12/1

Happy with the analysis yesterday and Brum won , and Spurs nailed one of the correct scores 2-0. It was difficult to determine whether we would get overs or unders in that match, and it teetered on the edge!
630pm - Fenerbahce v Konya Sekerspor - 1.11 home - Turkish National Cup and the market has been consistent and accurate in this competition when top flight meet lesser lights. I expected more goals from Trabzonspor yesterday, but they only won 2-0. So what is it to be today? The 4-1's of 2 days ago or a "just-do-enough" 2-0 of yesterday. The odds suggest 3/4 goals minimum. Fenerbahce have an away league match in 4 days time, so I am just trying to read the manager's mind whether their team will be changed today against weaker opposition.

Sun	10/01/10	CUP	Eskişehirspor	0 - 1	Fenerbahçe	View events	More info
Wed	13/01/10	CUP	Fenerbahçe	3 - 2	Tokatspor	View events	More info
Mon	18/01/10	CUP	Antalyaspor	4 - 3	Fenerbahçe	View events	More info
Thu	04/02/10	CUP	Fenerbahçe	3 - 0	Bursaspor	View events	More info
Thu	11/02/10	CUP	Bursaspor	3 - 1	Fenerbahçe	View events	More info
Wed	24/03/10	CUP	Fenerbahçe	2 - 0	Manisaspor	View events	More info
Tue	13/04/10	CUP	Manisaspor	1 - 1	Fenerbahçe	View events	More info
Wed	05/05/10	CUP	Trabzonspor	3 - 1	Fenerbahçe	View events	More info
Tue	09/11/10	CUP	Ankaragücü	4 - 2	Fenerbahçe	View events	More info
Tue	21/12/10	CUP	Fenerbahçe	2 - 3	Bucaspor	View events	More info
Thu	13/01/11	CUP	Yeni Malatyaspor	2 - 1	Fenerbahçe	View events	More info
Thu	27/01/11	CUP	Fenerbahçe	2 - 1	Gençlerbirliği

I thought I would look at Fenerbahce recently in the Cup and it seems they have a rather blase attitude to it, but one thing shines, and that is goals

Sun	18/01/09	CUP	Fenerbahçe	3 - 0	Eskişehirspor	View events	More info
Wed	28/01/09	CUP	Fenerbahçe	1 - 0	Bursaspor	View events	More info
Wed	04/03/09	CUP	Fenerbahçe	3 - 1	Sivasspor	View events	More info
Wed	13/05/09	CUP	Fenerbahçe	2 - 4	Beşiktaş	View events	More info
Wed	23/12/09	CUP	Fenerbahçe	3 - 0	Altay	View events	More info
Wed	13/01/10	CUP	Fenerbahçe	3 - 2	Tokatspor	View events	More info
Thu	04/02/10	CUP	Fenerbahçe	3 - 0	Bursaspor	View events	More info
Wed	24/03/10	CUP	Fenerbahçe	2 - 0	Manisaspor	View events	More info
Tue	21/12/10	CUP	Fenerbahçe	2 - 3	Bucaspor	View events	More info
Thu	27/01/11	CUP	Fenerbahçe	2 - 1	Gençlerbirliği

And at home, it seems infront of support, Fenerbahce take the matches seriously and score 2/3 consistently. This should instil some confidence in enhancing the poor match odds with a goals bet.
7pm - Ath Bilbao v Albacete - 1.31 home - coming off the back of 2 0-0's in all competitions, this is a sequence Bilbao are priced to end this evening, but it would do no harm to back 0-0 just in case they have a terminal attacking problem for this Spanish Cup match. It's 0-0 from the first leg so all to play for for both sides. A 1-0 scoreline either way is enough to take either side through.
This is 9th in the top flight v 5th in the 2nd tier. So 2 teams enjoying fruitful early campaigns.
Bilbao baggins have scored only 1 goal in last 3 matches played.

Thu	28/10/10	CDR	Alcorcón	0 - 1	Athletic Club	View events	More info
Wed	10/11/10	CDR	Athletic Club	2 - 0	Alcorcón	View events	More info
Tue	21/12/10	CDR	Barcelona	0 - 0	Athletic Club		More info
Wed	05/01/11	CDR	Athletic Club	1 - 1	Barcelona	View events	More info
Thu	08/12/11	CDR	Real Oviedo	0 - 1	Athletic Club	View events	More info
Wed	21/12/11	CDR	Athletic Club	1 - 0	Real Oviedo	View events	More info
Tue	03/01/12	CDR	Albacete	0 - 0	Athletic Club

And talk about keeping up this tightness in the Copa Del Rey. 3 1-0 scorelines, 2 0-0's and only once since 2010 have Bilbao scored more than 1 goal in a Copa match.
At home Bilbao are relatively strong in this competition historically.

