Nice profit onWHere's Johnny yesterday - even backing 4 horses can still turn a decent profit andcover certain eventualities as long as the horses run as their prices indicate. Another 3 into 1 system bet undone by jumps racing as Massini Sunset unseated its rider - naturally we don't get this with flat selections as was seen with Morbick. Montjford disappointed in a maiden won by Yes Mr President. Awesome light was unplaced in the maiden and the dutch on the 2 market leaders was the correct choice with hindsght.
Both Mick macmacgoole and Fabulous JEt lost - I didn't lay them alas but didn't back them either.
Yet again Nantes continue their excellent set of results with an away win - I wish I'd put them up
Although the City match was an imponderable for me, I did dabble in the under 2.5 goals market for about 15 minutes - sufficient to back at 1.63 adn lay off at 1.5 and lower for a £30 green screen. Just in time as Everton scored twice meaning the under 2.5 goals price shot up to 4 and over. THe discipline of green screening comes to the fore
Good to firm - some say that firm ground is as bad as soft regarding its affect on certain horses.
A selling handicap hurdle for lady riders kicks off the card - no thanks!
A totally unappealing card from a betting perspective with a number of wide open races .
LEICESTER
220
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Nikola, 11/8 Fandani, 12/1 Barati, 25/1 Colemanstown, 50/1 Tiffin Deano .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Effectively a match between NIKOLA and Fandani. Preference for Nikola isn't that strong but he has consistently shown a decent level of form over fences this season and, with Fandani needing to show he can hold it together jumping wise, the day may have come for the selection to end his frustrating run of places. [MCu] |
Again it would seem that quicker ground may be the sticking point with some horses today.
Potential dutch in the 220 but rewards versus outlay are minimal unless you want to leave a slight loss on the market leader and potentially greater profit onFandani
350
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Sheriff Roscoe, 9/4 Cathedral Rock, 11/2 Double Intruder, 13/2 Burren Legend, 25/1 Desert Tommy, 50/1 Ellies Horse, 100/1 Clockers Corner .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHERIFF ROSCOE (nap) sets a decent standard on his latest C&D form in a slightly better-contested race and, with a hurdles win on good to firm showing the forecast ground should be fine, clearly looks the one to beat. Cathedral Rock is next best. |
A 4 horse race at present with 3 we can , I hope, dismiss as perceived outsiders.
"clearly the one to beat" proclaims Spotlight re Sheriff Roscoe - disqualified in his last race. What concerns me is the 2 wins prior to this - have we missed the horse already as a betting proposition?
A 2 mile 7 furlong novices chase on quick ground - Cathedral Rock, Burren legend and double intruder are all backable to level stakes against the favourite who, while I cannot dismiss him out of hand, might have done all his winning already.
LINGFIELD
300
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Money for either of the newcomers in what doesn't look to be the strongest of maidens will be significant but this could go to FLY IN JOHNNY, who wasn't at his best when last seen over 5f but who had previously shown ability over this trip and is bred to handle this surface. |
No early prices to go on, just what the Racing Post provides. The tips are interesting as they are spread throughout the runners indicating the potential for a speculative each way punt. We have the dead 8 here as I write and with 7 runners priced between 3/1 and 10/1 we can hopefully avoid the obvious and chance a mid division horse. Martha at 11/2 betting forecast price is just outside the top 3 but not priced as an outsider and is worthy , I feel, of each way support.
This is an open maiden so those with a gambling instinct could look at even bigger priced horses in what looks a wide open affair
The cards today are particularly difficult with fancied runners who have had their fair share of wins and who may be slightly vulnerable ( winning sequences always end) Quick ground at Catterick and Leicester, coupled with big fields and 5/1 favs indicate a no betting day really on the horses.
I am even a little concerned that Sherrif Roscoe might win, given the quicker ground may be a hindrance to other horses.
FOOTBALL
ALl lower league stuff domestically with a smattering of German, Italian and Franch football, and it is with Juventus v Torino that I may have an angle into a bet.
Juve have not lost to Torino in their previous 6 encounters. I must say that the head to heads are not really relevant as they go back a number of years and a lot has changed in the interim.
This is a local derby -Juve are not firing on all cylinders but are home tonight. The market has priced them up as 4/7 favourites and it is from the price, more than anything, that I will take my cue. I will chance another venture into the halftime/fulltime market with Juve/Juve ; Draw/Juve; Draw/Draw (as it is a local derby)
I have engineered the bet to break even on the Juve/Juve result and get a nice profit on any other results.
If Torino score to no reply in the first half the bet will be an automatic loser. I'm hoping not.
Stuttgart are at home to Carl Zeiss JEna this evening and the 1/4 quote tells us that a home victory is the most likely outcome - not only that but there should be goals.
Recent results for both sides back this up - Jena have been conceding 2+ goals alarmingly and Stuttgart, especially at home ( Hertha Berlin's win not withstanding) have scored 2+ goals
The market, alas ,agrees with me and has priced up over 2.5 goals at 1.52.
NOTE - this match is not in running so there is no trading opportunity available.
1.52 is reasonable enough and increases the 1.31 available in the match odds market.
It may be worth chancing the Stuttgart/Stuttgart halftime/fulltime at 1.92 - a bigger profit. Personally I always include a cover bet on Draw/Stuttgart but in this case may leave a break even on the latter bet with profit on the Stuttgart double.
The fact there are no head to heads leads me to believe Jena have recently been promoted and their status as 2nd bottom backs this up.
All in all, a leave alone day I think on the horses with, perhaps, the Stuttgart game the only one I have confidence in (yet am reminded that Galatasary lost , when 1/8 to win, to a bottom placed side at the weekend so we can't discount anything!)
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