can replicate last weekend but that was down o the fact there were just so many strong bets in the one day.

FOOTBALL
12pm - Slavia Sofia v Sportist Svoge - 1.26 home side - I cannot find any research info on these 2 and am not going to bet blind.

1245pm - Chelsea v Man City - 1.46 home side - Chelsea 1 point ahead and a game in hand so a must win.Have won all at home bar a 3-3 draw with Everton.Have won their last 5 at home since that Everton draw and a 2-0 scalp of the Arse is the standout score.
No Adebayour for City.City have the edge -2-1 in head to heads ( under Sparky!!)
City away have lost one, drawn 1 and lost 3 games. Poor form .The win was against Wolves and losses against Hull do not augur well today. Something is up with City away.

A possible lay of City here to cover the draw but it is only equivalent to a 1.11 back bet.

1pm - Dinamo Kiev v Kryvbas - 1.14 home side
Home team Dynamo Kyiv have a home record of 7-1-0 (W-D-L) for their 8 home games this season
Away team Kryvbas have an away record of 0-1-6 (W-D-L) for their 7 away games this season
Only match odds market - I would have played goals markets here.

2pm- Dinamo Zagreb v Sesvete 1.1 home side
Home team Dinamo Zag have a home record of 7-1-0 (W-D-L) for their 8 home games this season
Away team Cr Sesvete Z have an away record of 1-1-6 (W-D-L) for their 8 away games this season
Contrasting fortunes good to see.
1.1 at home would lead e to look halftime/fulltime or goals, BUT only an illiquid match odds market is available.
245pm - Lokomotiv Sofia v Plovdiv 1.30 home side

3pm- Bolton v Wolves - goalfest? Hmmmm, don't think so. Bolton have scored one goal in their last 6 games.Have lost 3 and drawn 2 of their last 5.
Wolves won 2-1 in head to heads.Wolves have only won 2 away 1-0.
3 losses and a draw in their last 4 away, but they did face United and Liverpool.


3pm - Livingston v Montrose 1.23 - home side
Home team Livingston have a home record of 9-1-1 (W-D-L) for their 11 home games this season
Away team Montrose have an away record of 1-2-6 (W-D-L) for their 9 away games this season
2-0 and 3-0 wins for Livingston in 2009 - more expected today with home advantage

6pm- Monaco v Boulogne - 1.46 home side
Have only lost 3 at home this season. BEaten Boulogne already 3-1 at their place.
Won 4, drawn 1 and lost one of last 5 home games.
On a 3 game losing run and priced to end that today against 2nd from bottom..
Boulogne have only won 3 games all season - 2 at home and one 1-0 away.
Have not won a game since 6th December.
Have scored 2 goals only in their last 7 games
Interestingly have drawn against 6th and 8th in the league ( MONACO ARE 7th)
Percentage call is home win. Safe call is lay Boulogne. NOT in running alas.



7pm- tenerife v Real Madrid 1.29 away side
The ding-dong battle at the top continues - only 2 points in it and equal games played, so when priced at 1.29 away ,they MUST win. Only losses this season have come away to Barca/Sevilla/Bilbao- 2 1-0's and a 2-1 loss.
Bat Tenerife at home 3-0.
Have scored 6 in their last 2 away games after the 1-0 loss to Bilbao.Have scored 3 or more in their last 4 games including 6 last time out. They turn up like that tonight and poor Tenerife will be spanked.
Tenerife are 18th of 20 in the league.Have 2 wins only in their last 15 games, 5 draws and 8 losses. Heavily weighted in favour of NOT WINNING.
Unable to beat any of the top 5 they have played in Tenerife. 5-0 spanking by Barca is a guide as to what we should expect when Real come to town. BUT 0-0 v Valencia was a standout amongst the losses. Would want to see Ronny in the Real side. He was majestic last weekend.


715pm - Braga v Olhanense 1.35 home side
2nd against 13th One point behind leaders and same games played. MUST win games at home that they are priced to win.Won all bar a 0-0 v Naval.
Lost 5-1 away to Porto last time.
Prior to that won their last 6 games.
Away side not won away. Against all sides below 7th they have drawn all away matches. Against those they have played above 7th they have lost all away matches. Hav not played the top 4 away so I cannot gauge how they have got on.


