With such stars it is difficult to pick. I feel, however, that Bayern Munich look a stronger winning chance this afternoon , having scored 3 or more in their last 4 home wins on the trot against a St Pauli side who have not scored in their last 3 away defeats.
*****ONE A DAY - 230pm - B Munich v St Pauli - Back B Munich in the match odds at 1.24 *****
1.19 Betfair SP perfectly acceptable for Regent Secret who won.
230pm - B Munich v St Pauli - 1.24 home - this really should be a trouble free home win for Bayern against newcomers St pauli. 15 games gone and 17 points adrift - a stuttering Bayern to say the least. They must win their home matches, especially against weaker opposition who are newly promoted.
WDDLWWWW - a great recent home flourish - 4 wins on the spin and highly impressive scorelines 3-0, 4-2, 3-0 , 4-1 in last 4 home matches. Highly consistent scoring against 2nd, 5th, 8th and 11th in the league. St Pauli are 14th.
3/4's of Bayern's home matches are now over 2.5 goals.
No head to heads of relevance ( last was 2006 Cup match)
Bayern's home form contrasts markedly with their away form ( last 4 aways DDDL)
Faith in home form here!
St Pauli's last 7 matches have been LLLLDLW.
WLWWLLL away from home. Last 3 losses have been 2-0 , 3-0 , 3-0 which fits in nicely with Bayern Munich's home scorelines in their last 4.
I expect, 3-0 today as a possible scoreline if St Pauli can be shut out for the 4th away match in succession.
3pm - West Ham v Man City - is this apparent recovery going to continue ( we should not really get carried away with the Man Utd result .) A win takes City top /joint top , so quite an incentive, albeit they will have played a game extra.
Contrasting head to heads - at home, the Hammer's last 2 have been 1-0 and 1-1 , but they get spanked away at City.
City are unbeaten in last 7 but are drawing far too often.WWD in last 3 aways for City.
Very surprising home form for the Hammers ( considering the doom and gloom merchants ) - LLWDLDDW - only one loss in last 5 home matches.
I was hoping to find something standout here but cannot.
6pm - Arles v Lille - 1.51 away - bottom v top so why the biggish price about Lille?
Only one loss away was 3-1 to Lyon. 3 1-1's and a 0-0 away to the top 10, a 1-1 away to 15th, and when playing the bottom 3 away have won 4-1 and 5-2 ( Arles makes up that bottom 3) , so again I have to ask the question, why the big price?
4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 for Lille shows a team in good form.
LLLLDWLD at home for Arles -admittedly they have only lost 1 of the last 4 at home - a turning point perhaps?
1 win all season came at home to 2nd bottom side. - why why why the 1.51?? It looks a great price for Lille today.
6pm - Porto v Juventude (Por) - 1.08 home - the Setabul match was a tight affair ( as could be foretold I suppose, and a missed 90th minute penalty helped Porto get the 3 points.) 1.08 usually indicates goals . Prior to Setabul, Porto had scored a minimum of 2 in their home league matches ( and those who read my analysis of the Setabul game would not have been surprised with a 1-0)
Juventude are Division 3 and really should be torn a new one ( excuse the french) this evening if Porto play a first team or anything remotely resembling a first team. What a pity the markets are so illiquid - I would look to over 2.5 and over 3.5 to trade, and think about halftime/fulltime although this is a Cup match and it would not surprise were it a draw at half time with fitness telling in 2nd half.
I do hope the markets flesh out nearer to 6pm.
Juventude are actually in decent form, only loss in last 12 came in last match. Porto are unbeaten in last 12, 9 wins and 3 draws. 11 wins and 1 draw at home ( that one draw a complacent 1-1 v Besiktas, a team they mullered in Turkey 3-1)
7pm - Genk v Eupen - 1.28 - Genk have been the surprise package this season in Belgium . Soccerstats.com has suddenly decided not to come up in my browser which is a great shame as I cannot do the best research I can into this or Gent's match.
7pm - Gent v Charleroi - 1.22 home
1200 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Oversteer, 7/4 For What, 14/1 Peals And Plaudits.
3 horses and 2 places and a clear probability race.
1.16 for For What looks the value here to place as Oversteer is 1.06 to place.
