*****ONE A DAY - 315 CATTERICK - DUNOWEN POINT TO PLACE ONLY****
I am fully aware that the market is king in bumpers. A neck 2nd last time out for Dunowen Point Under John Kington - has stable number one on today and faith that the market is accurate - only one of 3 under 14/1
The match yesterday finished with 5 goals so my personal decision for over 2.5 goals was successful. The reason I went with the match odds ( it lost) was because the over 2.5 goals was ideally approached with trading in mind, and I was concerned that some may not know how to trade, or when to exit ( fortunately Fortuna scored 2 before half time which pretty much guaranteed over 2.5 goals)
I do hope some followed me with the over 2.5 goals.
4pm - Mazembe v Internacional - 1.25 away - FIFA World Club Championship so really one offs these matches so the market has to be trusted.
CAF Champions League home team v Brasilian Division 1 team so how on earth do we evaluate them?
1.2 over 1.5 goals involves both sides?
535pm - Israel U18 v Germany U18 - 1.3 away - 2-1 and 2-0 in head to heads 2009 and 2008 for Germany.
9 wins and 2 draws for Germany - looks like the nippers are as reliable as the first team.
DDWWWDWW away from home for Germany under 18's is, again, solid enough.
2 of the last 3 aways have been 1-0 and 0-0 - slight concern re tightness.
Israel have lost 3 of last 4 matches and this is matched at home too.
730pm - Airbus UK v Bangor City - 1.42 away - 5-1, 3-0, 5-1 last 3 head to heads in favour of BAngor and the head to heads were all in 2010. So why only 1.42 if they have scored 13 in last 3 head to heads?
LDDDDLLLW for Airbus UK - win latest was 4-0 at home v bottom side ( Bangor are top!!)
WWWWWWW in the league for Bangor - can't get better than that. Again, why only 1.42? Very illiquid betting market alas and not in running.
2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 3-1 last 4 aways for Bangor hints at over 2.5 goals.
730pm - Llanelli v Haverfordwest - 1.38 home - 8 losses and 1 draw for Haverfordwest makes them opposable?
Possible ? re weather with Llanelli's last 4 matches were postponed - lack of match fitness an issue?
Catterick survives an inspection .
215 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Calypso Bay, 5/1 Bardolet, 13/2 Of Course, 8/1 Torta Nel Cielo, 10/1 Oniz Tiptoes, 10/1 Wor Rom, 14/1 Bene Lad, 14/1 Solway Bee, 14/1 Sonara, 16/1 Mardood, 16/1 Outlaw Tom, 20/1 Double Default, 25/1 Allanard, 25/1 Melange, 28/1 Geeveem, 28/1 Stagecoach Opal.
CALYPSO BAY (nap) is just the type that Jonjo O´Neill will continue to do well with and he may well defy a hefty rise in the weights for his Fontwell success. There are reasons to believe that Bardolet and Torta Nel Cielo have further improvement in them.[Steven Boow]
this is a handicap and there are 16 runners which allows us the flexibility of 4 places. Faith in the fav therefore? One of only 2 under 11/1 - 1.71 to place with 4 places is suspiciously big.315 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Fourjacks, 7/2 Dunowen Point, 5/1 Pasture Bay, 13/2 Little Hercules, 8/1 Bunclody, 8/1 Crowning Jewel, 14/1 High Hoylander, 14/1 Zaru, 16/1 Bogside, 25/1 Aeneid, 25/1 Crafti Bookie, 33/1 Kyte, 40/1 Everkingly, 40/1 Milans Danielle.
Over half the field have placed form in bumpers so there´s quite a lot to sift through. FOURJACKS may be the answer after pulling well clear of the remainder at Kelso last month. Dunowen Point and Pasture Bay also figure highly in calculations, while newcomers Little Hercules and Crowning Jewel have decent credentials.[Steven Boow]
Only 3 under 14/1 presently -will they dominate? Or will the market nearer the off show us some stable gambles which are hidden presently?
