must admit I was very happy with yesterday's analysis , and those speculative traders may have laid Chelsea at 1-0 up given Everton's fighting spirit to battle out draws, as shown again yesterday. Also I highlighted Ajax may be wounded at present and again all they managed was a draw.
Those who like correct score betting will have feasted on the 3 goals scored in the 6th game in a row by Barcelona, thanks largely to the Messi-ah.
In a tricky day all round, I was happy to come out ahead.
1230 - Philippines v Vietnam - 1.15 away - there have been a block of Asian internationals the last few days - go with the odds?
1pm - Giannina v Trikala - 1.22 home - Greek 2nd division is not what I would term a consistent bettable league but it is worthwhile to see if I can justify the odds for the home side. These 2 last met in a friendly in 2009 so I am assuming that Trikala are newcomers given Giannina are so short.
Typically Greek, 4 of Giannina's last 5 scorelines have been 1-0, 1-0, 0-0, 0-0 - 7 wins and 3 draws in last 10 league matches ( but remember last 2 league matches 0-0) , Giannina are very consistent but might be going through a goal drought at present. 8 of 12 matches at home in all competitions for Giannina have been 0-0 or 1-0 - amazing and amazingly Greek!!
October saw more goals for Giannina, but last few matches they have reverted, at home, to scoring 1 or none!!
WLWLLDWLDL for Trikala is very inconsistent indeed.
LLLDL away from home in Division 2 and , indeed, they are newcomers. 2 1-0's and a 0-0 amongst those 5 scorelines again typifies Greek football. I am amazed anyone turns up to watch such dross.
Trust the in form side against the newcomers who have lost 4 and drawn 1 away this season, despite Giannina's 0-0's on the trot?
Perhaps back with a 0-0 cover, although I suspect this Division 2 match is not in play.
2pm - Dinamo Zagreb v NK Varazdin - 1.19 home - tend to be generally trustworthy at such odds especially at home, but we still need to do the research. Croatian top flight. 7 wins on the trot in the league for Zagreb , no wonder they are so short at home. 100% record at home as well understandably so.
DWWDDLLD in the league for the opponents.
2-1, 2-1 and 1-1 in last 3 head to heads signal tight matches, especially the 1-1 last time out.
LLDLL away from home for Varazdin augurs well for short price takers of Dinamo Zagreb ( but will the latter have a Europa League hangover?)
Varazdin have conceded 3 and 2 in their last 2 matches away from home so seem vulnerable to a goal scoring side .
230pm - Leverkusen v FC Koln - 1.44 home - 4th v 2nd from bottom and home advantage should, logically, show itself for the better team.
2 most recent head to heads have been 0-0 and 1-0 win for Leverkusen , so perhaps an element of caution here as far as most recent head to heads go.
Only 1 loss in last 12 for Leverkusen and that was 1-0.
Have drawn their last 2 matches but that was against 6th and 7th in the leagues.
LDWDLWD at home this season is a little inconsistent - only 2 wins.
5 losses, a draw and a win away for FC Koln this season is the reason they seem immediately opposable - have lost against 2nd, 3rd and 5th away ( Leverkusen are 4th)
Koln won their last away match 1-0 (82nd penalty - feels like a tight match where they got lucky.
5pm - Anorthosis v Ethnikos Ach. - 1.28 home - Cypriot top flight -is it as drab, goalwise, as its Greek cousins. Anorthosis have won last 2 head to heads 3-1 and 2-1. As I was saying yesterday about shorties who are out of form, check out the last 6 matches for Anorthosis DDDLLL - now is this the kind of form that makes 1.28 appealing for Anorthosis, regardless of opposition?WWWDL at home this season has seen the decline in last 2 home matches.
Amazingly, Ethnikos's last 6 league matches are LLLDDD - surely something will give in this sequence today?
Again, this is not a betting proposition to me, but both teams have not seen a W in the form book in the last 6 matches.
5pm - Fenerbahce v Karabukspor - 1.38 home - no head to heads obviously suggests that Karab are newcomers to the top flight. Only 4th thus far is a much different looking top of the league table, Fener really need to start winning, but it is testament to their poor season that they are 1.38 against such perceived weak opposition.
Only 1 loss in last 10 for Fener so they are not in that bad form , just too many draws ( dropping 2 points in the process with each draw)
WWDWDWW at home -they are certainly doing their bit at home.3,0,4,5 the goals scored by Fener in last 4 home matches - they have the goal scoring thread at home most recently.
karab are perhaps a surprising 7th in the league this season, which I suppose is another explanation for the caution 1.38 quote for Fener at home.
