15 FEB

Ribery, Ribery, wherefore art thou Ribery? was the question on most Bayern backers' minds yesterday as Aberdeen held Bayern to a draw at Pittodrie and so went my half time/full time and mug punter acca. Where was Frank Ribery - I can only assume he was injured - a world class player missing and the one man I wanted to see last night(and I'm sure the ladies wanted to glimpse at his Ian Dowie like good looks)

At least I bet in the knowledge that there is no such thing as a sure thing and within the constraints of a predertermined staking plan - as I'm sure you do too!

At least the Spuds didn't disappoint for those of you who took the option to back them at a tast 1.83 (1.73 at the off!) - guess who scored - Berbatov and Keane! Well I did get Miroslav Klose for Bayern yielding a marginal profit as he was backed along with Luca"offside"Toni.

Whatever angle you took in the Spuds game you would have profitted.

Ma Yahab won which was good for the place only bet. Stolen Moments so nearly obliged for those willing to level stake the 3 main contenders and leave a hefty profit on that one.

THe dutch was undone by Black Ven and I was angry with myself - the only other horse under double figure odds should have been included into any analysis of the race - sloppy!

BLackcatblackkitten won again but alas I thought this would be a more difficult assignment. SO near with the fun placepot as favs obliged or placed apart from the first race which was 11/4 the field.

Local Poet traded at 1.4 in running in a ding dong battle (so the odds told me!) with Louisiade who eventually won - A break even bet for me there on Local Poet who did as much as I could ask.

With Drumcovis a non runner m each way bet was voided (by me!). CAndy GIrl lost - either the ground or the horse is not as good as J'yvole and Pomme Tiepy

FAKENHAM - GOOD GROUND

225
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Oscar Park, 4/1 Contact Dancer, 10/1 Delightful Cliche, 11/1 Autumn Red, 12/1 Felix Rex, 14/1 Menelaus, 100/1 Homeleighwildchild .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OSCAR PARK would have to win this in some style for it to be worth his while taking up a Royal & SunAlliance engagement next month but he had shaped pretty well until departing on his chasing debut and is given another chance. Felix Rex is the other to hold that big-race entry but Contract Dancer is nominated as the danger because of his chasing experience.

It would seem that if Oscar Park stays on his feet he wins but recent form of a fall and unseating rider in 2 of the last 3 hardly inspires confidence. Price gap has increased in the early market and anyone wanting to side with Oscar Park who, positively, did draw clear of other horses before unseating, will hope he stays on his feet to justify his big entry at Cheltenham. I will chance this time with the longer trip hopefully in the horse's favour, and with the fact the horse HAS to really win I hope this will be enough.

There are those who see the form and think - trust this one over 3 miles - you're having a giraffe! Well the odds for the next 3 are currently 8/1, 8/1 and 10/1 so a crafty shilling on each will cover any more falls from the favourite.

255
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Gansey, 9/4 Georgian King, 9/2 Rock Wren, 7/1 Johnny Bissett, 10/1 By George, 20/1 Lord Appellare, Rathmulen, Shampers, 100/1 Lucky Pearl .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROCK WREN left his previous efforts miles behind when second at Leicester last time and, with the form working out well, is given the chance to show that wasn't a fluke. Gansey has to be feared back down in class, while Georgian King is another plausible contender judged on his bumper form and his reputation at home.[

9 in contention here, 2 at 66/1 and 100/1, 1 at 25/1 which we can dismiss (I hope) bringing the field down to 6 runners, 3 of whom will place. Rock Wren for me looks placed to place! Always concern when you see the Walsh /Nicholls combo but Rock Wren ,3rd provisional betting forecast fav, could be competitive

LINGFIELD

215
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Boy On A Swing, 100/30 Silver Waters, 11/2 Rowan Rio, 9/1 Might Be Magic, 16/1 Nowzdetime, 40/1 Malt Empress, 50/1 Code Violation, 100/1 Honest Yankee .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BOY ON A SWING (nap) sets a clear standard on form, is likely to appreciate the step up to 1m2f and should be hard to beat. Silver Waters looks the most dangerous opponent and the one to note in the market is the newcomer Rowan Rio

The striaght 8 here with 3 perceived outsiders narrowing the field to 5. With a short priced favourite we get reasonable odds on the other contenders and with Silver waters now showing at 11/2 he could place at least or take advantage if the favourite misfires.
NOTE - this is a maiden race.

