31/12

Little to get me excited about today as we face a full programme of better sport tomorrow. The 1200 Lingfield would be the bet for me but 2 year olds and all weather surfaces do not appeal. Still, from a probability perspective, it is a good race. Default to Les Verguettes in a race which should be 3 for 2 places. There is nothing remotely as safe as , say, Club Brugge today so I will wait for the new year.



I expected more consistency from Toner D'oudaires but "He did not jump as proficiently as he can and is probably better than this." Scant consolation.

2pm - Donegal Celtic v Linfield - 1.36 - caution re the weather in Northern Ireland? 2010 head to heads and Linfield have scored 9 in their 2 against Donegal. Donegal have lost 9 and won 2 of their last 11 matches. Linfield have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10.
Both teams have not played for a short period due to the weather,

1200 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Les Verguettes, 5/4 Cloud Illusions, 6/1 Littleportnbrandy, 33/1 Litotes, 100/1 Big City Boy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Likely this will boil down into a match between LES VERGUETTES and Cloud Illusions, with preference for the former who battled valiantly when pipped at Kempton last week.[Adrian Cook]

Perfect probability race this one and perhaps better to focus on probabilities?

It would have paid off yesterday.

Les Verguettes odds on now in what should be a 3 horse race for 2 places

1240 UTTOXETER

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Herdsman, 13/8 Tornado Bob, 11/2 Wood Yer, 9/1 Jan Jandura, 20/1 Brainwave, 20/1 Tanwood Boy, 33/1 Lindengrove, 40/1 Crabbies Court, 40/1 Saffron Lord, 50/1 Murfreesboro, 66/1 Monty´s Revenge.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HERDSMAN and Tornado Bob stand out. The latter has already shown plenty of promise over hurdles but Herdsman looked a horse of considerable potential in bumpers and is just preferred. [Mel Cullinan]

4 horses should be involved here in this maiden hurdle on heavy ground - yes not ideal at all!

Again, a matter of playing the probabilities, but horses not yet fully accustomed to hurdles taking their chances in heavy ground means none can be comfortably backed.

30/12

*****ONE A DAY - 100 LEOPARDSTOWN - Toner D'oudaires to place*****

As already expressed, I wish it was yesterday's racing I was choosing from rather than today's but the above looks the best of the shortlist. There are a couple of probability bets so take a shot!

3 under 20/1 so the hope is , if Toner does not win, he places. As ever, I cannot compensate for falls etc as this comes with the territory.

Club Brugge was the best bet of the day and 5-0 win testified to this. The frustrating thing about yesterday was that all the horse races were one a day bets.

1210 DOWNROYAL

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Dylan Ross, 4/1 Silverlord, 8/1 Falcon Island, 12/1 Rookery Rebel, 16/1 Anderson Mcauley, 16/1Indubitably, 20/1 Firm Foundations, 20/1 Noble Jack, 20/1 Some Fool, 33/1 Baraka Boy, 33/1 Nearest The Pin, 33/1 Respectueux, 50/1 Nodelay, 50/1 Rassi Maguire, 50/1 Se Beag, 66/1 Highland Flash, 100/1 Eddie Zero, 100/1 Fascinating Paddy, 100/1 Silver Cygnet, 100/1 Uncle Taffy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks to be a good opportunity for the promising DYLAN ROSS to make a winning start to his hurdling career. Silverlord looks to be the one for the forecast. [Kevin Blake]

This should be a 4-5 horse race with the odds on Dylan Ross of obvious interest. The betting markets are not fully formed yet, so I will update again. We simply take a chance on hurdles ability because Dylan Ross is a bumper winner. 3 under 20/1 but Dylan Ross is new to hurdling -if he takes to it the market tells us he will place at worst.

1240 DOWNROYAL

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Drumbaloo, 6/1 Its All Hush Hush, 7/1 Couleur De La Loi, 7/1 Flemenscall, 9/1 Golan Guy, 9/1 He´s Our Man, 10/1 Crude, 10/1 Yes Tom, 20/1 Another Palm, 20/1 Qoubilai, 20/1 Whatdouthink, 25/1 Kid Curry, 33/1 Connie De Mar, 33/1 Tix All The Boxes, 50/1 Izind An Affair, 50/1 Lavish Blue, 50/1 Mc Paddy, 50/1 Tammys Hill, 66/1 Oscar´s Ballad.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Drumbaloo is likely the most talented of these but he has to prove he can take to hurdling on his first bid. Ready preference is for ITS ALL HUSH HUSH (nap), who can step up beyond his rating and get off the mark.

