26/1

Nice win for Blue Bajan started the day off on the right foot and a nice win for Contra Mundum closed the day
Big Bucks won - did you chose him in the toss of a coin race? The obvious each way horse King of the swingers placed but Marmooq unplaced. Fajr was the favourite in the "probability race" and was laid accordingly and was beaten. Confidentiality at last succumbed as I expected to one of my selections so a decent return. The half time/full time for Ivory Coast came in well as did the over 2.5 goals.

Nigeria netted but couldn't bring home the money alas in the first 0-0 draw of the African Cup.

Another Saturday means selectivity as this is booky benefit day!

CHELTENHAM - GOOD TO SOFT - HIGH CLASS FIELDS

With the high quality on show today, there is a prevalence of 1's in the form column which tells you all you need to know about the competitiveness of some of the racing. This isn't helped by some of the races being Scoop 6's - ie tough enough to be selected Scoop 6 races!

315
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Franchoek, 15/8 Tatenen, 9/2 Serabad, 7/1 Squadron, 16/1 I Predict A Riot, Mark Of Love, 33/1 Distiller, 40/1 Kanonkop, 100/1 He´s Mine Too, Master Halling, 200/1 Kassuta .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Franchoek is not passed over lightly but this tough staying sort had a scare from TATENEN and Serabad at Chepstow and they should be able to put him under hard pressure again this time. Tatenen is also open to improvement on this second start for Paul Nicholls and that could see the Chepstow placings reversed.[RA]

An interesting betting forecast here putting down 2 against the field in Franchoek and Tatenen. We can look at the tiers here
TIER 1 - Franchoek and Tatenen and, at a stretch Serabad
TIER 2 - Squadron, I predict a riot and Mark of love
TIER 3 - Distiller onwards

The gap between the first 2 in the market and the rest of the field has increased in the early prices.

With the front 2 at 11/10 and 9/4, we can back to level stakes as long as one wins. With this option we have Ruby Walsh and Choc Thornton on our side - not bad!. Franchoek is a course winner which I think is important given the intricacies of Cheltenham.
Concern though by mention of Serabad's close proximilty to Franchoek on previous running and his 3 lb better off in today's contest
So dutching is an option here albeit to relatively low returns.

With so many perceived outsiders there is an each way option and with Serabad the only horse in TIER 1 apart from the 2 mentioned, he is the ovious alternative each way and priced around 10/1 with 2.5 for the place.

Personally I will chance the market leaders in a dutch, to level stakes where I will profit if Tatenen wins and break even/slight profit on Franchoek - I will get about evens returns if Tatenen wins. (NOTE - I could alter stakes to produce level returns (eg £12 on Franchoek and £8 on Tatenen will return £5 at current odds of 2.1 and 3.15)

350
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Inglis Drever, 2/1 Blazing Bailey, 6/1 Millenium Royal, 8/1 Lough Derg, 16/1 Chief Dan George, Sonnyanjoe, 33/1 Gone To Lunch, Raslan, 50/1 Itsa Legend, 100/1 Redemption .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: INGLIS DREVER (nap) is immaculately consistent and can take this en route to attempting to land the Ladbroke World Hurdle for the third time in March. Old rival Blazing Bailey is an obvious danger but Millenium Royal could be a live contender if able to show his bes

Again, suspicion that this has been chosen as a scoop 6 race means it's not as cut and dried as the betting forecast would indicate.
This race can be approached in exactly the same manner as the one above, with 2 market leaders at dutchable prices and 2 each way alternatives in Millenium Royal and Lough Derg. We can get involved each way if we think one of Inglis Drever or Blazing Bailey won't fill the first 2 berths. Wtih prices at 2.8 and 3.4 we will get better returns for the dutch. 7.4 and 11 for the 2 each way candidates is certainly enticing.

Yet again, I will chance the dutch of the 2 market leaders - a level stakes bet which pays out pretty much evens, although there is a niggle this is not as much of a formality as the prices would lead us to believe ( remember this is top grade racing and all of the horses are there on their merits but remember I did mention some of the CHeltenham Festival big guns were getting a run out this weekend in my eletter)

DONCASTER - GOOD

BUT wasn't Doncaster heavy the other day? Will the ground not have been affected by that recent heavy going?

1220

Khyber Kim could be "something special" and at 1.39 he'd better be! There is no value to be had elsewhere in this race where the 2nd fav is 1.28 to palce and 5.7 to win and all other horses are double figure odds. Exotic bettors could entertain the straight forecast for the first 2 although I won't be playing that. Khyber Kim looks one to back and follow in running ,taking off increments as the price (hopefully) shortens during the race.

