17/1

One lesson from yesterday - all football bets must be in in running matches on Betfair - eg Havant and Waterlooville - I could have lessened the loss with the score at 3-2.

Stoneacre Donny lost but Double valentine won if you stuck with the first 2 in the betting forecast betting, but did you notice the huge market move for avoca dancer - here's the betting forecast

620 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Stoneacre Donny, 4/1 Double Valentine, 6/1 Noddledoddle, 8/1 Luloah, 9/1 Avoca Dancer, 10/1 King Of Charm, Pinafore, 12/1 Loaderfun, 16/1 Prettilini, 20/1 Diamond World .

Avoca dancer went off at 15/8!

Squiffy placed 3rd albeit at 2/1 - no sign of the 11/2 ! Moon bound won. Banjo BAndit placed . As I suspected Baylini, as another multiple handicap winner running under a penalty actually went unplaced. Allista the barrista and Top cloud were 2nd and 3rd so proved competitive. BAcking Negus de BEaumont and Money trix would have paid off as the latter won. Brook no argument placed as I suspected - again a favourite in a maiden hurdle fails to win - and a lady at that!

Again your research would have shown Van Nistelrooy and Robinho on the bench - if you're going to back a 2/7 shot you'd want a strong side wouldn't you - hence no bet for me. Mug punter accumulator came in on the 4 teams to back at odds of 2.4 (Havant left out HOPEFULLY!)
Gretna did score as I suspected which made the over 2.5 goal bet in the Rangers match very likely as they won 2-1 - good result. Gretna have managed to score against this stronger opposition .
AC Milan drew 1-1 so gave us a go for the speculative bet - although the odds DID suggest they were not taking this cup game seriously at all.

As to Newcastle, managerless when I wrote the blog, but Keegan stepping in and I just had to back the Toon with this psychological booster and so it proved. Flexibility here - if I had known when I wrote that Keegan was to be appointed yesterday then I would have backed Newcastle instead of advising otherwise.

Oh Getafe - why do you mock me so? Another 1-0 win for my favourite Spanish side - oh me of little faith!

So the big lesson from yesterday - THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A SURE THING, and do not lay at stupid odds when the match is not in running and you cannot react.

The Dubai Carnival has actually been affected by the weather! - Those damn Brits have been listening to Crowded House "always bring the weather with you"! - this means that racing is predominantly on the all weather over there.

A card I will leave alone - looks far too competitive as can be seen by the number of 1's in the form figures!

RAce 1 at Southwell is an apprentice claimer - hmmmm! Alfie Tupper at 1/2 -only for the brave!

230 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Realt Na Mara, 4/1 Haroldini, 9/2 Dickie Le Davoir, 5/1 Xpres Maite, 10/1 Neardown Beauty, Soviet Palace, 14/1 Crow´s Nest Lad .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dickie Le Davoir and the admirable Haroldini are both in good order at present, but there is every chance we haven't seen the best of REALT NA MARA (nap) just yet and he is taken to complete his hat-trick

A characteristic of recent racing on the all weather has been small fields and perceived 2 horse races - this has scuppered the 3 into 1 system I am trialling on the website . Here we have REalt Na Mara and HAroldini at early morning prices of 13/8 and 9/4 - again, if remaining odds against, oth can be backed to level stakes - Haroldini , we can assume is the better supported if comparing betting forecast price with early morning price.

300 - Diriculous is,yes you've guessed, a multiple handicap winner penalised for previous wins over a sprint distance
" has the potential to be better than this grade" - if you think that this is the case,then 2/1 offers reasonable value but I'll leave this one alone and watch him win (or I suspect place at least)

A grade 2 and grade 3 race at Thurles are the highlights in a typically difficult card. My old pal Hedgehunter runs as a 16/1 shot in a race I will avoid because of the competitiveness of the field

The grade 3 race is at 3.15
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Pomme Tiepy, 5/1 Emma Jane, 7/1 Outlaw Princess, 8/1 Sheebadiva, 10/1 All Heart, 12/1 Bryansford Belle, She´s Supersonic, 16/1 Da Sharp Lady, 20/1 Killeen Castle, Pip ´n Pop.

and we have a potential price gapper here in Pomme Tiepy, although there's no early market prices at time of writing for me to confirm. Soft to heavy ground is off putting but this fav comes from the Willie Mullins stable which can do no wrong at present. The hint that the fav may not handle ground is a concern ( ground I suspect will be more heavy than soft as the day progresses) - one to follow in running if market vibes are positive

650 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Coleorton Dancer, 11/4 Memphis Man, 100/30 Figaro Flyer, 6/1 Royal Challenge, 7/1 Distant Sun, 10/1 Came Back .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Top weight Coleorton Dancer is likely to go well from the front from his inside stall, but his long losing run is a concern. The revitalised Memphis Man should make another bold bid after last week's good effort at Southwell, but FIGARO FLYER (nap) has a fine record on this track and can make it five wins from his last seven visits here.

Prices for the top 3 are currently 11/4, 10/3 and 3/1 allowing for level stakes on each (with a slight loss on the 11/4 horse as its below 3/1)
This bet only stands if prices reflect those mentioned above - note - this race goes off at 650!

Another day of very difficult small field handicaps ( you can tell this because a lot of the favourites are going off at 3/1 in these small fields) means I will leave this card alone.

FOOTY

Midweek Italian Cup and the only bet of interest is in the Inter v Reggina game where Inter, at home, are 1.23 to win.
Yet again, we must look at team news to determine how Inter are taking the Cup this season
- again a look at the team's site will confirm whether you should get involved or not - if the team news shows a strong side, then 2/9 (1.23) indicates we can speculate on Inter winning half time/full time at 1.71.
Over 2.5 goals is odds on which hints at market makers on Betfair expecting goals.
Again it is all dependent on the Inter side - from the site....

Mancini names squad for Inter v Reggina

Wednesday, 16 January 2008 19:00:51

APPIANO GENTILE - Roberto Mancini has named a 19-player squad for Thursday evening's Tim Cup round of 16 return leg against Reggina (Stadio Giuseppe Meazza at 20:30). Portuguese midfielder Maniche will be added to the list if a transfer-related document arrives in time.

Goalkeepers: 22 Paolo Orlandoni, 71 Enrico Alfonso.

Defenders: 16 Nicolas Burdisso, 24 Nelson Rivas, 40 Ivan Fatic, 47 Marco Filippini.

Midfielders: 5 Dejan Stankovic, 21 Santiago Solari, 30 Pele', 31 Cesar, 36 Francesco Bolzoni, 37 Gabriele Puccio, 41 Attila Filkor, 43 Daniele Pedrelli, 50 Luca Siligardi.

Strikers: 17 Filippo Mancini, 18 Hernan Crespo, 45 Mario Balotelli, 46 Aiman Napoli.

Not a bet today in my opinion - this looks a weakened squad with the big boys rested again. If Crespo plays I may dabble with him to score anytime.

The corresponding fixture was 4-1 to Inter with this experimental side but is it a case of job done already?