26/12

ONE A DAY 1245 KEMPTON BELLVANO TO PLACE 1.23 currently



1245 - Birmingham v Chelsea - 7th (!!) versus top ( 1.6 away side). Since 24th October , Brum have won 6 and drawn 3, 2 draws against Man City and Liverpool. Brum have not played the established top 4 at home, but away from home, they have lost 1-0 to United and 3-1 to Arsenal. Not really ideal in measuring up how a well in form Birmingham will cope at home against the top 4.
Birmingham's home games have been generally tight. 2 0-0's, 3 1-0's , 2 2-1's and the losses have been 1-0 and 2-1.
Chelsea away have lost twice to teams in the top 6 ( remember Brum are 7th) .This makes the 1.6 for Chelsea a tad skinny. Their recent form has been poor too - 1 win, 2 draws and a loss.

3pm Celtic v Hamilton - 1.23 - Celtic are unbeaten at home bar 2 draws against 4th and 5th sides. Against sides around Hamilton's place in the table ( Hamilton are 9th in the league), Celtic at home have won convincingly scoring 3 or more against 8th, 10th and 11th .

Hamilton lost 4-1 away to Rangers which ties in well with Celtic's performances against the bottom 1/2 sides. This leads me to believe that Celtic will score 3 or more at home.

Celtic lost to Hearts in their last match and readers of the previous one a day regarding this game will remember I said it would be a tough game, but prior to the Hearts game, Celtic scored 9 in 3 games.
A definite shortlister this game with expectation for a 3-1, 4-1 scoreline . 1.18 over 1.5 goals

3pm Leeds v Hartlepool 1.38 - top versus 11th. 3 draws v top half sides means the 1.38 is a little short. Leeds only convincing really against bottom sides ( but to be fair they have not played 6 of the top 10 sides yet at home)
Hartlepool's form against top 7 sides have been poor, 2-0 losses to 2nd and 3rd at home, 2-0 and 2-1 losses away . This suggests that the top sides in the division just have the edge over them.
The 2 goal scoreline recurs for Hartlepool

3pm MAn City v Stoke - 1.47 - very much a case of over 2.5 goals at home but a new manager can mean a drastic change of tactics and thus previous form becomes a little redundant under the previous incumbent. This makes it guesswork largely tomorrow regarding how City will play and with which tactics. Will the cavalier Hughes "we'll try to score more than you" attitude remain? Makes this game a toughie to read

3pm West Brom v Peterborough - 1.43 - 2nd top v 2nd bottom and more often than not West Brom at home means goals ( the safe option being over 1.5 goals)
The Baggies have won comfortably against bottom 5 sides and beat Peterborough 3-2 at Peterborough. Generally Brom have succumbed at home against the top teams.
Peterborough have not won away but 3 draws and a 1-0 loss against top 10 sides means they can be frustrating . Newcastle won easily 3-1 - is this a good guide to the potential for West Brom?
I would consider a goals bet here I think although I suspect the Baggies form against lower league sides looks strong enough that they can continue this into today's home game

Newcastle have a 10 point cushion but Brom do have a game in hand. They MUST take advantage of that game in hand especially against such perceived poor opposition and hope that Newcastle stumble.

530pm Liverpool v Wolves 1.32 - against the bottom 11 sides, Liverpool's results have been what we would expect from a "top 4" side.This really is an unpredictable Liverpool side though

A deliberate team change v Man Utd gifted 3 points at Old Trafford and this spoiled a run of 3 wins in 4 games. 9 points from 12
Away to 1st and 2nd , Wolves have lost convincingly. BUT is this Liverpool side to be trusted? Highly inconsistent and their top 4 crown is slipping by the week. I would love to see Benayoun and Torres play as Wolves surely could not contain such quality?

RUGBY UNION
MAGNERS LEAGUE
The 2 big Irish teams play and are priced to win convincingly as they should again weaker Irish opposition
530pm Leinster v Ulster - 1.12
730pm Munster v Connacht - 1.13 - Munster dare not lose at Thomond Park e
Better odds than the bookies but I am viewing the markets some 24+ hours prior to kick off and the hope is that the day brings more interest and more liquidity into these games

HORSE RACING

HUNTINGDON
Inspection in the morning does not augur well generally
1205

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Chamirey, 11/4 Babysitter, 3/1 Quentin Collonges, 6/1 Only The Best, 12/1 Moorlands Teri, 16/1 Fort Severn, 25/1 Knight Woodsman, 25/1 Starlight Air, 33/1 I´ve Been Framed, 40/1 Dream Garden, 40/1 Rokinhorsescience, 66/1 Moonlight Ruby, 100/1 Another Minx, 100/1 Classic Diamond, 100/1 Snow Kaddy, 200/1 Secret Gift.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Chamirey is preferred to Quentin Collonges of the pair at the top but BABYSITTER (nap) did enough on his hurdling debut to encourage hopes that he can prove good enough in what is a decent contest.[Jonathan Neesom]

Interesting betting forecast - only 4 horses under 12/1 the ones to focus on? Only 5 horses under 18/1 - Moorlands Teri now 6/1 the market mover - 1.69 to 2.56 the place prices for these 5.