9pm- Barcelona v Malaga 1.17 home side
The score first percentage has dropped to 91% from a 95% high. Remember Litex yesterday 1.17 and scored 3 to no reply. This is the expectation when priced sub 1.2 in football.
Have won all bar 1 draw at home this season.
Against those 16th and below, home scorelines of 4-0 and 6-1 and away scorelines of 4-1, 5-0, 3-0, 2-0 signal goals.
Barca have scored 4 twice in their last 3 home games, and a minimum of 2.
Beat Malaga 2-0 in Malaga.
Malaga have only lost one game in their last 14 matches, and yes, that was a 2-0 loss to Real Madrid.
4 draws and 2 wins and that sole loss to Madrid is good away form, especially victories over Athletico Madrid, and a 2-20 draw with Sevilla.7 of the 8 draws have been score draws which would lead e, with the 91% Barca score first stat, to consider trading- surely they cannot keep Barca out? It too 36 minutes for Real to score against them, so expect early resistance tonight but an eventual Barca breakthrough.



915pm- Leixos v Benfica - 1.41 away side
Have only lost one away this season, winning 6 and drawing 3.
Beat Leixos 5-0 back in September 09 in the heady days when they were scoring bucket loads.
Leixos have drawn 0-0 and 1-1 against Braga and Porto at home . Indeed they have drawn 2 and won 2 against 4 of the top 6 sides they have played at home, yet then collapse 2-1 and 4-2 against 7th and 8th sides!!

Could be a tricky one for Benfica tonight .I would need to lay Leixos to cover the draw but 12.5 is a little high.
Maybe one for a LAY MULTIPLE?

HORSE RACING

100 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 1/5 Punjabi, 6/1 Treaty Flyer, 10/1 Border Castle, 20/1 Mon Michel, 66/1 Supernoverre, 200/1 Spider Boy.

DIOMED VERDICT: PUNJABI's trainer has warned that the 2009 Champion Hurdle winner will need the race, as he did at this stage last season, but it is highly doubtful whether any of today's rivals will be capable of taking advantage.

Interesting start to the day - "may need the race" = cover your arse if the horse gets beaten. Looks a 4 horse race for the 2 places, and after Zaynar and Denman's Cheltenham preps going south, I would be reluctant to get involved here
1.18 for the win and 1.09 for the place. having learned from Zaynar I would have to go with the safety of the place market here. After all Zaynar finished 2nd but I lost cos I went with the win.

200 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Salden Licht, 5/1 Grey Soldier, 6/1 Vino Griego, 7/1 Ghimaar, 8/1 Frascati Park, 10/1 Cheshire Prince, 12/1 Dr Livingstone, Escort´men, 25/1 Ashammar, Cool Touch.

DIOMED VERDICT: GREY SOLDIER tested leading festival hope Rite Of Passage at Leopardstown on his penultimate start and, on the current evidence, has most to fear here from Salden Licht and Vino Griego.

Grey soldier has been well backed and is Cheltenham bound.

1st and 2nd in very big fields so hopefully 10 runners should be a doddle to place at least? High class race though so nothing can be taken for granted. 1.53 to place. The betting forecaster had Saltenlicht as a price gapper but Grey soldier has been the one supported. The place only price tells you this is competitive, with 2 big stables fielding horses who are relative unknowns but could be anything.

210 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Atlantic Tiger, 7/4 Christmas Coming, 12/1 Mister Pleau, 16/1 Pascalina, 33/1 Tallulah Mai.

DIOMED VERDICT: Christmas Coming will be dangerous if Kieren Fallon can get him settled early but ATLANTIC TIGER is the safest option in what looks a match.

I'm a little concerned now that my rose tinted view of Messrs Fanning and Johnston has been shattered by the antics and prior info I had that Kings salute would not place.( he duly finished last at 4/5)
This is but one aberation is what has otherwise been a superb season for the combo so far,
This race looks a match up - only 2 under 20/1 and 2 places. Fallon on Christmas coming is eyecatching.Betting is 8/11 and 11/8 - traditional 2 horse race market.
1.13 Atlantic Tiger and 1.18 Christmas Coming.

