Captain Tidds was a speculative punt in the hope that he was a market mover but he didn't place
Polinamix won. Wild Ground won well, as did Ignotus.
I was disappointed with 2 selections yesterday - having already pointed out the tight price market in the 410 I still went for a selection when the better option was to lay the favourite given the tightness of the race. Aunty kathleen unplaced there. Similarly , Another Promise - let's look again at the negatives "NEGATIVES - 292 day absence to overcome - new jockey Timmy Murphy has never ridden him before - this is an 18 runner field and a handicap hurdle. -" - plenty there for a short price lay - new jockey -nearly a year off - I did say it screamed out for each way thievery and should have stayed with that position given the nice prices available.
West Brom decided not to score. I suppose a bit better research was in order given the article in the Post about Bryan Robson's current pressures and the Blade's obvious change of strategy in NOT LOSING this one.
FAIRYHOUSE
(Soft - Heavy in places)
345
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Blaze Trailer, Double Attraction, 4/1 Roundofapplause, 6/1 Almanyan, Lugato, 10/1 Liffey Side, 12/1 Erritt Lodge, 14/1 Ballymac Grey, Snow Tempest.
A wide open race if the betting forecast is a good indicator. I'll chance Almanyan and Lugato each way just outside the front 3. 4/1 the field in the early market is indicative of a tight race so a slightly speculative approach can be taken
415
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Drumconvis, 13/2 Mhilu, 8/1 Orimed Des Ifs, 10/1 Flamenco Prince, 12/1 Freemantle Doctor, 14/1 Free Speech, Origine De Sivola, Soft Spoken, 16/1 Fabien, Selection Box, Tailor Bill, 20/1 Buachaill On Eirne, Macra Na Feirme, Symphonist, 25/1 Druid´s Chair, Winter Star ,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DRUMCONVIS is impossible to oppose. Set to be raised 20lb after winning with contemptuous ease over 2m3f at Naas on Saturday, he is able to compete with just a mandatory 6lb extra. Barring a mishap of the type that proved the undoing of his stablemate Psycho when set to trot up at Leopardstown on Sunday, he looks a virtual certainty. The case in his favour is underlined by the fact that runner-up Dashing George can be regarded as a good current yardstick (it was his fourth successive time to finish in the first two), and this trip looks ideal for the former point-to-point winner who found 2m inadequate when fifth to Major Sensation at Leopardstown.\n I'll rue this but I will rely on Spotlight here and back Drumconvis accordingly, with the caveat that I will monitor in running KEMPTON 620 BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Maraagel, 9/2 Wizby, 5/1 Mr Chocolate Drop, 13/2 Montzando, 7/1 Lawdy Miss Clawdy, Tang, 9/1 Baba Ghanoush, 20/1 Coastal Breeze, 40/1 Doctor Ned .
2 horses, at this early stage at 20/1 and 40/1 reduce the field of likely candidates to 7, 3 of whom will place. I will opt for Mr Chocolate Drop each way here -he looks likely to be threatening for a place at least LEICESTER - Good to Soft 200 BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Zacharova, 7/1 Can´t Buy Time, The Ring, 10/1 Massini Sunset, Molostiep, 12/1 Gerrard, 16/1 Donald Will Do, Kentmere, Solarias Quest, 20/1 Et Maintenant, 25/1 Easter Present, Muttley Maguire, 33/1 Parish Oak, Thenford Flyer, 40/1 Olival, 100/1 Log On Intersky .
Potential price gapper here in Zacharova POSITIVES - price gap maintained in early market - TOP RPR - Postdata selection - 8 from 14 tipsters - NEGATIVES - big field of 16 runners - won in a small field last time out over longer distance - running under a penalty I'm going to lay Zacharova this time - in 2 starts prior to the last where he got his act together his jumping was none too consistent, so a lay to monitor in running and back at a higherprice is my call here. I can see an error somewhere. A note for Muttley Maguire - 25/1 in the betting forecast, currently 16/1 in the live market - could be a stable gamble based on the fact he's coming back from a 807 day absence and won twice and came 2nd in his last 5 races prior to that. All the hall marks of a potential good run? I'll ned to see that 16/1 nearer the off but he's the only one with a significant price move at this stage. 400 BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Whistling Straits, 11/2 Balau, 6/1 Euryalus, 8/1 Cash In Hand, 10/1 Vic´s Last Chance, 12/1 Cullen Road, 14/1 Highland Vasco, 20/1 Mister Bloom, 33/1 Present Moment, Quarry Road, 50/1 Pagans Dancer, 100/1 Springwood White, Story Arms .