3pm

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Sudden Beat, 3/1 Sun Up, 9/2 Fleet Footed, 8/1 Good Faloue, 10/1 Ridley Taylor, 16/1 Mont Emeraude, 33/1 Jo Joe´s Lot, 33/1 Real Treasure, 40/1 Becky, 66/1 Madame Helga, 66/1 Meant To Bee.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sun Up has the best recent form but Alan King is almost unstoppable in bumpers at this venue (10-24 in the last five years) and SUDDEN BEAT is taken to enhance that record.[Stuart Redding]

Bumper so we really need market consultation nearer the off but as things stand, can we assume that the betting forecast is accurate? If so, there's only 6 horses under 33/1 and Alan King is represented by Sudden Beat. 11.runners down to 7 runners..
2 horses are 33/1 or bigger so hopefully 5 runners for 3 places.
3rd and 5th betting forecast favourites are out so this should make life easier for Sudden beat and Sun Up.
1.33 and 1.36 to place but very illiquid markets on Betfair at time of writing ( meaning no n reflective of true place only price)

KEMPTON
A sumptuous card

1245

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Bellvano, 5/1 Menorah, 13/2 Inventor, 15/2 Cootehill, 15/2 Dr Livingstone, 17/2 Farleigh House, 14/1 King Olav, 100/1 Another Miracle.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BELLVANO was smart in bumpers and looks like being as good over hurdles judging by last month's easy win on his debut at Newbury. He should be tough to beat if jumping proficiently again and can see off Menorah, who may well appreciate the return to 2m.[Mel Cullinan]

Price gapper here and the straight 8 runners make this "tough to beat" Bellvano of great interest. The opposition is full of last time out winners but McCoy the difference and the hope for the first 3 places?

Only 3 horses under 14/1 in the live betting the ones to focus on? Bellvano at 4/6 is holding up well at the head of the market -1.19 to place

230

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Binocular, 7/4 Go Native, 5/1 Starluck, 10/1 Pepe Simo, 40/1 Cape Tribulation, 66/1 Straw Bear, 200/1 King´s Revenge.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Nicky Henderson (twice) and Noel Meade (three times) have won five of the last nine runnings of this and in BINOCULAR and Go Native respectively, they can be expected to dominate again as the other five runners have upwards of a stone to find according to the handicapper. Provided Binocular's Newcastle flop was indeed just a one-off and he is back to his top-class best, he has the form to win with a bit to spare.[Mel Cullinan]

Can we trust Binocular after his poor Newcastle performance? Was there any proper reason for it?

Only 2 places mean the market should be looked at. Only 4 under 40/1 the ones who should fill the 2 places - money for all of the top 4 horses in the market makes this a tough race to nail one horse of these 4 who will confidently place

305

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Kauto Star, 6/1 Imperial Commander, 8/1 Madison Du Berlais, 14/1 Deep Purple, 16/1 Barbers Shop, 16/1 Nacarat, 20/1 Albertas Run, 40/1 Master Medic, 50/1 Our Vic, 50/1 Tartak, 66/1 Racing Demon, 150/1 Ollie Magern, 500/1 Sandymac.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Looked at in isolation, their Haydock encounter five weeks ago suggests that it is touch and go whether KAUTO STAR can beat Imperial Commander, but Kauto Star also looked highly vulnerable in that race in 2007 and 2008 and when he moved on to Kempton on Boxing Day he was imperious. Imperial Commander is an emerging star and Madison Du Berlais twice showed high-class form last season, but they have something to prove in this race and the probability is surely that Kauto Star will emulate Desert Orchid by winning it for the fourth time. Deep Purple and Nacarat are respected most among the several who throw their hats into the ring for the first time at this level over 3m.[Richard Austen]

Yes, it's only fecking Kauto Star, who should b a great place only price given the field size, but it is Imperial Commander surely who is the value bet here given his superb performance in a controversial photo finish which was not as clear as many would have us believe. Price gapper here 4/7 - - - - 6/1

"very much the one to beat" - the kind of trigger words I look for.Kauto is the only horse in the place only market under 2.38. Imperial commander is 2.38 to place which is a HUGE price for a horse who has been so close to Kauto at Haydock. From a sequencing perspective, Kauto cannot continue winning this race year after year by 8+ lengths, *unless he gets retired before a defeat occurs)

LEOPARDSTOWN

1210

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Rite Of Passage, 11/2 Gates Of Rome, 8/1 Bold Buccaneer, 10/1 The Real Tyson, 12/1 Royal And Regal, 14/1 Like Your Style, 16/1 Sinbinned, 20/1 Qoubilai, 20/1 Winner Takes Itall, 25/1 Hidden Diamond, 25/1 King´s Bastion, 33/1 Tawazoun, 50/1 Best Buddy, 50/1 Woodbrook Lad.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RITE OF PASSAGE has the potential to become one of the season's leading novice hurdlers and is sure to have been well schooled for his introduction

Price gapper here for Dermot Weld in this maiden hurdle. As you have seen before, a betting forecast price shortening in the live market is a great sign. Currently 2/5 rites of Passsage - 1.12 to place shows market confidence

120

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Alaivan, 5/1 Cross Appeal, 8/1 Action Master, 8/1 Mosstown, 12/1 Our Nana Rose, 16/1 Leblon, 20/1 Carlito Brigante.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALAIVAN has all the appearances of a horse who could feature at the highest level in the juvenile hurdling division. Formerly with John Oxx, he beat the 105-rated Fergus McIver in a 1m4f maiden at Gowran in May and lost only narrowly to Grand Ducal in the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes later that month before confirming a liking for 1m4f and heavy ground when beating Von Jawlensky in a Listed race at Roscommon. He jumped fluently when beating Leblon by 15l on his hurdling debut at Gowran, and it was reassuring to see the second go one better, if only by the skin of her teeth, in a maiden at Clonmel just six days later.