1235 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Sire De Grugy, 5/2 American Ladie, 13/2 Alarazi, 7/1 Saute, 9/1 Camden, 12/1 Alcalde, 12/1 Senses, 14/1 Catspan, 16/1 Mr Chow, 25/1 Classic Port, 33/1 Extremely So, 50/1 Bach To Back, 100/1 Graduation Night, 100/1 Grey Cruzene, 200/1 King Of Magic.
Several of these have the potential to do well over hurdles, even though this ground is likely to be challenging. SIRE DE GRUGY is an obvious starting point, though American Ladie is a potential improver, along with formerly useful Flat performer Alarazi, penalised for his Leicester win last month.[Emily Weber]
welcome back Choc Thornton for Alan King on American Ladie now 13/8 and only 1 of 3 under 14/1.
Soft ground at Folkstone
1225 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Finn´s Rainbow, 3/1 Ace Master, 4/1 Even Stevens, 10/1 Irish Boy, 10/1 Molly Mylenis, 14/1 Juarla, 20/1 Ridgeway Hawk, 25/1 Bernie´s Tune.
Ace Master and Even Stevens are both respected but FINN´S RAINBOW turned in an improved performance when second over C&D last week and a reproduction may be enough for him to go one better this time.[Paul Smith]
This is an interesting race profile, 8 runners and 3 places and 4 only under 16/1. A 2 year old nursery on a fibresand course ( they don't make it easy for me!) Finn's RAinbow is the favourite and could place again, running off the same mark as his 2nd over course and distance last time out.
Class 6 and 2 year olds - YUK!!
155 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Nazreef, 9/2 Elusive Fame, 11/2 Thunderball, 11/2 West End Lad, 8/1 Ours, 9/1 Capricornus, 12/1 Follow The Flag, 12/1 Street Devil, 14/1 Major Victory, 16/1 Revelator.
With all due respect to the excellent West End Lad and others with winning track form, the top weight NAZREEF (nap) looks the one with potential back on the AW after a decent effort in defeat over shorter on turf last month.[Emily Weber]
13/8 - - - -- 7/1 price gapper now and the market is overwhelmingly in favour of Nazreef. 2-2 at the course, but back in May 2010 and November 2009.
The ground is described as standard today , not standard to slow.
325 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 It´s A Mans World, 11/2 This Ones For Eddy, 13/2 Ace Of Spies, 8/1 Scruffy Skip, 8/1 Toby Tyler, 10/1 Flores Sea, 12/1 Charles Parnell, 12/1 Fools Gold, 16/1 Alpha Tauri, 16/1 Ponting, 16/1 Spread Boy, 20/1 Fathey, 20/1 Sophie´s Beau.
IT´S A MANS WORLD is still unexposed on the surface and makes plenty of appeal off the same mark as when runner-up to a well-handicapped rival here last week. This Ones For Eddy, Flores Sea and Scruffy Skip are also worth a mention.[Steven Boow]
Class 6 0-65 handicap and a price gapper with recent form of 12 -these tend to run well 13/8 and one of only 3 under 11/1 , it's a mans world could run well again. Slight concern that we may have missed the boat.
SHORTLIST
535pm - Israel U18 v Germany U18 - 1.3 away - trust Ze Germans here to be as clinical as their elders? 2-1 and 2-0 in 2009 and 2008 head to heads. Perhaps over 1.5 goals safer given these are nippers?1.2 for over 1.5 goals.730pm - Airbus UK v Bangor City - 1.42 away - like Arles v Lille ( Lille won with a 90th minute 1-0 goal) , this Bangor side look totally dominant form wise but their price is a little high ( I would expect a shorter price given the following) - 7/7 wins in the league against an Airbus side who managed a win last time out against bottom side. Illiquid market and not in running, the 1.41 could be a good price.
13 scored against Airbus in last 3 head to heads. Airbus have only won once all season and that was against bottom.
315 CATTERICK - the ideal is for us to view the market at race time as this is a bumper , but at present Dunowen Point is a likely mover - I do like McCain jr and maguire.
1.36 to place currently - only 3 under 14/1 and £75K purchase who has some experience. Interesting
155 SOUTHWELL - Nazreef is the biggest price gapper of the day - faith in this huge gap to reflect itself in dominance of this race? 1.4 to place - the only horse under 2.4 in the place only market.
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