3/5

ONE A DAY - 355 WINDSOR - SUITED AND BOOTED TO PLACE - very illiquid betting market at time of writing so ideally wait til nearer the off






Golden shine would be my place only selection today but at 1.04 I cannot really put him up. It really will be a major shock if this horse is beaten by 2 others in a 3 horse race. The soft ground is a slight concern as well.
The shortlisted races look good 355 sees a maiden and they are always entered into with trepidation. Here Suited and Booted's nearest rival is a non runner and this maiden represents Hannon/Hughes and was short head 2nd on comeback run in April 2010.
Fame and Glory ran poorly on seasonal debut -a sign of decline or a throwing off of the cobwebs? Only a 2 the place race which is a slight niggle.
Jessies Dream is "impossible to look beyond" and " will win his beginners chase" but , as the only jumps selection today , he must complete however. Is the strongest selection if gauged on confidence from the journalists and that is compelling.
So who to chose?
I will go with 355 Windsor because nearest market rival is out, short head 2nd on return, Hughes/Hannon juveniles are solid this flat season, has had recent run , only 4horses under 14/1
Slight niggles - maiden race and good to soft ground - short head 2nd on all weather and now back on turf and good to soft




Christiano Ronaldo is on my Christmas list after that 89th minute header saved the say and saved the multiple.
I think this weekend shows the teams who really MUST WIN tend to find a way, be it a Gerrard back pass, or a last gasp header from the winking one.

FOOTBALL
745pm - Bohemians v Drogheda United - 1.38 - early in the ROI season and I hope I have proved it is a very inconsistent league betting wise. Head to heads, Bohs have scored 4 against Drogs in their last 2 games.
There are other teams but in lower leagues that can't be researched

HORSE RACING

215 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Radharcnafarraige, 100/30 Park Avenue, 4/1 Clondinnery, 5/1 Snow Mountain, 7/1 Triple Eight, 10/1 Future Impact, 16/1 Master Melody, 20/1 Madeira Classic, 25/1 Big Tex, 50/1 Foolproof, 66/1 Lake Wanaka.

A maiden with a few debutants. Radharcnafarraige comes from a strong stable and has run on 11th April and placed. 7 horses under 33/1 show an element of competitiveness - illiquid betting market

230 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Jambo Bibi, 6/1 Ree´s Rascal, 9/1 Beach Patrol, 10/1 Avonmore Star, Dancing With Fire, 14/1 Columba´s Boy, 25/1 Lord Avon, Volturi.

DIOMED VERDICT: Just a slight concern this race will come a bit quickly but otherwise it is difficult to get away from Friday's Lingfield second JAMBO BIBI. Ree's Rascal and Dancing With Fire make some appeal among the newcomers and are worth checking in themarket.

Price gapper here. One of only 3 under 14/1 in the early market. This is a 5 furlong maiden and the price gapper favourite has only had one run. 5 debutants and 5 furlongs are 2 reasons to tread cautiously, but there is no getting away from the big price gap.

Jambo Bibi, whose dam won over 1m, comes from a yard that has made a tremendous start with their juveniles and she looked the likely winner over 1f out, but didn´t pick up as expected when asked for her effort by Hughes.

Will it really wom too soon? This is 5 furlongs not 3 miles 4 the horse raced over - 1.12 to place

235 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Fulfilment, 5/1 Jezza, 7/1 Jackie Kiely, 15/2 Aspirational, 8/1 Meirig´s Dream, Polish Power, 10/1 Outland, 12/1 Lucy´s Perfect, 14/1 Yemeni Princess, 16/1 St Savarin, 25/1 Heart Of Tuscany, Phoenix Enforcer.