Only 8 runners here and a strong candidate. Surely good for the first 3? 7 runners now and 3 places still - there are only 2 horses sub 10/1 and Alaivan is 1.12 to place

WINCANTON
355

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Pride In Battle, 5/2 Robin Will, 100/30 Megastar, 10/1 Shoegazer, 12/1 Red Mile, 16/1 Johnny Mullen, 16/1 Landenstown Star, 20/1 Keltic Crisis, 33/1 Dust In Time, 33/1 Peasedown Cortina, 33/1 Victors Serenade, 50/1 Fleet Footed, 66/1 Mccauley.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Alan King was very positive about PRIDE IN BATTLE even before his hugely promising debut here and it will take a good one to beat him. My Will's half-brother Robin Will is a fascinating newcomer, but imposing Sandown winner Megastar may prove most troublesome.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Another Alan King bumper horse and one of 3 under 12/1 in the betting forecast. The later betting shows will reveal more. Megastar and RobinWill are both 13/8 - the big move is Megastar.1.20 to plce the front 2 -dare we trust the market so early ( remember bumpers need market consultation)

WOLVERHAMPTON

215

BETTING FORECAST: 1/12 Awesome Act, 14/1 Sweet Child O´mine, 20/1 Dubai Bounty, 20/1 Lovers Causeway, 33/1 Yorksters Prince.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Jeremy Noseda won this race 12 months ago with a 1-12 chance and can take the race again with another long odds-on chance in AWESOME ACT.[Adrian Cook]

Take the hint here? An Awesome Act of God surely will get this one out of the front 2?

4th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf and Ryan Moore back onboard - yes a 2 year old novices event but surely..............?

Awesome act is a non runner now leaving 4 horses and 2 places Sweet child o'Mine is the shortest to place at 1.29

SHORTLIST

Celtic are 1.23 to win at home against a team well beaten by Rangers .1.18 over 1.5 goals includes both teams

Munster in the Magners League are justifiably short at 1.09 and should win easily

3pm HUNTINGDON - Sudden beat looks interesting in this race where 3rd and 5th original favs are non runners This should be a 5 runner race and 3 places making current 1.35 APPEALING but the markets are simply not liquid

1245 KEMPTON - Bellvano seems to tick all the right boxes - 1.19 to place is good

305 Kempton - Kauto Star is 1.2 ,the only horse under 2.36 in the place market - likely the price is going to increase in running given the field size and waiting tactics of Ruby

215 WOLVES - With Awesome act out, this becomes a 50/50 race - 4 horses and 2 places - Sweet Child o Mine the default choice being original 2nd fav? 1.29 to place makes some appeal as the biggest price of the day

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

Celtic look very appealing today against a side beaten well against Rangers and in a position in the SPL table where Celtic dominate teams and score 3 or more at home.

Sudden Beat looks to have a great probability chance of placing here in what looks a 5 runner race and 3 places in the 3pm Huntingdon - a debutant

Bellvano looks ideally placed to, erm, place here

Kauto star is proven, standout here and 1.2 is a very good place price on his achievements. 2.36 for Imperial Commander is very tempting, and although perhaps not for one a day betting, worthy of note or today for me at least.

At the prices, a lot of the selections today are similarly priced between around 1.19 and 1.3

From a footballing perspective, Celtic look well worthy of justifying the odds of 1.23 at home today in a football match which gives us a trading option if we so require.

From a horse racing perspective Bellvano and Kauto star stand out and are both similarly priced. Bellvano

23/12

ONE A DAY 7PM TWENTE V HELMOND SPORT BACK TWENTE IN THE MATCH ODDS 1.19


No horse racing today

430pm - Fenerbahce v Altay -1.25 - Turkish Cup game
1-0 win for Fenerbahce in their last Cup game. Altay have been in good form in their league. 1.2 for over 1.5 goals. The market expects a home win - head to heads ( albeit some 5+ years ago ) normally register big wins for Fener.
Question is motivation here, team news. Besiktas lost yesterday in a Cup game they were priced to win, so a little shot across the bows.IN RUNNING
530pm - WHC v Ajax 1.1 away side - 1/20 with Bet365 so 1.1 on Betfair is well worth a look. Dutch Cup and a similarly ( infact bigger) priced Sparta won 5-0 yesterday in their Cup game. Of course there is limited research here regarding WHC so cues must be taken by the price. 1.1 signifies a 3-0, 4-0 type win where Ajax, if full strength ,are expected to dominate - next game is 24th January 2010 for Ajax so there really is no excuse not to bring out the first team given this is effectively their last game this year. A fresh team too given their last league game was postponed.
Increase the odds? Well halftime/fulltime is always worth a look when a team is 1/20 with the bookies.www.bet365.com offer halftime/fulltime at 1/3 Ajax halftime/fulltime on BEtfair is 1.19 but in a very illiquid market. BEcause the Betfair markets offer such poor value ( lack of liquidity) then again I head to BEt365 for over 2.5 goals which is 2/9
600pm - PSG v Grenoble -1.5 - simply because Grenoble are so terrible, having only won one game this season and drawn 4. Word of caution for PSG -Grenoble, although losing away from home, have never been spanked.4 1-0 ( 2 recently) losses and a couple of 2-1 losses indicate some competitiveness.
700pm- Twente v Helmond Sport - 1.17 - top for Dutch 1st tier versus 9th in Dutch second tier.Helmond Sport have a poor record against the top 8 sides in 2nd division. 12 game winning streak for Schteve, how you say, McClaren's Twente - have only drawn 2 games this season winning the rest.
Again, there is surely no reason that Schteve will not play a full strength side given the next match is on 24th Jan 2010.
Low scoring games for Twente have appeared when they have played top 4 sides, so expectation for a return to free scoring today.
730pm - Anderlecht v Dender -1.21 - recent head to head 4-0 win for Anderlecht in, I presume, another Cup game. Top of 1st tier plays 9th in 2nd tier. Anderlecht have a league game on 27th December -will there be a team change.

SHORTLIST
Ajax and Twente should both assert this evening. Both sides are at the top of their game, and have no excuses not to be playing full strength sides with their next games of importance a month away.
Both teams are free scoring and are priced today to win and win well
The best priced is Twente against Helmond Sport at 1.19 currently on Betfair.