LWDDDLL away from home this season. They have fought hard for the 4 matches prior to the 2 losses recently, conceding 2 and 5. So they can be vulnerable.
Interestingly, 100% of Karab's home matches and 71% of away matches have been over 2.5 goals (86% average) and this is worth considering for a goals bet in case Karab prove vulnerable today.
So 71% of Fener's home matches and 71% of Karab's away matches have been over 2.5 goals - making an over 1.5 goal bet safe?
2-2 against 2nd and 1-0 loss v 3rd away from home for Karab proves they could be a thorn in Fener's side. Only 1 win away for Karab was against bottom basement side.
Difficult match to weigh up but at the end of the day Fener have great form at home and are meeting a potentially vulnerable promoted side ( 2-1 and 5-1 loss last 2 away matches)
Conclusion could be to go over 1.5 goals - a neutral bet involving both sides.
1220 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Arthurian Legend, 4/1 Fontano, The Reformer, 6/1 Mizzurka, 9/1 Well Hello There, 16/1 Amroth Bay, 20/1 Reinriver, 25/1 Grey Missile, 33/1 Ballestra, Health Is Wealth, Lobby Ludd, 40/1 Grey Gold, Shinrock Hill, Sulpius, Turf Legends, 50/1 Flying Award, 66/1 Persian Present, 100/1 Man Of Leisure.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ARTHURIAN LEGEND won so well at Chepstow that he gets the vote despite very promising opponents Fontano, The Reformer and Mizzurka. |
Only 6 under 33/1 in this big field should allow us to narrow the field somewhat. Arthurian Legend and the Reformer dominate, but what of the ground and weather? Obviously tolerable with the racing given the go ahead
1230 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Its You Again, 9/4 Buddy Miracle, 3/1 Justbookie Dot Com, 6/1 Avon Supreme, 20/1 Bankroller, 28/1 Ippi N Tombi.
Now this is a 5 horse race for 2 places and 3 only under 25/1 here should make for a great probability race between the front 3 in the betting for the 2 places.
1250 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Sanctuaire, 11/4 Causeway King, Ciceron, 33/1 Salontyre.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SANCTUAIRE is only marginally preferred to Causeway King and Ciceron. |
Another extremely promising probability race with the front 3 likely to fight it out for the 2 places. Faith in obvious market leader Sanctuaire?
The other 2 cannot be split in the market. OF course much depends on the jumping.
120 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Royal Charm, 9/4 Tarablaze, 6/1 Hidden Keel.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ROYAL CHARM sets the standard after impressing here on his chasing debut. Tarablaze could be a serious rival but Hidden Keel is probably one for the longer term. |
Yet another probability race with 3 horses and 2 places at Betfair with Hidden Keel the obvious one to ditch.
SHORTLIST
2pm - Dinamo Zagreb v NK Varazdin - 1.19 home - the head to heads are a concern, but Dinamo's recent winning streak overall and at home in the league could allow us to take a risk.
5pm - Fenerbahce v Karabukspor - 1.38 home - whilst acknowledging that the away side are 7th in the league and not there by accident, we could argue that newcomers to the Turkish top flight should surely find life difficult against usual title contenders. Fener's home record is superb too this season. This bet has a more speculative feel to it. Goels bet perhaps given 71% of Fener's home matches, 71% of Karab's away matches and 86% average in Karab's matches are all over 2.5 goals.
1.21 over 1.5 goals may have a chance of coming in if these great %'s are reflected again.
1250 EXETER - probability races rule the roost today. Sanctuare here is the favourite and obvious starting point in a race where 3 horses should fight out the 2 places. 1.2 to place is generous given this fact. As ever over the jumps, they must complete. Also today I really don't know what the ground is really like at Exeter as the weather has, obviously, been savage.
120 EXETER - 3 horses and 2 places and surely Royal Charm must hold an outstanding chance of placing, with the outsider at 10/1
1.13 to place at present but very early. Is the obvious value alternative Tarablaze at 1.33 if we dismiss Hidden Keel ( 10/1 shot)?
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
All of the above would, I think, be worth putting here, but which stands out?
Obviously a 3 horse race for 2 places has the greatest chance of success. 120 EXETER though and a novices chase so these horses have L plates. Can Royal Charm confirm initial chase promise? Up in trip 1 furlong and a Nicholls recruit.
2pm - Dinamo Zagreb v NK Varazdin - 1.19 home - head to heads a worry here 2-1, 2-1, 1-1 in last 3 head to heads (most recent last) -in running and an illiquid market. Dinamo Zagreb have scored first in all of these head to heads. Home form is 100% but winning runs end, but today? I would look to trade if Zagreb score first/
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