30/1

The in running trade on Hora worked a treat despite the horse losing - odds plummeted and I got out at 1.12 with a green screen thanks to the green up function on Fairbot. No problems with Numide for in running trading either. Stop the Show won which was very wellcoming although I only got involved in the place only market - d'oh!

Again, the key words were in running trading with Kanisorn who was backable at 1.7 yet sustained a price of 1.3 or less in running BUT still lost. So these words are important - horses like this are not straight bets for me - yes I envision a good run but don't have faith in the win ( but not enough to lay the horse!)

Haldibari came 4th in ground described as "heavy" and you know what I think of heavy - but I must put my faith in the Racing Post's morning website.

The dutch on Robin de Sherwood and Marcus came in as both battled out the finish.

Well it was "fill yer boots" time in the Arsenal match and I was almost joking when I said that Saturday's result would be replicated. Personally I backed Adebayour to score , and the odds of 2.02 almost shouted out that this was a shoe in! And the boy got the first goal. Arsenal half time/full time came in, BUT with the over 2.5 goal bet, I backed at 1.81 - the first goal came in 40 minutes and the price on overs was 1.85. The second goal came in and the price on overs was 1.83. I chickened out to be honest and created a red screen with £6 loss. It was the 40 minutes taken to break down Newcastle that made me uncomfortable. For those of greater faith than me, the 3rd goal arrived.

I also did a mug punter accumulator yesterday by laying Macclesfield away to MK Dons, laying Benin, and laying Mali, and backing Bayern at 1.17 and backing Arsenal - another evens bet , but the MK Dons decided to go 1-0 down to make the ticker tick a bit quicker!

I must thank the Racing Post for their analysis of the Ivory Coast game as ,backed by their argument, I backed Ivory Coast at 2.66. This game had the conspiracy theorists out as a draw would suffice for both teams , and 0-0 was only 5 with the draw around evens. This meant that odds elsewhere were over inflated.
Drogba scored early and odds went down to 1.58 and I traded out!
So, if you're taken by an article in the Racing Post and you think " yes " he puts up a good argument for that bet, then have a go ! I was loathe to get involved in the African Nations yesterday but glad I did.

EXETER - RACING POST SAYS GOOD TO SOFT

2 novice hurdles start the cards but these have not been happy hunting grounds for me the last few days - I suppose the word " novice" is the part I neglected to factor in previously.

Well the first race has a potential dutch between the 2 market leaders Bantry Bere and Bertie May - those with confidence in the market can back both to level stakes at current prices of evens and 3/1. I will stay clear today and see how this dutch may or may not win.

220
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Leamington Lad, 9/2 Kornati Kid, 11/2 Petroupetrov, 9/1 Go Johnny Go, 10/1 Boulevardofdreams, Galantos, Go West, The Abbots Habit, 14/1 Dancing Dasi, 16/1 Cullahill, 20/1 Devito, 25/1 Historic Place, 33/1 Kristoffersen, Men Of Destiny, Supreme Piper .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Leamington Lad ran a cracker at Doncaster on Saturday but these very different conditions don't look as suitable. Petroupetrov did well at Fakenham last time and should be suited by this stiffer track, but KORNATI KID is also in good shape at present and should have more to come.[EMW]

Current prices point to Leamington LAd and kornati Kid at 10/3 with Petroupetrov 3rd at 7/1. What interests me here is the big prices on a majority of the opposition - 4 horses are at 50/1 or bigger, 6 are 16/1 or bigger. Provided the front 3's price is replicated nearer the off I will dutch them to level stakes and hope the winner comes from the 1st 3 in the market. I am very aware of the David Pipe horse under Timmy Murphy - Boulevardofdreams and hope an 800+ day absence does for him.

320
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Theatre Diva, 5/1 Malakiya, 11/2 Manhattan Boy, 8/1 Hydromatic, Scaramouche, 12/1 Silver Sister, 16/1 Another Late Night, 100/1 Tanners Den .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THEATRE DIVA ended last season on an upward curve and will be hard to beat if she can reproduce her best form now that she goes chasing. The others all have something to prove

Potential price gapper here -replicated in the early market - form of 2121 is very consistent - positives - distance winner

Negatives - 366 day absence to overcome - any reason behind the scenes for this? It's great to see Paddy Brennan onboard - one of the next stars of jumps racing, and against my better judgement, I'll back today and monitor in running.

350
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Josear, 4/1 Sou´Wester, Zorro De La Vega, 11/2 Silver Inngot, 8/1 Eluvaparty, 10/1 Whatcanisay, 12/1 Nemetan, 16/1 Elegant Clutter, 25/1 Saby, 50/1 Opal Ridge .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Last-time-out winners Zorro De La Vega and Josear will rightly have their supporters but SOU'WESTER is still dangerously well treated over fences and may be able to bounce back from a slightly lacklustre effort. Eluvaparty is another to consider at a bigger price

If we can safely dismiss Opal Ridge, Saby, Elegant Cutter and Eluva party the 4 horses biggest priced in the early market, we are left with 6.

Now the Betfair market is interesting.
Souwester - 4.8
Josear - 5.5
Zorro de la vega - 5.5
What can I say - 6.8
Silver ingot - 8.8

£10 example stakes on all of the above leaves £3 loss on Souwester and escalating profits on the rest.
Nemetan is the fly in the ointment as is Eluvaparty.

