The day started off great with Lady Pilot winning at SP 15/2 -bigger on Betfair, but my opposition to They all laughed -the 3 into 1 selection, floundered, as, at 5/6, he won readily. obviously the drift on red Wine was fully justified yesterday. Nice to get another price gapper in, in High Five Society at 4/6 - 2 on the trot in a poor class 7 classified event - a nice 3 length victory left me in no bother
2 out of 2 for the 3 into 1 yesterday albeit at prices which will hardly have you writing the resignation letter to the boss.
Hugely disappointed in my Bayern analysis - why select a side who have scored 5 away from home in a 2 leg affair where away goals count? Ridiculous. A look at the team news confirmed my supicions that it was job done but I was unable to change the blog. Hope you used the "questions" to suss this out!
Celtic just didn't win, and even at home against a Dundee side weakened .
I put all the clues up for the Chelsea score but pussied out by doing the over 2.5 goals instead of over 3.5 goals at a juicy 2.8.
Looking at other top 4 scorelines against Derby, I could have been well justified in expecting 4, but was swayed too much by the recent 2-0 head to head.
Loss on the Villa trade which I traded out of after Villa equalised. 1.65 to back and 3.5 to lay left a loss for trading .
One of those days - the good pile made up from Lady Pilot eroded by some poor football decisions
Onto today and Cheltenham is cramming them in - the races I mean.
Ground is officially good to soft although I suspect there is a bit more soft than good.
CHELTENHAM
1230
Amateur riders novices chase - I'll get me coat!
It's a 4 miler as well and an ideal opportunity to lay the favourite with a view to backing at a higher price in running.
There's no point me trying to solve this puzzle.
105
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Air Force One, Albertas Run, 5/1 Pomme Tiepy, 13/2 Silverburn, 7/1 Oscar Park, 8/1 Starzaan, 12/1 Joe Lively, 20/1 Battlecry, Roll Along, Verasi, 50/1 Bagan,
Do you remember Pomme Tiepy - the Willie Mullins mare? Has won twice when I've selected her on the blog.
The fact this is a scoop 6 race and betfair have a "name the favourite" market whould tell you all you need to know. With the favourite currently 5.9, you can back 6 horses to level stakes and hope you'll landed the winner amongst those 6 selections.
With 5.9 the shortest price, that horse will incur a slight loss. Looking at the Betfair market, Albertas Run is the 5.9 horse, then there's Pomme Tiepy, Air force one, Silverburn, Oscar Park, Starzaan.
220
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Master Minded, Voy Por Ustedes, 4/1 Tamarinbleu, Twist Magic, 11/1 Fair Along, 16/1 Mansony, 25/1 Newmill, Schindlers Hunt, 500/1 Contraband ,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Paul Nicholls has found it hard to split Master Minded and Twist Magic and both have looked potential winners of this race in their turn this season. Master Minded's home work suggests he might just be extra special but, with Tamarinbleu, Newmill and Fair Along at it hammer and tongs up front, his jumping is going to be placed under extra pressure on a course he has never tackled. There's no doubt VOY POR USTEDES will have to better both last year's form and this season's efforts to retain his crown but he blooms at this fixture and the blistering gallop could play into his hands |
Very interesting race this one - betting forecaster makes it a 4 horse race
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Master Minded, Voy Por Ustedes, 4/1 Tamarinbleu, Twist Magic
with 11/1 bar these 4
Again these 4, at current prices can be backed to level stakes, with a gradual increase in returns as we move down the card. Voy por estedes and Masterminded will incur slight profit, with the really big payout going on the other 2.
Current Betfair prices of 4.1, 4.2, 5.4, 5.9 allow this level stakes dutching.
Other angles in? Well with the prices so tight, laying the fav to trade in running with 3 close rivals could be an option?
The place market really tells us the difficulty of the race with the shortest priced 1.65 and this, to place in the first 3 in an 8 runner race!
255
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Mossbank, 7/2 Our Vic, The Listener, 11/2 L´Antartique, 7/1 Turko, 12/1 Racing Demon, 20/1 Billyvoddan, 33/1 Justified, 50/1 Knight Legend ,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A clutch of these are within a few pounds of one another but the one which looks most likely to run to form is THE LISTENER (nap), who is preferred on that basis. This gutsy front-runner comes here in good form and, with today's shorter trip a very possible plus after finishing just behind Mossbank when they filled the places behind Denman in the Lexus Chase over 3m at Leopardstown in December, may be able to turn that form around now. Mossbank is still a big danger and may well be next best.[ |
Again, a dutchable race with 4.4 the fav on Betfair, IF we can put faith in the price market being accurate.