DIOMED VERDICT: FULFILMENT, having only her fifth start, is open to improvement and can recover the losses incurred on her first start in a handicap. Jezza is feared most. In a day of limited opportunities, there is a hint of a price gap about Fulfilment in the live market - 3/1 - - - - 7/1. A horse priced at 3/1 though, is hardly a rock solid proposition 255 WINDSOR BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Aspro Mavro, 5/1 Kidlat, 11/2 Putra One, 6/1 Franco Is My Name, 15/2 Caster Sugar, 8/1 At Wits End, 17/2 Dubai Crest, 11/1 Wiggy Smith, 12/1 Nizhoni Dancer, 16/1 Tinshu, 20/1 Ramona Chase. DIOMED VERDICT: Quite a few possibilities. A chance is taken on turf debutant AT WITS END, who is on a fair mark on his AW maiden win last autumn and ought to have more to offer after just three starts. Dubai Crest may be the best alternative. The last 3 occasions I have flagged up a market mover ridden by Ted Durcan, he has won on all of them. Here we have Nizhoni Dancer at 6/1 in the live betting ( check out his betting forecast price) and Ted takes the ride. Remember this is a retained Godolphin jockey so we have a class act in the saddle on our side. 310 WARWICK BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Golden Shine, 5/1 Majestic Style, 14/1 Dancing Tara, 33/1 Alexs Rainbow, DIOMED VERDICT: It is difficult to see past GOLDEN SHINE who sets a good standard on her Newmarket form. Down to 3 runners and could be an automatic one a day choice in a poor day for selections. 2nd fav is a non runner which should make Golden Shine an even more solid bet 320 DOWNROYAL BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Rigour Back Bob, 7/4 Meath All Star, 9/2 Kusadasi, 8/1 Caulkin, 20/1 Flemross, High Amenity, 25/1 D Four Dave, 33/1 Dunroe Boy, Onthegoagain, 50/1 Caledon Boy, 66/1 Kirkpatrickspride, Lord Rudi. 2 market leaders are well known jumps horses in Ireland in a race where only 4 are under 20/1 and only 5 are under 33/1. 330 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Valeur, 7/2 Advertisement, Udabaa, 9/2 Plutocraft, 8/1 Lutine Charlie, 14/1 Edition, 16/1 Motirani, 20/1 Amends, Norse Dame, 25/1 Formulation, 33/1 Lalika, 50/1 Donair, 66/1 Farmer Palmer, Two Minds. DIOMED VERDICT: The well-bred Valeur is an interesting newcomer. UDABAA, who seems sure to improve further as he continues to strengthen physically, may prove the best of those with experience. Udabaa is 7/4 and has been well backed this early on. Has had a run on 17th April 2010 which is a good sign 355 WINDSOR BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Christmas Carnival, 2/1 Suited And Booted, 13/2 Yarra River, 8/1 Peponi, 9/1 Business Bay, 16/1 Distant Waters, 20/1 Barberhoney, Wide Ranging, 25/1 New Code, 28/1 Cheers Big Ears, 33/1 Calm And Serene, 100/1 Bibiana Bay. DIOMED VERDICT: This probably lies between CHRISTMAS CARNIVAL and Suited And Booted, with the former's marginally superior form earning him narrow preference. Only 5 horses are under 20/1 in this maiden. The front 2 importantly have had recent runs and Suited and Booted is the Hughes/Hannon horse and surely, with the stable in such good form, and with the recent run, he has a great chance to place? 405 CHEPSTOW BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mountain Forest, 11/2 Dansimar, Googoobarabajagal, 13/2 Hassadin, 9/1 Picot De Say, 10/1 Intersky Music, Mustajed, 16/1 Eastwell Smiles, Whitcombe Spirit, 25/1 Sweet Request, 50/1 Tiffany Lady. DIOMED VERDICT: MOUNTAIN FOREST has come to hand on the AW lately and he gets the vote back on turf though there are possibilities about the hurdlers Googoobarabajagal and Hassadin. Mountain forest is a price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap and deserves consideration, but there is a niggle that the horse is on turf today having done his winning on the all weather. Dansimar is a market mover into 9/2 415 CURRAGH BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Fame And Glory, 5/1 Recharge, 13/2 Popmurphy, 10/1 Galileo´s Choice, 16/1 Dixie Music. A strong Ballydoyle horse in FAme and Glory, strongly backed already and a huge price gapper. 420 DOWNROYAL BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Jessies Dream, 7/2 Havagoodsip, 16/1 Castlewellan, Fane Oscar, 20/1 Corporation, Streedagh Lady, 25/1 Lightening Sky, Send For Paddy, Zauber, 33/1 Dahra One, Norwich Flyer, Roseannsbishop, 50/1 Count McCormack, Hamiltoncove, Instigator, Lake Return, Roley, 66/1 Eve´s Apple, Only 2 horses under 25/1 in the live market and it is interesting that the excellent Jason Maguire makes the trip across the pond for the ride on Jessies Dream. This is a beginners chase so the L plates are on. 425 WINDSOR BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 King´s Song, 11/2 Foxhaven, 13/2 Aurorian, 7/1 Grey Granite, 15/2 Featherweight, 8/1 Hollow Green, 9/1 Strathcal, 11/1 Shimoni, 14/1 Norman The Great, 25/1 Pass The Port, 40/1 El Diego. DIOMED VERDICT: KING'S SONG can reverse last week's form with Aurorian on 6lb better terms. Strong price gapper here for Ryan Moore and Sir Michael Stoute - a good 2nd last time out. 500 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Latansaa, 9/2 Afsare, 11/2 Azimuth, Eton Forever, 13/2 Fancy Vivid, Strong Vigilance, 8/1 Green Destiny, 14/1 Soho Theatre, 25/1 Embarkation, Verity Lane, 28/1 Glacial, 33/1 British Sea Power, Stoical, 66/1 One Hit Wonder. DIOMED VERDICT: Several runners hold Pattern entries, including newcomers Afsare and Green Destiny, and the market should prove informative but LATANSAA may be able to put his experience to good use. Lataansaa is now strong at 7/4 for Marcus Tregoning in a maiden of 6 debutants . The selection has had 2 recent 3rd place runs 535 CHEPSTOW BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Youm Jamil, 4/1 Magic Omen, 15/2 La Pantera, 17/2 Missionaire, 10/1 Agony And Ecstasy, Gallant Eagle, 11/1 White Devil, 12/1 Shabak Hom, Sir Bruno, 16/1 Texan Star, 20/1 Avon River, Tuscan King. DIOMED VERDICT: YOUM JAMIL could be poised to make a major impact off a fair mark on handicap debut. The main danger is Magic Omen. A one a day selection last time in maiden company , MAgic Omen delivered another 2nd place . Handicap debut today so more difficult on paper but a favourite. Reminds me of the profile for another Mark Johnston horse Greyfriarschoristar. 605 CHEPSTOW BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Fernando Torres, 11/2 Hobson, Spinning Ridge, 13/2 Cadeaux Fax, 15/2 Abhainn, Piazza San Pietro, 8/1 Space Station, 9/1 Unlimited, 14/1 Dr Wintringham, 16/1 Foreign Investment, Harare, 25/1 Memphis Man, 50/1 Commandingpresence, Miskin Spirit. DIOMED VERDICT: Fernando Torres and Spinning Ridge should go well but UNLIMITED landed a gamble in this race in 2008 and proved that all his ability is still there with a Wolverhampton win in March. 4 seconds on the trot and beaten by a length or less on each occasion. The horse's mark does not seem to have been affected. When you have a race, though ,where the market leader is 7/2, this signifies an open handicap. SHORTLIST 230 KEMPTON - Jambo Bibi is a very big price gapper today and was a good 2nd only on 30th April 2010. This is a 5 furlong maiden and there are 5 debutants. All 2 year olds here so an additional negative factor, but this is another Hannon horse with a recent run. 1.12 to place 310 WARWICK - 3 horses and 2 places and a 1/9 favourite.Golden shine is 1.15 to win and 1.04 to place. Hugely obvious place only chance. Will a 1/9 chance get beaten by 2 in a 3 horse race? The price is very restrictive but a really solid one a day. Let's investigate whether we can back for the win? REcent run? - yes on 15th April 2010 Analysis of last run "Only in the clear around 1f out, she had too much ground to make up on the winner, but she kept on well without being given a hard time (only hit once with the whip) and gave the impression there will be plenty of improvement to come. Her trainer won this in 2005 with Flashy Wings and this one could be quite useful in time." Better performance last time with a clearer run? Group 1 Phoenix Stakes entry A 2 year old race and the hope is a baby , still learning, will replicate promising initial run. 320 DOWNROYAL - " plenty of dead wood" and the live market agrees. Only 4 horses under 20/1 here (only 5 under 33/1) and 2 well know Irish horses in Rigour Back Bob and Meath all star. Strong recent form. Rigour Back bob is the favourite. Tough to split these 2, and we need to assume, of course, that 2 miles 6 furlongs is going to be completed. 1.16 and 1.23 the front 2 to place. Any involvement here will assume that both horses will place as I cannot split them. 355 WINDSOR - significant non runner in Christmas Carol really opens this race up now for Suited and Booted who shared short priced favouratism with the non runner. Hannon/Hughes juvenile with nearest market rival out is very enticing Short head 2nd on return on 27th April 2010 - a strong place only contender? Only 4 under 14/1 should dominate.1.25 to place, albeit in an illiquid market. 415 CURRAGH - I did put up Fame and Glory as a strong contender in his seasonal comeback and he came 3rd. Analysis of that race ""Don´t be disappointed," was the message from Aidan O´Brien about Irish Derby winner Fame And Glory as he ran a couple of stones below his best. He had a reasonable position in the race but didn´t pick up when he was asked to and once Murtagh knew he wasn´t going to win he wasn´t at all hard on him. He obviously needed the run badly and judgement must be reserved on him until he´s seen out again." He is 2/5 in the win market to regain the winning thread - and remember this is the IRish Derby winner. 1.38 to win and 1.13 to place. A strong contender if we take on trust that the initial poor performance on seasonal debut was blowing the cobwebs off . Only 2 places. 420 DOWNROYAL - Jessies Dream is " impossible to look beyond" - has the admirable Jason MAguire on board who I really rate. This is the analysis of his last chase race "This was a big step up in class for Jessies Dream and it was a big ask to win it, but he ran well and will win his beginners´ chase. " Extreme confidence from the analyst backs up the "impossible to look beyond" of Spotlight. 535 CHEPSTOW - I just love Johnston horses and Greg Fairley takes the ride on MAgic Omen who has had 3 2nds in maiden company and is now favourite, albeit at 4/1 ,in his handicap debut. Concern that a lot of horses are shortening in this race. Over evens to place signals that this is competitive. SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST 310 WARWICK - Golden Shine, if we believe the market, is related to Pegasus the flying horse and will win with the jockey sipping a cocktail and reading the Times. Positives? Group 1 Phoenix stakes entry provisional 2nd favourite is a non runner "difficult to see past" Negatives soft ground and this 2 year old is expected to replicate sole run on different ground. I would love to place back this horse and put it up at 1.04 because , probability wise, this is outstanding , not getting beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race ,when you are 1/8 and next best in 10/1. Concern is the soft ground today but this has not been negatively reflected in the betting market 355 WINDSOR - With Christmas Carol a non runner, surely short head 2nd last time out Suited and Booted, a representative of The Hughes/ Hannon combo who are imperious this early flat season with their maiden entries, must have an outstanding chance of placing, having run recently in April. Concern with good to soft ground the only niggle as that short head 2nd came on the all weather. 1.26 to place 415 CURRAGH - Fame and Glory is an Irish Derby Winner who disappointed last time out on seasonal debut, but placed importantly. 2/5 now to get the winning thread back and 1.13 to place in this 2 place race. Question - was the under performance last time because of ring rustiness? Does it signal a decline? 420 DOWNROYAL - Jessies Dream is "impossible to look beyond " and "will win his beginners chase" -on only fall he was closing in and fell 2 out, but that is the single fall in 5 chase and hurdle races. 1.13 to place and a beginners chase but has been over chase fences and has Jason MAguire on board.

