31/5

No football of interest today alas, wjhich leaves a thoroughly niggly Monday which will repay those who like speculating, particularly on the 2 the place chase races

The shortlist of the shortlist puts up Mhilu and the 355 Cartmel as an outstanding probability race. I cannot put the latter up as it is a beginners chase race and the majority of these horses have not run over chase fences

Mhilu, while only 2 the place , is compelling for the fact that his betting forecast price is now battered into 4/11 - only 2 miles on good ground so not a slog and short enough that we can hope he will have a clear round.

I am willing to take a chance here personally - but those with discipline whill see 2 places and a jumps race and stay away


***** ONE A DAY - 250 TOWCESTER - Mhilu to place only - I hope the 1.12 will remain and I hope I will not be punished for involvement in a 2 the place claiming hurdle. The comelling evidence comes from the betting forecast price battered into 4/11
I hope this ends the month on a winning note. *****




Job done with Bunce yesterday.
England was a great enhanced bet as Japan took the lead. I laid Japan at 3.75 on this occasion and hoped for at least a draw and Eng-er-land obliged

Brief message today as I am in transit and cannot write the message at the ideal time when the markets are fully formed

As I write it is 930am and the markets are not even showing all early prices. I hope if I get to my destination at time that I can update.

The day begins with a 2 yr old seller, then a 4 runner maiden, then a novices hurdle - typical Monday then!!

220 CARLISLE

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Defence Council, 2/1 Honeymead, 8/1 Ad Value, 10/1 Shy Bird, 12/1 Mr Khan, 16/1 Golden Blaze, 33/1 Indian Giver.

DIOMED VERDICT: Newcomer HONEYMEAD is just preferred to Defence Council.

The early markets make this a 2 horse race, with 2 under 14/1 in the betting.
BUT this is a 7 runner, 2 places, 5 furlong, 5 debutant ( from 7) maiden.
Defence Council has the form, albeit one run

235 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Tubby Isaacs, 9/2 Phantom Whisper, Rocker, 13/2 Alfresco, 7/1 Even Bolder, Kyllachy Storm, 12/1 Barons Spy, 16/1 Vintage, 20/1 Cornus.

