FROM THE WEBSITE...
Deco is back
Barça learned last night that Deco is back after missing three games with an abductor injury, but Ronaldinho, Messi, Edmílson, Oleguer and Jorquera are all still in the treatment room, while Samuel Eto’o has now joined the Cameroon side in Ghana, as has the club’s other African Cup of Nations representative Touré Yaya, of the Ivory Coast. Sevilla are also affected as Kanoute, Keita and Koné are all involved and will therefore not be at the Camp Nou.This comes straight from the site - run away run away from any involvement!
When Liverpool were 3-0 up, the over 3.5 goal price went down to 1.28 , back at 2.18, lay off at 1.28 - nice green screen profit there for the trade - no need to wait for a 4th goal which inevitably arrived. Half time/full time was fulfilled in the nick of time!
Steel Tango won for the dutch of the market leaders, High Reach won which was welcome given the race type. Silver Hotspur won. Sweet Pickle was a great in running trade as I had visualised - coming 2nd
Dundee won but left it late. I was sweating on them for another of my famous mug punter accumulators - Feyenoord at 1.08, Liverpool at 1.10, Dundee at 1.51 and Galatasary at 1.14 paid out about 1.97. Dundee were drawing in the 80th minute bu thankfully the final score was 3-1.
This is the 2nd accumulator that has won for me in a row! I can put away the I AM A MUG PUNTER T shirt until the weekend
620 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Stoneacre Donny, 4/1 Double Valentine, 6/1 Noddledoddle, 8/1 Luloah, 9/1 Avoca Dancer, 10/1 King Of Charm, Pinafore, 12/1 Loaderfun, 16/1 Prettilini, 20/1 Diamond World .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: STONEACRE DONNY (nap) did it nicely here last week, is unpenalised for that and looks open to further improvement, given his lightly raced profile. Double Valentine is feared most, despite racing over a trip probably short of his best these days |
Stoneacre Donny has hardened in price BUT this race goes off at 620. If prices for the front 2 remain over evens, they can both be backed to level stakes. Stoneacre is a SAVER selection just out of interest
850
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several in with some sort of claim in a race which will not take too much winning. The market will give some clues as to what is expected for Aqua Pura and Otaki, and it would be no surprise to see either do better. Prince Of Medina and Isa’af are closely matched on running the other day but it may be worth chancing another proven stayer, SQUIFFY, who shaped well over a trip short of his best last time and will relish the extra yardage here.[GN] |
A race that can be potentially tackled from an each way perspective. Early morning prices make this a 4 runner affair with Imminent Victory's 6/1 betting forecast price now 11/1 in the early market ( please remember that this race goes off at 850pm and a lot can happen in the intervening period ) If we can take the prices at face value Squiffy at 11/2 each way looks a good prospect of a place at least
LINGFIELD
At least there's one thing the all weather can bring us - an element of consistency in the ground!
145
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Moon Bound, 2/1 Orange Square, 5/1 Prime Factor, 14/1 Running Supreme, 16/1 Eleanor Eloise, Mad Man Will, 100/1 Joe Rich .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: If there are no positive vibes for Prime Factor, likely this will be fought out by MOON BOUND and Orange Square. Back over the C&D of easily his best effort, the Muir colt gets the vote.[AC] |
An ideal dutching medium perhaps - level stakes on Moon Bound and Orange Square, or with 7 runners place only on one of the 2 named ( selection to be determined by market confidence nearer the off) Paying only 2 the place should increase place only odds
220
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Boomtown, 9/2 Banjo Bandit, 8/1 Black Heart, 10/1 Lady Sandicliffe, Sheer Fantastic, Threestoneburn, 12/1 Anabaa´s Secret, Scientific, 14/1 Tobouggornotobougg, 20/1 Coral Shores, Victory Shout, 33/1 Tobago Bay .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BOOMTOWN has obvious claims under a penalty after last week's runaway success but Banjo Bandit is open to further improvement after a convincing handicap debut success and is feared |
With a prevalence of big prices in this race, perhaps Banjo Bandit each way (bias on the place only part of the bet) should give the penalised market leader a battle at least
250