230 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 The Nightingale, 9/2 Mount Oscar, 6/1 Viking Rebel, 8/1 Red Admiral, 25/1 Othermix.

DIOMED VERDICT: Paul Nicholls is going for his fifth win in a row in this race and has excellent prospects with THE NIGHTINGALE.

trainers who target specific races are worth following. The Nightingale is a little wobbly at the head of the market though. Not quite the 1/2 forecast. 1.34 to place.

310 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Cayo Levantado, 8/1 City Of Doral, Night Alliance, Razorlite, 10/1 Carrigdhoun, Instinctive, Rockers Field, 12/1 South Liberties, 14/1 Posh Bird, 16/1 Danny´s Vic, Florimund, Retrievethelegend, 20/1 Amstecos, Brownpolish, Grand Charisma, Moonlight Sapphire, 25/1 Bremen, 33/1 Cantrell, Druids Castle, Hotterthanjuly, Lisrenny Lady, Reaching Out, Royal Paradise, 50/1 Derravarra Eagle, Telegonus.

All of Ireland was on the gamble on Cayo Levantado last time out. A real traditional plot. Now 5/2 in this race with next best 7/1 , priced to be competitive again. 4 places here but have we missed the boat. The money was down last time. 1.87 to place and 4 places might be worth a gamble.

350 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Jaconet, 3/1 Arganil, 6/1 Green Manalishi, 8/1 Ebraam, 10/1 Mullionmileanhour, 12/1 Smarten Die, 33/1 Bel Cantor, 66/1 Brunelleschi.

DIOMED VERDICT: These conditions seem to bring out the best in JACONET and she can make it 3-3 over this C&D.

Listed race on the all weather and a strong price gapper, now odds on, in Jaconet. 8 horses and 3 places, and 2 clear outsiders make this an interesting place only race.

98 day absence to overcome -course and distance winner. Listed race = ALL very good horses.
1.18 to place and clear favourite in the place only market. One of only 2 under evens.

420 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Gitano Hernando, 3/1 Suits Me, 6/1 Yahrab, 12/1 Baylini, Mister Green, 25/1 Confidentiality, 33/1 Mesa Marauder, 50/1 Victoria Sponge.

DIOMED VERDICT: GITANO HERNANDO may not have things all his own way here but he is developing into a top-notch performer and can concede the weight all round.

Top notch card at Lingers. Gitano Hernando has Fallon on board, and is one of only 3 horses under 12/1 in the live betting market in another classic each way race - 8 runners and 3 places.

3 horses are 40/1 or bigger reducing the competitive field to 5, 3 of which will place.
140 day absence to overcome and a group 1 penalty but strong at the head of the market. 1.14 to place despite the absence is quite a price and very eyecatchingly short.

450 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Nicanor, 4/1 Deal Done, 6/1 More Chimney´S, 8/1 Carsonstown Boy, 14/1 Ar Aghaidh Leat, Got Attitude, 16/1 Kyle´s Turn, 20/1 Corporation, Parnell Street.

Not many can say they have beaten Denman! Nicanor can. 2322 in his last 4 chases, beaten by An Cathaoir Mor and Kempes in his last 2 ( An Cathaoir beaten by Kempes yesterday)

Heavy ground not a bother given he's Irish. Good place only chances ( they'll be expecting the win) Beginners chase but as I have said, has 2322 form in chases) 1.17 to place. Could be Nicanor's day today.

SHORTLIST
FOOTBALL
1245pm - LAY MAN CITY. Covers the draw.
6pm - MONACO V BOULOGNE - home win might be worth chancing at 1.46 but I would again favour the LAY BOULOGNE bet albeit at high odds.
7pm- TENERIFE V REAL MADRID - BACK REAL MADRID IN MATCH ODDS MARKET AND LAY OFF IF THEY SCORE FIRST. Possible concern Tenerife's 0-0 at home to Valencia.
9pm BARCELONA V MALAGA - 1.17 - BACK BARCELONA. BACK OVER 1.5 GOALS. BACK BARCELONA HALF TIME/FULL TIME.