DIOMED VERDICT: TUBBY ISAACS has gone from strength to strength and although this is his first try on a downhill track it's reasonable to hope he still has more to offer. Tubby Isaacs has won 4 of his last 6 races so is obviously in the groove. Hint of support into 15/8, 2/1 generally to continue th form. BUT 2 win sequence, and winning sequences will end eventually, but the question is whether he places if he does not win. 245 CARTMEL BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Beidh Tine Anseo, 100/30 Classic Contours, 4/1 Andhaar, 10/1 Master Fong, 14/1 Johnmanderville, Swiss Guard, 50/1 Takaatuf, 200/1 Markadam. DIOMED VERDICT: BEIDH TINE ANSEO escapes any penalty for his recent gains and should be able to maintain his winning run back in novice company. Andhaar looks a likely recruit to hurdling and can chase him home. Absolutely monumental "the whole family's on" gamble 2 runs ago came off for the favourite here and a price gapper with odds on status hints at confidence here again. CAmpbell Gillies has been on thehorse for his last 2 runs and last 2 winning runs! 250 TOWCESTER BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Mhilu, 4/1 Miss Nightshade, 5/1 A Dream Come True, 8/1 Nicky Nutjob, 14/1 Billy Beetroot. DIOMED VERDICT: The visor is a grey area but MHILU has a fair bit in hand on official ratings and knows how to win, which counts for a lot at this level. 8/11 betting forecast but 4/11 early market signals significant support and confidence in Mhilu - claiming hurdle and 2 places a niggle , but a certain AP McCoy onboard 305 CHEPSTOW BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Radio Wave, 11/4 Prince Of Dreams, 4/1 Donna Elvira, 5/1 Countess Comet, 10/1 High Ransom, Juwireya, 100/1 Ancient Greece, Jinksy Minx, Rumballina, 200/1 Superhoops. DIOMED VERDICT: RADIO WAVE is a promising filly with a top middle-distance pedigree and should get off the mark at the third time of asking. 315 LEICESTER BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Timocracy, 9/2 Major Pop, Pyrus Time, 13/2 Applaude, 8/1 Ravens Rose, 10/1 Red Smokey, 12/1 Guga, 20/1 Apurna, 40/1 Brasingaman Eric, 66/1 Annie Moyles, 100/1 Miss Isle Control, DIOMED VERDICT: TIMOCRACY is 2-2 since joining Andrew Haynes and again has the best chance at the weights. He looks the most solid option, assuming this race doesn't come too soon after his Brighton success on Friday. A class 6 seller screams out caution but Tim is a price gapper. 325 TOWCESTER BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Dreamy Sweeney, 3/1 Baren De Doc, 10/1 Gothic Charm, 16/1 Tuscany Star, 33/1 Harvey May, Wham Bang, 66/1 Thyne Spirit. DIOMED VERDICT: DREAMY SWEENEY hammered none other than last year's Cheltenham Festival winner Cappa Bleu in winning his Irish point and also showed considerable promise for this yard over hurdles. Beginners chase and 2 places - caution - McCoy fav and 4/7 here Progressive form for Radio Wave but only 2 runs in this maiden 355 CARTMEL BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Hearthstead Dream, Simarian, 9/2 Last Flight, 7/1 Indian Pipe Dream, Magical Legend, 14/1 Ballycolin, 25/1 Double Bank, 50/1 Young Yozza. DIOMED VERDICT: HEARTHSTEAD DREAM and Magical Legend are both coming to chasing a bit late in the day but their recent wellbeing, particularly that of the former, offers encouragement that they’ll go very close if taking to this discipline. Beginners chase the major niggle but this is turning out to be another excellent probability bet with 2 non runners and 2 horses at 16/1 and 50/1 who are priced no0t to be competitive. T5his therefore leaves, we can hope, just 4 horses vying for 3 places - default on the fav Hearthstead Dreams? Remember these are chasers with l plates on so we need to assume a clean round of jumping 435 TOWCESTER BETTING FORECAST: Evs Ruby Isabel, 11/10 Beauchamp Viking, 10/1 Saddlers Mount, 33/1 Simiola, Un Autre Espere. DIOMED VERDICT: Tim Vaughan should have a rough idea as to how he stands with Beauchamp Viking and RUBY ISABEL looks fairly handicapped anyway on her chasing debut, provided she fancies the challenge. The market makes this a match up between the front 2 but ifr remained disciplined of course, we ignore chases with 2 places ( albeit over 2 miles so less scope for a fall) 450 CHEPSTOW BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Scarcity, 5/1 Gundaroo, 13/2 Ramamara, 7/1 Mrs Mogg, 10/1 Oasis Jade, Sweet Pilgrim, 12/1 Chinese Democracy, 14/1 Miskin Nights, 20/1 Boragh Jamal, Kenyan Cat, 33/1 Joan´s Legacy. DIOMED VERDICT: SCARCITY needs the ground to remain on top but she won with plenty in hand when backed on her handicap debut at Yarmouth and surely has further races in her. Price gapper in this handicap and a winner last time out , Scarcity is expected to run very well again under a penalty 500 LEICESTER BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Christmas Carnival, 7/2 Lathaat, Veni Vedi Veci, 9/2 Dazzled, 8/1 Before The War, 14/1 Mazamorra, 28/1 Shut Up Shapiro, Weliketobouggie, 40/1 Eastern Magic. DIOMED VERDICT: CHRISTMAS CARNIVAL just about sets the standard on his close fourth to a subsequent winner at Newbury on his reappearance. Support for newcomer Dazzled would be significant. Christmas Carnival is a a progressive maiden and despite my concerns as a place backer than he has only managed one place in 3 outings, his most recent 4th saw him beaten only 1 3/4 lengths 3 are 33/1 or bigger and should reduce the competitive field to 6 , 3 of whom will place 600 BALLINROBE BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Snap Alam, 13/8 Super Say, 6/1 Majestic Pearl, 10/1 Maid Of The Castle, 12/1 The Silver Crown, 14/1 Rose Bed, 20/1 Farmleigh House, 33/1 One Grand One, Peccatorum, 50/1 Chevalier D´Or, Ebony Cat. Although we must be a little cautious in maidens at the lesser light irish tracks, the sight of Pat Smullen on a market leader does instil confidence (Snap Alam) SHORTLIST 245 CARTMEL - Beide Tine Anseo looks to be fancied again and if he attracts support, as he has successfully last twice, then we should remain optimistic of a good run? 250 TOWCESTER - Mhilu - the huge discrepancy between betting forecast and live market price is very telling here, but do we remain disciplined in these 2 the place claiming hurdles and leave them alone? -only 2 miles 355 CARTMEL - a superb probability bet for those who like speculating - 3 places and 6 runners but a 2 mile 5 furlong beginners chase - I would default on the favourite for no other reason than that is an easy way to make a decision without umming and ahhing. The sight of Brian Hughes in the saddle is a good one 500 LEICESTER - niggle re maiden status of this race and a couple of debutatns who could be anything but Christmas Carnival could be progressive - as with the bets today, they are either 2 the place hurdles and chase races, or maidens with debutants as rivals so a very niggly day SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST A very niggly day indeed with maidens abounding ( and some of these maidens contain debutants) , beginners chases, and 2 places, and we have our unwritten rule regarding beginners chases which will preclude some bets 250 TOWCESTER - Mhilu runs in a claiming hurdle with only 2 places but I always see extreme confidence when the ebtting forecaster's 8/11 is spanked into 4/11 now This perhaps negates the claiming and 2 the place niggles I have 1.12 to place , we must assume a clear round of jumping of course 355 CARTMEL -must be mentioned for these reasons 8 runners now down to 6 runners Betfair are still paying out on 3 places making this a 50/50 race one horse is 66/1 and can be ignored leaving 5 for 3 places one horse is 14/1 and although he cannot be strictly omitted from calculations, if he runs to his price this will be a 4 horse race for 3 places Niggles? Beginners chase - L plates on, and assumption of a clear round if getting involved. I would default to the market leader as the simplest way to decide who you will hope will finish , and finish in the first 3 in a 6 runner race

