9/12

I am left with 2 slow ground Wolverhampton races today and I am concerned that this slow ground results in anomolous results where normal standard ground would result in wins.

Ebraam looks a solid looking favourite and has the advantage of running in a 7 runner race now which still pays out 3 places - a 5 furlong class 6 claimer on standard to slow ground is not quite top of my list of must bet on races. 5 under 20/1 should help the probabilities for Ebraam. 1.21 is of some appeal but the race type is not.

Private joke is priced to win easily but the reports of his sole run are hardly gushing praise. If 2/7 here, his opponent's next career move is as dog food or glue. We can argue that D'artagnan is the value alternative here at around 1.59 to place in a thoroughly illiquid betting market. Private joke has had one run, and does not appeal.

D'artagnan has experience and 5 runs in South Africa. He will not have run on slow all weather surfaces in South Africa.

*****ONE A DAY - No bet for me today, but were I to have to have a bet, then I would chance D'artagnan to place at a nice price. Will this South African horse take to the surface and will the betting market be accurate in its assessment that this is a 2 horse race?*****

3-1 final score so Arsenal won and the over 2.5 goal trade was successful.

No football today. Wolverhampton is standard to slow and the last time I bet on this kind of going, a course and distance winner was unplaced despite winning at the venue the week before. The reason? Well it was the slow ground that scuppered said horse.

This is the concern with Wolverhampton today.

145 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Ebraam, 3/1 The Tatling, 7/2 Dancing Freddy, 7/1 Efistorm, 20/1 Avonvalley, Monte Major, 33/1 Bluebok, 50/1 Brazilian Brush, 100/1 Dancing Wave.

DIOMED VERDICT: Top weight EBRAAM can make his first start for Ron Harris a winning one and beat The Tatlingand Dancing Freddy.

A claimer this one and there are only 5 horses under 20/1 - will these 5 dominate and will Ebraam, now odds on, run as the odds suggest and , at least, place?

245 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Private Joke, 5/2 D´Artagnan, 16/1 Jingoism, 33/1 Flyjack, 100/1 Edge End, Rightcar Dominic.

DIOMED VERDICT: A very weak maiden with only the ex-South African D'Artagnan standing in the way ofPRIVATE JOKE. The market has this as a 2 horse race, quite obviously. Now, it would be logical to assume that D'artagnan is the value place only bet here in stead of the likely one Private Joke. 500 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Stirling Bridge, 5/2 Seeking Magic, 13/2 Konstantin, 9/1 Take Your Partner, 20/1 Bedibyes. DIOMED VERDICT: STIRLING BRIDGE showed more than enough in a much better maiden than this at Newmarket last time in October to earn the vote. Only 3 horses under 14/1 here to fight it out for 2 places. The dominant market horses are Stirling Bridge and Seeking Magic, the former has not run on the all weather and the latter is a debutant in this class 6 2 year old maiden for only 2 places. SHORTLIST What a tricky day today with slow ground at Wolverhampton something of an unknown quantity. I learned much to my cost how the ground increased kick back and was heavier than normal and this even affected previous course winners. 145 Wolves - a 29 race losing streak for nearest market rival a persuader to follow the market with Ebraam here? Now 7 runners and still 3 places so easier for Ebraam to place at 1.21. 245 WOLVES - Private Joke is 1.09 to place and D'artagnon a massive 1.61 to place -these are the 2 horses under 14/1 - can we trust them to domniate? This is a 2 year old maiden and 2nd fav comes from South Africa with the fav has only had the one run at Kempton. I must say the analysis of Private Joke's last race was not positive at all, so, as Diomed says, this really must be a poor maiden for Private Joke to be the strong favourite. D'artagnan's 1.6 ( albeit £15 - highly illiqud betting market) looks highly tradeable as value seekers seek an alternative to the short priced favourite. And that, as they say, is that! 2 slow ground Wolverhampton races. -------------------- NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address. http://www.cliveoneaday.com ------------ Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk. ---------------- One A Day oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181 ------------------------- Canonbury Publishing Ltd Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS Registered office address: Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94