HORSE RACING
1pm KEMPTON - PUNJABI TO PLACE ONLY 1.09 . " may need the race" of some slight concern.ZAYNAR AND DENMAN's under par performances need factoring.
6 HORSES AND 2 PLACES - 2 ARE 50/1 OR BIGGER. ONLY 3ARE UNDER 25/1

210 LINGFIELD - only 2 horses under 20/1 and 2 places Atlantic Tiger 32 form in maiden company on the all weather. Fanning/Johnston v Fallon ridden Christmas Coming - should be striaghtforward match up. Slight rise in trip for Atlantic Tiger ( from 10 furlongs to 12 today)

350 LINGFIELD - Jaconet warm order in the place only market despite absence. 1.18 to place is clear of the rest. Ideal place only race 8 horses and 3 places
Concern - top class race = top class horses all.

420 LINGFIELD - carbon copy of above but insert the name Gitano hernando. 140 day absence. 1.14 to place Group 1 penalty Form of 211211 compelling.

450 NAVAN - Heavy ground a concern but Nicanor is 2322 over chase fences and has run a couple of times in heavy. Could be his day for the win, hence good place only material?

POSSIBLE BET TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF WEEKEND OPPORUNITIES
USING BETFAIR MULTIPLES

4 Selections Chosen 1 Chelsea v Man City (Laying Man City @ 9.91) 2 Monaco v Boulogne (Laying Boulogne @ 10.41) 3 Tenerife v Real Madrid (Laying Tenerife @ 14.27) 4 Barcelona v Malaga (Laying Malaga @ 34.57)

4-Folds Selections Odds* Stake Potential win 1,2,3 and 4 1.36 £100.00 £36.00 *Odds shown are indicative and may vary. More info

Total stake: £100.00 Your total potential win: £36.00 Submit your bet(s) now

1.36 return.
I would also hedge in running. Eg if any of the teams I have opposed go a goal or 2 down. I can back their odds in running to ensure a return of my £100 stake. Eg if Tenerife go 1-0 down and their back odds increase to 50 ( for ease of calculation) I can back them for £2 to ensure that if they somehow managed to win, I would win £100.

This multiple also covers the draws in all matches.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

210 LINGFIELD - looks between Atlantic Tiger and Christmas Coming. I would favour Atlantic Tiger to place, one of only 2 under 20/1 and has 2 runs in Feb at Lingfield in class 5 maidens. Up 2 furlongs today though, but still odds on despite that.
5 horse race - 3 horses are 20/1 or bigger.
Christmas Coming is also tackling this trip for the first time too.

1.15 currently to place

350 LINGFIELD - last 2 wins at Lingfield , last win class 1. Slight absence to overcome .Odds on and 1.19 to place ,JACONET should finish in the first 3.

420 LINGFIELD - another top class listed race - 3 horses under 12/1, 4 horses under 16/1 and Gitano Hernando is odds on . Winner of Group 1 on last run ( 10th Oct 2009), so absence a slight niggle but has won after an absence from 8th May to 17th September last year.

1.15 to place. Strong candidate under FAllon who has partnered the horse before.

FOOTBALL

7pm Real Madrid have scored 2 or more regularly away from home and if as superb as last weekend, should justify the 1.29 odds.
915pm - Barcelona at 1.17 odds should indicate a comfortable home win. We must take note of Malaga only losing one of their last 14 games ( 2-0 Real MAdrid) but sequences do end and another loss should be chalked up this evening, although we might see stubborn resistance.

BETFAIR MULTIPLE LOOKS STRONG TO ME TOO.Man City I think the only fly in the ointment but their home form is poor, and if Chelsea take the lead, we can hedge by backing Man City at bigger odds to cover the multiple stake.

26/2

A poor choice yesterday when I had highlighted the lay of Unirea or over 4.5 goals. Lost out by that Gerrard 2nd half goal when I thought the bet was looking good after the first 15 minutes.

As to Kings Salute, well a reader did warn me the horse would not place, but I didn't believe it, and so he trailed in last. Shenanigans? I hope not!

With the weekend coming, I hope we can multiply selections, like last Saturday which was extremely successful, as was the Sunday. It is, of course, all dependent on what the betting gods throw up.

FOOTBALL

Start with the football today.

2pm - Litex Lovech v lokomotiv mezdra - 1.18 the home win - Bulgarian Premier league and the right price for goals as has been the case previously. 5 wins and a solitary loss at home for the home side and 5 losses and 2 wins for the away side.

