3/1

Job done yesterday with another LOSER who only came 2nd but as we were place only betting, there was no problem! UPDATE - NO SANDOWN TODAY SO 405 CORK WOULD REALLY BE MY STOP OFF POINT FOR PLACE ONLY BETTING BUT AGAIN I WOULD PROBABLY STICK WITH CHELSEA AND/OR BARCELONA FOR MY ONE A DAY TARGET PROFIT PER DAY BETS

1240 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Salt Of The Earth, 7/2 Wavertree Warrior, 5/1 Bavarica, Hucking Hero, 6/1 Don Pietro, 10/1 Ede´s Dot Com, Master Mahogany, 33/1 Roundthetwist,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Could not have a great deal of faith in this bunch. SALT OF THE EARTH has recaptured his form of late and is preferred to Wavertree Warrior who has become to expensive to follow

This 9 horse race has now become a 6 horse race so is included for place only purposes. Probability wise, any one selection has just 3 to beat to place but with the "outsider" at 8/1, this is a tight affair. Original favourite Salt of teh earth still clutches on to favouratism and may be of interest if it's still 3 the place Still 3 to place in this race
Salt 1.49
Bavarica 1.64
Wavertree 1.84
Hucking 2.28
Master 2.36
Edes 2.34

Big place only prices and with a reduced field the prices are TOO big with no standout. Playing the probabilities could be a good idea today - if you fancy Salt of the Earth who, let's face it, was the originally favourite when the 9 runners were there, then 1.49 is huge, BUT this is apprentice ridden too!


100 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 United, 5/1 Shatabdi, 11/2 Blaeberry, 9/1 Sweetheart, 10/1 Accordello, Circus Rose, Theatre Belle, 25/1 Magical Legend, 33/1 Owlesbury Dream.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: If she is in the same form as when winning at Haydock (her first start for 20 months) two weeks ago, it is very hard to envisage UNITED being beaten in this. Blaeberry and Shatabdi can fight it out for second

Price gap remains with SHatabdi now 4/1. 4 horses sub 16/1 here 2.02 / 1.21 with Shatabdi 1.75 for the more adventurous. A mares only contest, the hope is these ladies' minds are not on the JAnuary sales and a new handbag

130 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Head Of The Posse, 7/4 Baltiman, 9/4 China Rock, 20/1 Mister Micheau, 66/1 Bloomfield Lass

ANother probability race - 3 vying for 2 places(IF we can readily discount the perceived outsiders!)?
Head 1.39
China Rock 1.56
Baltiman 1.48
-the other 2 horses are 5/1 and 8/1 to place in an illiquid market


135 SANDOWN

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Helium, 9/2 Psi, 5/1 Stow, 15/2 Silk Hall, 16/1 Gofannon, 20/1 Purely By Chance, Ray Diamond, 25/1 Ovthenight, 40/1 King Olav, 100/1 Capeleira.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is unlikely we have seen the best of Stow and Psi but if HELIUM is as effective on this ground as he is on softer he will be hard to beat.

Stow now 3/1 in the live market.
4 horses sub 25/1 BUT a couple have not run before and these are juvenile novices 1.21 to place for Helium

405 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Quinola Des Obeaux, 11/8 Miss Abrahnovic, 10/1 Underdwire, 14/1 Alderfield, 16/1 Freemans Leap, 20/1 Some Lady.

Some lady a non runner -looks a toss up between the front 2, one at obligatory odds on and the other a shade of odds against. These 2 horses make up the book pretty much. Mullins versus Nina Carberry.
1.07 and 1.18 to place

510 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Compton Classic, 11/2 Joss Stick, 7/1 Tamino, 9/1 Mind Alert, Whiskey Creek, 10/1 Kaystar Ridge, What Katie Did, 16/1 Ishibee, Night Prospector, Reigning Monarch, 20/1 Desert Light.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Possible to make a case for several of these, including Tamino who ran so well here in November, but COMPTON CLASSIC (nap) is on a fair mark for his new yard and looks to have plenty going for him from a decent draw.[

I have seen this on so many occasions that a price gapper fav in a 0-60 class 6 handicap (ie piss poor) always performs well despite your instincts telling you not to get involved as horses in this grade cannot really be relied upon -Compton Classic is 7/4 and 2nd fav is 7/1 1.46 is a surprisingly big place only price for such a price gapper and, for me ,is viewed with suspicion

OTHER CONSIDERATIONS

Chelsea are 1.12 at home against Southend ( we need to see the team news for the blues) but 1/10 on should oblige!
Barcelona at 1.22 are even more enticing and should bring it home at home. This is a Primera league match so expect a strong Barca 11

ONE A DAY
Concern that there are a number of possible qualifiers from Cork -the IRish racing does not fill me with confidence at the best of times.
1240 LINGFIELD - purely a probability race - do we expect Salt of the Earth to at least beat 3 horses to get a place at 1.49 or is that 1.49 telling us this is a tight race and an apprentice hands and heels handicap - YUK!
100 SANDOWN - United priced to be very competitive here.
405 CORK - despite this being in Ireland, I am taken by the fact this is an apparent 2 runner race with Mullins representing current market leader and Nina Carberry riding for John Keily. With Some lady a non runner, there is one debutant in Underdwire, and at 25/1 in places he is not priced to be competitive (although 14/1 at bet 365 might hint at something!!)

Spotlight is interesting
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: QUINOLA DES OBEAUX gets the vote to continue the blistering recent run of Willie Mullins and his son Patrick. He created a favourable impression on his debut over this trip at Punchestown last November when making all the running for a seven-length victory over The Book Thief. Although the latter let the form down when he suffered defeat at odds of 4-6 for a bumper around here, the selection was different class when they clashed that day and, with improvement likely, he should be good enough despite conceding 12lb to Miss Abrahnovic.\n
John Kiely's mare is ridden for the first time by Nina Carberry after reaching the frame first time out in a mares winners' race at Punchestown behind Bobs Display. With that experience behind her, she looks a big threat in what looks a match on paper.

Miss Abrahnovic is receiving 12lb from Quinola. Will this be ultimately crucial?
The fav ,as said, represents the Mullins yard who are simply on fire at the moment. HE's odds on by default really -it's the standard bookmaker pricing for a perceived 2 horse race - one at odds on and the other at odds against to produce the overround.
This is a bumper so no obstacles to overcome. The prices are very poor in the place market at 1.08 and 1.11

At better odds, Helium at 1.21 looks primed to place in a race where only 4 horses are sub 25/1
He would be my one selection today, but there are better opportunities today in the football for me, with CHelsea at 1.12 and Barcelona at 1.22 -the latter especially enticing. Ready preference (team news required for both matches though) is for these over the horse racing today for target profit per day betting