355
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Rapidity, 3/1 Oberlin, 9/2 Rockfield Tiger, 11/2 Vettorenjoy, 7/1 Hucking Hero, 14/1 Miss Mujanna, 16/1 Hansinger .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The front-runner Rapidity has strong claims seeking his fourth win this month and Oberlin is interesting off an appealing mark on his handicap debut but marginal preference is for ROCKFIELD TIGER, who produced a strong finishing burst to win on his reappearance over C&D last week.

To lay or not to lay? Not quite the 1/2 and shorter he went off last time, Rapidity is reappearing under a penalty again in search of the 4 timer in another handicap. Note this time the close proximity of other s price wise and the fact Rapidity is reappearing as an odds against shot. All clues that today may be the day for the lay , having called it too early last time out. Step up in grade and triple penalty may stop Rapidity today and I hope this is the race where he succumbs .

SANDOWN
205
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Squadron, 5/2 Crack Away Jack, Sonning Star, 14/1 Alaghiraar, 16/1 Cavalry Twill, Good Effect, 33/1 Diego Velasquez, Title Deed, 40/1 Pearl .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Squadron will appreciate the return to lesser grade but will not find things easy under maximum penalty, particularly against Sonning Star and CRACK AWAY JACK, who looks the type to improve again

The mistake I made with yesterdays dutch was evident - I ignored a horse under 14/1. This time there are 3 most likely here and in Squadron we have a fav that perhaps we can take on.
As things stand, with Betfair prices currently 3.05, 3.8 and 4.2 we can back again to level stakes and break even on a penalty carrying Squadron.
Yes another juvenile novices hurdle which I've been having a head scratcher with - we have 3 rivals in Alaghiraar and Cavalry Twill and Goof Effect and hopefully our 3 can run to their prices with no immediate ground concerns.
WOLVES
Has been devilishly difficult of late. I have managed to find winners via my 3 into 1 system, albeit at restrictive odds but, hey, a winner's a winner.



FOOTY
I have been following Le Havre with a passing interest and at 9/10 away from home the may be worth support - they certainly have a chance tonight and probably a lay of Gueugnon would be better for me to cover the draw in a French ligue 2 game whose teams I am not familiar with .

Ajax when odds on at home are always worth a 2nd glance regardless of price (here 1/6) so we can look at getting the old weapons out to increase the match odds and give us a chance to boost profits.
SParta are coming on the back of 2 straight home defeats by a single goal. Away from home they've won one and lost one and scored in both games.
Ajax have won all bar one of their last 4 home matches( the loss came to PSV) - they have scored 2 or more on 3 of those occasions which augurs well tonight.
Interesting head to heads scream over 2.5 goals tonight - Ajax have put 11 past Sparta in their last 2 home encounters with away results 2-2 and 3-0.

A look into over 2.5 goals and it's trading at 1.4! Unbelievable scenes! If we can assume this is correct, then a venture into over 3.5 goals might be wise - 1.9 is better odds and with the possibillity of trading this is a speculative but wiser choice I feel at better odds.
Another tradeable option is any unquoted on the Correct score market, BUT this presumes Ajax will score 4 or Sparta will score 2 to Ajax's 3.

Rather than dutch the half time/full time markets ( those with greater caution may want to) a straight back of Ajax at 1.65 to win both halves may be a good way to enhance the 1.21 odds.