2/5

Strong football bets today in may must win matches. I will opt for the home team against the away sides today, so Real Madrid above Ajax today.
ONE A DAY - 6pm - Real Madrid v Osasuna -BACK REAL MADRID in the match odds at 1.12

I expect all of the shortlist of the shortlist bets to come in today and my horse racing alternative would be 450 SLIGO Deutscheland to place.


Bayern won as expected. For those with eyes open, there were 3 enhanced football trading bets - Leverkusen went a goal down - drew 1-1, Stuttgart went 2 goals down - drew 2-2 ( and saved the multiple) , Red Bull Satzburg went 1-0 down after 1 minute and won 4-1

FOOTBALL
1pm - Blackpool v Bristol City - 1.47 - Championship game and 6th placed versus 10th place
-won 6 and drawn 1 of their last 7 at home so a late surge Won 6 of their last 7 games - only losing to Newcastle United.
Only lost 4 at home all season, and lost 2-0 to Bristol City in head to heads.
Against teams 17th and above, Bristol have only won 1 game away , losing 7 and drawing 7 away

1pm - West Brom v Barnsley - 1.41 - strong home form versus poor recent total form - Barnsley have not won in their last 9, losing 5 and drawing 4. The problem is that West Brom have already been promoted but as probably the last home match for the Baggies, they won't want to lose it.

130pm - Breda v Twente -1.54 - tight enough at the head of the league to make this a must win for Twente- Breda at home have been strong against the top 4, 2 draws and a win.
Against the top 8, have only won 1 at home , drawing 3.
3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches at home but again we need really to focus on the performance against the top sides.
TWente's near perfect record has faltered away from home with losses to 2nd and 4th placed.HAve won all away matches against those 10th and below , but against the top 8 it is LDLDWDD.
The probability is that Twente will not lose, BUT this is a must win , and all must wins won yesterday.

130 pm - Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam - 1.25 - short price worth investigation - 8th v 16th ( of 18)
Groningen have only lost one of their last 9 home matches and won all 6 against the bottom 6 at home.
3 recent losses have all been away and against 2 of the top 3.
Have already beaten Sparta 4-2 this season.
Sparta have not won any of their last 10 matches.
Sparta's last away win came in 24th October 2009. HAve lost their last 4 away matches, conceding 3 or more on each occasion.