Yes Tom is a big market mover here in another maiden hurdle.

140 DOWNROYAL

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Tharawaat, 7/2 Monastrell, 10/1 Like Your Style, 10/1 Paradis De Thaix, 12/1 City Of Doral, 16/1Inverglen, 20/1 Farmaland, 33/1 Rocklet, 50/1 Amber Bob, 50/1 Maple Valley Gale, 50/1 Not A Native.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Monastrell is an interesting recruit to chasing, but THARAWAAT was significantly better than him over hurdles and has the benefit of experience over fences. [Kevin Blake]

Beginners Chase and a fav unseating rider last time out - has had 2 chase runs but we know these horses have L plates on

Heavy ground at Downroyal and heavy ground at Leopardstown.

100 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Toner D´oudairies, 11/4 What A Charm, 6/1 Kalann, 10/1 Fearless Falcon, 10/1 Kristal Komet, 12/1Narima, 14/1 Sailors Warn, 16/1 Accidental Outlaw, 20/1 Days Ahead, 25/1 Al Dafa.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: What A Charm is a very interesting recruit to hurdling, but it will take a high-class performance from her to get the better of the penalised TONER DOUDAIRIES. Kalann can be expected to close the gap on the selection.

Only 3 under 14/1 here and Toner is now odds on. Value alternative in What a charm? Won his last 2 hurdles races and if handling the ground should place surely for Gordon Elliott who loves his raids in Ireland.

200 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Mikael D´haguenet, 6/1 Loosen My Load, 8/1 Realt Dubh, 10/1 Noble Prince, 10/1 Torphichen, 12/1Saludos, 14/1 Gates Of Rome, 20/1 Pay The Bounty.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should provide ample compensation for Drinmore casualty MIKAEL D'HAGUENET who seems to retain the engine that made him such a good novice hurdler. Loosen My Load looks best for the forecast. [Alan Sweetman]

Mullins/Townend recruit who is dominating the betting , fell at the last last time out and set to gain " ample compensation" today - 8 runners and 3 places makes it ideal for place betting, but novice chases are inherently risky. The mover seems to be noble prince

1235 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Negotiation, 13/8 Edgeworth, 3/1 Urban Space, 16/1 Ting Ting, 66/1 Lord Lansing.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A small field and NEGOTIATION, who ought at least to be able to dictate as he likes, can gain a deserved success over Edgeworth.[Graeme North]

This should be a 3 horse race for 2 places if the betting is accurate at time of writing. This becomes a probability race therefore.

1245 TAUNTON

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 I´m In The Pink, 9/4 Try Cat, 5/2 Perfect Reward, 6/1 Primera Rossa, 25/1 Barodine, 33/1 Bless My Soul, 50/1 Tiger Breeze, 66/1 King Of Magic, 100/1 Sir Clad.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tuesday's Ffos Las third Try Cat has already failed in an identical contest here before and Perfect Reward wouldn't want conditions to dry out much more so preference is for I'M IN THE PINK, dropped to selling company and with McCoy on board, both for the first time.[Jeremy Grayson]

A selling hurdle perhaps not the ideal betting medium but the betting market indicates a 4 horse race with the 4 under 20/1 set to compete for the places? Perfect Reward is the early market mover but as you can guess these horses will not be following in Big Buck's footsteps!

225 TAUNTON

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Semi Colon, 11/4 Chilli Rose, 3/1 Mizzurka, 10/1 Tazzarine, 12/1 Lost Two Stars, 14/1 Lucy´s Perfect, 14/1 Piggy Back, 16/1 Hill Forts Gloria, 50/1 Karinga Dream, 50/1 Sun Des Mottes, 100/1 Molly Round, 200/1 Dark Haven.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A strong race of its type but CHILLI ROSE might be able to make a winning return against Semi Colon, who showed a good deal of ability in bumpers, and Mizzurka, who will doubtless come on a good deal for her hurdle debut at Exeter back from a break.[Emily Weber]

3 under 14/1 here and Chilli Rose for King/Thornton could be a good place only chance if there are no accidents and the betting is accurate.

