Slight loss on the ASians thanks to Adebayour!. Again, another example of sequencing - revolving around Blackburn's recent draws and the fact they drew with the Arse last time. This ended last night, and laying the draw would have paid off. The half time/full time dutch came in
FOLKSTONE
GOOD TO SOFT
130
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Aux Le Bahnn, 5/2 Another Brother, 9/2 Double Shot, Inghwung, 20/1 Captain Tidds, Funny Fellow, 33/1 Selfcertified, 66/1 Blue Rebel, 100/1 Mysaynoway, 150/1 Mustamad, Political Dissent, Reynards Return, Rockmoor Pond, Surely Keen .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AUX LE BAHNN ran as though needing the race back from another break on his hurdle debut here last time but he ought to be capable of better and confirm the form with Another Brother, especially if the ground dries out. |
A possible dutch on the first 2 here to level stakes although this is a maiden hurdle. It looks a 4 horse race, but we need to check for any 16/1 system bets.
Captain Tidds is currently 14/1 and is the only real market mover. Given the race type , I will try each way on him, mindful that we ideally need to see a replication of this price nearer the off.
More speculative but as a maiden hurdle, these races can sometimes surprise.
230
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Polinamix, 5/4 Treasury Counsel, 12/1 Safari Adventures, 20/1 Silver Serg, 25/1 Knock Boy, 33/1 El Batal .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Polinamix put up a decent effort when giving unavailing chase to Noland here last month but TREASURY COUNSEL should also have plenty to offer at this level after progressing really well over hurdles and is forgiven his second-fence blip on his Kempton chase debut in November.[ |
Mindful of the fact this is 2 mile 5 and a beginners chase, it should, barring falls, concern the front 2, and again, level stakes will produce a small profit on Polinamix and about £6 profit for £10 level stakes on Treasury Counsel.
330
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Wild Ground, 5/1 Kisha King, 12/1 Star Glow, Victree, Walton Way, 14/1 Buckland Gold, 16/1 Another Chat, Rowley Hill, 25/1 Brave Broncho, 33/1 Red Ensign, Sett Aside, Ushnu, 50/1 Carriage Ride, Runshan, 66/1 Flying Druid, Sharbasia .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Wild Ground will be popular after her runaway win last week but there is a slight question mark over her stamina and she may be worth taking on with KISHA KING who represents a yard with a good record of improving purchases out of other stables |
Possible price gapper - 6/4 early morning prices with next rival at 8/1 now Kisha King a non runner -
POSITIVES - top RPR. top TOPSPEED, 12 of 14 tipsters' choices, form 32121, course winner, POSTDATA selection, James Davies has ridden the horse before, no ground concerns - good ground
NEGATIVES - Spotlight is hardly glowing here , citing possible stamina doubts but the October race he mentions was in heavy ground after a lay off. The horse has run the distance before and has been around 2 1/2 miles recently. If handled correctly there is no reason why he should not see out the trip in better ground today with a jockey who knows him well. - 15 runner field -possibility of accidents
A decent enough bet, but 3 miles is a long way to hold my stake! - Worth a chance I think - preference for place only
NEWCASTLE
GOOD TO SOFT - MORNING INSPECTION
Some concern with morning inspection because of frost.
140
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Best Prospect, 5/2 Noble Alan, 7/2 Ignotus, 15/2 Mutawaffer, 16/1 Jamestown Bay, 20/1 Description, Oscar Gogo, Pre Token, Veiled Applause, 25/1 Rainbow Zest, 33/1 Bonneta, 66/1 College Land Boy, 100/1 Ambit, The Real Alydaly, Vie A Deux, 200/1 Classic Act .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ignotus caught the eye of the stewards at Catterick and must be rated better than the bare form, while Noble Alan has shown distinctly above-average form in bumpers and Mutawaffer showed a useful level of form on the Flat. However, BEST PROSPECT, having shaped with a lot of promise on his hurdling debut, is likely to prove hard to beat if none the worse for his fall last time |
Another maiden hurdle and not a good betting prospect, but we can dutch the first 3 , currently priced on betfair at 3.55, 3.55, and 5.1 - I would use £10, £10, £5 leaving returns of £10, £10, £5.
Mutawaffer is the fly in the ointment and i would confirm selections near the off to account for market movers ( none at present)
As things stand ,we have a good chance of selecting the winner from Best Prospect, Ignatus, and Noble Alan
410
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Auntie Kathleen, Predestine, 5/1 Hold The Bid, Silent Bay, Trisons Star, 10/1 Low Reactor, Thorsgill, 14/1 Best China .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few in with a chance but this is best left to AUNTIE KATHLEEN, who finished in front of three of these rivals over C&D last time and who is lightly raced enough to be open to further improvement. [RY] |
Auntie Kathleen each way - yes this is a very tight race but I remember the horse from previous runs and at an each way price should be competitive for at least a place ( caution -7/2, 7/2, 5/1,5/1,5/1 indicates how tight this really is)
440
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Another Promise, 10/1 Corrib Lad, 14/1 Cha Cha Cha Dancer, Kyathos, Polly Whitefoot, Wee Bertie, 20/1 Longdale, Windygate, 25/1 Buckstruther, Chapel Flowers, Sybarite Chief, 33/1 Baie Des Flamands, Ever Special, Fair Spin, Ragador, Thenford Sir, 66/1 Rudaki, The Masters Lesson .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to get away from very smart and versatile chaser ANOTHER PROMISE, who is able to race from a 55lb lower hurdle mark and it'll be disappointing if he can't take care of some ordinary opposition on this reappearance run. Corrib Lad is also better treated over hurdles than fences and looks the chief threat |
Another definite price gapper - now, as that irritating mid Atlantic accented Lloyd Grossman would say, " LEt's look at the evidence"
POSITIVES - price gap replicated in the early market with all other horses priced in double figures
"HARD TO GET AWAY FROM" - trigger words from Spotlight and there's no "ifs and buts" either. -top RPR - 10 from 13 tipsters' choices - postdata selection - knows how to win, form 21151 .
NEGATIVES - 292 day absence to overcome - new jockey Timmy Murphy has never ridden him before - this is an 18 runner field and a handicap hurdle. -
The absence is of some concern to me - why such a lengthy absence - there's no smoke without fire.
This race screams out for each way thievery, but who to chose?
As things stand, Another Promise is worth a chance , ideally place only, and ideally to monitor in running.
There are no immediate ground concerns which should affect coming back from a lay off.
ALL WEATHER -another tricky card.
2 potential price gappers each with evidence for and against - it is really up to you, not me, to weigh up this evidence and decide whether to back or entertain an each way option.
FOOTY
West Brom at 8/13 look worth entertaining this evening although the price indicates a tough affair. Smarting from their loss at the weekend ,there should be goal in this and perhaps an over 2.5 goals trade could offer an over evens alternative.
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