Your grandchildren will one day ask "Grampa,do you remember where you were when Georgios Samaras scored a goal?" - unbelievable scenes! Rangers and Hearts decided to behave themselves with only 2 yellow cards - 1st goal came in the 25th minute for the first goal odds dutch. The Racing Post proved invaluable yesterday in telling us about Hearts' injury scares which made the 8/13 about Rangers even more enticing - so bear that in mind - any snippets of information that can alter your opinions is worth taking on board.
Draw/Draw full time was the most profitable result with the Boro match.
Elsewhere we we so near a bumper payout on Lady Wright - trading at 1.72 I could have greened the screen for a £37 profit instead of holding out of a £68 payout for a £5 stake but the horse emptied out but still placed. Olympian didn't place ,neither did Littleton Aldor - the 1.79 was spot on for the place only market in telling us this was no given. You would have got a return on the more obvious Tarabaloo instead of Will Excell but with the latter we could put on smaller stakes for a potential bigger return.
The Wolves dutch came off. and we were right to oppose Little Wing ,but Bussell Up only placed.
3 into 1 continues to select inappropriate races , and Sion Hill, although winning, wasn't a 3 into 1 selection - bloody typical!. Beggars Cap won at a silly price. You may be wondering why I keep faith in it - well its because the profits prior to trialling the system out in the open were superb
LINGFIELD
210
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Count Ceprano has rediscovered winning form recently but this small field should play to the strengths of SENESCHAL. Top weight Mia’s Boy is worth noting in the market |
The defection of Count Cyprano has left the 3 market leaders currently priced at 3.15, 3.3 and 3.95 - all backable to level stakes - staking of £9, £10, £10 will create a slight loss on the best one, £3.80 profit on Mias Boy, and equivalent evens return on Seneschal
Beware - apprentice handicap!Only 2 other horses enter the equation and cannot be dismissed because of the race type but probability wise we are covering the 3 most likely
240
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Dhhamaan, 2/1 Wee Buns, 5/1 Llab Nala, 10/1 Mileaminutemurphy, 12/1 Racie Gracie .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The drop in grade and trip looks just the ticket for DHHAMAAN who can add to his C&D win back in November under Hayley Turner.[AC] |
I like these bets - level stakes on Dhhamaan and Wee Bunns produces virtual break even on Dhamaan and nice profit on Wee Bunns. At current prices, Llab Nala is the fly in the ointment.
340
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Stoneacre Chris, 5/2 Capriccioso, 7/2 Allium, 12/1 Rightcar Dominic, Stoneacre Sarah, 20/1 Gelert, Stoneacre Paddy, 25/1 Sevenovus, 33/1 Stoneacre Ma ,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Peter Grayson is mob-handed here as he was when his outsider Stoneacre Pat beat STONEACRE CHRIS in a similar event over C&D earlier this month, with Allium and Capriccioso among those behind. With that experience under her belt, Stoneacre Chris should be able to confirm her superiority in a race that looks no stronger.[ |
I would think Peter Grayson has a great chance of winning this. 8 of the 10 runners are his!
We can level stakes back the top 4 here in Stoneacre Chris, Allium, Rightcar Dominic and Capriccioso to the following stakes ratios
£12, £12,£12,£9 on current betfair prices of 4.5, 4.4, 4.3, 7.2
produces profits of £12, £10.26, £9.12, £1.14
Prices indicate Stoneacre Paddy as the one who will muck it all up
BEWARE - 5 furlong maiden!
We are though covering the most likely winners in a race where 4 horses are priced 25/1 or over. The X FILES fans will perhaps see a Peter Grayson conspiracy - let the 50/1 shot win !