22/12

ONE A DAY - No bet today - Next Bet 26th December 2009 BUT check your inbox as I will be looking at other sports in the interim.


With only one meeting on today, we are severely restricted by choice.

1225 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Secretive, 3/1 Master Leon, 7/2 Boy The Bell, 7/1 Exearti, 10/1 Blades Harmony, Golden Tiger, 14/1 Lily In The Pond, 33/1 Clifton Kid, Last Of The Ravens.

DIOMED VERDICT: BOY THE BELL has shown enough to think there is a small race in him and this looks a good opportunity.

2nd fav and 3rd fav significant non runners along with Lily on the Pond. This leaves 6 runners and hopefully still 3 places paid out on Betfair.
In secretive we have the impressive Fanning/Johnston partnership. A newcomer so the only way to guage likely running is through the market where he's 8/11 at time of writing.

And from my perspective, that's it as far as the single meeting at Southwell goes, and we are still left with a maiden debutant 2 year old on the all weather to consider - not a rock solid bet I am sure you will agree.
So any arguments for place backing Secretive?

• 2ndand 3rd favs non runners - fav's nearest rivals
• there are only 6 runners remaining and 3 places so the question is " will this newcomer from a top stable and with stable number one jockey onboard ( note stable 2nd jockey is also at Southwell so having Fanning onboard may be a clue in itself?) get beaten by 3 horses in a 6 runner race, 2 of which are 20/1 or bigger

NEGATIVES

• 5 of the 6runners are debutants and could be anything. eg the fav could not take to the surface and the other debutants could.
• class 6 2 year old maidens are not the most reliable of betting mediums unless you have some stable inside info ( especially with 5 debutants in the field)

BUT from a probability perspective, this is a 50/50 race - 6 horses - 3 places.

Elsewhere the football offers nothing today - a couple of Dutch Cup games which are difficult to read with lack of team news or news re the weather.
The Turkish Cup game features Maniasapor and Besiktas who fought out a 1-1 draw in the league. Again we are betting blind here as team news/ motivation etc are so difficult to assess.

SHORTLIST
As we approach Xmas things are opportunities are likely to be thin on the ground
The only race of interest is the 1225 Southwell.
POSITIVES - 6 runners - 3 places - 50/50 race. Will Secretive get beaten by 3 horses in a 6 horse race, 2 of which are 16/1 and 20/1
Secretive was the betting forecast favourite and now 2nd and 3rd in the betting forecast are non runners- surely this makes life a lot easier for the horse not just to win but to place
Joe Fanning takes the ride and considering Greg Fairley is at Southwell today ( stable's 2nd jockey ) is this a clue in itself?
NEGATIVES - all bar one of these runners are debutants, meaning that they are being priced ,pretty much, by pedigree and stable connections ( perceived ability) rather than any concrete ability shown.

It is simply a guessing game this race, and building up evidence to side with it or oppose. Can we safely place back an unraced horse , a 2 year old, on the all weather, in a maiden where 5 of the 6 runners are also unraced 2 year olds?
There will be stronger opportunities after the holiday period I think

21/12

I looked at the racing and football last night and there was precious few opportunities for a solid one a day bet.

FOOTBALL
5pm - Anorthosis v Ermis 1.29
Cypriot league game.
Home team Anorthosis Fam have a home record of 5-1-0 (W-D-L) for their 6 home games this season
Away team Ermis have an away record of 1-2-3 (W-D-L) for their 6 away games this season
0-0 recent head to heads and looks like a league where , because it's so small, all teams can beat opposition on a given day. Prior to that - Anorthosis scored 8 in both games against Ermis.
7pm- Heracles v Go ahead eagles - 1.49
Dutch cup game where 5th in the top flight play 3rd in the 2nd flight.
Cannot really compare them on a level playing field as Heracles play the better sides.
Recent form - Heracles - 4 straight wins - 3 at home fill them with confidence. HAve only lost at home to 3 of the top 4 sides they have played. So, surely 3rd place in the 2nd division should not pose a problem?
Away from home, Go ahead eagles have found it tough against top half teams - drawing 3 and losing 2 - this could hint at a defensive line up.
Last matches for both sides this year so no real excuses not to play full strength sides and if doing so, I suspect Heracles should have too much, having only succumbed to the famous 3 big teams at home in the Dutch Premier League equivalent

HORSE RACING
1230 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Causeway King, 11/4 Barwell Bridge, 5/1 Googoobarabajagal, 11/2 Acquisitive, 8/1 Hector´s House, 10/1 Dreamwalk, 20/1 Order Order, 25/1 Salontyre.

DIOMED VERDICT: Causeway King and Googoobarabajagal have solid hurdling form but could be vulnerable to newcomer BARWELL BRIDGE, who went close in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot and is reported to have schooled well.

Interesting live market now showing Barwell Bridge at 7/4, Causeway King at 6/4 and a price gap to the rest at 8/1 bar.
The price move may be a good sign of a good run from Barwell Bridge who is a flat recruit and there could be some stable confidence behind him. Of course, this is all we can go by as we have not seen the horse school at home
Question - why no Choc Thornton for Alan King's horse? This is the only jumps race on the card today - too many mince pies?
1.25 Causeway King and 1.4 Barwell Bridge to place. Obviously Causeway King is the better fancied in the place market. Interestingly ,only these 2 below 2.4 in the place only market .
Established(ish) hurdles form of Causeway King versus the potential of newcomer Barwell Bridge.
Will these 2 dominate the race? For safety sake, do we simply default to Causeway King, the horse with the experience?

105 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 On Borrowed Wings, 100/30 Sleepy Hollow, 13/2 Sweet Shock, 10/1 Cappagh, Future Vision, 12/1 Kensington Oval, Praxiteles, 14/1 Knar Mardy, 20/1 Spent, 33/1 Ba Dreamflight, Books Review, 40/1 Cardinal James, 50/1 Taffy Thomas, 66/1 Amber Ridge, Beat The Rap, 100/1 Magical Island.

