20/1

Heavy ground today over the jumps and one all weather venue - not ideal

120 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Fiendish Flame, 13/2 Letterpress, 8/1 Karmadice, 10/1 Alderbridge, 12/1 Blacks Bridge, 16/1 El Chico, 20/1 Rennington Blue, 25/1 Abbey Minster, 33/1 Lisglynn Jim, What Happened, 40/1 My Midas, 200/1 Over The Odds.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Considering he looked still green, FIENDISH FLAME (nap) did well to get as close as he did when second to a far better fancied and useful stablemate on his hurdling debut and it will be disappointing if he cannot convert this feasible opportunity

Now nearer 1/2 but we still have the spectre of heavy ground 1.13 to place

320 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Cave Hill, 15/8 Bay Cherry, 7/1 Overlady, 12/1 Stark Raven, 14/1 Maolisa, Pre Token, 20/1 Paddymcgintysgoat, 25/1 Glengap, The Artful Fox, 33/1 Esme Rides A Gaine.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CAVE HILL has been found a good opportunity to make a winning debut over regulation fences, though lightly-raced winning pointer Bay Cherry will find this easier than the opposition he encountered when jumping poorly at Market Rasen on his chasing debut

Top heavy market BUT 3 mile 3 in heavy and a maiden chase to boot. 1.34 for Cave Hill

330 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Dance And Dance, 5/2 Angel Song, 5/1 Lively Blade, 9/1 Unbelievable Jeff, 14/1 Petrenko, 16/1 Croy, 25/1 Beaux Yeux, 33/1 Redlynch, 50/1 Only Hope, Wizzy Izzy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dance And Dance is the only one with any worthwhile form, but might be vulnerable to an interesting newcomer. Both Lively Blade and ANGEL SONG fit the bill, and the latter, from a good sprint family, is taken to make a winning debut

A maiden and only 2 runs , compounded by 4 newcomers we no nothing about. Odds on now forthe in form Frankie Spencer - will he be meeting Betty in the winners exclosure after this? 1.15 to place

ONE A DAY
A tricky day with heavy ground compromising all bets at Sedgfield. Now Martin Blakey has had a word for Cave hill, but as I have already mentioned, this is a 3 mile 3 furlong maiden chase in heavy ground. In light of this information from MArtin Blakey, this horse could be considered for the place ( going against my natural instinct to run to the hills in a race of this type!) 1.34 is at the higher price range for my place only betting

Alternatives? Well MAn Utd host Derby in the Carling Cup and are 1.2. I may actually break my new years resolution to kick the Carling Cup to the kerb girlfriend tonight what with the heavy ground and a twice raced odds on shots who does ,at least have hmmmm Frankie Spencer on board

120 SEDG - in an 11 runner race, 5 horses are at 100/1 or greater currently, one is 66/1 , one 25/1, with the rest 14/1, 9/1, 4/1 and 1/2
Can we safely discount these 5 outsiders? If yes, the race is down to 6 realistic contenders. Of these 6, the front 2 are the only 2 supported. Fiendish FLame was 25/1 2nd last time out splitting 2 at 7/4 or thereabouts, beaten by a stable companion.
I am desparately trying to draw up a case for these jumps propositions. My thought is that the 1/2 on Fiendsh flame takes into account the ground conditions?

I am, in conclusion, going to leave the jmps venues alone in this heavy ground - regardless of price these shorties might just find the ground tiring and run below expectations - they are animals and not automatons

This leaves Frankie on DAnce and Dance in a maiden. We are catching the beret wearing one at a good time as he has been riding extremely proficiently these last few days, and on the all weather.
A 9 horse race now,3 are 50/1 or bigger and DAnce and Dance is 5/6 in the live market. A chance is taken at 1.15 purely ,really ,based on Mr SPencer's recent good riding performances