25/3

Quartano was a good lay - we built up a case for laying and it proved correct. The clues were all there for all to see, as, I suppose was Caribbean Sunset, 176 day absence, early season maiden, big field. Well both Montevideo and Ellway propsect placed so whoever you decided on came in and around evens to place.

MAgnifico was the most interesting case yesterday. I mentioned this looked like a stable gamble last time. The betting forecaster obviously paid too much attention to the win last time, after pulling up twice and unseating in his last 3 then bolting home at , erm, 14/1!. We were, indeed, a race too late! A a mechanical 3 into 1 system bet, we wouldn't normally analyse selections but it proved a worthwhile exercise .

FAIRYHOUSE

350
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Psycho, 8/1 Save The Bacon, 10/1 Definate Spectacle, Fen Game, Major Sensation, Roman Villa, The Last Hurrah, 12/1 Brave Right, Jaamid, Pom Flyer, 14/1 Alabama Banjo, Cloone Rocket, Ri Na Deise, Vaqueras, Viso.

Hark back to Cheltenham and Carberry's ill judged ride on Psycho who should have won as he liked but was left with far too much to do. Recompense today in this 15 runner handicap? Worth a shot at odds on. Has the look of a potential price gapper but Irish racing don't provide postdata etc

FONTWELL
220
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Dansimar, 5/1 Pentasilea, 7/1 Aya, 14/1 Markila, 16/1 Happily Ever After, 20/1 Twice Charmed, 25/1 Flamehairtemptress, 100/1 Another Storm, Dareyna, Quaystone Lady .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to see past DANSIMAR, who has nothing to fear from Pentasilea on their recent Chepstow encounter.

Pentasilea each way is the obvious contender against Dansimar

320
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 White On Black, 3/1 Highglen, 4/1 Misbehaviour, 10/1 Honduras, Royal Prodigy, 12/1 Tashkandi, 14/1 The Preacher, 66/1 Stroppi Poppi .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WHITE ON BLACK likes these sharper tracks and he's a safer bet than Highglen, who has questions to answer on his debut for Evan Williams. Misbehaviour is the other with decent credentials.[AWJ]

The straight 8 always worth looking at from an each way perspective
Again we have 3 tiers
TIER 1 - White, Highglen, Misbehaviour
TIER 2 - Honduras, Royal, Tash, The Preacher
TIER 3 - Stroppi Roppi

Only one perceived outsider and 6 lively each way contenders. Misbehaviour is the obvious contender for each way backers, but the more speculative will look to tier 2 and Royal Prodigy, now 7/1 early prices. Note Highglen now 13/2 - has the betting forecaster misread this one or is it a sign it's not Highglen's day?

500
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 River Beauty, 7/4 Ashleys Poppy, 5/1 Lennox Gardens, 15/2 Bristol Delauriere, 20/1 Paradigm Shift, 33/1 Murphy´s Mate, 50/1 Smart N Sharp .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ASHLEYS POPPY is going the right way and likely to give it a good go from the front if handling this different surface. River Beauty is the one she has to beat.[AWJ]

Why is Paradigm shift 12/1 early prices? A debutant in a bumper - significant?

510 SEDGEFIELD
John Forbes is 6lbs higher than any other horse qualifying it for my lay system I am monitoring. Needs to be 5/1 SP or lower (regardless of Betfair price)

3 into 1

2 non runners yesterday with Amorleigh the only winner. I mentioned Magnifico's chances. Autograph was beaten by 2nd and 3rd. Lady Pilot fell when in with a clear chance of winning - that's jumps racing. I'll be updating my results soon on this to see if the 50% strike rate continues and the staking plans prove still effective. Level stakes don't make a profit but 4 other staking plans do - it's all down to the strike rate regardless of prices

250 Fontwell	Cleymor House
300 Sedgefield	Turbo shandy
320 Fontwell	White on Black
430 Fontwell	Maximix
500 Fontwell	River Beauty
520 Pontefract	Riguez dancer

Riguez dancer appears in an apprentice ridden race and after the debacle of the last one I got involved in, I cannot be confident in these non professional jockeys. Turbo Shandy and River BEauty appear in perceived 2 horse races, the latter in a bumper. Cleymore House is looking for the 4 timer

FOOTY

I heard an interesting conversation re friendlies and the advice given was to go low on bookings because refs normally don't book even if, in a competitive game, it is a definite yellow - one to bear in mind with England v France

We have a 1/100 shot in German under 21's v Luxembourg. Now this screams out "enhanced odds bet" surely!. The best I can come up win is over 4.5 goals at 1.67. In a very illiquid market (BEWARE!) any unquoted score is around 1.42 , which far exceeds the 1.03 on offer in the match odds market.

I reiterate this is a not very liquid market so prices being put up for backers are NOT necessarily the correct market prices. (on BEtfair anyway)

1.03 is, of course ,ideal lay material - £100 bet will cost £3 liability and you never know!

MUG PUNTER ACCA

1	Italy U20 v Austria U20 (Backing Italy U20 @ 1.44)
2	Azerbaijan U21 v Italy U21 (Backing Italy U21 @ 1.09)
3	England U21 v Poland U21 (Backing England U21 @ 1.27)
4	Germany U21 v Luxembourg U21 (Backing Germany U21 @ 1.03)
5	Spain U21 v Kazakhstan U21 (Backing Spain U21 @ 1.08)

The big question mark will be concerning the under 20's Italy side, but at 1.44 they certainly bump up the odds.
Under 21's betting is for the fool hardy or the MUG PUNTER, which I am and odds of 2.22 are too hard to resist!