Backstage was a non runner, Clear Reef was 11/8 and Noble Plum 2/1 - Noble Plum won , shortest betting forecast fav Gold award won at 4/7, and Leeds won 1-0. I would suspect Leeds are worth supporting in the next few months after Master Bates got his wallet out in the January transfer window. Good day yesterday albeit with largely short prices but a wins a win!
240
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Autumn Blades, 13/8 Steele Tango, 8/1 Micheals Boy, 10/1 Awesome Light, Dear Will, 20/1 Red Sonja, 33/1 Hiss And Boo, 66/1 Caffe Coretto .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With none of the three newcomers making much appeal this looks between AUTUMN BLADES and Steele Tango with marginal preference at this trip being for the former whose stable has started the year in decent form.[GN] |
15/8 joint favourites in Autumn Blades and Steele Tango - both are backable to level stakes but returns will be small in this maiden race, Those looking the enhance potential returns have an ideal each way race with all 8 runners going - your thought process will be that the 2 joint favourites won't finish 1st and 2nd in what is ,after all, a maiden race
SOUTHWELL
100
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 High Reach, 7/2 Charlotte Grey, 11/2 Iron Pearl, 6/1 Pappas Image, 7/1 Maktavish, 20/1 Geordie Dancer, Obe One, Piccolo Prince, 25/1 Yurchenko .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sad to see HIGH REACH scrabbling about at this level but last week's clear second in a C&D claimer suggests he retains enough ability to go one better today. Charlotte Grey may pose most problems |
A note of caution given the race type (seller) and a potential price gapper, although there is no significant Spotlight confidence. Personal preference here is for the place only although at current 11/10, I suppose High Reach can be entertained as a bet, although stakes should be tempered given the grade
130
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Silver Hotspur, 5/1 Mister Benji, 7/1 Palais Polaire, 8/1 Guadaloup, Phinerine, 10/1 Having A Ball, Keon, 20/1 Avontuur, Favouring, Naledi, 33/1 Signor Whippee .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Silver Hotspur comes here at the top of his game but he'll be getting more sand in his face from stall 3 than from his wide berth over 6f here last time. With his penalty he's passed over in favour of dual course winner MISTER BENJI, who was just in front of him at Wolverhampton last time and whose stable has been in good nick of late |
Why the large price gap - replicated in the early morning prices. ? Interesting that analysis of the last race which the horse won (by a head) indicated that the trainer felt the horse resented being hit by the whip. Is this, and the info provided by Spotlight enough to take the horse on?
Despite the price gap I won't be backing Silver Hotspur and will watch it probably win, but place at least. Any alternatives then? Phinerine and Mister Benji each way may offer some rivalry although it must be noted it's tight after the clear favourite price wise with 5 horses between 7/1 and 10/1.
400
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Sweet Pickle, 4/1 Cerebus, 5/1 The City Kid, 6/1 Sophia Gardens, 14/1 Capania, Fustaan, 33/1 On The Map .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Everything points to a big run from SWEET PICKLE, who is at the top of her game on Fibresand and hails from a yard which is going well. The City Kid looks the chief threat. [RY] |
Yes I know, a filly as favourite ,with her mind probably on the January sales - not the ideal profile, but I feel worthy of support with Seb Sanders on board.
If you shirk backing fillies at short prices, the betting forecast makes Cerebus, The City Kid and Sophia the potential each way dangers BUT with only 2 the place each way betting will be a bit hit and miss.
Again Sweet Pickle would be an ideal candidate for in running trading either in the win only or place only market ( where we should get enhanced prices given its only 2 to place)
FOOTY
Perhaps a better hunting ground for profit today than the horses we have FA Cup replays and the Scottish Cup matches which were postponed at the weekend.
It's difficult to guage Derby's mentality going into tonight's match away to Sheffield Wednesday - why? Well obviously premiership survival would be the primary concern to a team not likely to win the Cup, BUT the result at Wigan I feel was the final nail in the coffin. Derby have been playing tight in their most recent games against premiership opposition ( albeit outside the top 6 ) and may see tonight's game as a welcome shot in the arm. Team news will be very important - a strong team and they may be worth a quid or 2 at 3.05, OR a lay of Sheffield Wednesday to cover the draw.
All of the value has been sucked out of the Liverpool v Luton game what with the mass exodus at Luton in this transfer month. Liverpool at 1.11 to win in full time is short enough - enhance the odds by backing Liverpool to win the first half and second half at 1.39
With over 2.5 goals at 1.49, surely the best value bet would be over 3.5 goals at 2.18 , albeit with one eye on trading - why? Well 1/2 about there being 3 goals means that the market expects 3 goals -what will this do to the 3.5 goal market - yes the price will plummet if the goals come as expected leaving us with a possible decent trade.
Dundee at 1.51 look worthy of support away to Huntly , provided they play a strong side!
Over 2.5 goals tonight in Barca's rematch with Sevilla is worthy of trading support despite the 1-1 at Sevilla. Look perhaps at Barca's site to determine the strength of the team - any of the big boys out and this is a no bet
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