30/5

I must leave the friendlies alone despite national pride . I must also leave Seria B alone
for the Goodfellas and Wise guys to bet on today despite Cesena looking a great bet as a MUST WIN SIDE






***** 255 NEWMARKET - BUNCE TO PLACE ONLY 1.16 available*****







Ryan Moore's booking swings this in a race where 3 should be vying or the win

The shortlist of the shortlist has an element of speculation today ( I know some follow this part exclusively) - read the arguments and determine for yourself




Oh the perils of friendlies. I believe it was a 90th minute winner for Spain. I guess the goals bet was the winner here!

FOOTBALL

115pm - England v japan 1.27 - dare we? The boys were good against a Mexico side which did look a little uninterested.

2pm - Lecce v Sassuolo - 1.22 or the draw - yes folks - the end of Seria B and another game which might be a draw! What do you think?

2pm - Modena v Gallipolli - 1.04 home side - away side cannot go anywhere in this ultimately meaningless match

2pm - Piacenza v Cesena - 1.14 away - Cesena MUST WIN in order to keep the pressure on 1st and 2nd

2pm - REggina v Albinolefe - 1.04 home - looks like a fixed game? I cannot fathom the odds given the relative league positions

2pm - Salernitana v Vicenza - 1.1 away side - home side set adrift, but an away win is meaningless

HORSERACING
200 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Conflictofinterest, 6/1 Rimini, 10/1 Crimson Canyon, 14/1 Our Guardian Angel, 20/1 I Need A Hero, Nehemiah, 25/1 Saddlewood, 33/1 Western Palm, 40/1 Georgie´s Grey, 50/1 Keckerrockernixes, Out To Impress,

DIOMED VERDICT: Very hard indeed to see beyond CONFLICTOFINTEREST.

1/2 and a huge price gapper or the Nicholls yard. Not run since May 2009 " very hard indeed to see beyond"

210 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Rose Street, 7/4 Onemix, 10/1 Recurring Dream, Tuppenny Piece, 25/1 Farncombe, 50/1 Silver Sonnet, 100/1 Miss Markham, Nobel Play, Par Excellence, Poca A Poca.

DIOMED VERDICT: Her absence tempers enthusiasm to some degree but ROSE STREET was much the best of these on the Flat and made a pleasing enough start over hurdles at Musselburgh.

Only 4 under 33/1 here and Rose Street is all red, and strongly backed here

255 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Mujrayaat, 7/4 Bunce, 3/1 Swiss Dream, 20/1 Cold Secret, 33/1 Bridget The Fidget, 50/1 Sirens, 100/1 Blade Pirate, Jamaica Grande, Knudstrup Noble.

DIOMED VERDICT: It could be a case of third time lucky for BUNCE whose efforts in the frame at Leicester and Doncaster represent solid form.

3 horses priced 6/4, 6/4, 2/1 with 40/1 bar these

Bunce the selection or Hannon/ Ryan Moore ? 2 runs and looks solid place material.

415 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Age Of Aquarius, 7/2 Profound Beauty, 6/1 Haralan, 16/1 Loch Long, 25/1 Donegal, 33/1 Keep It Cool, 50/1 Caesar´s Song.