2 non runners out of the 11 brings the field down to 9, 3 horses are 25/1 or bigger -can we dismiss these? If so, brings the field down to 6.
The listener to place? 1.85 is reasonable enough
330
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tidal Bay's Arkle win laid to rest the doubts about the form of Howard Johnson's yard and INGLIS DREVER is clearly the one to beat in his bid to win this race for the third time, having confirmed himself at least as good as ever this season. Robert Thornton keeps faith with the 2006 winner My Way De Solzen but his performances this season leave a good deal to be desired and blinkers clearly need to inspire. Stable companion Blazing Bailey looks a more solid proposition and cast iron for the frame, with Kazal most interesting of the rest.[AC] |
A 3 miler over good to soft ground which may be turning softer as the day progresses.
Price gap is there - Spotlight commentary - " clearly the one to beat"- "and very much the one to beat on track that plays to his strengths (not out of first two in six visits)."- TOP RPR - TOP TOPSPEED - 7 tips - won his last 2 - highest official rating.
NEGATIVES - on a hatrick in this race - very difficult probability wise to wrap up - 17 runner field - 3 mile distance in ground which might become soft - no 9 year old has won this race
Despite the price gapper potential, clearly a lay for me to monitor in running. With 3 miles ahead of us, ample opportunity to trade out if Inglis is running well and revert to backing at the end of the race.
The rests of the races are really imponderables without .I suppose, insider knowledge. Perhaps a scan using the 16.1 system may unearth some interesting qualifiers with an amateur riders race and a bumper ending the card.
HEXHAM
Soft ground
230
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to believe that Millie The Filly will be at her best just five days after finishing exhausted on desperate ground, so BOLLIN RUTH, who also comes here in good heart and has her ideal conditions, is preferred.[ |
A case to oppose Milly the Filly?-lower odds in the place only market.
340
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Blackpool Billy, 11/4 Battle Stations, 9/2 Exit Forty Four, 20/1 Stark Raven, 33/1 Paddymcgintysgoat, 50/1 Scuzme, Silverdales, 66/1 Daniel´s Dream, Naval Attache, 100/1 Kinfayre Boy, Perez .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BLACKPOOL BILLY hasn't been given much time to recover from his exertions in terrible conditions at Ayr last week but he would not need to be at his best to follow up.[SR] |
455
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Boris The Blade, 3/1 Topaz Lady, 13/2 Newgate Suds, 10/1 Cheers Thank You, 12/1 Nifty Roy, 14/1 Political Sox, 16/1 Ben Nelly, 20/1 Northern Vic, 25/1 Oscar Trial, 33/1 Dantor, Vicious Prince, 50/1 Into The Dawn, 66/1 Bobby Icata ,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BORIS THE BLADE showed a willing attitude to score at Ayr last time and will take all the beating if able to repeat that effort just six days later. Serious alternatives look thin on the ground, with Topaz Lady perhaps the biggest danger |
Another coming back 6 days after heavy ground performance at Ayr, now in soft ground near the end of the card. One to lay for me over 3 miles to back at a higher price. Problem is -as Spotlight says - no real opposition!
SOUTHWELL
315
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Blue Empire, 5/2 Ugenius, 9/2 Boundless Prospect, 12/1 Outlook, Persian Fox, 25/1 Zeffirelli, 33/1 Amazing Spirit, Rambling Socks .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There are a couple in the race with higher official ratings than BLUE EMPIRE but both have doubts about them for one reason or another and the selection is the safer. Ugenius will be thereabouts if putting his poor Tuesday run behind him.[GN] |
Chance on Outlook and Persian Fox each way with doubts about the front 3 for one reason or another in a poor seller
3 into 1
540 SOUTHWELL - CLEVELAND
looks to be my only qualifier today
FOOTBALL
Nothing really appeals in tonights football. Werder Bremen at 4/7 look layable perhaps to trade off at a higher price. I can't write off Rangers at all
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