SHORTLIST

Downroyal sees 2 hurdling debutants and a beginner chaser who fell last time out! I think I will avoid, particularly in the heavy ground .

100 LEOPARDSTOWN - Gordon Elliott is full of confidence in Toner D'Oudaires , as is the market - as one of only 3, currently, under 20/1, a clear round should suffice? Davy Russell takes the ride. As ever, the other 2 under 20/1 may be the value bets against the favourite. The trainer has no reservations about the ground for Toner.

200 LEOPARDSTOWN - Mikael D´haguenet is priced to win but when Willie Mullins has his suspicions that the race may come a bit quick, then we have to account for this. A faller last time ( well he slipped at the last rather than any jumping error), we will be betting on the horse being ok to run today . If he is, and completes ( as ever) he will place.

1235 LINGFIELD - this race is included as it looks like a 3 horse race for 2 places with negotiation and edgeworth set to dominate?

1245 TAUNTON - a selling hurdle and 4 under 20/1 here makes this of interest for place only backers, but trusting these mongrels to be consistent is another matter entirely.

225 TAUNTON - 3 only under 14/1 for this mares novices hurdle and another race where we have to have faith in the betting market. Chilli Rose of interest under Thornton/King but a difficult race to assess.

Oh how I wish it was yesterday's racing today as it is niggly today with heavy and soft ground in Ireland, and probability races elsewhere.

No football today. Perhaps we can wait to new year's day for the stronger betting opportunities. Looking at the racing , there is nothing as solid as Club Brugge for instance. But which of the above can I shortlist again?

100 LEOPARDSTOWN - there are some unexposed sorts here ( literal dark horses!!) but the market points at dominance from 3 horses and the trainer's confident words regarding Toner D'Oudaires puts him firmly in my mind to place under Davy Russell.1.18 to place in a very illiquid market. HEadline in the Racing Post " I'll be disappointed if Toner D'oudaires gets beaten" says Gordon Elliott.

1235 LINGFIELD - the prices in the place market are very enticing Edgeworth is 1.42 to place and Negotiation is 1.52 to place - 5 horses and 2 places

1245 TAUNTON - 4 under 25/1 so it's pot luck with the front 4 - 3 should place- default to the fav Perfect Reward (just to make selection a little easier? ) - this is a selling hurdle though so really it would not be a surprise were one of the market leaders to falter.

--------------------

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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

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*****ONE A DAY - 730pm - Club Brugge v Charleroi - back Brugge in the match odds at 1.22*****

A day with a wealth of horse opps, but the 120 Leopardstown offers the best price for a 3 horse/2 place probability .

Maroud won and I was pleased to see the Man Utd score, 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 my prediction and all 3 would have actually made you a trading profit with the goal coming on the hour ( 0-0 would have reduced considerably, 1-0 would have profitted as the equaliser came in the last minute)



730pm - Bangor City v Prestatyn - 1.3 home - analysis from 27th December -
230PM – Bangor City v Prestatyn – 1.22 home – although I suspect the weather might have a say, this looks a straightforward home win with Bangor 9 from 9 at home this season, ( I cannot really find a proper website to do my usual analysis here as the game does not show up on www.futbol24.com – Bangor are clear at the top of the league with 15 wins and 1 draw this season.
Prestatyn have won 5, drawn 5 and lost 5 and they have won 2 lost 5 away.
DWWW at home in head to heads but not dominant in overall head to heads for Bangor.DWDWLW so only winning half of head to heads.

Prestatyn are unbeaten in last 7 , and last 4 on the trot have been over 2.5 goals

LLLLLWW away from home. Just peaking in their last 2 matches, and given head to heads , this improvement may be a headache for Bangor City.

Perfect for Bangor in last 12 bar a league cup defeat at home.

730pm - Club Brugge v Charleroi - 1.22 home - Brugge have won the last 4 2009/2010 head to heads, most recently 1-0 and then 5-0 away
LLLDLLLLLL for Charleroi in their last 10 matches signals why Brugge are warm order.
Charleroi are 16th (bottom) and against 11th and below at home, Brugge have won 4-3, 4-1, 4-0, 2-0 . Remember the Anderlecht match? It's those 4's again!
Brugge have won 3 of their last 4, the loss coming against Anderlecht ( not a surprise really)
Brugge have already won 5-0 this season away at Charleroi, and this ties in with their performances against bottom 6.
70% of home matches have been over 2.5 goals which is a good stat.
Away to the top 5 ( Brugge are 4th) , Charleroi have lost 4-1, 5-0, 2-1, 2-1 which augurs well for Brugge. Again those 4's and 5's rear their heads in the correct score?
Charleroi have lost their last 7 on the trot.
DLLLDLLLLL away from home for Charleroi.
I am unsure as to the weather which may play its part? It looks an easy assignment for Club Brugge. This is the last match of the year and a nice break afterwards so no excuses really.