Listed race and heavy odds on. Close 2nd in recent run in May 2010. Ballydoyle horse - 3 horses only under 33/1 make this an excellent probability race

SHORTLIST

Take it or leave it with good old Seria B and some unfathomable prices ( 1.22 to draw - hmm!!)
The game I would take out of it , would be 2pm Piacenza v Cessena -1.14 away - Cesena must win , simple as that. Must wins tend to win.

We saw with Spain yesterday that experimentation would seem to be the name of the game rather than the win ( although thankfully Spain obliged)
England did look good against Mexico and home advantage, and a need to impress , and the inclusion of Chelsea squad players, should garner a win , and 1.26 is reasonable. The Spain result should sound a note of caution regardless of opposition when it is a friendly

200 FONTWELL - Conlict of interest is obvious here but the Racing Post show that he has not run since May 2009 ,but refer to "recent " chase form. HAve they put the wrong year in the form off May 2009?

1.16 to place augurs well here but I am confused that he has not run for a year?

210 UTTOXETER - a clear round and all red Rose street would seem to be primed to place here in a race whee only 4 are under 33/1 - niggle - only had the one hurdles run - 1.17 to place - also not run since December 2009

255 NEWMARKET - likely to be in the shortlist of the shortlist -3 maidens only under 33/1 here and Bunce , under Ryan Moore for Richard Hannon ( maiden king) looks to have a great chance - around 1.18 to place

415 LEOPADSTOWN - regardless of 2 places or not, an ultra short priced Ballydoyle entry commands considerable respect - "it will be a surpise if he is beaten" - only one of 3 under 33/1 here - 1.12 to place

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

England should beat Japan this afternoon with relative ease but the recent performances of rock solidish looking teams in friendlies means I reluctantly pass this one despite obvious appeal as we know a lot more about England, quite naturally, than, say, the state of Portugal's national side

Seria B is well dodgy. I think Fat Tony from the Simpsons will be getting involved today. As I say Cesena is the standout bet here and worth a shot as a MUST WIN ( they are 3rd and only a couple of points separate 1st from 3rd) - 1.14 represents a good bet for this away side
2pm - Piacenza v Cesena - 1.14 away

Please note that I have been unable to do a thorough analysis of this game to the standards you have got used to as www.soccerstats.com is not loading ( or it's new counterpart www.leagueday.com) so I have not been able to look at recent form, etc to the level I normally would to cover all angles.

It would seem the horse racing, therefore, is the place to focus on today. Which of the shortlist interests me today?

255 NEWMARKET - although maidens are difficult betting mediums, Bunce, for me , stands out as the one from the 3 market leaders under 33/1 - he has had 2 runs and the outstanding Ryan Moore booked. The market really cannot split the front 3 but puts Bunce marginal fav

1.16 to place

415 LEOPARDSTOWN - Age of Aquarius has had the recent run and as a Ballydoyle hot av, commands considerable respect. 1.12 to place in a race where only 3 are under 33/1 is interesting

Negatives - 2 places only means any sub par performance will be punished ( consider this is 7 runners and 2 places - 7 is the max. number o runners or 2 places so means we have more rivals than an 8 runner and 3 places race)




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NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

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30/5

Another simple 1.11 shot won, erm 3-2 with a 90th minute winner. The joy of friendlies

200 FONTWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Conflictofinterest, 6/1 Rimini, 10/1 Crimson Canyon, 14/1 Our Guardian Angel, 20/1 I Need A Hero, Nehemiah, 25/1 Saddlewood, 33/1 Western Palm, 40/1 Georgie´s Grey, 50/1 Keckerrockernixes, Out To Impress,

DIOMED VERDICT: Very hard indeed to see beyond CONFLICTOFINTEREST.

Massive price gapper to start the day - not run since 12th May 2009! Nicholls horse, but big absence

30/5

Another simple 1.11 shot won, erm 3-2 with a 90th minute winner. The joy of

29/5

With probability races, you simply take a chance on the probability playing out. Another opportunity today with the 155 Catterick which is another outstanding probability bet, which I cannot put up as it is a seller. Still, I expect New England to be competitive enough to finish in the 1st 3 in a 6 horse race.
Royal Exchange faces, on paper an easy task, but do read the caution part of my synopsis at the base of the message

This leaves Spain, and they are NOT Portugal, simples!!