DIOMED VERDICT: On Borrowed Wings sets the standard on his Kempton second but SLEEPY HOLLOW isn't that far behind as things stand and may be open to some further improvement.

A big field at first glance but then we see only 5 horses under 20/1 in the live market (albeit a bit early still as I write)
On borrowed wings has the consistently placed form , won a 17 runner maiden hurdle in Ireland and 2nd in a novices hurdle most recently
Watch out for Praxiteles - a newcomer and the hint of some each way support.
This race is only over 2 miles which doesn't bother me too much regarding the field size. On borrowed wings was decent enough in his bumpers to suggest that he has flat speed. 1.28 to place On Borrowed Wings. Only 3 places in this 16 runner field.
6 horses are 50/1 or bigger in this race reducing the competitive field to 10. Still Praxiteles is the one they want here, now 4/1 in places.
If the market is accurate, this race should only involve those under 20/1
On borrowed wings 13/8
Sleepy Hollow 5/2
Praxiteles 4/1
Sweet shock 7/1


135 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Zanzibar Boy, 9/4 Quattrocento, 6/1 Diablo, 8/1 Supreme Keano, 14/1 Plane Painter, 16/1 Herecomestanley.

DIOMED VERDICT: Quattrocento, improved for a wind op and cheekpieces, sets the standard on his Doncaster second, but ZANZIBAR BOY clearly goes well fresh and is capable of defying this mark.

Tony McCoy is the winningmost jockey at Ffos Las thus far, so take note of Zanzibar Boy - a favourite, with McCoy on board. Must have an excellent chance then of being at the business end?
NEGATIVES - only 2 places here and a long absence to overcome. Tight old handicap market too and chase fences to jump over.
A massive 1.68 to place this Zanzibar Boy relates to you some of the negatives spoken about above. Could look a massive price at around 1 45pm! The price, for me though, throws up ore doubts.

305 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Sircozy, 8/1 Quinsman, 10/1 Broughtons Paradis, Fleur De´Lion, Taste The Wine, 12/1 Squad, 14/1 Choral Festival, 20/1 December, 33/1 Mallorey.

DIOMED VERDICT: Hard to get away from SIRCOZY whose late-running style is going to help keep him ahead of the handicapper.

A multiple handicap winner conundrum - has won his last 3 in handicaps - 2 class 5 and a class 6 - latest apprentice ridden - the good news is the jockey William Carson , is the same jockey as for all his wins. Knows the horse, knows the best way to ride the horse, and obviously knows how to win with the horse - key factors.
Of course, though, multiple handicap winner's wins will end - the question is ,when? And if it ends today, will it be a spectacular end or will the horse still place?
Well, the fact Sircozy is odds on suggests the market believes he has at least one last hurrah!
8 runners now and 3 places - the price gap is shortened by Quinsman now at 9/2
From last race
"he is in at Kempton on Monday where he will not be penalised for this win in an apprentice race. He has good prospects of completing the hat-trick, with a truly run race likely to help his cause."
2 clear outsiders at 20/1 and 33/1 can hopefully be discounted reducing the field to 6, 3 of who will place.
Sircozy reacquaints himself with 2nd and 3rd in the market who he beat recently. Sircozy has to be held up it seems, and this would be a possible weakness if not getting clear passage.
But as things stand, the question is, will he get beaten by 3 other horses in this race?
1.18 to place - the market expects again.

405 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Seek The Fair Land, 9/2 Laurie Grove, 11/2 Autumn Blades, 10/1 L´Hirondelle, 12/1 Carnivore, 16/1 Toto Skyllachy, 25/1 Baunagain, 33/1 Durgan.

DIOMED VERDICT: SEEK THE FAIR LAND stormed clear over C&D last time, has leading claims in a bid to defy a penalty and can complete a hat-trick.

That William Carson has found himself on another winning handicap horse in Seek the Fair Land.Under Carson, has won his last 2 11 runner races, most recently at Kempton ( the concern with Sircozy is a change of venue today)
Another price gapper, and under a penalty, only has 5 to beat to place, 2 of which are clear outsiders - money for L'Hirondelle today it would see 1.15 to place Seek the fair land


DARTS
710pm - Van De Voort to beat Duo 1.17 - I haven't got a clue about their respective form ,and am just goiby odds in a day where there are few clear cut solid one a dayers

SHORTLIST
7pm Heracles, if fielding a full strength side ( and why not given they have a long break and no more matches this year) should have too much for Go Ahead eagles in this Dutch Cup match. Only beaten at home by top 3 famous Dutch sides.
Betting blind really if getting involved as it is difficult to track down team news, weather conditions ( remember all of yesterday's Dutch matches were postponed)
1230 FFOS LAS
The complexion of the live betting market is in marked contrast to the betting forecast . Causeway King and Barwell Bridge now dominate. The place only market clearly prefers Causeway King to place but Barwell Bridge could be anything and do we take the hint re the near shared favouratism of the newcomer?
305 KEMPTON
These races become so much harder to read the longer the winning sequence. I mentioned Sircozy last time in a message and he won. On a 4 timer now, and winning sequences end, but unpenalised for apprentice ridden win last time, and has the jockey onboard who has won all 3 with him. Odds on in the win market and rock solid 1.18 in the place only market, the market certainly expects. My job is the decide whether this is a race too far, and if it is, whether Sircozy will still place in the first 3?
405 KEMPTON
Like the race above, a multiple handicap winner Seek the Fair Land on a hatrick this time, and coincidentally under the same jockey. Exactly the same price , 4/5 and next best is 6/1 , 1.15 to place shows extreme confidence as the rest of the field is evens or over.