155

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Chomba Womba, 9/2 Theatre Girl, 5/1 Trompette, 16/1 Annie´s Answer, Sunshine Guest, 20/1 Histoire De Moeurs, 25/1 Soliya, 33/1 Serhaaphim, 100/1 Star Antique .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CHOMBA WOMBA is likely to be all the rage in her bid to keep her 100% record in Britain intact. She may not have as much in hand as the official handicap ratings imply and is racing over a trip short of her optimum, but is likely to prove equal to the task. Stablemate Trompette and Theatre Girl are lively each-way alternatives, with slight preference being for the latter.

Chomba Womba is nearly evens now and Theatre Girl 3.55 . Again a dutch for me to level stakes where I will break even on Chomba but face a decent return if THeatre Girl obliges.

NAVAN
130 - just a mention for LArkwing - would you be backing a short priced fav in heavy ground in a 27 runner event? He may be worth laying , again in running monitoing is a must. I saw a fav the other day in irlenad who reached 28 in running and still won.
With 27 runners there is an opportuynuity for Larkwing to get trapped, or hampered which should impact on the price allowing us to "sell" our lay at a higher price than we bought it

WOLVES

There are a couple of races of interest but with the gap to racing in the evening so pronounced I would prefer to look at the markets before deciding.

FOOTBALL
First match of interest features Jane MAnsfield taking on Boro. 2/5 for a team away from home should signify a couple of things - the potential for over 2,5 goals and the potential for that away team to win in half time/full time

BUT this is the FA Cup and Boro are likely to FACUP ! I'm going to opt for the half time/full time market here with the draw/boro and boro/boro dutchable with the ebtter payout on the draw/boro.

The Arsenal take on King Kev's Toon Army who are likely to be brought down to earth with a bump. A misfiring Michael "Asda" Owen instils me with no confidence. Their best sriker, Obafemi MArtins is away and Viduka is carrying a tyre round his waste.
Interestingly the last 6 matches have all been under 2.5 goals. Arsenal have drrawn one and lost 2 of the games at Arsenal. Will Arsenal draw for the 2nd consecutive game at the Emirates?

Head to heads in this game are difficult to take as an angle into the game as there is new management and a new Arsenal team what with half the players in Africa.

My bet will come in the winning margin market.

eg example £10 stakes
o goals - 4.8 £8 stakes
1 goal - 2.86 £10 stakes
2 goals - 3.9 £10 stakes

This gives us a good chance and a neutral bet - we are not backing a team to win

The Liverpool game must be approached by an "other than match odds" market quite obviously - 1.03 to win is actually bigger than Rangers 1/66 on in mid week.

Let's take our angle into the game from the 1/66 Rangers game mid week. Exactly the same price and Rangers were 3 or 4 up by half time, and eventually won 6-0.

Half time/full time is 1.17 which is reasonable enough.Over 2.5 goals is 1.17 .Liverpool winning score market - 6-0 interests at 9.6 as a tradeable option too should goals come early.

Over 3.5 goals is 1.47 not surprising if, again, we look to the Rangers match as a model.

Over 5.5 goals at 2.02 looks like a decent place to land. Any unquoted at half time is 2.02 too, and ,again,Rangers were 4-0 up by half time

I may enhance the odds in the Southampton game by backing over 2.5 goals for teams notorious for scoring and conceding in equal measure.

Wigan v CHelsea interests - Wigan under Boken nose Bruce could do a Birmingham and keep things tight. Chelsea are as strong as ever given the absences. Interesting stat - Wigan have scored in each of their last 10 matches. This is the FA Cup and I will chance, early, an under 2.5 goals trade. Chelsea at 1.55 are reasonable to get victory in the 90 minute market.

My Zambian boys face Cameroon today and are 5/1 to prevail. This is about right, and I will look to over 2.5 goals in the hope the defenses prove as key stone cops as usual. Cameroon scored 2, conceded 4 last time, and Zambia scored 3.

Come on the boys!

Egypt v Sudan - worth supporting Egypt Half time/full time here and consider over 2.5 goals and, at a stretch over 3.5 (for trading only)



MUG PUNTER ACCA ALERT

1		Mansfield v Middlesbrough Backing: Middlesbrough
2		Liverpool v Havant & W Backing: Liverpool
3		Southampton v Bury Backing: Southampton
4		Hibernian v Gretna Backing: Hibernian
5		Rangers v St Mirren Backing: Rangers
6		PSV v Excelsior Backing: PSV
7		Egypt v Sudan Backing: Egypt

Yes it's that time again to embarrasingly plunder the Betfair multiples for my mug punter accumulator ( which has come in on the last 3 occasions!) - possible sticking points could come in the Hibs game - Gretnas buoyed by a home win last time out and Southampton. You could lay Gretna and Hibs instead as part of the acca. It's very ambitious but offers an over evens interest in a day when I hope FA cup shocks are finished. Odds of 4.58 reflect the chances of the acca coming in but if the teams perform to their optimum and to their prices then it's a decent bet - of course one draw and I'm out of the game and the FA Cup is not the ideal betting medium to be putting your faith into odds on shots.