10/1

Apologies for not being online, I have been travelling and trying to get the broadband to work on my return.
New Years Resolution - Carling Cup can feck off! 3 winners for the place only bets when last I wrote and Derby beating Man Utd on a day when I was travelling. Good to see Joe Jo Star win in another 0-60 handicap - these races are certainly worth following the price gappers in - the horse was never pushed or whipped and it was a simple hands and heels job

1240 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sabre Light, 15/8 Corriolanus, 4/1 Gasat, 10/1 Tenement, 14/1 Chef De Camp, Royal Straight.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SABRE LIGHT is the most likely winner, provided the decision to swop cheekpieces for a visor doesn't backfire. Corriolanus should be capable of finding something on his Wolverhampton run, while Gasat's effort at the same venue was simply too bad to be true and he could also have a say.

Not much to choose from again - the big mover here is Gasat into favouratism from 4/1 betting forecast - again only 2 the place 1.66 to place tells us that this is no gimme

1250 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Prince De Beauchene, 11/4 Signalman, 11/2 Bracken Lad, 6/1 Ballybanks, 12/1 Classic Act, 14/1 Leo Tolstoy, 16/1 Best Lover, Capal Dubh Alainn, 20/1 Rennington Blue, 33/1 Kings Guard, 50/1 Shamboyant, 200/1 Ashgrove Diamond.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Signalman boasts the best form but he's probably vulnerable to a potential improver and ex-French PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE, a half-brother to smart staying chaser Miko de Beauchene, fits the bill. Ballybanks and Bracken Lad look best of the remainder

As has been characterisitc recently, a top heavy market with 2 standout horses sub 10/1 with Signalman the mover here 1.19 and 1.23 for Prince to place

110 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Annabelle´s Charm, 5/1 Forced Opinion, 8/1 Middle Of Nowhere, Ray Diamond, 25/1 Oxus.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only the brave will be tempted at prohibitive odds following her Wolverhampton demise but ANNABELLE'S CHARM did enough on her debut at this track to suggest she can win better maidens than this one

Forced opinion a non runner - still 2 the place in this maiden?Fav based on a previous run - Spencer on for Cumani 1.14 to place looks big for a 1/3 shot to place!

125 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lie Forrit, 4/1 Sirkeel, 11/2 Seraphin, 7/1 Tyrrhenian, 8/1 Solis, 12/1 Maxwellton Braes, Primrose Time, 20/1 Dallas Bell, 25/1 Watercolours, 33/1 Hurricane Jack, 100/1 Dee Cee Bolter.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Seraphin and Sirkeel ran well enough at around 2m on their latest starts to suggest they won't be far away if staying the extra distance but LIE FORRIT, whose stamina is not in doubt and who is proven in testing ground, makes most appeal

Now odds on and only 6 horses sub 50/1 which is encouraging for place only backers. Looks a decent prospect and well clear in last race when managing a 2nd place 1.17 to place ( compare that with 1.14 to place in the race above with only 2 horses to beat and you can see which race I would prefer I hope, from a probability perspective)

145 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Commandingpresence, 100/30 Premier Angel, 9/2 Haljaferia, 8/1 Silca Meydan, 10/1 Lady´s Art, 16/1 Best In Class, 20/1 The Mumbo, 25/1 Screaming Brave, 33/1 Maison D´Or, Red Suede Shoes, 50/1 Esteem Lord, Pyrus Time.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Following her encouraging debut at Wolverhampton last month, COMMANDINGPRESENCE (nap) looks the one to beat over a trip that will suit. Premier Angel and Haljaferia are clearly best of the remainder who have racecourse experience to call on.

Another maiden race and another odds on shot - only 3 sub 10/1 with Silca Meydan doubling in odds which must always be watched out for 1.23 to place

200 AYR

BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Companero, 11/2 Great Approach, 8/1 Quws Law, 10/1 Creinch, 50/1 Mitchel Henry, Overlady.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: COMPANERO is potentially a cut above these rivals and the main danger is that he'll be let down by his jumping, which was novicey on his debut. Assuming he progresses in that department he can score at the main expense of Great Approach, who is weighted to turn around C&D form with Quws Law

Simple probability - now 4 runners - 2 to place and a short priced market leader who only has 2 to beat to place - one of those 2 is 40/1! Question mark over jumping

1.48 to win and 1.24 to place - near 1/2 in the win market - again this is a probability race with only 2 to beat ,one at 40/1! The reason it's 1.24? ? over jumping and it's a 3 miler novices chase in soft ground

ONE A DAY

I think it's better to focus on the clear probability races here What we have to ask ourselves is ,with Companero, whether he'll put in a clear round. If he does then 1.24 to place is very big relativce to the number of opponents he needs to beat to place
Annabelle's Charm - Spotlight sounds the alarm bells regarding the last run! 1.14 again is very decent for sch a race.

I will chance Companero here at the bigger price of 1.24

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