745pm - Celtic v Motherwell - 1.32 home - still playing catch up despite breaking a 3 match home draw sequence last time ( and truthfully perhaps that was the time to back Celtic , as they could not tolerate another home match with dropped points.DDWWWW head to heads for Celtic - last win only 1-0
Motherwell were just beaten 4-1 at home v Rangers so this should signal an ideal scoreline to aim for for Celtic.
DDDW at home for Celtic already mentioned and these are in fact the last 4 matches too. Must win in order to keep the pressure on Rangers who have a game in hand as well as the 2 points.
WWWLWLD away for Motherwell - good form - they have succumbed to Rangers away but beat 3rd, 4th, 5th and 8th away in the league. A note of caution for what was a stuttering Celtic at home?

745pm - Chelsea v Bolton - 1.33 home - the decline at Chelsea continues - now 5th and beaten by a side who they normally beat well. DWWWWW in head to heads and scored 4,4,4,1 in last 4 head to heads against Bolton, but this is a different Chelsea at the moment.
This match is actually 5th v 6th and Owen Coyle has made a real difference to this Bolton side ( in stark contrast to Houllier whose charges conceded 3+ goals again yesterday. )
This 1.33 really looks layable doesn't it. I already pointed out to you the lack of goals for Chelsea 0,1,0,0,1,1,1,1 in last 8 matches - no coincidence surely?
LLDDDL in last 6 and LD in last 2 home matches ( last goal was a penalty as if to emphasise trouble in scoring from open play)
Bolton have faltered away to top 7 sides, 2 1-0 losses and a 4-1 reverse at Arsenal.
67% of away matches are under 2.5 goals which will not please Chelsea.
WLDDDDWLL for Bolton away- we see why they are not challenging top 4 - too many draws away. Lost last 2 aways 1-0 so keep things tight . Back 0-0 to trade, lay Chelsea are ready tradeable options I think. Both are priced such that liabilities/stakes at risk are minimal.

8pm - Liverpool v Wolves - 1.32 home - Liverpool have won their last 4 home matches and well too, 2-1, 2-0, 3-0, 3-0 - the 3-0's came against strugglers West Ham and Villa and Wolves are in the same part of the table. ( bottom)
2-0 ( late 2nd half goals and Wolves down to 10 men) and 0-0 last 2 head to heads signal a match of frustration for Liverpool this afternoon. With Kevin Doyle out though for Wolves, it is difficult to see them reply should they concede.
Trust that Liverpool have turned a corner at home or leave well alone?


1250 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Zaidpour, 7/2 Hidden Cyclone, 8/1 First Lieutenant, 12/1 Perfect Smile, 20/1 Hazeymm.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Having won the Royal Bond with the minimum of exertion, ZAIDPOUR is very hard to oppose, though a bumper winn for the Hanlon stable here yesterday provides an encouraging omen for the prospects of the unbeaten Hidden Cyclone who rates the dangers

Front 2 set to dominate with Hidden the obvious value alternative to the hot pot. Heavy ground so a degree of caution here

120 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Big Zeb, 2/1 Golden Silver, 7/2 Captain Cee Bee, 14/1 J´y Vole, 25/1 Scotsirish.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The reigning two-mile champion BIG ZEB won this event two seasons ago and holds a clear edge over last year's winner Golden Silver, whom he beat in the Fortria at Navan on his seasonal debut, [Alan Sweetman

With J'yvole out, this is 3 horses for 2 places with one clear outsider. Default to Big Zeb in a great probability race?

155 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Hurricane Fly, 7/4 Solwhit, 12/1 Thousand Stars, 16/1 Luska Lad, 33/1 Won In The Dark.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A rematch of the Hatton's Grace in which Solwhit failed to make his race-fitness count and was unable to resist HURRICANE FLY who can be fancied to emerge best again.