21/12

I know a few people like to read the analysis and chose selections from them, but just a little word on the process might help you
When I list selections for the day, I pretty much list all selections at a price which hints at an easy win. THAT DOES NOT MEAN I FANCY THEM ALL AS A BET!
I have to find evidence which will persuade me that backing at the price is justified. And that's where the SHORTLIST and SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST comes into play.
Yesterday for instance saw over 1.5 goals in the West Ham v Chelsea match, a win for Lille and Mourad to place. All obliged. You will also notice that Celtic lost, Juventus lost, Anaya was UNPLACED ,
What did these 3 have in common? They did not end up in the SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST!.
BOTTOM LINE - if you are taken by any arguments I make for backing certain selections then you can back them at your discretion. My point for you to take onboard ( those of you who like to do this) is to perhaps look at the SHORTLIST and SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST at the base of each day's message because these are my STRONGEST bets of the day.
Remember though, that this is ONE A DAY

20/12

FOOTBALL
1230 - Hearts v Celtic - 1.61 - whenever you see the Old Firm priced up over 1.5 , then it generally tells us that this will be a tough old fixture. Celtic away have lost twice to Dundee United and Rangers 2-1 (both in the top 4) and drew 3-3 with Falkirk -a game they led and should not have lost.
Celtic have already beaten Hearts 2-1 at Hearts, and the expectation is that this will be hard fought and involve a single goal difference.
Hearts against the top 4 at home have lost 2-1 to Rangers ( another tight game!!) and 2 0-0's against Hibs and Dundee United. Again this brings up that word " tight".
Like Rangers yesterday, if they make the breakthrough they should secure the win. If playing this game, I would look to back Celtic and cover the 0-0 scoreline.

130pm Breda v Ajax - 1.57 - head to head this season an emphatic 6-0 Ajax win at home.
Ajax away have lost 3 times - twice against 1st and 2nd ( by a single goal margin) and once against 6th placed side.
Breda are 8th and away results against 7th and 9th are 4-2 and 4-0 wins for Ajax.
This hints at another torrid time for Breda who might want to stick with making beer!
Breda have only played 2 of the top 5 at home, losing 2-0 and drawing 0-0 and have lost all matches away to top 7 sides ( Ajax are 3rd)
Breda's home form can only be viewed against lower table sides they have played where they won 4 and drew 2
Although Breda lost away to Twente and PSV, the scoreline was 3-1 and this is a good guideline to Ajax's capabilities today.
50% of Breda's home games and 67% of Ajax's away games are over 2.5 goals, making an over 1.5 goal bet interesting - that's 1.17
I would only back Ajax with a view to trading out IF they scored first. They have scored 2 or more goals in all away games against sides below Breda in the league

2pm Juventus v Catania - 1.36 Juve - 3rd v bottom of the league. A tendency for Catania to keep things tight and then eventually succumb. Characterised by 2-1's against 2 of the top 4 sides they have played away from home.
Again looks likely to be a hard fought eventual victory by Juve and again, given the game type, I would only approach this game from a trading standpoint because 1) Catania can keep things tight and have scored away to those 2 top 4 sides. Catania have also drawn 3 away from home)
2) Juventus are likely to make the first breakthrough so the 1.36 will reduce dramatically and you can get your stakes back

330pm - Roda v PSV - 1.51 - Against 1st and 3rd sides (PSV 2nd) Roda have lost 2-1 and drawn 2-2 so they can be good at home and can score ( favour over 1.5 goals bet?)
PSV have already beaten Roda 3-0 at PSV which augurs well.
Unbeaten all season, PSV hav won all bar 2 games away from home.Against bottom half sides ( Roda are 13th) goals have been there - PSV scored 16 in 5 away the 5 of the bottom 8 they have played.

4pm Lille v Le Mans - 1.41 - dare we oppose a side who have scored 4 goals in each of their last 4 league matches and scored another 3 at home against Slavia PRague mid week.
Lille scored 4 away from home v Monaco last time, and 4 again at home against St Etienne who are interestingly one place above Le Mans in the league.
Lille are 6th in the league. Le Mans have lost to the 3 of the top 4 they have played away 3-0 , 2-1 and 2-1.
Infact, Le Mans have lost all of their away games. BUT note 3 1-0's and 2 2-1 scorelines.
With Lille's obvious confidence and goalscoring prowess they should make the breakthrough first. With the 1-0 scorelines of Le Mans, I would trade.
Le Mans may have some confidence from 2 home victories on the trot against bottom side AND 7th side ( Lille are 6th)
The question remains today whether Lille can continue scoring for fun. I suspect they can get at least one goal and then get the 3 points

4pm - West Ham V Chelsea 1.42 - ALL of the Hammers home games have been over 2.5 goals this season meaning THEY SCORE and THEY CONCEDE .
They have played 3 of the top 4 at home, losing 4-0, drawing 2-2 and losing 3-2. - conceding at least 2 to the top 4 at home.
Worryingly for the Hammers, their goals have dried up in their last 3 games , only 1 goal. Does this mean that we cannot rely upon them scoring against the top 4 sides ( see Man Utd game?)
Chelsea away have lost to Wigan, Villa and City, BUT scored in all 3 games.
With Man Utd losing again yesterday, Chelsea MUST win to consolidate at the top.

Inter v Lazio 1.41 - Inter don't lose at home under Jose!! LAzio certainly give nothing away at all away from home, with 4 draws, a 2-1 win and 2-0 and 1-0 defeats.
They have not played any of the top 4 away but have lost to 3 of the top 4 at home 2-1 or 2-0
A draw and a loss in their last 2 equals 1 point fro 6 for Inter and Jose needs 3 points today .