***** ONE A DAY -5pm Spain v Saudi Arabia - back Spain in the match odds at 1.11******




Possible multiple

4 Selections Chosen
1	New Zealand v Serbia (Laying New Zealand @ 20.35)
2	Spain v Saudi Arabia (Backing Spain @ 1.08)
3	Iceland v Andorra (Laying Andorra @ 46.68)
4	Hungary v Germany (Laying Hungary @ 9.49)

4-Folds Selections Odds Stake Potential win 1,2,3 and 4 1.3 £100.00 £30.00 Bet references: 15061337

Total Backer's Stake:	£100.00
Your total potential win:	£30.00

The dodgy one might be the Germans given they are away from home and have a few injury concerns







840 Haydock 1st and 2nd favs filled the 1st 2 places for the best probability race of the day yesterday. I hope you profitted from it.

FOOTBALL
415pm - New Zealand v Serbia -1.32 - NZ put up some stern resistance in a friendly v Oz . I know little of the capabilities of Serbia making this a tricky bet
5pm - Iceland v Andorra -1.18 - Andorra's are opposable against my old Sunday League side.
5pm - Malta u21 v Ukraine u21 - 1.13 -Malta u21 seem to be out of their depth
5pm - Spain v Saudi Arabia - 1.11 - a strong Spain outfit are quite adept at killing the arabs. Do not expect a Portugeuse type can't be arsed performance for World Cup favourites ( and to be fair I did point out their poor form and Ronaldo's lack of goals during the qualifiers - a quite clear one a day candidate.

155 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Sir Boss, 7/2 New England, 11/2 Sea Land, 10/1 Kochanski, 14/1 Barbirolli, 25/1 Pitbull, 33/1 Without Equal, 50/1 Treetops Hotel.

DIOMED VERDICT: SIR BOSS is the one to be on at these weights.

2 non runners - one is the original fav. Surely near 2nd av New England can gain compensation and take advantage of Betfair's 3 the place market. 1.26 to place is very appealing
Note - this is a class 6 seller. 2 horses are 20/1 or bigger leaving a possible 4 horse race for 3 places

225 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Philosophers Stone, 4/1 Nabrina, Sharp Shoes, 6/1 Red Roar, 9/1 Mottley Crewe, 12/1 Loss Leader, 14/1 Lord Lansing, 25/1 Rio´s Girl.

DIOMED VERDICT: PHILOSOPHERS STONE has made a promising enough start and makes most appeal.

Of interest given that the fav's price is now odds on in places . One of only 4 under 14/1

A maiden race but has had 2 runs

410 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Royal Exchange, 6/1 Ballista, 7/1 Countrywide Flame, 12/1 Bussa, 20/1 Barkston Ash, 50/1 Love Club.

DIOMED VERDICT: ROYAL EXCHANGE only just lost out to a smart subsequent winner who is Coventry Stakes bound when a beaten favourite on his debut but should recover losses here. Ballista could be pick of the newcomers. I suppose there are exceptions to backing one time out 2 year olds and that is when said 2 year old is a Hannon/Hughes horses, 2/5 but now 1/4 on and a head 2nd on debut ( and a virtual winner running in a maiden) Fav last time and well backed, this looks straightforward ( hmmm, it is 5 furlongs , 2 places with 3 debutants) 510 CATTERICK BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Vaultage, 4/1 Royal Record, 10/1 Masteeat, 12/1 Zelos Spirit, 16/1 Dashing Beauty, 25/1 Best Known Secret, Royal Cheer, 33/1 Avonlini, 50/1 Ed´s A Red. DIOMED VERDICT: VAULTAGE boasts the form and experience to get the job done at this level. Retains odds on status here as one of only 2 under 10/1. Another maiden - has had 4 runs and progressing and down to class 6 from 5 530 NAVAN BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Carraiglawn, 11/4 Dance On By, 11/2 Takaliyda, 8/1 Prince Jock, 10/1 Dibella, 12/1 Lightening Stricks, Rocky Wednesday, 14/1 Dearest Girl, Sughera, 33/1 Mushagak, 50/1 Colyn, Myshar. Bolger/Manning on Carriglawn here deserves respect 830 STRATFORD BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Whataboutya, 7/2 Lady Myfanwy, 5/1 Mad Victor, 7/1 That Look, 10/1 Cannon Bridge, 14/1 Innocent Rebel, 16/1 Fruitfull Citizen, 20/1 Dumadic, Gentleman Anshan, Scotmail Too, 25/1 The General Lee, 33/1 Goldfinger. DIOMED VERDICT: Whataboutya has the edge on form but LADYMYFANWY, who knows how to win, is taken to land this race for the second year in a row. She comes here in great nick with three straight wins in points under her belt. Obviously the market thinks more about Mad Victor ( 15/8 fav) than the betting forecaster 910 CARTMEL BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Mountskip, 7/2 Saddlers´ Supreme, 10/1 Ardesia, Devils Delight, Knight Valliant, Pinewood Legend, 12/1 Temple Place, 14/1 Everaard, Royal Flynn, 16/1 Hernando Cortes, 20/1 Crystal Runner, 25/1 Danehill Silver, 50/1 The Sheepdipper. DIOMED VERDICT: Mountskip should make a bold bid to land his second victory in a week but he may be thwarted by SADDLERS' SUPREME who also looks attractively handicapped. Remember I mentioned this Mountskip on his last race ( he won). 11/4 here and " hard to beat" says Diomed. SHORTLIST 5pm - Iceland v Andorra - 1.18 - only just over a grand available on Betfair - should still be liquid. I do not know much about Iceland but I know Andorra , along with Leichtenstein et al are usually spanked. 1.18 over 1.5 goals involves both sides ( let's ace it if Andorra score, we are assured over 1.5 goals 5pm - Spain v Saudi Arabia - 1.11 - World Cup favs should not do a Pork and Cheese on us here and lay down a marker for the World Cup in 2 weeks time -in running and , this time at least, we should expect the 1.11 to signal goals. For those who ask why I haven't learned from the Portugal match, well Portugal were in bad form, found it tough in qualifying v Albania, and Ronaldo has not scored or them in 640 minutes. Spain are a lot different and have a far better class of player 155 CATTERICK - these probability races, like yesterday, you can either take a risk on, or leave alone. Here original fav is non runner, original 2nd fav New England is fav and there are 2 over 16/1 in this still 3 the place race. 1.26 really is enticing given the superb probability presented us by 2 non runners. A seller though!!! 410 HAYDOCK - Queen Liz's Royal Exchange looks like a winner already run in this maiden for the Hannon/Hughes partnership and despite the maiden status, 2 places, this looks a good enough opportunity 1.27 to win and 1.11 to place do factor in 2 year olds, 3 debutants, 5 furlongs and the fact the fav has only had one run