Another match up here with a clear round

355 LIMERICK

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Allee Garde, 7/1 Academy General, 8/1 Letter Of Credit, 8/1 Radio Eireann, 10/1 Indian Spinner, 12/1Artic King, 12/1 Giveabobback, 16/1 Friendly Society, 20/1 Publisher Supremo, 33/1 Betwixn Between, 33/1 Bobby Cullen, 33/1 The Burrow Vision, 50/1 Croghan Hill, 50/1 Sorry Folks, 50/1 Waveney Heights.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little reason to oppose ALLEE GARDE, who stands out clearly on form for the leading bumper trainer.Indian Spinner can chase him home. [Johnny Ward]

Price gapper here although less pronounced in the live market.

1230 NEWBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Grandouet, 9/2 Pullyourfingerout, 5/1 Domtaline, 6/1 A Media Luz, 20/1 Knockdolian, 33/1 Mark Twain, 50/1 L´eminence Grise, 100/1 Langley.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GRANDOUET, second to Triumph Hurdle ante-post favourite Sam Winner last month, should find this opposition less demanding. Pullyourfingerout is going the right way and may prove most dangerous.[Frank Carter]

8 runners and 3 places and only 4 under 16/1 - trust the fav to place with a clear round?

100 NEWBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Punchestowns, 9/4 Pride Of Dulcote, 12/1 Hills Of Aran, 14/1 Tatenen.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A fascinating clash of two potential Gold Cup contenders who are returning from enforced absences due to injury, namely PUNCHESTOWNS and Pride Of Dulcote. Punchestowns, who has already won a couple of Graded events over fences, is very much the one to beat on form but Pride Of Dulcote does have plenty of potential and it will be interesting to see how he gets on after 14 months off the track.[Steven Boow]

And another match up!!

320 NEWBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 2/11 Big Buck´s, 7/1 Duc De Regniere, 14/1 Restless Harry, 25/1 Kayf Aramis, 40/1 Lough Derg, 100/1Afsoun.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No getting away from BIG BUCK'S who has 20lb in hand on official figures, landed the postponed edition of this race here a year ago and continues to carry all before him in this division. Duc De Regniere can take the measure ofRestless Harry in the battle for minor honours.[Frank Carter]

Obvious win only ?

SHORTLIST

730pm - Club Brugge v Charleroi - 1.22 home

8pm - Liverpool v Wolves - 1.32 home - trust the home form ?

All the horseraces are contenders today.1250, 120 , 155 Leop the ones for me with the 120 standout

Big Bucks 1.2 to win is tempting.

--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
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Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

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28/12

A difficult day really. I don't normally focus on football matches over 1.5 so today's matches would not normally be on my radar - and for good reason - there is nothing absolutely standout, not any dominant team in over 1.5 football matches.

Horse racing wise, the shortlist would include Priceless art with that important course and distance success and run on standard to slow. Elsewhere Mourad and Shirley Casper would be of interest here


*****ONE A DAY 200 LEOPARDSTOWN - MOURAD TO PLACE ONLY *****



I wish this was live as we could have reacted to Even Stevens withdrawal as Shostakovich won and Mazovian 3rd.

The Arsenal Chelsea game was difficult to evaluate but Arsenal are now 20 without a draw and Chelsea continue to be unable to score more than 1 in a premiership match.

3pm - Man City v Aston Villa - 1.5 home - WDWWLDDWL at home - inconsistent to say the least. Must react to Chelsea's loss and consolidate home advantage today.Only 1 loss in last 8 matches for City is good form.Villa are 15th, and against 13th and 14th City have drawn 1 and lost 1. Potential for a niggly match?
Villa away have lost all 6 matches to top 13 sides so you would expect City to continue this trend.
LLWLLD away for Villa is poor. They have lost 4 of their last 5 matches so enter this contest in poor form.
WDW for City in 2009 and 2010 head to heads augurs well for this afternoon.
6 of Villa's last 7 matches have seen over 2.5 goals.