HORSE RACING
1235 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Rigour Back Bob, 5/1 Hans Crescent, 6/1 Mazara, 8/1 Stonemaster, 10/1 Effortless, 14/1 Mark Me Up, 16/1 Ballinahow Lady, Harold´s Cross, Hurricane Bolt, Take A Stroll, 20/1 Glenconnor Lad, King´s Light, 25/1 Boherna Gold, Finnbennach, Spider Bob, 33/1 Princess Misty.

Rigour Back Bob is 1/2 and holding up at the head of the market - price gapper in this novices hurdle, has won on heavy 1.12 to place

105 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Mourad, 11/4 Chicago Grey, 7/1 Next Week, 8/1 Mick The Tooth, 20/1 Cheers Jon, 25/1 Mister Bishop.

You've seen it before - betting forecast price considerably shorter in the live market generally augurs well ( apart from falls of course) This is the case with Mourad , now 4/11. Heavy ground a slight concern but these Mullins horses run in Ireland and it rains often ( believe me!!) 1.42 win and 1.13 to place

315 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Anaya, 7/2 Spirit Of Love, 4/1 Ermyn Express, 10/1 Prince Yarraman, Shoot The Pot, 14/1 Grams And Ounces, Not In The Clock, 25/1 Gra Adhmhar, Paint By Numbers, 66/1 Suzybee,

DIOMED VERDICT: The drop down to 7f should not be a problem for ANAYA, who sets the standard in a modest maiden auction event.

Why employ Fallon and Dettori in 3 of the last 4 runs, and revert back to Chris Catlin today ? I would have expected they were looking for the wins when employing Fallon and Dettori? Consistent enough placed form for this one. Spirit of love also backed 1.32 Anaya to place and 1.37 Spirit of love to place


SHORTLIST
Breda v Ajax - 1.17 over 1.5 goals is an interesting bet here, involving both sides. Breda seem capable of scoring at home, and Ajax similarly away from home.
Roda v PSV is suspended on Betfair at the moment - called off? I don't know, but again I would have favoured a goals bet here. Because PSV are unbeaten all season, LAYING Roda with a FIXED LIABILITY equal to the stake you would normally back with ( eg £100) produces the equivalent 1.14 back bet)
Lille v Le Mans - sequences always end, and often abruptly. Lille have scored 4 in all of their last 4 games. Can they possibly achieve that today?
1.41 for the straight win is very tempting in their current form - there are 3 names that crop up amongst the scorers for Lille - Frau, Gervinho and Cabaye - I would want to see these 3.
Le Mans, as explained earlier, have lost all away from home and against a team now with 19 in their last 5 games, Lille should surely make the first breakthrough?
While they are red hot, back them!!
West Ham v Chelsea - the +1.5 goal handicap market is up on Betfair as is the correct score 2 market . This hints at expected goals this afternoon.1.25 for over 1.5 goals, then, looks a reasonable shout? These goals bets involve both teams , but as mentioned in the earlier analysis, the Hammers have scored only 1 in their last 3 games and could not score against another top 4 side, Man Utd, at home recently.
Inter v Lazio - while Jose is still at Inter, lay their opponents at home to keep the excpetional Mourinho home record ( Porto, Chelsea and here) in tact.Again, here, you would click on the PINK lay Button which corresponds to Lazio

Payout

Liability

You will see a liability option. Click on that liability option and enter your normal stake (eg £100)
A box will open showing Max Liability GBP OK
You would enter your stake there ( eg £100)
At odds of 11, Lazio become a 1.09 equivalent back bet.
Of interest too, is the DRAW NO BET MARKET on Betfair but it is a very illiquid market. This would be my preferred option for Inter at home . 1.13 was available but quite simply there is no interest in this market amongst market makers.
HORSE RACING

105 THURLES - The Walsh/Mullins partnership is usually rock solid , especially when the money is down, as it is today. 1.42 to win and 1.13 to place is reasonable enough.
Concern that it's only 2 places ,and of course we have to hope there won't be a fall ( remember I cannot legislate for this and if the horse falls, it's a sickener at such short odds)
There are 2 clear outsiders in this race at 25/1 and 100/1 and hopefully these can be discounted reducing the competitive field to 4, 2 of whom will place
Mourad has a weights advantage over nearest rival, and has never fallen in his career. 2 2nds on he trot when evens favourite. The fact the market has him now at 1/3 almost signifies extreme confidence. If he can place in the 1st 2 at evens, then he should place in the first 2 at 1/3!!
315 KEMPTON - a head scratcher - if they fancied Anaya today, surely they'd have repeated things with another high profile jockey booking?
Of concern too is Spirit of Love's market move. Any involvement here must assume both horses will place. 1.32 and 1.37 to place are nice prices to consider.

Only 2 meetings today, one in heavy ground, means we have slim pickings.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

WHich of the above realaly stands out?

• Laying Roda against PSV really stands out. PSV unbeaten all season would want this to continue. 1.14 equlivalent bet
• 105 Thurles - 1.13 Mourad to place in the first 2 stands out given the horse is extremely well backed and the betting forecast price has shortened considerably
• Lille to beat Le Mans - 1.41 -back them while they are in excellent goalscoring form ( 19 goals in last 5 games) Le Mans lost all away from home this season. NOTE I would trade out after Lille scored first ( hopefully) and return my stake, by simply laying Lille at lower odds for the stake at which I backed them
  
• West Ham v Chelsea over 1.5 goals 1.25. If there was an early goal in this game, then the 1.25 will reduce considerably, and given this is a weekend day, you have this option
• Breda v Ajax - over 1.5 goals at 1.17