1210 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Sam Winner, 9/4 A Media Luz, 7/1 Pantxoa, 12/1 Horatio Caine, 16/1 Akula, 16/1 Pullyourfingerout, 25/1 Red Sparky, 33/1 Tom Wade, 40/1 Kayef, 40/1 Killusty Fancy, 50/1 Blinka Me, 300/1 Green Art.
If she jumps, A Media Luz is a big threat to SAM WINNER, who created such an impression when demolishing the opposition here last month.
1245 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Time For Rupert, 3/1 Chicago Grey, 6/1 Quinz, 8/1 Cannington Brook, 9/1 Balthazar King, 14/1 Robo, 16/1 Flight Leader, 66/1 Bentota.
TIME FOR RUPERT will relish the return to this trip and can take care of Chicago Grey.
8 runners, 2 are 33/1 or bigger - the only niggle is the chase fences.
135 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Cardinal, 9/4 Sioux Rising, 6/1 Billy Red, Secret Asset, 8/1 Vhujon, 20/1 Dingaan, 33/1 Art Scholar.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Secret Asset is on the way back and Cardinal on the up but the one to beat could be BILLY RED, who has a good course record and ran into a progressive type last time. |
Big move for Secret Asset - into 9/4 and all red adn the admirable George Baker takes the ride - only 2 places though
155 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Master Minded, 7/1 Gauvain, Kalahari King, Somersby, Twist Magic, 8/1 Petit Robin, 25/1 I´m So Lucky, 50/1 Oiseau De Nuit, 66/1 Mahogany Blaze, 500/1 Kinkeel.
| DIOMED VERDICT: MASTER MINDED is probably very much the one to beat. Somersby, Gauvain and Kalahari King may fight it out for the minor honours. |
Huge price gapper has had a recent run.
220 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Zakeeta, 2/1 Lay Claim, 9/2 Shouda, 6/1 Truly Magnificent, 13/2 Davana, 25/1 Drivemode, 50/1 Solo Choice, 66/1 Titanic Mill.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Lay Claim has a strong form chance but is 0-13 and this could be a good opportunity for dual hurdle winner ZAKEETA to strike on the Flat. |
Only 4 horses under 25/1 makes this a very interesting probability race if still 3 places ( 7 runners remain)
305 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Cue Card, Menorah, 5/2 Silviniaco Conti, 12/1 Clerk´s Choice, 25/1 Cristal Bonus, 50/1 Astracad, Der Spieler, 100/1 Nicene Creed, 500/1 Liberty Seeker.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Cue Card has oozed star quality so far but MENORAH looked a real streetfighter when showing much-improved form in the Greatwood here last month and may grind down his younger rival. |
I missed Cue Card last time. I won't make that mistake this time! Only 4 under 25/1 means if he completes he should place.
SHORTLIST
230pm - B Munich v St Pauli - 1.24 home - 4 wins at home for Bayern should continue today against St Pauli who have lost last 3 aways. Slight concern that Bayern are so bad away last 4 ( dddl) I just hope for another 3 goals like the last 4 home matches.
6pm - Arles v Lille - 1.51 away - I really am scratching my head regarding this price - whenever there's odds like this which in no way resemble Lille's dominant form, it makes me wonder whether the market makers are privy to any information that I am not. Unmanaged market but still in running, I would speculate on the trade here - back Lille and hope they score - after all they scored 9 against 2 of the bottom 3 away from home.
6pm - Porto v Juventude (Por) - 1.08 home - I would look to goals here to enhance these odds but the market is highly illiquid. I could speculate on over 3.5 goals to trade ( asians start at +3) or even over 4.5 goals.
1245 CHELTENHAM - Time for Rupert - I rarely read such confidence " watch him go over his ideal trip" 1.23 to place - clear round required as ever.
155 CHELTENHAM - Masterminded is a huge price gapper here 10/11 - - - -- 7/1 - surely with confidence like this he must place with a clear round.
Concern with the Nicholls runners is the Ruby Factor - how much of a factor was Ruby Walsh to the horses winning compared to, say, Noel Fehily? 1.28 to place - clear round required
305 CHELTENHAM - Cue Card looks too good to miss here ( again with the caveat of a clear round) - my concern is that the front 3 are pretty much similarly priced and I would have to assume, if place backing Cue Card, that they dominate the places)
1.33 to place could look quite big by 315pm
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