Litex have scored 9 in 2 2009 encounters with this side. Augurs well.

2 1-0 losses in their last 2 away games may signal a " park the bus"? for the away side .

All things being equal, expectation is for a scoreline similar to the 2009 head to heads - around 3-0 , and the odds being sub 1.20 bear out this "goals" theory.

As suspected, alas, there is not much money up here. Litex are available at 1.2 with bookies like Ladbrokes and there won't be any liquidity issues there.

Negatives? I know nothing of the Bulgarian league, and cannot use soccerstats as they do not cover Bulgaria. So I am taking my cues from www.betdevil.com

The game does seem to be in running so perhaps the liquidity problem can be sorted out by waiting for in running money?

Consideration for the goal markets too - over 1.5 goals ( safer) and over 2.5 goals ( better odds) - but expect Litex to be the only suppliers of goals.

6pm - Debrecen v Diosygor - 1.25 home side. - Hungarian league and t.he head to heads with these 2 wouldn't make Debrecen hot favs if the betting market was made up solely of those stats. Diosygor have had the edge.

But they are in poor form currently - 5 losses on the trot. BUT this is a return to action after a Winter break .

Debrecen have plied their trade in the Champions league this season.

HORSE RACING
200 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Doubnov, 5/2 Boundless Prospect, 100/30 Resplendent Ace, 10/1 Zuwaar.