18 December

Lost out by a short head. Frustrating that Novikov placed as well yesterday

Dist.	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Trainer	Age	SP
	Lily Lily	9-0 b	J Fanning	K McAuliffe	2	8/1
hd	Ambrogina	9-0	T Eaves (3)	M Botti	2	4/1
opened 11/2
2¼	Privy Speech (IRE)	9-0	R Winston	Rae Guest	2	8/1
opened 17/2 touched 9/1
s.h	Puteri (IRE)	9-0	A Culhane	M A Jarvis	2	8/11 f
£500-£550 (x5) £500-£600 (x4) £800-£1000 £400-£500 (x13)
Still no payout for short heads. Incredibly frustrating.Such a distance the difference between profit and loss. Goes down as a loser and yet again for me another wrong final decision -different decision = different result which is why I want to show you the analysis - Camburr won 4-0 for instance - Novikov won - Ernst Blofeld won- I just have to improve on my final decision because we are facing catch up! FOOTBALL Bayern Munich v H Berlin - 1.22 - won last 3 -scoring 10 goals after 3 draws - unbeaten in 9 games and 4 draws amongst those. Playing bottom side at home who have lost all bar one away from home and only won one game ALL SEASON. 3pm Aston Villa v Stoke - 1.47 - a reasonable price for a team on form - unbeaten in their last 6 - Stoke seem to be draw experts away from home which ties in with the near 1/2 on Betfair 3pm - Rangers v Motherwell - 1.29 - unbeaten at home -only 2 draws - have scores 3 times in each of their last 3 games - 0-0 Away to Motherwell away is a slight concern and that was part of a 4 time draw sequence so has to be taken in that context - recent results ( 12 goals in 5 games) augur well Motherwell are draw specialists away from home ( drawn 5, and have drawn 0-0 away to Celtic and home to Rangers) Likely to be a tight enough game but a Rangers breakthrough should indicate a win, IF they make the breakthrough 5pm - Panathanaikos v Giannina - 1.25 - 2nd v 14th here - won all but one at home ( and that was a 1-1 draw) - Giannina have lost all but 2 of their away games - the 2 games were against bottom 5 sides - away side have lost 2-0 and 3-1 away from home to 3rd and 4th sides ( Pana are 2nd in the league) - 3 2-1's and one 1-0 mean that games are generally tight 530pm - Arsenal v Hull - 1.23 - emphatic home winners apart from Chelsea defeat. Hull away drew 1-1 with Man City and Wolves. Expectation is NOT for a repeat of Hull's exploits at the Emirates 645 - Feyenoord v Willem 11 - 1.31 home side - emphatic winners against those 10th and lower in Dutch league - have beaten Willem 11 away 3-2 - prompt towards goals perhaps given the tightness of the away tie 1.21 over 1.5 goals 9pm - Real Madrid v Zaragoza - 1.23 - 2nd v 18th of 20 - exemplary home record for Real - Zaragoza no wins away from home - lost 4 out of 5 against top 5 sides ( Real tonight) - never conceding less than 3 - looks good for Real at home this evening . Niggle regarding Ronaldo who may still be banned after his sending off - the guy is worth a goal or 2 he is that good. RUGBY UNION - Treviso v Northampton - 1.19 - realistic odds for the away side HORSERACING On such small margins yesterday - a short head between 3rd place and a winning bet. 1240 HAYDOCK BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 My Moment, 5/2 Quwetwo, 3/1 Bedlam Boy, 12/1 Al Co, 20/1 Tartan Snow, DIOMED VERDICT: Bedlam Boy and Quwetwo are respected but MY MOMENT has already made a good transition to chasing and can win again. First race of interest today and this should involve the 3 market leaders fighting for 2 places My Moment 1.61 to place, Quwetwo 1.71 to place 1250 LINGFIELD BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Stargaze, 5/2 Robust Wish, 15/2 Kai Mook, 12/1 American Agent, 14/1 Exceedthewildman, Minortransgression, 100/1 One Cool Slash. DIOMED VERDICT: Unless he has gone backwards since moving yards, STARGAZE ought to be hard to beat for all he is trying a new trip. The 2nd favourite is a non runner which should make life easier for Stargaze today. Now 1/2 and a "hard to beat " selection - only 2 places though - 2 debutants a slight concern as we do not know how good or otherwise 1.2 to place 225 NAVAN BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Medical Card, 3/1 West Cork Flyer, 5/1 Our Aodh, 6/1 Not Before Eight, 8/1 West Of The Border, 10/1 Rather Curious, 12/1 Seeability, 14/1 Forty Foot Tom, 20/1 Swift Accordian, Venture Wild, 25/1 Dead End. Medical card may be of interest here in this bumper for Nina Carberry and Noel Meade - 1.28 to place 230 LINGFIELD BETTING FORECAST: Evs Tranquil Tiger, 3/1 Saphira´s Fire, 7/1 Suits Me, 9/1 Plum Pudding, 10/1 Sky Crusader, 14/1 Settigano, 33/1 Rock Ascot, 50/1 Baylini. DIOMED VERDICT: Not a strong race as is the par for most Listed contests on AW and a good opportunity for TRANQUIL TIGER to follow up his recent C&D victory and post another win in this grade to his CV. The straight 8 runners herer for 3 places and 2 clear outsiders choulod reduce the competitive field 1.1.17 to place 6 runners now and still 3 places SHORTLIST All of the football matches today look strong. Bayern face the bottom side at home and have returned to some semblance of form. Arsenal have scored freely at home - do not expect a repeat of Hull's shock win Feyernoord and Willem 11's game should have goals. 1.21 over 1.5 goals means both teams are working for you. 1250 LINGFIELD - Stargaze is a " hard to beat " selection - 2nd favourite is a non runner which should make it far easier for Stargaze to place. 230 LINGFIELD - 6 runners and 3 places and Tranquil Tiger has a great chance here of placing in the first 3. This is a class 1 listed race so all horses are good.