Favourites in hunter chases are always worth laying I think - a debutant over these fences. With so many presumed no hopers, each way candidates ( rather than laying) include Balau and Euryalus LINGFIELD 140 Samuel Charles Record in AW claimers over the years is an impressive 141241521221151 and in good order at present winning his last two starts; no problem with conditions, stable going well and likely to go well once more. From a sequencing perspective, Samuel Charles has not posted 3 consecutive wins. His last 2 wins have both been by a neck -hardly convincing. With the money coming for Pab Special, he is another lay for me today to back at a higher price in running. MUSSELBURGH 150
With Middleton Dene out ,this opens the doors wide open for Logans Run and he is priced accordingly. poseidon looks the obvious each way candidate still with 8 runners. Better payout at the bookies if he places, currently 1.76 in the place market. Probably a better place only bet which pays more than the win (1.4) on Logans Run ( will Jenny Aggutter make an appearance in that revealing futuristic get up? - hope so!) 220 BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Akarem, Sutherland Belle, 100/30 Compromiznotension, 6/1 Marsam, 15/2 Mutawaffer, 9/1 Luna Landing, 20/1 Grand Opera, 33/1 Nelsons Column, 40/1 Karaburan, 50/1 Montchara, 100/1 Filey Buoy, Musical Giant, 150/1 Mr Twins, 200/1 Soul Angel .
I'll chance backing Akarem, Sutherland Belle and Compromiznotension to level stakes on BEtfair - returns about evens . With Mutawaffer out, Marsam is the fly in the ointment 350 BETTING FORECAST: Evs Halla San, 5/1 Valain, 13/2 Folk Tune, 8/1 Stainley, 10/1 Masafi, 12/1 Soubriquet, 16/1 Calculaite, Pilca, 25/1 Film Festival .
Foe me, Valain and Folk tune each way - the only 2 horses not in double figures A different complexion today, with some lays and speculative each way plays. Probably too many selections today. If I was to be picky today, then Poseidon to place in the 150 Musselburgh and the dutch in the 220 Musselburgh would be my strongest plays ( the latter may change with any market move, especially with the "fly in the ointment" horse The lays I'll do in running, not as straight lays as I think during the race the horses may meet trouble, either from opponents (on the flat) or the obstacles ( on the jumps) |
FOOTY
Some UEFA Cup matches tonight may offer some betting opportunities. The majority of the games are priced to be very tight affairs and these are best left alone.
Werder Bremen interest me at home against Braga in a game which they should comfortably win - the price of 3/10 assumes this too. The gulf in class should ensure victory and the potential for a half time/full time Werder Bremen bet. They just need to score one in the first half to no reply for the bet to overcome the first hurdle and then win the 2nd half for the bet to come to fruition.
Panathinaikos won 1-0 at the weekend at home in a game they were priced up at 1/5 on. Does this offer hope for Rangers? I think it may . In fact, Panathinaikos have found it difficult to score of late domestically. The last time they scored 2 was against the mighty ,erm, Asteris Tripolis, and ,yes they have scored in each of their last 6, but only the one goal. In a weak league ,for a giant like Panathinaikos not to be beating the likes of Veria convincingly may mean there is some problem in the attacking 3rd.
Rangers are easily ahead of a lot of the opposition the Greeks have faced recently and have home advantage. I'll back them in the match odds market at half time if 0-0. This may be tight early on but Rangers, as has become a habit in Europe, have had a tendency to score late. Draw/Rangers and Draw/Draw may offer some value ( the more cautious and the cautiously optimistic may like to include Rangers/Rangers into the dutch in the half time/full time market)
In Scotland Hib's sequence of 4 losses on the trot was ended with a draw at Dundee United - a sequence I wish I had seen at the weekend. With no win in their last 6, and priced at 2/5 against Gretna , this is an ideal time to break the winless sequence they are on - playing at home as well.
Gretna have been unable to score in their last 3 away matches - another sequence that might end? If so then over 2.5 goals looks a decent bet. The most recent encounter ,though, was 0-1 to Hibs at Gretna but was this just home advantage helping Gretna?
I hope the Hibs lack of confidence with the recent run doesn't affect them tonight. I am going purely on price here (2/5) that the winless sequence looks like it is priced to end tonight
For a £34 outlay (example stake) we can back the half time/full time in the following staking
£16, £10, £8 on Hibs/Hibs, Draw/Hibs and Draw/Draw at odds of 2.14, 4.9, 8.2 and break even on the first bet but profit nicely if the latter 2 come in. Draw/Draw is included because of Hibs recent form
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