DIOMED VERDICT: DOUBNOV hasn't done much wrong in winning his last two starts and he is taken to complete a claiming-race hat-trick. It is a pity the non runner is Zuwaar. 3 horses and 2 places here. Faith in the fav to place? How much weaker is Resplendent Ace? 210 WARWICK BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Court In Motion, 5/2 Peveril, 13/2 Little George, 8/1 Johnny Mullen, Sandynow, 14/1 No Principles, 16/1 Easton Clump, 20/1 Playing With Fire, 25/1 Rossbrin, 40/1 Jo Joe´s Lot, Not Another Barney, Stevie Bull, 50/1 Quapriland, 66/1 Dromore Hill, 100/1 Gladeemma. DIOMED VERDICT: COURT IN MOTION is effectively a winner without a penalty, having been well in command when coming down shortly after the last on his first start over hurdles at Exeter, and can gain compensation granted a clear round. The epitomy of optimism. A last fence fall makes the fav " effectively a winner without a penalty". Those with glasses half empty may question the jumping. Jack Doyle retains the ride. A 15 runner field but 7 runners are 66/1 or bigger, reducing the competitive field to 8, 3 of whom will place. Of those 8 remaining, there are only 3 horses under 14/1 , Court in Motion at 4/5 , Peveril at 11/4 and Little George at 8/1 The market expects Court in Motion to show the promise before the fall and go on and take this one. A big eye catcher when close up to Oscar Whisky, and he showed the promise while cruising and then stumbling at the last when he had the race sown up. Ground today is soft ( heavy in places) 240 WARWICK BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Fin Vin De Leu, 3/1 Double Handful, 6/1 No Sting, 7/1 Ebiayn, 14/1 Allformary, Highway Code, 20/1 Doric Echo, 33/1 Seaquel, 50/1 Turnham Green. DIOMED VERDICT: Fin Vin De Leu is the form choice but might need a stiffer test of stamina, so the vote goes to DOUBLE HANDFUL in the hope that he is ready to go on his first start for Venetia Williams. Fav is now odds on and fancied. 2 miles novice hurdle. One non runner in Allformary won't overtly improve the chances of the principals. Fin Vin de Leu has 2 creditable 2nds in his last 2 2 mile novice hurdle events . With soft ( heavy in places) ground, he will have to settle better than he has done . In this now 8 runner field, 2 are 66/1 or bigger reducing the competitive field to 6, 3 of whome will place. 320 THURLES BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 An Cathaoir Mor, 3/1 Jagoes Mills, 9/2 Kempes, 7/1 Tally Em Up, 12/1 Barna Bay, 14/1 Taravada, 20/1 Baily View, 25/1 Toomdeely. Grade 2 race with the favourite carrying a grade 1 penalty. Of interest as this is the straight 8 runners. 3 horses at 33/1 or bigger should make this a 5 runner race for the 3 places, and perhaps Jagoes Mills, sandwiched between An Cathaoir Mor and Kempes, could be the place only choice? The front 3 should dominate. 340 SOUTHWELL BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Moonbalej, 7/2 Magic Millie, Step To It, 5/1 Princess Mandy, 12/1 As Brave As You, 14/1 Bitter Honey, 16/1 Labretella, 20/1 Dazakhee, Rescent, 33/1 Moonlight Blaze. DIOMED VERDICT: PRINCESS MANDY has to prove herself on this surface but she has shaped as though she is better than we have seen thus far and should appreciate this trip. Like Angel quest yesterday ( a good 2nd at 3/1 -placing!!) Princess Mandy has been backed all morning and is 5/2 and " all red". Had the Dazzler onboard . 350 WARWICK BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Sandofthecolosseum, 11/4 Double Pride, 4/1 Dream Leader, 9/2 Broughton Green, 12/1 Teenage Kicks, 14/1 Simply Strong, 16/1 Battlefield Bob, 33/1 Tannenberg, 100/1 Brooks Bank. DIOMED VERDICT: Not an easy race to weigh up and all the principals look open to improvement. Broughton Green will find life hard under a penalty back in novice company, notably against Double Pride, who is still engaged at Cheltenham, and SANDOFTHECOLOSSEUM. If they have a CHeltenham entry, then they should be worth following prior to the Festival? So is the case with Double Pride, not out of the places yet, and joint fav with Sandofthecolosseum. Thornton/King a good combo. 525 WARWICK BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Baby Run, 3/1 Bon Accord, Here´s Johnny, 16/1 Oranger, 25/1 Buckby Lane, 33/1 Fifty Yearson, 50/1 Notanotherdonkey. DIOMED VERDICT: A classy hunter chase which, with Here's Johnny having underperformed at Sandown in his comeback race after a season off, albeit over a trip short of his best, and Bon Accord untested on ground this soft, looks best left to BABY RUN (nap). Eye catching market here, with only 3 contenders under 25/1 in the live betting. Baby Run is now 4/6 and so far this year, Hunter Chase favourites have performed consistently well. If we consider this a 3 horse race, then that may compensate the fact it's only 2 places. Consistently in the first 3, and has Mr Twiston-Davies, his regular jockey on board. I expect this hunter chase fav to keep up the good work of previous favs in this sphere. Run predominantly on good, good to soft, but has 2 placed heavy ground efforts 640 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Prince Charlemagne, 5/2 Magnitude, 3/1 Sedgwick, 8/1 New England, 10/1 Alf Tupper, 20/1 Drizzi, 25/1 Solarias Quest, 66/1 Key Partners. DIOMED VERDICT: PRINCE CHARLEMAGNE is just preferred to Magnitude in a fairly competitive race of its type. If Prince Charlemagne " is just preferred to Magnitude" and the former becomes a non runner, then by default Magnitude has a greater chance of placing here, in this 8 -now 7 - runner race and hopefully 3 places. Dundalk's first 2 races are 21 runner flat events, with 2 strong favourites, but with only 3 places, there is a bigger chance of these not placing than placing. 