BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Woody Waller, 3/1 Sea Storm, 7/1 Bespoke Boy, Pontop, 8/1 Simple Jim, 10/1 Abolition, Best Horse, 16/1 Strobe, 20/1 Bumble Rose, 50/1 Art Bank, Byron Bay, Catai, 100/1 Dukesfield.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An ordinary race that provides a realistic opportunity for capable Flat performer WOODY WALLER to make it third time lucky over hurdles for his high-profile yard |
FAv backed into 13/8 1.41 to place
130 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Don´t Stop Me Now, 5/1 Elzahann, 7/1 Danzatrice, 8/1 Just Posh, Kings Maiden, 10/1 Naturally Inspired, 12/1 Lemon Drizzle, 16/1 Wheyaye, 25/1 Leith Walk, 50/1 Bromley Bay, Pugnacity, 100/1 Claresburn, Elsies Nook, Vallani.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Elzahann has a brighter future than most here but she'll do well to give weight to the very capable DON'T STOP ME NOW (nap), who boasts very solid win and placed form round here and hasn't finished improving yet.[ |
Now odds on in this mares only hurdle 2.18 win and 1.24 place
230 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Casual Affair, 4/1 Calcutta Cup, 6/1 Commit To Memory, 8/1 I´m Delilah, 10/1 Twilight Dawn, 12/1 Bajan Pride, Capped For Victory, 16/1 Fujin Dancer, Spare Days, 25/1 Masterofceremonies, Sir Douglas, 50/1 Overlaw.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Market support behind Irish runner Commit To Memory would be significant but one that appeals more is capable Flat performer CASUAL AFFAIR, who made a nice impression on his hurdling debut here and has more to offer.[ |
4 sub 16/1 in the live market
Casual affair 1.56 to place
Calcutta Cup 1.63 to place
I'm Delilah 1.93 to place
Commit to memory 1.94 to place
Hardly scream out any real confidence!
BUT this is nearly a probability race and one for the chancers to hope the market is accurate and there are no dark horses outside of these 4
250 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Aahaygirl, 3/1 Pearl Of Manacor, 7/1 Gurteen Diamond, 10/1 Brett Vale, One Cool Mission, 14/1 Fashion Icon, 20/1 Chase End, Chief Wild Cat, Pedregal, 25/1 Foreign Investment, 33/1 Cruise Control, 66/1 Minibuzz.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Aahaygirl sets the standard on what she achieved on turf last year and certainly has a race of this nature in her if taking to the surface. However the suggestion is the less-exposed PEARL OF MANACOR, who showed improved form in a race that worked out well on his second start, is from a yard in form and is a half-brother to a dual Polytrack winner. |
Pearl is a market mover but has not run since 15th Aug in this maiden 1.42 Pearl and 1.42 Aahaygirl to place
320 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Bridgewater Boys, 7/2 Nawamees, Quince, 7/1 Boundless Prospect, Calzaghe, 14/1 Spume, 25/1 Still Dreaming, 100/1 Mister Maq,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for the tough and reliable BRIDGEWATER BOYS to notch his 19th career win. Nawamees and Quince are the obvious dangers. |
The fav is out - will this open the race up to the 2 horses who were sub 7/1 in the betting forecast?
We would ideally want 3 the place still on Betfair _YES 3 to place -Quince is 1.39 and Nawammess 1.45 to place
400 MUSSBETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Red Onion, 4/1 Now This Is It, 9/2 Alvarado, 5/1 Miss Keck, 8/1 Nodforms Violet, 10/1 Hunters Belt, 14/1 I´Ll Be Frank, 20/1 Doc Wells, 25/1 Barron Watlass, 33/1 Teviot Hill, 66/1 Beatemall, Moscow Mischief, Shahramore, Shambery.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Interesting to see how the market speaks about the likes of Alvarado, Hunters Belt and Nodforms Violet, but NOW THIS IT, Miss Keck and Red Onion all have solid placed bumper form to their name already. The Irish raider acquitted himself well against a decent Howard Johnson rival on his debut over C&D and gets the vote |
Baron Watlass now 7/2 (check the betting forecast price!) and this is a biumper where market moves are important 1.81 to place - is this a market mover or has the betting forecaster underestimated by quoting 25/1
450 WOLVES
GULP!
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Castaneous, 4/1 Hurforharmony, 7/1 Valentine Blue, 10/1 General Tufto, Taran Tregarth, 20/1 Listen Carefully, 25/1 Special Chapter.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Maidens don't come much worse than this one and it's hard to get away from CASTANEOUS, who bettered the form of his Flat debut when a respectable third to a subsequent winner over C&D in a much stronger race than this one last time. |
A poor maiden and only 2 the place - dare we trust this odds on shot in such a poor race? 1.32 to place
520 WOLVES
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MILNE BAY (nap) is hard to oppose in his current form and in a race that promises to be run at a true tempo, he can get the better of old rival Sendreni. |
A 0-70 handicap with a price gapper backed in the live market - not quite the low grade that would fit into my system re price gappers in 0-50 - 0-60 handicaps but interesting all the same
Only 9 run which means 3 the place 1.14 to place -interesting as I was expecting it to be a lot bigger to be honest
720 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Avoir Choisi, 4/1 Elisiario, 8/1 Saints Bay, 10/1 Five Gold Rings, 12/1 Hidden Horse, 16/1 Esteem Dancer, 20/1 Lyrical Intent, 25/1 Valid Point.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It wouldn't be the biggest surprise if one of the newcomers went close here, but AVOIR CHOISI can benefit from this shorter trip and a more patient ride and get off the mark at the third attempt |
8 down to 7 runners - still 3 the place? Only 2 horses sub 10/1 in the revised live market - 1.1 (illiquid market)
750 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Double Act, 6/1 Celtic Commitment, Hold The Bucks, Precocious Air, 10/1 Special Bond, 14/1 Jonnie Skull, Turn To Dreams, 25/1 Tartan Turban, 33/1 Snoozing.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DOUBLE ACT is a fair sort to be running in these events and with a strong pace looking on the cards, he can confirm his recent Wolverhampton superiority over a couple of these. Precocious Air could be the one to chase the selection home |
They're all coming thick and fast at KEmpton - a price gapper in a lowly claimer is of great interest to me BUT decisions really ,for practial reasons, need to be made nearer 750 pm ,rather than 1230pm! 1.19 to place
820 WOLVES
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Totally Focussed is capable of winning off this sort of mark and is respected, but it was hard not to be taken with HARALD BLUETOOTH(nap) at Wolverhampton last time and he could be the type to continue to progress for his new stable |
The straight 8 makes this of interest 1.27 to place
ONE A DAY
A tricky day today in my eyes
320 wolves -quince looks worth a chance purely from a probability perspective
520 wolves - milne bay -I am taken by his shortness in the place market
750 kempton - double act -price gapper
My instinct today tells me to wait for Kempton and take each race as it comes because the markets will be stronger
Quince I think may be worth a gamble as we have 7 runners, still 3 the place, and 2 horses at 25/1 and 100/1. He has, then, 2 to beat to place and is the market leader at present
A safer option is Milne Bay today, although a multiple handicap winner, like River Kirov, he is priced to run well again.
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