Monday, 3 March 2008

3/3

First Buddy won at Bangor for a very negligible loss in the hope Seeking the Buck would win.
Shavansky won for the bigger return at Huntingdon

Adopted Hero consented to win, but no great harm done

The GRey Berry came close -2nd , and in retrospect given the field size preference should have been for the place only bet

Gee Dee won this 2 horse race with 3 into 1 selection Ellerslie Ali 2nd.

Great run by Cripsey Brook ,2nd by 1 length, alas returns just stakes for each way backers

3 INTO 1

1 winner at, erm, 1/20 on is nothing to write home about. Ellerslie Ali appeared in a 50/50 race and came 2nd to Gee Dee.

LINGFIELD

210

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Silent Master, 5/1 Monashee Rock, 6/1 Precipice, 7/1 Clifton Four, 8/1 Dream Rainbow, 12/1 Ambrix, Bonne, 25/1 Bartercard, Sweet Refrain, 50/1 Eau Sauvage, Ubiquitous Bounty.


SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Clifton Four, Monashee Rock and Precipice all returning from a break, this could be SILENT MASTER's chance to shed his maiden tag. His latest C&D second was a useful effort and a reproduction may be good enough here

Price gapper reflected in early morning market. Watch out for Dream Rainbow, currently 11/2. Silent master may be worthy of support here for the Johnston/Fanning combination. Alternatives? - As I say, Dream Rainbow each way incase it's a market move for a horse returning after 250+ days

240
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Kyrie Eleison, 13/8 Days Of Pleasure, 8/1 Ramprakash, 10/1 Hoar Frost, 16/1 Site Sentry, 33/1 Malt Empress, Red Sonja .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DAYS OF PLEASURE has improved with each start to date and with this step up in trip expected to suit, he is taken to prove too strong for Kyrie Eleison.[PSm]

Here's an idea - can we lay 3rd favs in these perceived 2 horse races? Be worth looking at similar past races and seeing strike rate.
Anyway, level stakes on the front 2 produces marginal profit for Days of Pleasure and nice profit on Kyrie Eleison. NOTE - this is a maiden race and why is Red Sonja currently 16/1 in the morning market? - hmmmmm 16/1 system selection. Again the more speculative might want to chance her.

310
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Thoughtsofstardom, 7/2 Dodaa, 6/1 Bentley, Earl Compton, 8/1 One Way Ticket, 10/1 Fastrac Boy, Rosie Cross, 33/1 Easily Naimd .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM isn't the type to be lumping on at short odds but he is a useful performer in this grade and won with plenty in hand at Kempton last time. He is taken to track the likely strong pace and swamp Dodaa in the closing stages.

I want to back the first 3 to level stakes , again to £10 stakes, leaves 95p profit on Thoughtsofstardom(Spotlight none too keen), £11.40 profit on Dodaa, £28.50 profit on BEntley.

Alternatives? Each way on BEntley

340
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Millfield, 5/1 Desert Dreamer, Paradise Dancer, 6/1 Count Ceprano, Royal Envoy, 8/1 Dvinsky, 9/1 Gimme Some Lovin, 10/1 Scarlet Flyer, 12/1 Smokin Joe .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is very tricky with any of the nine capable of winning on a going day. Desert Dreamer is respected on his first run for a stable that has done well with this type in the past, but perhaps the return to Lingfield will see COUNT CEPRANO add to his tall

"all nine capable of winning on a going day" - why not back Smokin Joe each way though - expect to lose your stakes but ,you never know........

STRATFORD
400
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Mickmacmagoole, 6/1 Daraybad, Rawdon, 8/1 Brousse En Feux, Truckers Delight, Warsaw Pact, 10/1 Allez Frank, Arctic Magic, 16/1 Billy Murphy, Young Yozza, 20/1 Great Tsar, 25/1 Chancery Lad, 33/1 Court Alliance, Meersbrook .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MICKMACMAGOOLE was a costly loser last week but it was a satisfactory effort given his trainer's stated priority of a clear round following a previous fall. Arguably still very well in, he should be hard to beat if back on song and deserves another chance. Rawdon is fear most

A chance can be taken on Mickmacmagoole each way , or at least place only, with a bit on the win, although I think we've missed the winning boat.

WOLVES
320
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Given A Choice, 7/2 Sawwaah, 8/1 Dante´s Diamond, 12/1 Silidan, 50/1 Miss Wolf .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The consistent and honest GIVEN A CHOICE is 6lb better off with Sawwaah than when beaten a neck by him over C&D five weeks ago and should take this back under stronger handling.

Again by backing Given a choice with £10 and Sawaah with £6, I create a break even on Given with nice returns on Sawaah. Dantes Diamond looks the fly in the ointment

FOOTY

2 of the top 3 meet in the French Ligue 2 - you remember LE Havre who I keep an eye on, along with Nantes in this league. Well, tonight's encounter looks like a low scoring affair. Le Havre are massive at 2/1 away from home in a game which should be decided by a single goal. Borth teams are on a reasonable run, although Le Havre are the unbeaten team in their last 6.
This match would appear to be in running so I will adopt an under 2.5 goal trade to monitor in running .
If still 0-0 at half time, you may like to speculate on a Le Havre victory at odds even bigger than the current 3.55.
Again this match is too close to call so the above will be very speculative.


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