I' simply playing the probability game and basing my bet only on prices not form or jockeys or anything else. Using a predetermined stake spread across these bets I don't care if it doesn't come in, but with 5 covered we have a decent chance. (NB - these are current betfair prices )

LEICESTER - SOFT - ODD HEAVY PATCHES

300

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Crofters Lad, 3/1 Bold Policy, 7/2 Clishmaclaiver, 5/1 Edgeover, 7/1 Just A Thought, 20/1 O´Sogood, 50/1 No Telling, Shampers .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some promising types do battle and the one that could come out on top is CLISHMACLAIVER, who produced a couple of very promising efforts in bumpers and is bred to appreciate this switch to hurdling. Bold Policy, Edgeover and Crofters Lad won't make it easy, though

The straight 8 here allows for place only/each way betting. 3 perceived outsiders brings the potential winners down to 5. Bold Policy at 1.6 to place is a good probability bet with potentially only 2 to beat to place.

(NOTE - another dutchable race - I would leave favourite out of my calculations as the prices indicate a very competitive race and a profit can be accrued in any of the other 5 contenders win)

LINGFIELD
225

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Bussell Up, 11/8 Salt Of The Earth, 8/1 Extreme North, 20/1 Flemish Art, 33/1 Hucking Harrier, Rossini Byline, Tiara Boom De Ay, 100/1 Judge ´n Jury ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Salt Of The Earth starting to become expensive to follow, preference is for BUSSELL UP who had the misfortune to come up against a potentially useful sort at Kempton

11/8 favs can be dutched to level stakes

NEWCASTLE - GOOD TO SOFT

Like the football team, I can't see myself scoring a winner at Newcastle today

WOLVERHAMPTON

750
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Sawwaah, 6/4 Glenridding, 8/1 Meditation, 12/1 United Nations, 20/1 Subadar, 33/1 Inspirina .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a shoot out between SAWWAAH and Glenridding with the remainder all having question marks over them. It is hard not to have been impressed by the manner in which Sawwaah has won his last two races and he gets the nod.

Sawwaah looks to be a non runner, and by default I will back Glenridding without his main market rival.

NOTE - the 3 into 1 system which I have been featuring in the SYSTEM BLUEPRINTS section of www.whatreallywinsmoney.com is currently 7 from 9 winner or 8 from 9 winners I forget. This is after a very tricky period -the excitement I had in this system is returning with recent results so do look out and monitor this system - 5 from 5 last 3 days at reasonable prices.

FOOTBALL

The Arse done tremendous yesterday. The Boro Wigan match only managed 1 goal as predicted. In fact all of the relegation dogfights finished under 2.5 goals - a sign of things to come in this critical part of the season where these teams will want to doggedly defend to ensure goals are not scored against them.

First matches of interest occur in the African nations. Egypt face the mighty Zambians today in a game they should win comfortably. Ditto Cameroon at 1/12 ( remember the last 1/12 side - could only scramble a 1-0!)

Cameroon are 1.42 to win both halves and is the involvement I will probably have. They are 2 to get over 3.5 goals and this may be a tradeable option but I am reminded of overall underachievement from these heavily odds on shots.

MUG PUNTER ACCA ALERT

Yes folks, these mug punters acca's keep coming in - 5 from 5 in recent times - I haven't shared some with you out of embarrasment that my mug punter tendencies will go all Derby County! But here's another for your amusement
The success in yesterday's acca came because I avoided the obvious by puting a straight win only bet on MK dons, instead I laid Macclesfield and covered the draw (1-1) - MK Dons have been on shaky ground of late but I did expect a fight back on home soil BUT was not confident in the win - I expected them to avoid defeat.

1	Cameroon v Sudan (Backing Cameroon @ 1.12)
2	Egypt v Zambia (Laying Zambia @ 9.59)
3	W Bremen-A v Stuttgart (Laying W Bremen-A @ 14.86)
4	Rot-Weiss Essen v Hamburg (Laying Rot-Weiss Essen @ 13.68)
5	Chelsea v Reading (Laying Reading @ 32.24)
6	Man Utd v Portsmouth (Backing Man Utd @ 1.24)

6-Folds
	Selections	Odds*	Stake	Potential win
	1,2,3,4,5 and 6	1.85	£49.00	£41.65

Funnily enough my worry is the Man Utd game - laying Portsmouth instead will produce a 1.53 pay out. I have included cup games where the Bundesliga teams should avoid defeat.

Werder Bremen (A) v Stuttgart - over 2.5 goals at 1.67 looks reasonable.

Will Reading be as difficult to break down for Chelsea as it was for Man Utd - 77 minutes it took United and that was with the help of Rooney and Ronaldo.

I can create a bet here in the correct score market, by backing 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0.

This has a reasonable chance of coming in. I can't see Reading score 2 as they have previously.

For £10 level stakes, returns are about £7.

Derby v City I will leave alone - instinct tells you a straight lay of Derby is the call but City were woeful against the Blades.

The last 3 games between West Ham and Liverpool have all ended 2-1 and as my close showbiz pal harry Hill would say " What are the chances of that happening?"

Liverpool half time/full time at 3.4 is worthy of laying I think. I can't really get an angle in here to be honest even despite the 2-1 sequence ending - the price is too big for laying.

Juve v Inter if in running looks a good under 2.5 goal trade for the first 1/2 hour of the match - this should be tight early doors.

FOOTBALL Arsenal v Newcastle leaps off the page , BUT surly Newcastle will have learnt something from Saturday's performance? If we look for a straight replication of Saturday's game then Arsenal half time/full time at 1.96 coupled with draw/Arsenal at 4.4 could cover most likely eventualities. Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 and Adebayour to score at 2.06 look my plays in this , BUT I wouldn't be surprised if Newcastle react to Saturday's game Midlesbrough v Wigan has historically been tight so I will opt for under 2.5 goals. There has only really been 1 goal in it recently.