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

5pm Spain v Saudi Arabia - 1.11 - well the Pork and Cheese were perhaps not the shock I thought them to be.
A strong Spanish outfit should make mincemeat out of the Arabs.
For the more speculative, 1.11 usually signals 3-4 goal winning margin so goals bets are good, and halftime/fulltime Spain/Spain might be worth a go, BUT there is no real motivation to lead at half time

410 HAYDOCK - reputation or caution?
Reputation? - owned and bred by The Queen, Hannon/Hughes 2 year old, head 2nd on debut ( a winner , pretty much, running in a maiden)
Caution - 2 year old having only 2nd run , 3 debutants, only 2 places , and minimum distance 5 furlongs
I do suspect Royal Exchange will do the business today, but prefer the safer Spanish.









--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

28/5

Have a look at the shortlist yourself today ( not just the shortlist of the shortlist) and I hope you will agreee with me that the 2 maidens involve once raced 2 year olds expected to replicate form , sometimes against 7 debutants who could be anything. - Highly hopeful bets these

The 2 probability bets are outstanding, and if you have a betting itch to scratch, well then just take a chance and hope the selection you chose places .

The 840 HAYDOCK is my race of the day from a probability perspective, but some 8 hours to go and a lot can change. The 2 market leaders mentioned in the shortlist of the shortlist are the ones to bet.

***** ONE A DAY - NO BET DAY TODAY. I will try my very best to update the BLOG ONLY at 820pm IF I CAN. I am not in a position to promise this. The 840 Haydock is an outstanding place only race, which should involve 4 horses only for 3 places. The market nearer race time will reveal all.I hope you can understand my reticence here - none of the bets are outstanding, but by the same token, arguments can be made for backing and "hoping" and today looks to be a "hope day" rather than a "shock if it loses " day*****









I don't know what price Picaroon was at the off, but 1.09 was available when I wrote the blog, and he won accordingly.

6pm - Austrian Erste division - Hartberg v Admira Wacker - 1.36

Home team TSV Hartberg have a home record of 6-2-7 (W-D-L) for their 15 home games this season, 20 points from a possible 45. That's a home points average of 1.33 compared to 1.19 for all games this season. TSV Hartberg's recent points average is 1.67, 10 points from 6 games 3-1-2 (W-D-L) TSV Hartberg's last 10 league games record reads LLLWWLWWDL (LLLWWLWWDL) while their last 10 home league games read LLLWWDLWWD (LLLWWDLWWD).

