11/1

What a great probability bet yesterday - a 4 horse race, one outsider priced at 33/1 and a 4/9 favourite who had 1) to not fall and 2) to beat one horse to place and Companero managed that at a relatively generous 1.24 given the circumstances

leopardstown and Great LEighs on Sunday

145 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Finger Onthe Pulse, 5/1 Mister Top Notch, 6/1 Kilcrea Castle, Sky´s The Limit, 7/1 Vic Venturi, 14/1 Ross River, 16/1 Clew Bay Cove, Oscar India, 20/1 Schindlers Hunt, 25/1 Carrigeen Kalmia.

Price gapper herre in a valuable handicap - what's that mean? - well all horses are decent quality so this is no gimme.

2 mile 5 furlongs is a long distance! 1.53 to place - one blunder and there's at least 4 horses queuing up to take him on

155 GREAT LEIGHS
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Auld Arty, 6/1 Dance And Dance, Green Onions, 8/1 Quick Single, 14/1 Chase End, 20/1 Theta Wave, 33/1 Cool Madam.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks like a good opportunity for AULD ARTY, whose last two efforts are the best on offer here, though price has to enter calculations given he has been withdrawn when unruly at the start once and reared in the stalls on another occasion

Nice price gap here but a maiden on the all weather is not top of my list. Only 7 run so we have to be confident that the hot pot will place in the first 2.
Yes he's come 2nd last twice but is dropping in distance. The live market will reveal all in the morning 1.69 to win and 1.22 to place - only 2 places -Dance and Dance is the market mover here.

Unraced at the course, but experienced on the all weather we have to be spot on with this one as there are only 2 places. Experienced on the all weather - temperament issues. I do like maiden favourites who have defeated horses in previous races who then go on to win (3rd place won last race)
A tricky one this - no real opposition - on an upward curve - the only recent blip has come on the turf with a 6th place there (ground?)
A likely front runner who could dominate in this small field.


405 GREAT LEIGHS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 The Power Of Phil, 3/1 Dynamo Dave, Samson Quest, 12/1 Bayberry King, 14/1 Beckenham´s Secret, Riviera Red, 16/1 Kinsman, 20/1 Finished Article, Ma Ridge, 25/1 Sahara Prince, 33/1 Bad Moon Rising, 50/1 Veronicas Way,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THE POWER OF PHIL is the interesting one here, having joined a yard that has managed consistently to improve horses acquired from other stables, and this is a weak event by any standards. Samson Quest won a similar event well enough last time and looks the best alternative

3 below 12/1 here should be the ones to focus on unless the market reveals any likely other candidates
BUT this is class 7 (next stop Brighton pleasure beach) and a 0-45 event - YIKES!
As already seen with Joe Jo Star, the short priced market leaders should stand out in these poor events and the market will be very interesting in the morning

Auld Arty would be my one a day today (against all instinct given this is a maiden and is on the all weather!) in the hope that the drop in trip is not an inconvenience. Perhaps a safer one a day might be Porto this evening at 1.2 who are at home against Trofense and should win comfortably (emphasis on the word should!) Also of consideration is under 4.5 goals in the Man Utd v Chelsea match at 1.09 - crap odds but tradeable and good, I would say, for one a day target profit betting. The hope is this will be a traditionally tight affair amongst 2 of the big 4 whose previous meetings have not exactly been a goal fest