Price looks justified today but at this part of the season, can we trust those with no strong reason to win.

130pm - Liverpool v Chelsea - 1.81 - we saw with Barca at 1.61 ,when you need to win, you tend to find a way when a win is THE ONLY OPTION. This price for Chelsea might look big by 315pm.
A win for Liverpool takes them to 65 points, 2 below Spurs in 4th, and only those scousers with glasses half full will still hold out hope for 4th place with games running out.
Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 10 at home and against top 4 have won 2 matches 2-0 and lost to the Arse 2-1.
In the group of teams 4th to 8th ( remember Liverpool are 7th) Chelsea have lost 2-1 in ALL away matches - coincidence? Yes they have the ability to score, but not to score a 2nd and win/draw

130pm - NEC Nijmegen v Ajax - 1.16 - when all else fails, go to Ajax - one point below Twente ( who have a potential tricky away match ), a win here really puts the pressure on.
NEC hav not beaten any of the top 8 at home, losing 4 and drawing 3.
NEC have not won any of their last 4 home games, drawing 2 and losing 2 - the 2 draws were 0-0 v AZ and Feyenoord, 4th and 5th

Ajax have won their last 14, and are unbeaten in their last 17 .
Ajax have won their last 5 away .They have lost their only 3 matches away this season, but such is the form at present,, you would suspect the 1.16 will show goals.
HAve beaten all teams 11th and lower away from home ( NEC are 12th)

2pm - Sampdoria v Livorno - 1.12 - eyecatching price - why so low?
SAmp are 4th and Livorno are bottom and down it could seem
Unbeaten at home all season, this, I suppose is the reason!! Samp, I suspect still need points if only to shore up 4th place.
Livorno beat samp 3-1 at Livorno in December 2009 - interesting! Have won 2 and drawn 2 and lost the rest away all season.

3pm - Eth Pireaus v Ilioupolis - 1.09 - I cannot see, from the form, why the price is so short for the home side.

3pm - FC Basel v Bellinzona - 1.13 - caution always with these 10 team leagues
Have only lost at home against Grasshoppers. Have scored 5,3,4,4 in their last 4 home matches which ties in with the sub 1.2 odds
Have beaten away side 2-0 already this season.
Bellinzona have lost all away matches this season
Their last 3 wins have come in their last match, then 7 losses, then a home win, then 6 losses
THe form tells us the odds are right here.

4pm - Sunderland v Manchester United - 1.41 - this will be a stronger bet if Chelsea beat Liverpool as it really will be a MUST MUST WIN , and old red nose will make sure of that.
Mid table mediocrity for Sunderland - they can't really go anywhere with a win.
Sunderland at home have a very suprisingly good home record, only losing to Chelsea and Aston Villa.
Add to that 2-2 head to heads, and this becomes a tricky away fixture.
Sunderland have won their last 4, scoring 2,3,3,4 and are unbeaten in their last 9 home matches.
5 away losses and 3 draws away are where the points have been lost for United this season.
90th minute SCholes goal last away win is hardly compelling away form, neither was the 0-0 against Blackburn. I suspect this might be a " one goal in it" match this afternoon.

6pm - REal Madrid v Osasuna - 1.12 - another must win joins " must win Sunday" -with Barca winning yesterday in a match Real would have marked out as a possible tricky match for Barca .
4 points behind Barca, so must win to keep the pressure up to the end of the season.
WOn all at home bar Barca game.
Osasuna away have lost to all of the top 4 but performed well at home v the top 2 with 2 draws

Osasuna have lost their last 6 matches.

The goals will flow with Higuan and Ronaldo

745pm - Lazio v Inter 1.45 - I prefer singling out Inter Milan at home.Game in hand for Inter and guess what - MUST WIN.
Will go top with a win today.
Lazio are a lowly 16th in the league and safe from relegation - nothing to play for versus everything to play for - this could be the double for the Special One

Inter's away form is littered with draws which is a slight concern so if I were to back them at 1.45, then I would trade given that propensity to draw.

Look at Inter's last few away matches - DLDLWDDD - terrible propensity to draw.

815pm - Braga v Pacos Ferreira - 1.31 - are 6 points behind Benfica so another must win if they want to keep the pressure on and hope Benfica slip up

Braga have won all at home bar a solitary 0-0.

Against top 10, have only won 1 away have Pacos, lost 5 and drawn 2
Probability is for Braga not to lose

HORSE RACING
220 SALISBURY -
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Gramercy, 7/2 Dafeef, 4/1 Dubai Set, 7/1 Hunting Tartan, 10/1 Secret Queen, Side Glance, 12/1 Waveband, 14/1 Gunner Lindley, 20/1 Treadwell, 25/1 Kurtanella.

DIOMED VERDICT: The progressive GRAMERCY made an encouraging return in a traditionally hot Newbry handicap and can build on that promise.

Dafeef has really come in for support today into 15/8 and importantly is a Durcan/ Godolphin horse ( 2 times now has money come for a Durcan ridden horse and it has won)

240 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sariska, 2/1 Strawberrydaiquiri, 7/2 Spacious, 11/1 Moonlife, 20/1 Annabelle´s Charm, Chantilly Tiffany, Three Moons, 33/1 Honimiere, Plaisterer, 66/1 Badiat Alzaman.

DIOMED VERDICT: Sariska is undoubtedly a top-notch filly but she could be vulnerable down at this trip unless the ground has softened dramatically. There should be plenty more to come this year from STRAWBERRYDAIQUIRI and her stable has won the last three runnings of this.

Sariska is a non runner - surely Strawberry has a better chance to place now? - not run since October 2009 ( we saw with St Nicholas Abbey that the absence may be a factor)

255 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 The Sydney Arms, 5/1 Dingle View, 6/1 Little Libretto, 7/1 Silca Conegliano, 15/2 Shewalksinbeauty, 12/1 Rosina Grey.

DIOMED VERDICT: Richard Hannon juveniles can do little wrong and THE SYDNEY ARMS, who is better than the bare form of her Windsor debut win, has good prospects of giving the stable a fifth win in this race in nine years. Little Libretto may give her most to do.