3pm - Sunderland v Blackpool - 1.64 home - all 4 losses this season for the Black Cats have come away from home so we expect a win or draw at home which brings in the lay of Blackpool. At 6.6 to lay, this is equivalent to a 1.17 back bet.
DWDDWWDWW at home for Sunderland.
WLWLWLLDDW for Blackpool away - unbeaten in their last 3 aways.
6th to 10th in the league away from home it is DWWW for Blackpool ( Sunderland are 7th)
This indicates that the top 4 are a step too far but there is some parity with those outside the upper echelon.
This now puts into question the lay of Blackpool.
Blackpool have a 75% overall record for over 2.5 goals. Away from home it is only 60%
Sunderland at home is 22% over 2.5 goals. Attack v defence?
Tough match to get an angle into.


3pm - Tottenham v Newcastle - 1.58 home - Tight against the top 10 at home, 3 draws and a win, with the Geordies 9th.
Spurs are unbeaten in 7 matches -DLWWDDWWD at home so solidity - Van Der Vaart is an important returnee
Newcastle have struggled away to top 6 with 3 losses and a 1-0 win v Arsenal.
I am retiscent about betting when there has been a change of manager as the previous results may have been gained with a previous manager's tactical formations and attitude. This might change results now with Pardew in ( the big name chosen to, ahem, attract the Sky cameras to St James Park ( snigger!!))
4 of Newcastle's last 5 matches have been over 3.5 goals. 2 heavy away defeats in the last 2 indicate Pardew may have upset the balance a little?
Newcastle have only failed to score once in their last 13 matches which signals perhaps that a neutral goals bet may give us a betting angle here?

8pm - Birmingham v Man Utd - 1.54 away - a game and 2 points in front , can get away with a draw but a win prefered with Chelsea faltering last night. 9 draws have kept Brum 4th from bottom. WDDLWDWD at home for Birningham - they remain steadfast at home.
Last 4 head to heads have been 1-0, 1-0, 1-0 1-1 ( all wins for United)
Guess the scorelines of Brum's last 5 Premiership matches - 0-0, 1-0 , 1-1, 1-1, 1-0

Can we safely assume today will see under 3.5 goals? Add in the congestion of Xmas and we could see another tight encounter. Interestingly United away has been either 0-0 or United scoring 2 or more.

WDWD last 4 at home includes win over Chelsea and keeping Spurs at bay. I would prefer a neutral bet here as Brum could nick a 1-0.

1220 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 So Young, 5/1 Ruler Of All, 6/1 Tom Horn, 7/1 Resolute Bay, 8/1 Changing Times, 8/1 Harpsy Cord, 8/1 The Engineer, 10/1 Baily Green, 10/1 Under The Arch, 12/1 Inish Island, 16/1 Galvanising, 20/1 Senior Again, 20/1 Shariyan, 20/1 Too Late To Sell, 25/1 Court Knee, 25/1 Mr Meaner, 25/1 Young Dale, 33/1 Memories Of Milan, 33/1 Minella Special, 33/1 Mughal Empire, 33/1 Optimal Power, 33/1 Tango Jo, 50/1 Dont Tell De Purty, 50/1 Edmundo, 50/1 Maharaja.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: French import So Young is sure to have his supporters first time over hurdles but the first-time blinkered RULER OF ALL edges the vote over Resolute Bay with Changing Times another who looks open to improvement. [Brian Fleming]

So Young is a Mullins/Townend recruit backed into 6/4 so deserves maximum respect. Do note the large field, soft to heavy ground and maiden hurdle status of this race.

200 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mourad, 9/2 Mossey Joe, 13/2 Oscar Dan Dan, 7/1 Shinrock Paddy, 8/1 Powerstation, 10/1 Rigour Back Bob, 16/1 Alpine Glade, 16/1 Rick, 20/1 Moskova, 20/1 Summit Meeting, 200/1 Garrai Ard.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a fine opportunity for MOURAD following an encouraging start to the season in the Hatton's Grace, an effort that gives him the measure of Oscar Dan Dan. Though Mossey Joe is faced with a big jump in class here he should not be out of place, and could make a major impact providing that he settles effectively. [Alan Sweetman]

Price gapper again for Mullins/Townend in this hurdles race. Follow the market? Has won in heavy.

