Pentasilea placed for each way backers - Dansimar imperious as the price suggested but we got effectively a free bet against the fav. Misbehaviour won against a 3 onto 1 selection -a case of seconditis there yesterday which was most frustratiing after a good 11/4 Cleymor House win
As the price move suggested Highglen lost.
Paradigm shift 12/1 in the morning BUT 20/1 at the off thus disqualifying the horse for the purposes of the 16/1 system .
John Forbes won at 4/1 -a loser for the lay system I am monitoring. As said before, I am looking at the performance of those priced 3/1 and less, and thought about widening the net to 5/1 SP to get more qualifiers but 2 winners already do not augur well for the 5/1 price banded selections - this is very much in the monitoring phase
4 2nds I believe for the 3 into 1 - again cursed by perceived 2 horse races
Mug punter acca blown by England's draw but worth a punt. Enhanced odds of 1.67 for a 1/100 odds team came in really well in Germany's 6-0 demolition job of Luxembourg - it's worth speculating isn't it rather than dismissing any involvement in a game where the favs are 1.03 to win on Betfair.
KEMPTON
210
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Greenbridge, 5/4 Procas De Thaix, 9/1 Quillan Hill, 20/1 Uncle Eli, 33/1 Launde, 40/1 Wiesenfurst, 50/1 Lydlinch, 100/1 Foxy Bob, Tanners Den .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Greenbridge won by a wide margin at Doncaster and gets in without a penalty but will have his work cut out to beat PROCAS DE THAIX if Nicky Henderson's gelding is back in the form which saw him run Theatre Girl close at Wincanton |
5/4 the field each of 2 - currently 2.36 and 2.32 - level stakes leaves only very small profits. Ratio of £13 on procas and £7 on Greenbridge loads profit on Procas and leaves a marginal loss on Greenbridge.
Each way backers will be afforded enhanced odds given the perceived 2 horse race. Uncle Eli and Launde in the absence of Quillan Hill are the obvious contenders - backing both each way may be an option should one of the market leaders consent NOT to run to its pricing.
315
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Mount Oscar, 100/30 Quickbeam, 7/2 Soixante, 4/1 Orphelin Collonges, 12/1 Fix The Rib, 25/1 Paradise Regained, The Good Guy, The Hudnalls, 33/1 Major Upset, R´Cam, 66/1 Estrica, 100/1 Flanagans Choice, 200/1 Another Conker .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MOUNT OSCAR (nap), not discredited under conditions which possibly placed too much emphasis on speed in a competitive handicap last time, must be hard to beat if he is in anything like the form he showed in the first half of the season. Quickbeam could give him most to do Trigger words " must be hard to beat...if" and in Spotlight "Looked as though he was going places before Christmas, scoring in good style over C&D; reportedly unsuited by left-handed tracks when pulled up next twice and shaped a bit more encouragingly last time when there may have been too much emphasis on speed; should be hard to beat if anywhere near his best." IS there anything to back up this optimism? - form of last 3 runs is bad BUT was in class 1 and class 2 - this is class 4 where form figures are far more encouraging. - course and distance winner - fresh - 38 days since last run - top RPR, top topspeed - postdata selection - familiar jockey in Joe Tizzard - NEGATIVES - 11/4 for a good thing is a suspiciously big price. The market is very condensed at the head - Betfair shows 3.75, 3.95, 3.95 The front 3 can be backed if prices remain 3.7, 3.95 and 3.95 with a ratio of £10, £6, £6 producing a profit on Mount Oscar and £1.50 profit on the 2 near market rivals Quickbeam and Soixante - the "must be hard to beat" leans me towards piling the profits on Mount oscar BUT the condensed prices mean I cannot dismiss the 2 other horses. 2 mile 5 is perhaps not an ideal distance either. For those with faith in Spotlight and if you can dismiss the "if", then 11/4 is a good price for Mount Oscar standalone - 1.57 to place and 3.7 to win means you could create a break even bet by backing the horse in the place only market and then backing the horse in the win only market with the potential WINNINGS from the place only bet 530
Another "should be hard to beat" if we look at Spotlight - and a potential price gapper were it not for the fact this is a hunters chase with Mr Horton in the saddle - who he? SOUTHWELL 250 BETTING FORECAST: Evs Fire Up The Band, 6/4 Savile´s Delight, 6/1 Guto, 20/1 Regal Royale .
I will chance the reverse forecast here - on betfair - 1-4 is 3.25 and 4-1 is 2.74 - dutchable to level stakes. Both horses can be backed to level stakes with a greater profit on Fire up the band HANDICAP TOP WEIGHTS with 5lbs or more than 2nd highest weight 3/1 and lower bookmaker price 325 Southwell - Came Back - currently 17/10 650 Wolves - Blackheath - currently 5/2 5/1 and lower 230 Newcastle - Bonny Rock - currently 9/2 305 NEwcastle - Lindsay - currently 5/1 Would be interesting to see how these perform as lays -if at all! | ||||||
| 3 into 1 4 2nds I think yesterday and a winner at 11/4 -very frustrating
|
FOOTY
As the mug punter said yesterday only a crazy fool get involved in under 21's! and so it is with friendlies.!
There was I thinking I'd found a good bookings points bet for today in the England friendly and lo and behold the bet I want (5 points or under) is at 1.43! - D'oh!
Argies are at evens away to Egypt, and if fielding a full squad ,should give a good account against the African Nation hot pots.
Brazil are layable against Sweden tonight in what might be a tight early game. If 0-0 for an extended period, hopefully the Brazil odds will lengthen sufficiently to allow a free trade bet? If Sweden score first of course, it will be ideal
Friendlies mean no bet really for me - I suppose under 2.5 goals in the England match stands out as a good trade for the first half
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