The Sydney Arms is a Hannon horse, a recent winner, and now odds on price gapper. Expect a bold bid but only 2 places

315 SLIGO
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Flat Out, 11/2 Holyrood, 6/1 Tin Town Boy, 12/1 Mick The Tooth, 14/1 Shiyrman, 33/1 Barna Gold, Black Rock Lake, Didn´t He Do Well, Gentle Jim, Knockbaun Prince, Rendezvous Bay, Stoneman, Thats Our Luck.

1/5 now and the Mullins/Mullins partnership at Punchestown showed how devastating it could be.

450 SLIGO
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Deutschland, 5/2 Head Of The Posse, 9/2 Awkward Moment, 5/1 Maca Rince, 10/1 Acriveen, 16/1 Loggan Lass, 40/1 Short Grass, 50/1 Away Up North.

Townend/Mullins Deutscheland is interesting in this 8 runner race where only 4 are under 20/1 and 5 are under 50/1

505 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Principal Role, 5/2 Marie De Medici, 11/2 Mudaaraah, 9/1 Gallic Star, 20/1 Totally Ours, 25/1 Miss Starlight, Red Fantasy, 50/1 Serafina´s Flight.

DIOMED VERDICT: PRINCIPAL ROLE brings plenty of promise and her third in the Nell Gwyn is up there with the best form of the more-experienced Marie De Medici.

"huge shout" for Principal Role on recent flat form

SHORTLIST
130pm - NEC v Ajax - 1.16 - MUST WIN and have beaten all those in NEC's part of the league away from home.
3pm - FC Basel v Bellinzona - 1.12 - price looks justified here but leagues of only 10 teams is a slight concern
6pm - Real Madrid v Osasuna - 1.12 - beaten only by Barca at home, and MUST WIN - ideally would want to see Higuan and Ronaldo
745pm - Lazio v Inter Milan - MUST WIN for Inter Milan and the Special One should ensure - probably safer to lay Lazio given Inter's propensity to draw away.

240 NEWMARKET - Strawberrydaiquiri was originally one of 3 under 11/1 in the betting forecast, and shared favouratism pretty much with Sariska who now becomes a non runner. Surely a great opportunuty to place here. Not run since October 2009 1.38 to place

315 SLIGO - Flat Out has been battered into 1/5 and should be justified as a Mullins horse 1.09 to place

450 SLIGO - Deutscheland looks well placed to, erm, place here in this good probability race - 1.14 to place

With these Irish races, of course, we have to assume both horses have a clear round

505 NEWMARKET - a very interesting 8 runner race with only 3 under 16/1 and Principal Role a strong 6/4 favourite with solid recent form - listed race means it's competitive
1.23 to place

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
130pm NEC v Ajax - 1.16 - yes Ajax WILL fall short some time in the near future - but this is a MUST WIN MATCH if they want to take advantage of any possible slip by by Twente away to Breda this afternoon. Suarez MUST PLAY and I suspect will play as I have heard nothing to the contrary
6pm - Real Madrid v Osasuna - 1.12 - MUST WIN like the Ajax match and with rock solid home form and Higuan and Ronaldo scoring for fun, they should win. These 2 must play. Osasuna have not beaten any of the top 5 away from home.
450 SLIGO - I think Deutscheland has a great chance of placing today in an 8 runner race where only 4 are under 16/1
Townend and Mullins are a solid pairing - caveat as ever - the horse has to complete
505 NEWMARKET - Principal Role is in another good looking probability race - 8 runners and 3 places and a good recent run. 1.24 to place

MULTIPLE

7 Selections Chosen
1	NEC Nijmegen v Ajax (Laying NEC Nijmegen @ 36.71)
2	Groningen v Sparta Rott (Laying Sparta Rotterdam @ 19.66)
3	Sampdoria v Livorno (Laying Livorno @ 50.66)
4	FC Basel v Bellinzona (Laying Bellinzona @ 154.97)
5	Sunderland v Man Utd (Laying Sunderland @ 10.64)
6	Real Madrid v Osasuna (Backing Real Madrid @ 1.09)
7	Lazio v Inter (Laying Lazio @ 12.37)

7-Folds
	Selections	Odds*	Stake	Potential win
	1,2,3,4,5,6 and 7	1.46	£100.00	£46.00

1/5

ONE A DAY - 230pm BAYERN MUNICH V BOCHUM - BACK BAYERN MUNICH IN THE MATCH ODDS AT 1.11 (under B.Munich on the coupon) Not the best odds in the world but I have found compelling evidence for this being the best bet of the day ( read the shortlist of the shortlist)

The multiple is interesting enough but Notts County is the potential problem as they have nothing to play for.
The 2 horse races look interesting but one is in the ultra competitive 2000 guineas , and Wigmore Hall is in a 2 the place race, but still looks the best horse in that field




Rapid Vienna had something for everyone yesterday - the trader could have got out at 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-2 .The traditional bettor would have filled the swear box as it was 3-3 in the 91st minute. Final score 5-3.

FOOTBALL
A tricky day today as the Premiership relegation battle is wrapped up so those in mid table mediocrity out of any UEFA/Europa places have nothing to play for, and those relegated have ended their season early.

1245 - Birmingham v Burnley - 1.61 - typical of what I just mentioned above. Birmingham are so far behind the team ahead of them in points that it's playing for home pride today against relegated Burnley.
Brum at home have been exceptional. Unbeaten in their last 14 home games, and they have entertained the big boys who left with little more than a point. 4 draws in their last 4 home matches hint at a lay of Burnley here.
Burnley have only won one away from home all season.
Dilemma - nothing for either side to play for.

2pm- Dinamo Kiev v Zakarpattya - 1.09 - immediately signals goals from the home side

Home team Dynamo Kyiv have a home record of 12-1-0 (W-D-L) for their 13 home games this season, 37 points from a possible 39. That's a home points average of 2.85 compared to 2.41 for all games this season. Dynamo Kyiv's recent points average is 2.50, 15 points from 6 games 5-0-1 (W-D-L) Dynamo Kyiv's last 10 league games record reads DWDLWWWWWL (DWDLWWWWWL) while their last 10 home league games read WWWDWWWWWW (WDLWLWWWWW).