245 LIMERICK

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Shirley Casper, 4/1 Back Me Up, 9/2 Gentle Alice, 14/1 Beg La Eile, 14/1 Clever Creation, 20/1 Lady Shanakill, 20/1 Radharc Na Mara, 25/1 Ahsurelookit, 33/1 Big Allice, 33/1 Conrich, 33/1 Julies Vic, 33/1 Mill Hill Suzi, 50/1 Florida Pet, 50/1 Miss Taggle.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Her overall hurdles form is the best on offer and her effort at Naas last month after an 18-month absence shows that SHIRLEY CASPER has plenty more to offer. She looks too good for this opposition. Back Me Up is an intriguing chasing debutant but the main danger may well be Gentle Alice, who ran far better than her finishing position at Thurles last month. [Justin OHanlon]

Soft to heavy - heavy in places and a beginners chase but " looks too good for this opposition"

Now 1/2 and only 3 under 14/1 so barring accidents this should give us a good run for our money.

1205 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lady Rosamunde, 7/2 Isingy Red, 9/2 Links Drive Lady, 8/1 Tornado Force, 10/1 The Tichborne, 14/1 Apple Dumpling, 20/1 Phoenix Flame, 25/1 Fantale.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LADY ROSAMUNDE, proming on debut and very well bred, is likely to prove hard to beat for stable which is 3-4 with 2yos this month. Isingy Red may give her most to do.[Frank Carter]

3 under 14/1 here and Lady Rosamunde " likely to prove hard to beat"

2 year old maiden and has only one run - trust probability?

120 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Priceless Art, 8/1 Next Exit, 11/1 Sheepclose, 12/1 Easton Clump, 12/1 Ouest Eclair, 16/1 Jack The Gent, 25/1 Erin Dancer, 50/1 Royal Crystal, 66/1 Are Olive, 66/1 Beau D´argent.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRICELESS ART won a weak race here last week with his rider looking round for non-existent dangers and can go in again. Irish Symphony could be the one to beat.[Paul Johnson]

Huge price gapper and also has a win at Southwell and importantly ( like winner Opus Dei yesterday) in standards and slow - 1.31 for the win and 1.07 to place.

SHORTLIST

3pm - Man City v Aston Villa - 1.5 home - 1.28 over 1.5 goals is of some appeal to a Villa team in bad recent form and a City team putting together a reasonable run. An early goal should secure a nice trading profit.

3pm - Tottenham v Newcastle - 1.58 home - another neutral bet preferred here and over 1.5 goals at 1.23 looks the safer play for a Newcastle side who have had over 3.5 goals in 4/5 matches and who have scored in 12/13 matches.

8pm - Birmingham v Man Utd - 1.54 away - likely to be a 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 if head to heads and Birmingham's recent scorelines are anything to go by, but United draw 0-0 or score 2 or more away from home. A huge case of drawitis away is a concern for United and Brum are not quite the team to play to change this.

1.32 under 3.5 goals would be my play here, the safer play under 4.5 goals at 1.13 -I would insist on trading ( i.e. if 0-0 at half time, I would look to trade out of the 1.32 - pure common sense really )

0-0 looks backable to trade ( like the Arsenal match yesterday where it was 0-0 for 40 minutes) as this is likely to be tight early on ( cue another Berbatov 5th minute goal)

200 LEOPARDSTOWN - Mourad looks good for a place here with a clear round. 1.4 to place is tempting but accounts for the ground conditions. Mullins/Townend are rarely unplaced when on price gappers.

245 LIMERICK - Shirley Casper looks sure to improve on comeback chase run last time out and is warm order to do so at around 1.18 to place. A beginners chase but has a couple of chase runs and the analysis of last race indicated a good jumper. Illiquid betting market at present.

120 SOUTHWELL - a course and distance winner, Priceless art is a huge price gapper and importantly has had the experience ( winning) on Southwell when it is standard to slow as it will be today.
1.3 to win is enticing here . 1.07 to place looks nailed on.
Next exit and Ouest Eclair , the only other 2 under 25/1 could be the value each way plays here.

8pm - Birmingham v Man Utd - 1.54 away -under 4.5 goals at 1.13 looks very appealing. Risk under 3.5 goals at 1.3 instead? Looking at head to heads and Birmingham's home record, they are tough to beat. The Xmas concertina of matches though might bring anomolous results.
3pm - Man City v Aston Villa - 1.5 home - 1.28 over 1.5 goals - 6 of Villa's last 7 matches over 2.5 goals is standout here but 0,0,0,1,1 the goals scored at home by City last 5 at home could put a dampener on this. Last 3 matches though, have seen 4,3,4 goals.

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NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

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