Away team Admira Wacker have an away record of 9-3-3 (W-D-L) for their 15 away games this season, 30 points from a possible 45. That's an away points average of 2.00 compared to 2.00 for all games this season. Admira Wacker's recent points average is 2.50, 15 points from games; Admira Wacker's last 10 league games record reads WDWLLWWWWW (DDWLLWWWWW) while their last 10 away league games read WWWDWDDLWW (WWDWDDDLWW).

A home team who have lost more than they have won at home, against an away side who have superior form away with 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses

813 v 1724 in the ratings - a noticeable gap to the away side

Head to heads - 3-0 to Admira latest but 1-0 to Hartberg before that in 2009.

Have scored 8 and 4 in their last 2 away matches and one was against a 1069 rated side , so possibilities.

Last 4 home and away augur well for the home side with 2 wins, a draw and a loss -only 1-0 against 1658 rated opposition so showed fighting capabilities

6pm- RB Saltzburg Jrs v FC Wacker Innsbruck - 1.41

I have plundered Austrian Erste Division before using betdevil, so I will see if there are any standout arguments for backing any of these 2 today

Home team Salzburg 2 have a home record of 7-4-4 (W-D-L) for their 15 home games this season, 25 points from a possible 45. That's a home points average of 1.67 compared to 1.38 for all games this season. Salzburg 2's recent points average is 1.50, 9 points from 6 games 3-0-3 (W-D-L) Salzburg 2's last 10 league games record reads LWLWWWLWLL (LWLWWWLWLL) while their last 10 home league games read LDDWDWWWWL (LDDWDWWWWL).

Away teamWacker Inns have an away record of 7-4-4 (W-D-L) for their 15 away games this season, 25 points from a possible 45. That's an away points average of 1.67 compared to 2.06 for all games this season. Wacker Inns's recent points average is 2.17, 13 points from games; Wacker Inns's last 10 league games record reads WLWWLWDWWW (WLWWLWDWWW) while their last 10 away league games read DDWWDWLLDW (DDWWDWLLDW).

Nothing outstanding in the form
Tight in last 3 head to heads

HORSE RACING

210 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ahtoug, 9/2 Last Destination, 8/1 Eland Ally, Mysterious Bounty, Sophie´s Hero, 10/1 Anddante, 16/1 Dark Dune, 20/1 Wanchai Minx, 25/1 Green Pastures, Move In Time, Mr Shifter, 33/1 Aprication, Downtown Boy, Livinadream, 50/1 Kodicil, Roman Ruler.

DIOMED VERDICT: The betting should show what is expected from the newcomers but several have already shown reasonable form, most notably AHTOUG.

2nd fav is a non runner here and I do like Ted Durcan when he's on a market leader. Short head 2nd in a May maiden in class 5 ( argument that the horse is as near as damn it a winner)
Niggles - only run and expected to automatically reproduce ( and the horse is only a 2 year old)

330 NEWMARKET
ETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Mata Keranjang, 9/2 All Action, 10/1 Film Score, 14/1 Court Circle, Heart Of Hearts, Rio Tinto, 25/1 Aneel, Cotton Mill, Strophic, 50/1 Baibars, Telescopic, 66/1 Abu Wathab, Chief Wren.

DIOMED VERDICT: Down to maiden company for the first time, MATA KERANJANG sets a very high standard with solid Group and Listed form to his name and he looks well worth a try over this trip.

Price gapper here and only 2 horses under 14/1 here but it is All Action who has captured the support it would seem , into close 2nd and 9/4

Guess what - another maiden. Fav placed in last 4 starts prior to 13th of 15 in group company latest

340 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Aestival, 11/4 Four Kicks, 11/2 Noah Jameel, 10/1 Inquisitress, Kashmina, 12/1 Bere Davis, 14/1 Maximus Aurelius, 33/1 Shouldntbethere, Willie Ever.

DIOMED VERDICT: FOUR KICKS acts well over this proven C&D and remains on a likeable mark.

Odds on now in a class 6 0-60 based on a sole piece of form latest, prior to which the horse was terrible

440 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Spirit Is Needed, 4/1 Sherman McCoy, 9/2 Cool Strike, 6/1 Hevelius, Martyr, 9/1 Featherweight, 12/1 Far From Old, 66/1 Gold Ring.

DIOMED VERDICT: SPIRIT IS NEEDED, officially 3lb ahead of the handicapper, should have more to offer if avoiding a bounce. Martyr, only 2lb higher than when winning last year, and Cool Strike, weighted to reverse form with Sherman McCoy, may pose most problems.