LUDLOW
450
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Red Brook Lad, 15/8 General Alarm, 7/2 Beauchamp Oracle, 10/1 Lost Time, 20/1 Wings Of Hope, 25/1 Over Bridge, 33/1 Lord Youky, 50/1 Snitton Salvo .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RED BROOK LAD holds Beauchamp Oracle on a couple of clashes during 2007 and his will to win remains stronger than ever judged on his near miss in a Dorset point earlier this month. General Alarm is a danger, though, especially if left alone up front. |
A hunters chase - not the best betting medium, but for those willing to try and eek out a profit, we have 2 angles - each way on Beauchamp oracle or level stakes bets on Bed BRook Lad and General Alarm
I'll go down the each way route on BEauchamp oracle given the surpises that can occur in hunter chases
NAD AL SHEEBA
515
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Curlin, 4/1 Familiar Territory, 14/1 Engrupido, Imperialista, 33/1 Jet Express, 50/1 Arqaam .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The eagerly awaited UAE debut of last year's US Horse Of The Year CURLIN and, although he's unlikely to be at peak fitness on this first start since winning the Breeders' Cup Classic in October, it'll be a huge surprise if he is beaten in a race where all his rivals are upwards of 6lb out of the handicap. Pick of the remainder is Familiar Territory, who won with a bit in hand over C&D last time and is lightly raced enough to be open to further improvement. |
Fav coming back ater 100+ days off. 6 runners -obvious each way candiate familiar territory - ready to pounce if Curlin doesn't give his running
615
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Cocoa Beach, 7/4 Fiesta Lady, 10/1 Classy-Lady, 20/1 Love Dancing, 25/1 Love Of Dubai, Olympic Glory, 33/1 Patio, Star Of Rosanna, 50/1 Dalkey Girl, 100/1 Miss Clonyn, Swallow Star .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Saeed Bin Suroor, who has won four of the seven runnings of the UAE Oaks, has a very strong hand with COCOA BEACH and Fiesta Lady and it's the former that gets the nod. The visor and the step up to 1m enabled her to reverse previous placings with her stablemate in the UAE 1000 Guineas and this longer trip should enable her to confirm that form. The only real concern is whether the headgear will work as well again. Argentinian Oaks winner Fiesta Lady will go very close if back to her best while the best each-way shot could be Bin Suroor's Love Dancing, who should be suited by this trip.[RY] |
Godolphin saddle the 2 market principles - level stakes leaves near break even on Cocoa Beach and near evens profit on Fiesta Lady.
I wouldn't be swayed into backing the odds on shot - both market leaders are equally capable.
645
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Third Set, 13/2 Law Lord, 10/1 Metropolitan Man, Pride Of Nation, 12/1 Almuraad, Golden Arrow, 14/1 Albabilia, 25/1 Crossing, 33/1 Beckermet, 66/1 The Pirate ,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No reason to oppose Saeed Bin Suroor's THIRD SET, whose dirt run on his UAE debut looks better than it did at the time and he created a favourable impression returned to turf when winning a competitive C&D handicap with more in hand than the margin suggested last time. He's the one to beat on this first run in Listed company. Solid alternatives are thin on the ground and the pick of those playing for places are Metropolitan Man and Almuraad. [RY] |
A straightforward task for Frankie and Third Set - the Spotlight commentary seems to think so.
TAUNTON
430
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Ocean Du Moulin, 11/2 Pacha D´Oudairies, 13/2 This Way, 15/2 Master Overseer, 18/1 Feeling, 20/1 Nothing Is Forever, 25/1 Whitegates Ronnie, 33/1 Levantine, 40/1 Seemarye, 50/1 Loch Vic, Skyler, 66/1 Vehari .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OCEAN DU MOULIN was disappointing on rain-softened ground last time but had been generally progressive before that run, has a clear form advantage and should be very hard to beat back on a sound surface if responding well to a first-time tongue tie. His stablemate, Pacha D’Oudairies, and Master Overseer could be the two to battle for minor honours. [DM] |
Yes, Ocean du Moulin has the old "should be very hard to beat" - Ruby on board , top RPR. , postdata selection, 12 of the 13 tips, but disappointed last time out - Mention of a tongue tie here and the hope the horse responds to it leave me preferring to level stakes back the first 4 , Ocean, Pacha, This, and Master to level stakes.
Using standard £10 stakes again, I will stake using the following ratios
£20 at 1.66 on Ocean du Mouilin
£6 at 9.8 on Master Overseer
£7 at 8.2 on Pacha D'oudaires
£7 at 9.2 on This Way
Leaves £6.80 loss on Ocean, and profits of £19, £16.83 and £23 on the other 3 horses
I'm happy to take a small loss on the favourite in the hope he may labour
3 INTO 1 SYSTEM
With Beggars Cap the only winner and Little Wing a multiple handicap winner running again and losing, we need to stem the flow with this system. Highly frustrating for me that a losing run coincides with opening the system up.
250 LUDLOW - BLAEBERRY
320 LUDLOW - FOXSPUR
400 TAUNTON - FARMERS LAD
500 TAUNTON -ABBEY DAYS
The above are my 3 into 1's today - all over the jumps which is not the best, one in a hunter chase ( I'll get me coat!) , one in a handicap chase. Blaeberry is returning from an absence and looks to have a shout with a small field - 2 outsiders and a hint of a price gap.
Foxspur is at a nice 9/4 favouritism currently for Johnson/Hobbs - get your prayer mats out
FOOTBALL
Those who ignored my Samaras no bet boycott would have got the overs in the Celtic match.
Tonight sees 5 games on the coupon at Ladbrokes.
Getafe at home at 11/10 appeals but I think this is the Spanish Cup so is not an ideal betting medium.
Arsenal LAdies v Everton Ladies tonight ,and if tempers flare there REALLY will be handbags at 10 paces. Arsenal ladies are 2/9 to win, the market is not liquid at all making betting choices difficult. Expectation is for goals and I may venture towards the over 3.5 goals with a view to trading only as over 2.5 goals is odds on.
There will be better betting opportunities I am quite sure!
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