730 DUNDALK BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Whodoyouthink, 5/1 Chip Tea, 6/1 Hans Crescent, 8/1 Duers, 10/1 Global Position, 14/1 Timisvar, 20/1 Headly´s Bridge, 25/1 Luigina Immacolata, 33/1 Derrycrew, 50/1 Be Jing Lady, 100/1 Wheresmeneckstrap. Only 4 horses under 25/1 here should be the ones to concentrate on for place only purposes? The favourite is the obvious choice. 830 DUNDALK BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Bobs Pride, 3/1 Emmpat, 7/2 Bashkirov, 8/1 Whatuthink, 12/1 Larkwing, 14/1 Sciatin, 16/1 Holyrood, 20/1 Big Robert, 33/1 Isabellareine. As the Irish flat season starts, Weld/Smullen become a combination I will be looking to back, predominantly each way and place only. Bobs Pride ran recently in chases and reverts to the flat in this 9 runner race. SHORTLIST Pretty much scuppered now thanks to a change to HEAVY ground at Warwick. I was keen on a few at Warwick today ( and the betting markets have not changed to be honest with the worsening ground) . Heavy ground though can be a leveller . The one race I would still be confident about at Warwick would be the 525 WARWICK hunter chase. This is a 6 runner hunter chase and Baby Run stands out for me in this race where 3 horses only are below 33/1. Baby Run has run very consistently into the places under Mr Twiston -Davies, his regular Hunter Chase partner. 1.22 or thereabouts to place - only 2 places and with a clear round should be 3 runners fighting for it. To make it nice and easy (NOT!), Baby run has a 279 day absence to overcome.The form since 2004 is 21213213212 - superbly consistent. Had a break from Dec 06 to Feb 09 and came out of it with a 2nd place ( although I suspect he may have been kept busy in point to points?) 200 SOUTHWELL This is a simple match up between Doubnov( winner by nose and short head last 2 runs ) and Resplendent Ace ( 2nd last twice by short heads -yes one of those to Doubnov) Here are the facts - Doubnov has a 5lb pull in the weights over his opponent but Resplendent Ace has a 3lb claimer to offset a little but. - Doubnov is 1/3 , 4/11 and strongly fancied in this match up. -Doubnov was the original market leader when the race had a full compliment with Resplendent Ace original 3rd favourite. How would I approach this race? Well, if Resplendent Ace can remain competitive for some of the 1 mile 6 furlongs, then I would back him currently at 3.55. I would only back with a view to trading off at a lower price in running. This is 1 mile 6 furlongs after all. Alternatively, place your faith in Doubnov to win this match up with his 5lb advantage, but Resplendent Ace has a 3 lb claimer onboard today who may negate some of that advantage. 320 THURLES - Jagoes Mill has won his last 2 chases by 17 lengths combined, and although this is a rise in grade, he is the horse that has been backed into near favouratism. Davey Russell retains the ride in an 8 runner race where 3 are 33/1 or bigger. Around 1.3 to place is reasonable against a favourite who has a grade 1 penalty to carry. 2pm - Although this is the Bulgarian League, Litex Lovech have won twice against this opposition by 7 goals in total ( 3 and 4) , and the odds look spot on. 1.18 signals goals. A concern that this is the first match since the Winter Break so some ring rustiness? Is in running and they should win comfortably. Not very liquid on Betfair but a market available with traditional bookmakers where there will be no liquidity issues. SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST 2pm Litex Lovech ( +19 goal difference) v Lokomotiv Mezdra(-13 goal difference) -the odds of 1.18 look justified. Head to heads 5-0 and 4-2 wins for Lovech, BOTH AWAY games . Over 1.5 goals is the same as the match odds but involves both sides. Over 2.5 goals for the more adventurous is around 1.6 ( but no money for it on Betfair) 200 SOUTHWELL. Win only market Alternatives Faith in Steve Drowne to get Doubnov home at 1.39 in a match up against a 3 lb claimer and with a 5 lb pull ( although negated of course) Back Resplendent Ace and hope he remains competitive - I would back at 3.5 for £100 ( my standard stake) and place a lay bet in with a fixed liability of £120 and changing the lay odds to 2.9 using Betfair KEEP BETS. If the 2.9 is matched in running, we make a guaranteed 1.20 bet on both outcomes Back Doubnov at 1.39 and put a lay bet in at 1.2 for £115 fixed liability ( if using £100 stakes) for a guaranteed 1.15 bet if 1,2 is reached in running Back Doubnov on the nose at 1.39 and hope the fact he was original fav in this race and Resplendent Ace was original 3rd fav, is borne out in the race. 320 THURLES - a competitive grade 2 race this one with An Cathaoir Mor, Jagoes Mills and Kempes likely to dominate. I fancy Jagoes Mills here to place under Davey Russell . This horse has now been backed into favouratism in an 8 runner race where 3 of the 8 are 33/1 or bigger. Concerns? - competitive race - ground was cut up yesterday in the back straight Positives - Davey Russell - 5 horse race really and 3 places. 525 WARWICK - I love the form for Baby Run of 21213213212 in his last 11 races, the majority of which are hunter chases. Will this negate the return from a 279 day absence, the 2 places only and the heavy ground?