Away team Zakarpattya have an away record of 1-1-11 (W-D-L) for their 13 away games this season, 4 points from a possible 39. That's an away points average of 0.31 compared to 0.70 for all games this season. Zakarpattya's recent points average is 0.33, 2 points from games; Zakarpattya's last 10 league games record reads LWDWLLDDLL (LWDWLLDDLL) while their last 10 away league games read WLLLLLLDLL (WLLLLLLDLL).

Just like the Osnabruck game yesterday, which Osnabruck won convincingly - home and away form is very contrasting

This lot beat Kiev on the 24th March 1-0 so this must be factored in . Zakarpattya look like a pain in the arse for the big sides, losing only 1-0 to Shaktar who are similarly rated to Dinamo ( over 2000 compared to Zakar's 469)

Dinamo have beaten better rated sides recently quite convincingly at home, and Zakarpattya have kept it tight away from home, 1-0 loss, 1-0 loss , 0-0 draw, and 2-1 loss.AS already said one of those 1-0 losses was to Shaktar at 2322 in the ratings.

A messy game where I would have thought the 1.09 would signal a marked gap in quality.

230pm - Bayern Munich v Bochum - 1.12 - buzzing after reaching the Champions LEague Final, this may subconsciously affect the players' commitment to tackles - they would hate to get injured just prior to the biggest game of their lives.

Equal with Schalke at the top of the Bundesliga, this is still a match that means something to Bayern and is a must win.At home, Bayern have only lost one match , have drawn against all of the top 4, and won all other home matches bar an anomolous draw, and that loss to Stuttgart.

Beat Bochum 5-1 at their place and fairly trounce the bottom 3 sides home and away.

A real 7-0 mauling came against Hannover who are one place below Bochum. If in the mood, this sub 1.12 price should indicate the floodgates open up.

Must ideally see Robben and Ribery playing ( check the BAyern website and Betfair soccer forum for team news)

Risk over 3.5 goals to enhance the odds? It is tradeable if in running

230pm - Leverkusen v H Berlin - 1.35 - a win could take them temporarily 3rd but Leverkusen seem out of the title hunt with few games left to play.

Playing bottom side today hence the automatic short odds.

Since 7th March, Leverkusen have imploded with 5 losses and a draw in 8 games - this has ended the title that seemed theirs on the 6th March!

How trustworthy are a team that seem to have lost form?

A recent 3-0 home win against 2nd from bottom Hannover does augur well for their performances against the bottom basement side I suppose.

4 wins, 2 losses and a draw for Hertha Berlin in their last 7 away matches signals a comeback, but all too late alas. Against the top 5, though ,they have lost all away matches

230pm - Stuttgart v Mainz - 1.34 - with 3rd place only 4 points away at start of play, Stuttgart have an outside chance of an automatic European spot if they keep winning and hope results go against them. 7 wins, 3 draws and a single loss in their last 10 home matches. Winning sequence of 4 currently at home

On a 6 game winning run - this really is a typical end of season CHARRRRRGGGGEEE by Stuttgart. Priced to continue today too at home.

1-1 draw with Mainz in head to heads.Mainz have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 away matches. THe 2 losses were 1-0 so if they score first, there may be trouble today?

MAinz are easily beateable by the top 4 away, but then in Stuttgart's part of the table it's either a draw or a 1-0 win.

Mainz are difficult to read, showing no real pattern re the goals scored ,conceded - one week it's a 1-0 win, next a 3-3 draw, or a 2-0 loss.

I suspect the greater urgency, and momentum, is with Stuttgart.

3pm - Notts County v Cheltenham - 1.35 - with promotion secured, this is one for the fans today and I suspect County won't lose. Could be worth including Cheltenham in a multiple as a lay? THis is one of those dilemma matches though. Nothing to play for with Cheltenham it would seem safe from relegation.

3pm - Tottenham v Bolton - 1.27 - touted as THE form team in the Premiership ,the Spuds have a game in hand over Villa for 4th spot, and a point in hand over City who have a tricky old encounter v Villa this afternoon. Bolton are safe from harm . Spuds are unbeaten in their last 10 at home, and have won their last 5 at home, scoring a minimum of 2 goals in each match.

They beat Arsenal and Chelsea in their last 2 home matches, and with Aaron Lennon fit, and Gareth Bale firing, they should give Bolton a torrid time this afternoon. MUST WIN versus season over.

Bolton have lost away to all of the top 8 so this augurs well. 2-2 in head to heads could signal goals and over 1.5 goals is a ready option which includes both sides.

Held Chelsea to 1-0 win at Chelsea recently, so could be a pain today? I would argue, though, that Spurs are in better form than Chelsea if recent form is accounted for.

5pm - REd Bull Satzburg v FC Wiener Neustadt - 1.25 - top of the 10 man Austrian league and you saw yesterday how precarious these small leagues can be!

Red Bull are unbeaten since the 17th October 2009 - they certainly do have wings.

Only one aberation at home was a 1-0 draw against 2nd side . LAst met Wiener Neustadt away last year and a 3-2 win. So, like Rapid Vienna yesterday, I expect Red Bull to lead at some stage , where I would consider trading .

Red Bull are on a 2 game draw sequence which they are priced to end this afternoon.

Wiener only lost 1-0 to Austria Wien but 3-0 to Rapid Wien - hopefully the latter can be replicated this afternoon.

6pm - Crvena Zvezda v Cukaricki - 1.15 - home team are better known as red star belgrade - I have followed them recently so this sub 1.2 is worth investigating

Home team Red Star have a home record of 11-0-2 (W-D-L) for their 13 home games this season, 33 points from a possible 39. That's a home points average of 2.54 compared to 2.50 for all games this season. Red Star's recent points average is 2.17, 13 points from 6 games 4-1-1 (W-D-L) Red Star's last 10 league games record reads WWLWWWWDLW (WLWWWWWDLW) while their last 10 home league games read WWLWWWWWWL (WLWWWWWWWL).

