back-lay-trade-horses-football: 14 FEB

Love is in the air, as well as a bit of lovely moolah thanks to some unexpected victories.
At Fairyhouse Almanyan and Lugato shared 1st and 2nd place

Drumconvis was impossible to oppose yet went down by the narrowest of margins at 1.3 - key words - monitor in running - I always try to nick 0.10 points in running especially when a horse is priced so short. The idea is that the horse WILL be competitive at the business end and the odds will reduce to show that. So MR Spotlight - there is no such thing as a "virtual certainty"

At KEmpton, Mr Chocolate Drop won at 5/1 (bigger on BEtfair) which was a huge surprise - he was a rather throw away each way punt in the hope of placing at least.

I tried a couple of lays yesterday - Zacharova lost and the odds went up, naturally, in running so no problems getting the lay neutralised by backing to win stakes back. Interestingly Muttley Maguire came 3rd at 22/1 - flagged up earlier with the caveat that I was to entertain a bet at 16/1 - D'oh! - obviously the horse was quietly fancied to perform coming back from a lay off, and I have no doubt somebody made a tidy wedge from each way betting a 22/1 shot!(bigger , MUCH bigger, on Betfair)

Whistling Straits won but hit 10 in running and 5's intermittently allowing the lay at shorter prices to be backed at higher prices.

Great to get Samuel Charles beaten at 11/8 SP - 2 neck wins did not convince me at all.

Poseidon placed and his odds dropped throughout the day making the 1.76 for the place early doors very appealing with hindsight

ALas the dutch went south, not helped by NElsons Column, 33/1 in the betting forecast opened up at 14/1 and placed - another 16/1 system selection I couldnt highlight when I wrote the blog

Valain placed in the race won by Halla San.

I was pleased with my reading of the Rangers game - half time/Full time bets came in and I backed Rangers at half time as the game stayed 0-0 and cheered them on but the goal wouldn't come !
No problems with Werder Bremen, 2-0 up at half time and 3-0 final score

Sequencing again showed its effectiveness as a betting tool in the Hibs game as Gretna scored away from home after last 3 aways were goalless - infact they scored 2.
Hibs ended their winless sequence as expected by scoring 4, allowing half time/full time and over 2.5 goal bets to come in.
All in all a fantastic day for me, very pleasing.
As you would expect with Valentines day I have my mind on Kelly Brook so this may affect my decisions today

CHEPSTOW - GOOD TO SOFT
220
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Michael Muck, 7/4 Ma Yahab, 9/4 Stolen Moments, 20/1 Freeline Fury, 50/1 Coolavanny Lad, 66/1 Delaneys Triumph .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ma Yahab is arguably the form pick on his fine Doncaster handicap third but it may pay to forgive MICHAEL MUCK his off day last time and give him another chance on a track where he has already won twice, including on his chasing debut

Small field - 3 set to dominate - you know the drill - we can either select one we think will place only, or dutch 2 in the hope the 2 we select will include the winner ( barring accidents enabling the 3 bigger priced horses to become competitive)

The obvious contenders at this stage are Michael Muck and Ma Yahab who can be backed with level stakes and produce a return.
Alternatively back the front 3, leaving a handsome profit on Stolen Moments and slight losses on both Michael Muck and MA Yahab.
We actually get reasonable odds for the place - currently 1.43, 1.51 and 1.9 for Michael, Yahab, and Stolen respectively.
Obvious contender would be the middle man at 1.51 Ma Yahab.

These are observations made now and we don't know if Stolen Moments will come for money or not.
this is a probability race and by either selecting one to place, or backing 2 and leaving one out, we have a 66% chance of victory

250
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Piste Aux Etoiles, 7/2 Crescent Island, 7/1 King Caine, 8/1 Black Ven, 14/1 Mr Excel, 16/1 Krackatara, 20/1 Azione, 25/1 Ronan The Warrior, 33/1 Just Paddy, 40/1 Colonial Jim, 50/1 Leading Article, 66/1 Gemgaballou, 100/1 Radmores Revenge .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PISTE AUX ETOILES has some decent form in France and can make the most of his 4yo allowance. Crescent Island looks the one to beat despite a penalty.[PJ]

novice hurdles have been a bit hit and miss for me - I dutch the 2 market leaders and they come nowhere - I decide to go speculative and the 2 market leaders consent to win!
Here I will back the first 3 using betfair prices and a staking policy of £10,£10,£4 on Piste, Cresent Island and king Kaine -at current prices 2.4, 3.25 and 7.2, this leaves me with break even on Piste aux etoiles .
7 horses are 50/1 or bigger here so the field has immediately reduced to 6 most likely, of which we are covering 3.

KELSO
SOFT GROUND

305 - the straight 8 reduced to 7 but Betfair will still pay out 3 the place.
Strong resolve is in with a shout albeit at around 1.59 to place.
Again those of a disciplined nature will really leave Kelso and its soft ground (likely to get testier through the day) alone

NAD AL SHEEBA

410 - interesting to see Blackcatblackkitten in again as favourite but I think we got the win last time.