Big mover this MArtyr, all red and sharing favouratism for Hannon and Ryan Moore - interesting

615 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Saponara, 6/4 Point Of Light, 7/2 Time Machine, 25/1 Mashaal, 33/1 Chipolini, Flying Bella.

3 horses under 25/1 the ones to fight out 2 places. If so, then the provisional favourite to place is a good probability bet?

710 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Rerouted, 5/1 Dortmund, 6/1 Arabian Star, Polar Kite, 8/1 Velvet Underground, 10/1 Mediplomat, 14/1 Newzflash, 16/1 Capaill Liath, 20/1 Bold Bidder, 25/1 Angle Knight, Captain Loui.

DIOMED VERDICT: REROUTED ran to a level of form at York that would have won this race several times before and he can make that experience tell.

3rd in a class 3 on his sole run, evidently this form "would have won this race several times before"
4/6 - - - - 8/1 price gap here and expected to automatically reproduce sole run against a field including 7 debutants ( 2nd 3rd and 4th in the betting are debutants) - this really is a gambler's race for the place.

735 CORK

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Bootlegger, 11/4 Mighty John McGee, 9/2 Paddy Curry, 8/1 Iron Duke, Road Train Bob, 16/1 Ben Of Fore, 20/1 Frankford, 25/1 Medellin, 33/1 Will She Be Sober.

5 horses under 33/1 and a probability case can be made for the excellent davy Russell on Bootlegger - again as with much of today, pure gamble rather than nailed on probability ( i.e. we hope this becomes a 5 horse race, and the fav remains competitive - this is IReland and that is an assumption requiring a lot of faith)

840 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Youm Jamil, 100/30 Blues Music, 4/1 Pedantic, Rule Breaker, 9/2 Glacial, 66/1 Piccolo Express, 100/1 Colamandis, Tender Appeal.

DIOMED VERDICT: YOUM JAMIL sets a decent standard and can get off the mark now back in trip.

Excellent probability race. The fav is a non runner, and there are only 4 horses under 50/1 here - we will assume these 4 will be the ones fighting out the finish and the places. Which of these 4 will NOT place? Default to new market leader Blues Music? He has form, but hang on there, the Royston Ffrench /Johnston Rule BReaker shares favouratism ( has only had one run, 3rd, but reputation of stable deserves respect)

845 DOWNROYAL

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Dawn To Dance, 3/1 Slade, 13/2 Rockymountainhigh, 8/1 Notgonnagiveup, 9/1 Bank On Black, 10/1 Ballydonnell Drive, 20/1 Dundrum Dancer, Musical Express, 25/1 Leveleo, 33/1 Joker Jack, Torthai Beachta, 50/1 Aharney, Ebony Cat, Kateeva, Redimir, 66/1 An Toglach, Apollo Springs.

Fran Berry is a jockey to follow this season as he has taken over from Eyebrows Kinane as the retained jockey for John Oxx - Dawn to dance is now odds on but this is a big field maiden and there are some competitive stables.

SHORTLIST

There are some likely types today but we enter, largely , the territory of highly speculative.

330 NEWMARKET - we have a lot of ultra shortpriced maidens who have only had the one run and are expected to automatically reproduce - some of these are 2 year olds -far too risky
Mata Keranjang has experience in far loftier company, and is up in trip by at least 2 furlongs. Frank Spencer ( negative /positive?) on board here and to add the the mix All Action who is the one for money and we have a race full of if only's -1.22 to place ( illiquid market)

Form is outstanding though

615 DOWNROYAL - Saponara a good probability place bet? 3 horses only under 40/1 and 2 places-firm ground a slight concern

710 HAYDOCK - I am taken by Spotlight's synopsis of Rerouted's last run's form - 4/6 and heavy confidence but 7 debutants in opposition and has only had one run as a 2 year old

840 HAYDOCK - only 7 runners now with the defection of original market leader. 4 horses only are under 50/1- this is an outstanding probability race here but none of the 4 can be readily discounted ( but if you're feeling lucky, punk, then chose one of the 4 market leaders and hope it finishes in the first 3 in a race seemingly about just 4 horses

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

I don't think there will be a one a day today as we are dealing with 2 probability races and 2 2 year olds who have only had one run and are automatically expected to replicate.
Far too much speculation today.
If push came to shove, what would I shortlist from the shortlist? Well the 840 HAYDOCK is the race -7 runners, 3 places on Betfair and only 4 horses under 50/1 - outstanding place only opportunity . At this early stage, I would have this between Rule BReaker ( the mighty Johnston table but again a sole run) and Blues Music ( original 2nd fav and 432 form is , on the face of it, naturally progressive)