Away team Cukaricki have an away record of 2-1-10 (W-D-L) for their 13 away games this season, 7 points from a possible 39. That's an away points average of 0.54 compared to 0.96 for all games this season. Cukaricki's recent points average is 1.67, 10 points from games; Cukaricki's last 10 league games record reads WLLWLWLWWD (WLLWLWLWWD) while their last 10 away league games read WLLLDLLLLW (WLLLDLLLLW).

I was very happy that I swerved Red Star in their last match against Javor, having noted that in head to heads JAvor certainly had a hold on them. Javor won 1-0!!

Red Star have the advantage in head to heads today with a 3-0 away win in their last meeting.

Ratings 2055 v 690 - Red star recently beat a 693 rated side 4-1 at home. This ties in with the sub 1.2 price and I expect there to be no problems against Cukaricki. Javor just seemed to be one of those bogey teams .

6pm - Fenerbahce v Eskisehirspor - 1.29 - I love checking out must wins when a team is priced to win, especially at this critical part of the season throughout Europe.

Fener are only a point ahead of Bursaspor for the title so a home game must be seen as a win only option.

Like Stuttgart, Fener have the momentum at the right time of the season, unbeaten in their last 8 and a winning sequence of 6 currently

CAution though - they may have the winning thread but 3 1-0's in their last 4 home matches signal that a trade would be advised if backing Fener and they lead at any stage.

Lost 2-1 to Eski in head to heads.Eski have lost their last 3 away, and tend to struggle against the top 6 away, losing 3 and drawing 2.Strangely they beat all of the top 3 at home, but contrasting form away

9pm - Villareal v FC Barcelona - 1.61 - rarely do you get a chance to back Barca at anything approaching these odds.

Must win for Barca as Madrid are only a point behind.

One loss away all season , infact, one loss all season period for Barca. Drew 1-1 with Villareal at the Nou camp.

2 draws, a loss and 3 wins in their last 6 show a vulnerability away recently and hence the 1.6 odds. Villareal have won their last 6 at home - their 2-0 loss to REal Madrid signals what Barca should be capable of.

Put this into context too - NO champions league final this year makes the title a must have. Extra incentive?

HORSE RACING

305 NEWMARKET

BETTING FORECAST: Evs St Nicholas Abbey, 7/1 Elusive Pimpernel, 9/1 Canford Cliffs, 10/1 Awzaan, 12/1 Fencing Master, 20/1 Al Zir, Dick Turpin, Inler, Xtension, 28/1 Makfi, 33/1 Hearts Of Fire, 40/1 Viscount Nelson, 66/1 Fair Trade, 100/1 Buzzword, Elspeth´s Boy, Lord Zenith, Red Jazz, 200/1 Audacity Of Hope, Greyfriarschorista.

DIOMED VERDICT: Hard to oppose ST NICHOLAS ABBEY, who looked such a fine prospect when slamming Elusive Pimpernel and Al Zir in the Racing Post Trophy. Stable-companion Fencing Master, who only just failed when short on experience in the Dewhurst, can follow him home.

The 2000 guineas and a huge price gapper in St Nicholas Abbey who comes from the BAllydoyle stable who have won this event numerous times. Naturally with all of the big boys they have an absence to overcome, but surely they will be as fit as flees.

Awzaan is the buzz horse from the Johnston yard and a lot is expected -a fine each way proposition?

350 UTTOXETER

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Zakatal, 7/2 Hilfiger, 5/1 Soccerjackpot, 8/1 Isario, Lion On The Prowl, 10/1 Calypso Bay, 12/1 Hypnotic Gaze, 20/1 Milandale, 33/1 Wizaller, 40/1 Nodanawink, 100/1 Aughcarra, Kashubian Quest.

DIOMED VERDICT: Hilfiger and ZAKATAL can both improve on very promising recent efforts.

If Lion on the Prowl can jump, he should place having shown consistency in bumpers, and Zakatal is the other market interest for Johnson/Hobbs

400 GOODWOOD

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Aspectoflove, 9/4 Shamwari Lodge, 4/1 Super Sleuth, 10/1 Hafawa, 14/1 Ahla Wasahl, 16/1 Please Sing, Tropical Paradise, 20/1 Carcinetto, 25/1 All Annalena, First City, 50/1 Victoria Sponge.

DIOMED VERDICT: Preference is for ASPECTOFLOVE (nap), who put up a very good effort in a Group 3 in Dubai last time.

3 horses are pretty much 5/2 here - the mover is Super Sleuth. Godolphin and Ted Durcan on ASpectoflove could continue the solid form of Godolphin from the back end of last flat season?

450 NEWMARKET

BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Wigmore Hall, 4/1 Anhar, 5/1 Rashaad, 8/1 Namecheck, 16/1 Gardening Leave.

DIOMED VERDICT: Rashaad and Anhar looked promising in their limited 2yo campaigns but WIGMORE HALL was very impressive in registering last month's C&D win.

Price gapper in such a small field must be accounted for. Impressive winner over course and distance latest. Frank Spencer has ridden him on all 4 occasions which should signal familiarity. Anhar I would see as an automatic danger from Godolphin

540 GOODWOOD

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Eltheeb, 4/1 Pastello, 9/2 Until The Man, 5/1 Buona Sarah, 13/2 Miniyamba, 10/1 Milnagavie, Rigid, 20/1 Flyinflyout.

DIOMED VERDICT: With some potential improvers lurking, the betting should be informative. Well-bred ELTHEEB showed enough on his final 2yo run to earn the vote, especially as there must be a good chance he can do better again upped in trip on this handicap debut.

Ted Durcan takes the ride on Eltheeb, interesting because it is " all red" being backed consistently now into 2/1in this 8 runner, 3 places handicap - the last all red with Durcan onboard won his last 2 races. Absence to overcome is a concern as ever, but jockey certainly isn't.