600
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Honour Devil, 7/4 Etched, 7/1 My Indy, 10/1 Aquino, Numaany, Royal Vintage, 20/1 Siberian Tiger, 25/1 Ablaan, 33/1 Free Tussy, Paveroc, 66/1 Change Alley, Mutabayen, New Jersey, Palm Court, Toolittleyourlate, 250/1 Choisky,

A chance perhaps to dutch the first 2 against the field, BUT this is a class 3, there are some quality animals in opposition and this is a 16 runner event with a lot of 1's spread throughout the form columns
BUT 8 of the field are 33/1 or bigger and the shortest price outside the front 2 is 9/1 - a big price gap.
My mind will be made up nearer the off I think as any potential market moves become apparent, but as things stand, the dutch of the front 2 is on.

A card at Nad al Sheeba where there are predominantly short priced favourites. On a going day in these quality class races, odds can be generally relied upon. A placepot bet on the market leaders may yield something, but, probability wise, one or 2 of the shorties will disappoint.

SOUTHWELL

315
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Louisiade, 5/1 Local Poet, Stepaside, 7/1 Shifty, 8/1 Music Celebre, 12/1 Lily La Belle, 33/1 Pre Eminance, 50/1 Art Of Being .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Reliability is half the battle with these selling platers and LOUISIADE, who has been in decent form for his new yard this winter, looks the safest option this time. Any market confidence behind Music Celebre would look interesting now dropped to selling company

A seller on the all weather - Gawd help us all!
A possible price gapper - with Stepaside a non runner this markedly improves Louisade's chances. PRice gap remains and the fav is showing , now, as odds on - top RPR, top topspeed, form 1312, placing and consistency on show here - very important for sellers. Won by a neck, 2nd by a head most recently - hardly convincing victories /2nd's
Art of Being and Pre eminance look priced not to get involved reducing the field of those most likely to 5. Can Lily la belle at 16/1 be discounted - if so then reduces the field to 4 most likely.
I'll take the fav on with Local Poet each way (on BEtfair) currently 1.43 to place is reasonable enough given the market pays out for 3 still on Betfair. With narrow margins in Louisade's last 2 races and a penalty to carry today, the horse may be vulnerable ( like Samuel Charles yesterday)
From a betting perspective, I would, for example, back Local Poet to place for ,say , £10 -profit £4.30. I would transfer that £4.30 as stake on the horse to win at 5.1. Effectivel a break even bet if the horse places ( and probability wise he should)

THURLES
SOFT GROUND
My close show biz pal Drumcovis looks to be running again today before his mandatory 20lbs penalty is enforced.
A hard race yesterday in trying to get back Macalpine at 1/3, he's not for me today
Indteads, Condara and Alphazar are the only 2 horses below 10/1 and can be backed each way in opposition to Drumcovis - the bet will not be done if Drumcovis is a non runner which might happen given the soft ground.

430 - mention must go with Willy Mullin's mare Candy Girl ,after Pomme Tiepy and J'y Vole have impressed - priced restrictively ,with Ruby in the saddle, may be worth entertaining a back bet TO MONITOR IN RUNNING, given the soft ground. I am basing the bet purely on the form of Willie Mullin's mares and nothing else.

WOLVES
Another tough card - a couple of shorties but nothing stand out

FOOTY

I read in yesterday's Racing Post that Aberdeen have a min injury crisis - this may have been evident in the weekend drubbing by the Bhoys. More looks on the cards against a Bayern Munich side featuring the likes of Frank" male model" Rubery.
The hope is that BAyern play their strongest 11, and if so, should dominate.Odds of 1.44 in the amtch odds market is very reasonable given Aberdeen's sick notes, and those who want a trading option can do no worse than back Bayern and lay off after they (hopefully) have scored the first goal.
Increasing the odds options include Bayern/Bayern and Draw/Bayern on the half time/full time markets , again level stakes, and, with Celtic's drubbing of Aberdeen on their patch at the weekend, an over 2.5 goals bet/trade looks worth entertaining. At 1.87, very reasonable.
Those more ambitiously minded and back both Luca "offside -AGAIN!" Toni and Miroslav Close to score. If only one scores, you'll get a sligth payout - if both score - it'll be jackpot day.
Odds of 2.04 and 2.26 allow this.

My one hope tonight is to see Frank Ribery on the field - he is superb and will cause havoc if he plays - it will strengthen confidence in my bets

With all the injuries at Aberdeen, this is the obvious match to concentrate on tonight.

I doubt Slavia Prague's opposition in thei domestic league is quite the calibre of the opposition the Spuds have been facing

A straight lay of Slavia looks worthwhile, albeit at slightly big odds. Those with more faith can back Spurs at 1.83 in the straight match odds market.

Again, the half time/full time market is of interest, if we can take the 1.83 match odds as an accurate reflection of the chances.
Spurs/Spurs , Draw/Spurs, Draw/Draw represents a reasonable bet - to level stakes, we get a nice payout on the Draws and break even on Spurs /Spurs

Shade of odds on normally means a tight game with the edge going to the odds on side. As long as they don't concede either half (to no reply) we have a good chance

A look at Slavia's recent 6 matches and they don't seem full of goals, never scoring more than 1 ,so if Spurs can get a goal then the hope is they will draw worst case.

MUG PUNTER ACCA

I went for one last night but didn't feel too confident to share it
Laid Livorno v Milan, backed Werder Bremen, laid Helsingborg v PSV and laid Gretna v Hibs.
It came off well, and the key to victory was laying Livorno who snuck a 1-1 draw at Milan!

If we take Bayern as a give ( and there's no reason why they shouldn't win) then back them with a lay of Slavia, we can pump the odds up to 1.67