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Baylini, 9/2 Kindlelight Blue, 7/1 Art Man, Oakley Heffert, 12/1 Baan, 16/1 Italian Romance, 33/1 Lorikeet, 50/1 Three Thieves .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to oppose BAYLINI (nap) after last week's rout and she can complete her hat-trick. The dependable Kindlelight Blue can follow her home. |
A "hard to oppose" Hard to beat bet here -price gap (check), trigger words (check), spotlight confidence (check)
My only concern here is the hatrick bid - but Spotlight does say " hard to beat on that form". Again more speculative punters will opt for Kindlelight Blue each way but I'll try Baylini despite reservations about multiple winners in handicaps
100 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Double Default, 5/1 Allistathebarrista, Hockenheim, Top Cloud, 14/1 Minster Shadow, 16/1 Allborn Lad, 20/1 Witch Wind, 25/1 Aitch Doubleyou .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: At the risk of upsetting the cliche police, anything Irish point winner DOUBLE DEFAULT achieved over hurdles was always going to be a bonus, and he achieved a fair amount last season. With question marks about several of his rivals he looks the one to beat on today's chasing bow.[GW] |
A 4 horse race by all accounts if the betting forecaster has accurately priced this race up. One shortist priced market leader now at 2/1 - a long absence - soft ground - worth each way I think and for me, Top Cloud and Allistathebarrista each way should ensure at least one of these is competitive for the win only should Double default falter.
Interesting to see Aitchdoubleyou - I remember backing double you cubed twice at 16/1 and 20/1 and the horse winning - is this horse from the same stable? At any rate it's not priced to be competitive and neither has there been a market move
205 - quick mention for NEgus de BEaumont and Money Trix - Ellerslie George (5/1 betting forecast) is 20/1 in the live market - suspicious or just unfancied. Dutching the 2 market leaders would be my play here, but I'm put off by 3 miles in soft ground
240 - Brook no argument stands out here - mares only (arrrgh!) maiden hurdle (arrrghhhh!) means a probable place only bet for me
FOOTY
You saw the importance of research yesterday - no Ronny, no Messi, no Et'oo - where are the goals going to come from for Barca? - NO BET! Team stats avalaible at the teams site.
Predominantly cup games this evening
Again, do your research to look at the Real Madrid side put out this evening at home against a Majorca side who won on their patch ( not unexpected given Real's weakened side that day) We MUST see a strong Real team this evening to entertain involvement here. 2/7 for the home win hints at a stronger team and better display. Real struggeld away to Levante at the weekend, so for me, half time/full time Real Madrid /Real Madrid at 2.1, and draw/real madrid at 5 looks a reasonable level stakes dutch.
Again, no strong Real side means no bet here. We want to see some of the big boys out tonight .
MUG PUNTER ACCUMULATOR ALERT MUG PUNTER ACCUMULATOR ALERT
Yes 2 out of 2 in recent weeks so I'll try again given the fact these are predominanlty cup games where there is a perceived gulf in class between the teams
Fiorentina /Fenerbahche/Sampdoria /Rangers pays out 2.4 which is very reasonable . I expect at least one of the teams mentioned to balls it up or save my ass in the 91st minute with a late winner. Stakes should be put on with the idea of writing the money off!
Rangers should oblige this evening against Gretna but I suspect Gretna may score which will allow for over 2.5 goals trading at 1.6.
Ac Milan at 2.42 can rarely be backed at that price - it hints at a weakened side and no real interest in the Cup, but I will chance small stakes on AC Milan just based on who they are regardless of a weakened side or not - ideal scenario is for the match to be in running.
A straight lay for me of Havant and Waterlooville ( this lay could be included in my mug punter accumulator to bump up odds) - Swansea shouldn't lose this evening.
Newcastle v Stoke - one to approach with caution given managerless Newcastle's recent drubbing. I suspect weather may play a part in this game given where it's being played? I'll lay NEWcastle to win halftime/fulltime I think or in the outright match odds market with one eye on trading out if it remains 0-0 for any length of time
Elsewhere Getafe are away from home but I don't trust Laudrup's team selection in the cup to back these personal favourites of mine in Spain.
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