550 HEXHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Along The Nile, 9/4 The Duke´s Speech, 6/1 Wee Forbees, 8/1 Prioryjo, Woody Valentine, 14/1 Marlborough Sound, 33/1 Qaasi, 66/1 Linda´s Theatre.

DIOMED VERDICT: THE DUKE'S SPEECH drops considerably in grade, goes well fresh, has a good chance at the weights and is taken to beat Along The Nile.

8 down to 7 runners and still 3 places so a good chance for Along the Nile and The Duke's Speech to dominate? 2 are 25/1 or bigger reducing the field further

635 KILBEGGAN

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Headford Flyer, 11/4 Wise Oscar, 13/2 Little Rensnest, 7/1 Queen Of Cool, 10/1 Tenzing, 12/1 Kilteelagh´s Fancy, 14/1 Five Jembs, Lady Benmear, 16/1 Baby´s Hot, 20/1 Dr Roselier, Medellin, The Occupier, Trend Topper, 25/1 Whos Your One, 33/1 Maggies Girl, Scragane Bay,

Maiden hurdle but the fav is now 10/11 in places - quite a move considering there's 6 hours til race time

715 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Meezaan, 9/4 Citrus Star, 6/1 Rodrigo De Torres, 8/1 Below Zero, 16/1 Exceedingly Bold, Taste The Victory.

DIOMED VERDICT: MEEZAAN could hardly have been more impressive at Newbury in what looked a very competitive handicap and this St James's Palace entry can go in again.

That important recent run for Meezaan was very impressive and may swing things in this one's favour - only 2 places but opposition include one at 25/1 and one at 10/1

830 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Grand Zouki, 6/4 Thyne For Deploy, 7/2 Inner Steel, 10/1 Little Wizard, 33/1 Sambelucky, 66/1 Flapjack Crumbly, Mujada, Snap Decision, 100/1 Betty´s Run, Birnies Boy.

DIOMED VERDICT: Previous winners Grand Zouki and Thyne For Deploy are sure to go well but preference is for point scorer INNER STEEL, who is bred to relish this trip and is a rare runner at this track for his stable.

Only 5 under 66/1 should be the ones to focus on here, making this an interesting probability race - 3 places and 5 who should compete . GRand Zouki may be my knee jerk selection. The jockey on Thyne is a 7 lb claimer but has , it must be said, ridden the same horse to victory last time

SHORTLIST
230 pm - Bayern Munich v Bochum -1.12 - a must win for Bayern Munich against a side they have already spanked this season. Their 7-0 drubbing of Hannover shows that they can justify sub 1.2 odds with goals. 2 wins and Bayern are champions. Bochum have just dismissed their head coach so this is an ideal time.
LAst home match today as well this season "
As well as entertainment in the shape of goals, the crowd will demand a win too. Bayern have only ever lost four final home fixtures of the season"
Looks like a great one a day candidate with all of these factors coming together at one time
I cannot fund any team news at the Bayern website just yet. Ideally I want to see Robben playing

3pm - Tottenham v Bolton - 1.28 - another must win game and Spurs are unbeaten in their last 10 at home, winning their last 5 and taking notable scalps in their last 2. MUST WIN to consolidate 4th spot

5pm - Red Bull Satzburg v FC Wiener Neustadt - 1.25 - in running this match and I suspect Red Bull will lead at some stage to allow trading .

6pm - Crvena Zvezda v Cukaricki - 1.15 - time perhaps to trust Red Star at home today.

305 NEWMARKET - when a horse like St Nicholas Abbey is such a huge price gapper in the 2000 guineas of all races, then he must be something special
St Nicholas Abbey : Raced only at 1m last year when unbeaten in three starts, showing an electrifying turn of speed off a steady pace to make some smart opposition, headed by Elusive Pimpernel, look small beer in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster in October; tackling somespeedier types here and yet to record a high timefigure but looks an outstanding prospect for yard that has won this five times in the last 12 years.

Competitive nature of this race and its 19 runners does not make this a gimme!1.45 to place tells you it is no gimme either.
" hard to oppose" are trigger words I look for. FAith in the price gap might be rewarded with a bigger price today?

450 NEWMARKET - regular followers know I am less than enamoured with hold up merchant Frank Spencer, but he seems to be on the best horse in the race here in Wigmore Hall
" He looked every inch a Pattern-class performer in the making here, although even a stiff rise in the weights will leave him interesting for another handicap, with a race such as the London Gold Cup at Newbury on Lockinge day looking a suitable target." is the analysis of his last race. Not extended so should have more to offer. A price gapper in a small field - only 2 places is the negative.

540 GOODWOOD - Eltheeb is not my conventional one a day selection but when the money is down and Ted Durcan is employed, I can assume they mean business. 8 runners and 3 places

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

MULTIPLES

5 Selections Chosen
1	Stuttgart v Mainz (Laying Mainz @ 13.63)
2	B Munich v Bochum (Backing B Munich @ 1.08)
3	Notts Co v Cheltenham (Laying Cheltenham @ 11.27)
4	Tottenham v Bolton (Laying Bolton @ 18.27)
5	Red Bull Salzburg v FC Wiener Neustadt (Laying FC Wiener Neustadt @ 22.15)

5-Folds
	Selections	Odds*	Stake	Potential win
	1,2,3,4 and 5	1.42	£100.00	£42.00

Slight risk today with Notts County who have nothing to play for but I am hoping for a positive celebratory performance infront of fans

230pm - Bayern looks rock solid at 1.12 today. The only negatives? Bochum's need for points to stave off relegation and subconscious need to avoid injuries with Champions LEague Final near but here are the positives

1. last home match in a sell out arena for Bayern
2. equal with Schalke at head of league - must win when expected to win - must win their last 2 matches to guarantee the title - one is home and one is away
   
3. have not lost a final game of the season at home
4. 7-0 v Hannover shows what should be capable now - Bochum only a place below them
   
5. Head to heads -5-1 win at Bochum
6. Bochum have just sacked their manager

305 NEWMARKET - St Nicholas Abbey looks special and is priced as a special horse. If you chance him today, then 1.45 is a good return. I will not though given the inherent competitiveness of a 2000 guineas 19 runner field.