Thu	15/01/09	CDR	Athletic Club	2 - 0	Osasuna	View events	More info
Thu	22/01/09	CDR	Athletic Club	0 - 0	Sporting Gijón		More info
Wed	04/03/09	CDR	Athletic Club	3 - 0	Sevilla	View events	More info
Wed	13/05/09	CDR	Athletic Club	1 - 4	Barcelona	View events	More info
Wed	11/11/09	CDR	Athletic Club	2 - 2	Rayo Vallecano	View events	More info
Wed	10/11/10	CDR	Athletic Club	2 - 0	Alcorcón	View events	More info
Wed	05/01/11	CDR	Athletic Club	1 - 1	Barcelona	View events	More info
Wed	21/12/11	CDR	Athletic Club	1 - 0	Real Oviedo

Only losing recently to Barcelona. Against lesser lights, Bilbao seem to be able to score at least 2 goals.
Albacete have kept a tight ship in recent matches overall

Sun	04/12/11	SEB	Albacete	2 - 2	Sporting Gijón II	View events	More info
Thu	08/12/11	CDR	Albacete	2 - 1	Atlético Madrid	View events	More info
Sun	11/12/11	SEB	Conquense	0 - 1	Albacete	View events	More info
Sun	18/12/11	SEB	La Roda	1 - 3	Albacete	View events	More info
Wed	21/12/11	CDR	Atlético Madrid	0 - 1	Albacete	View events	More info
Tue	03/01/12	CDR	Albacete	0 - 0	Athletic Club		More info
Sun	08/01/12	SEB	Albacete	2 - 0	Coruxo

and only once recently did they concede more than 1 goal and that ended as a draw. The scalp of Ath Madrid home and away must instil some confidence in a Roy of the Rovers style Cup run. But will this impinge on possible promotion hopes as they are 5th in their league.

Wed	07/09/11	CDR	Albacete	1 - 0	Real Jaén	View events	More info
Wed	12/10/11	CDR	Albacete	1 - 0	Deportivo Alavés	View events	More info
Thu	08/12/11	CDR	Albacete	2 - 1	Atlético Madrid	View events	More info
Wed	21/12/11	CDR	Atlético Madrid	0 - 1	Albacete	View events	More info
Tue	03/01/12	CDR	Albacete	0 - 0	Athletic Club

The 2011 Cup Run has been an exercise in strong defending with 3 1-0 wins and a 0-0 v today's opponents.
This makes the 1.31 a tad short for Bilbao, with the possibility that we will see Albacete shut up shop and hope for a 0-1 as they did v Ath Madrid.
History hints at Bilbao having an ability to score 2 at least against lower opposition, but the whole research points continuously to a tight match. Maybe unders and a 0-0 back to start with, and then revert to overs at half time if still 0-0? I would conjecture with 2-0, 0-1, 0-0 as possible scorelines in what is, admittedly, a tough match to call where I don't see Bilbao as all out 1.31 favourites.
8pm - Napoli v Cesena - 1,32 home - Udinese losing 1-2 yesterday at home in the Cup should signal this may not be as smooth as the odds suggest.These are both Seria A sides, Napoli are 6th and Cesena 19th. Napoli have a Seria A match in 4 days time, cesena in 3 days time. Surely Cesena want to fight to stave off relegation rather than have a distracting Cup run. And with their more important match in 3 days time in the league, there is a suggestion they may rest players. I do not know , I am just thinking aloud and recounting what I would do if manager of a side looking doomed for relegation from the top flight. Napoli are unbeaten in the cup since 2006, and have only lost once at home in the Cup since August 2005. They lost out last match, which was 0-0, to Inter in extra time. This infers that NApoli seem "up for the Cup".
Cesena have only played 3 away, and not recently, in the Cup

Fri	05/08/05	COI	Spezia	0 - 1E	Cesena		More info
Fri	18/08/06	COI	Lucchese	0 - 1E	Cesena		More info
Wed	15/08/07	COI	Napoli	4 - 0	Cesena		More info
Sun	17/08/08	COI	Salerno	3 - 1	Cesena

Is that 4-0 defeat to today's opponents in 2007 ominous? Or will they set out as per the 0-0, then going through 0-1 in extra time?
I would think, looking at this, that Napoli seem to like a Cup run, so the odds seem about right.As to scoring, well we might expect more goals if we assume Cesena will field a weakened side, with a Seria A match in only 3 days time.
9pm - Osasuna v Barcelona - 1.41 away - the Copa Del Rey. I was going to say that if this was a League Match , Barca must be a confident bet, what with Real threatening to open a gap at the top.Team news as ever all important for Barcelona in the Cup.Osasuna have not scored in last 5 head to heads and Barca lead 4-0 from the first leg. This makes this match dangerous as Barca can still lose 3-0 tonight and still go through.
Barca have a Primera League match on Sunday, 3 days time, so expect changes to the team tonight and that 1.41 looks, logically  layable with such a strong lead, and being away from home, with a likely 2nd string team. The concern is Osasuna's inability to score against Barca in last 5 head to heads.
A match to avoid or to take a speculative contrary view.